L.A. listing prices now down $150K from peak

Median listing prices in Los Angeles County dropped by another $990 over the past week, according to Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listings, and have now fallen $150,000, or 26%, from their April 2006 peak.

Numbers: Housing tracker reports median listing prices fell to $429,000 from $429,990, marking a decline of 20.4% over the past year. That 20.4% rate of annual decline marks the highest rate of decline in this housing cycle. Inventory of homes and condos for sale dropped by more than 300 units, to 45,164, and is pacing 7.4% ahead of year-ago levels.

Analysis: A decline in the median sales, or listing, price doesn't necessarily mean the value of a typical home has declined by the same amount. It suggests some decline in overall values, but also that the market of listings and sales is increasingly dominated by cheaper homes. This is the foreclosure factor: More and more homes on the market are cheaper, foreclosed homes.

Date              Median listing price                    Inventory

4/06               $579,666                                      27,251
4/07               $545,000                                      35,489
5/07               $545,000                                      38,297
6/07               $540,000                                      40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07               $535,000                                      42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07               $529,000                                      44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07               $520,000                                      46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07             $510,000                                      46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07             $499,900                                      46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07             $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)      43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08               $479,900 (down 12.6%)            40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08               $475,000 (down 13.5%)            43,625 (Up 38.3%)
3/08               $464,900 (down 15.5%)            42,098 (Up 31.4%)
4/08               $450,000 (down 17.4%)            42,430 (up 16.7%)
5/08               $449,900 (down 17.4%)            42,532 (up 11.1%)
6/02/08         $446,500 (down 17.3%)            42,458 (up 4.9%)
6/09/08         $440,000 (down 18.5%)            42,398 (up 4.0%)
6/23/08         $429,990 (down 20.2%)            45,493 (up 8.2%)
6/30/08         $429,000 (down 20.4%)            45,164 (up 7.4%)

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.

Comments

[I live in LA, too]

Sheila,

The FOM story has become quite a big deal, and not just in conservative publications -- even CNN has been covering it. So, please don't be too hard on Peter. He's allowed to convey reason once in a while.

[JPG]

Luka,

If you didn't take out a "funny money" loan, then why are you "under water"? I assume you have a fixed-rate mortgage (because I would consider pretty much anything else a "funny money" loan). Unless you've lost your job or had some other financial troubles or a job change that has forced you to sell (and if that's the case, I'm genuinely sorry and you can disregard this comment), you should still be able to afford your payments. So your house has gone down in value since you bought it. Great, get it re-appraised in a few months after it's gone down more and then petition the state for a reassessment of your property taxes. Look, you've saved money already.

Perhaps you owe more than the house is worth? Once again, do you need to sell it anytime soon? No? Then why do you really care as long as you can afford the payments? Were you planning on using your equity as an ATM? Am I missing something here?

[Mark_Pasadena]

Lansner at the OC Register does a better job at reporting the price declines. He reports it in terms of the 25, 50 and 75th percentiles, instead of making a statement that helps to keep those with homes in the 75th percentile feeling like they're immune.

from Lansner's OC Register blog:

http://tinyurl.com/4c7lbb

"HousingTracker’s June data suggests that sellers of the higher-priced O.C. homes may have been a bit too aggressive. Why?

* After four months of rising pricing for the 75th percentile — that’s the median of the top half of properties listed for sale — June averaged out at $828,800, or 1.9% below May.
* That’s the first drop since January, leaving the upper crust’s pricing 7.8% below a year ago.

The deep-discounting message has long sunk into sellers of more affordable O.C. housing …

* June market the 14th straight month the median asking price for the 25th percentile (median of the lower half) fell.
* Last month it came in at $354,960 or 4.3% below May (largest monthly percentage decline on this 14-month downward trend.)
* That adds up to a 28.7% drop vs. a year ago.

As for the overall O.C. median (yes, the 50th percentile), in June it fell for the 14th straight month, too — down 2.8% — and if off 20.2% from June ‘07. Inventory of homes for sale at all price points, by Housing Tracker’s math, was below the year ago level for the second consecutive month.

Other pricing trends …"

[Scott McIntosh]

To DWR:

First off, I apologize if I mispelled a word on a blog post. It was midnight and my eyes were half shut when I was typing. So, if you feel the need to waste your time to point that out, you should go find a hobby.

To Yourkillingmelarry:

Thanks for your respectful post. You make very good points that contribute to the conversation. What you say is very possible and we could definitely be in for a rough ride in those more premium area. I only try to point out the facts in my blog on what going on currently. The minute I begin to feel like im forecasting the future, I try to stop. I let the true professionals that do that for a living do it.

http://www.thewestwoodblog.com

[jag]

Luka, I don't mean to tear you apart because of your home purchase, but I have to side with JPG. I believe most bloggers on this site are against, not homeowners like yourself, but inflated prices, greedy RE agents and banks.

[the problemwithcaring]

Thanks, Sheila. I'll leave it to others to decide who is corrupt. But swift-boated? Get real....A United States senator got on the freaking phone with Mozilo to talk about a loan. Not just any loan, HIS loan. Are you saying Conrad is so stupid he did not understand the purpose of such a conversation?....

Posted by: peteviles |

LOL! I think what sheila was saying is that, at this point, we really have no idea what those Senators knew or didn't know because we don't know what they talked about or why, and blustering and heavy-handed presumptions of guilt by association are both dangerous and unenlightening. Just her opinion, but wow, I think she expressed it in a way that hit a huge nerve...

Definition of Swiftboating: Used to describe political tactics that are essentially synonymous with a smear campaign; "smear" is a metaphor for activity that can harm an individual or group's reputation by conflation with a stigmatized group.

I think if you keep throwing around the name ANGELO MOZILO, it may serve to diffuse some of sheila's "un-real" criticism.

(Please note: Also, this isn't meant to be critical of you or this blog in anyway- Go LA Times!)

[puckhead]

Eric,

Two examples of people who would buy in this market;

1) The buyer who has a lot of equity in their current house and would like to move to another house for whatever reason, ie better schools, larger house etc. If the price of the new house goes down, the price of the current house also goes down so in the end, its roughly a wash. Selling the current house and waiting for prices to fall may not be practical because of the large capital gain the seller would have to pay and it may not be practical to move with a large family and small kids in the short term.

2) The buyer who has been searching for a long time and plans to stay there for a long time. From past experience, buying a house is easy, FINDING the RIGHT house is like looking for needle in a haystack. There are a lot of houses on the market but finding one that fits your family is hard. I’m looking for another house in a certain location and I’m having a hard time finding one that fits my needs and budget If I can find one and the payments meet my budget, I would be all over it even knowing that the house will probably see some downside in price. Basically, I’m less concern with short term flux in prices than the long term living situation

[Luka]

JPG, Yes, a fixed loan with a sizable down payment but still our house is valued over 130K less now than when we bought (and no, we aren't in the inland empire either, Lancaster or any other hell hole).

This isn't about using our house as an ATM or being a moron as you suggest but I'm trying to say that there are a lot of people in these comments section who act as if the only people hurt by this downturn are morons or people who sought to screw the system and are getting their due. That's just not true.

[Theron]

I second JPG on the Luka/JPG sub-thread. While there is always a certain amount of ranting on any blog the point is well made that no rational buyer should be too shocked/upset about the downturn.

According to traditional ideas about home buying you should only buy when you intend to stay put for several years minimum. You should only take out a mortgage you can happily afford during that time. While its no fun seeing the paper value decline on any "asset" you shouldn't even be paying attention to the month to month paper value. The same is true of a retirement account. Who cares what happens in any given year when you're in for the long term?

[Cal]

Luka,

When I'm running analysis of neighborhoods I see 3 distinct groups:

1) People who bought 6+ years ago with their original mortgage (or a refi around ~2003 for what I assume was a lower rate).

2) People who bought whenever, was able to have equity during the boom, multiple mortgages, cashing out.

3) Bought during the boom only purchase mortgages on the deed.

Both groups 2 and 3 are going to feel a lot of pain. Group 3 still participated in the boom (knowingly or not) and will have to deal with that. Buying a house is a big decision and the thought had to be there that the house could lose value and your tolerance for risk. If that wasn't there or it was thought of but dismissed, then a poor decision was made. There are going to be a lot of people hurt by the bubble popping just as there was by the bubble inflating, it doesn't stop it from happening it is just reality.

p.s. There is a fourth group I didn't talk about, mostly concentrated in the move up market. Large down payments (i assume from a previous home) bought during the boom years things are different for them assuming their mortgage is manageable to begin with. They'll see a lot of equity disapear but are probably going to be ok.

[E]

Luka...

You are just collateral damage from the housing ponzi scheme.

Sorry but that's life.

Maybe you should have questioned why houses cost so much when you purchased. So, you may not be a moron, fraudster or HELOC whore but you certainly didn't use any critical thinking skills and we don't feel sorry for you just like homeowners didn't feel sorry for renters over the last few years.

Deal with it.

[LA]

Realtard, idiot, moron, stupid, HELOC whore... did I miss any others? Can we now move on to having an actual discourse without name-calling? Seems to me that people should be able to express differing opinions without insulting each other. Unless, of course, there is a lack of "critical thinking skills" on the part of the name caller.

I'm just sayin!

[puckhead]

Yes Eazy E, pat yourself on the back because you are soooooooooooooooooooooo smart. Tell us, did you buy at the bottom of the last bubble and sell at the top? No, I guess your “critical thinking” skills deserted you that time. Let’s face it, you’re just as obnoxious as the know it alls RE experts who crowed about how much paper gain they had prior to the bust.

Luka, not a whole lot you can do right know. The decision's been made. If you like the house and can afford the payments, in the end that's all that matters.

[sheila]

Peter says:

"Let me ask you: do you call up Ken Lewis to get a new checking account at Bank of America? Do you call up Bog Iger to get tickets to Disneyland?"

Uh, you need to spend a little more time with EXTREMELY wealthy and powerful people if you think they don't all call each other up when they want things. Having spent, sadly, a disproportionate amount of my life around high-powered Hollywood types, I can promise you that yes, they call Bob Iger to get tickets to Disneyland. Dealing with minions is beneath their images of themselves.

The Johnson "referral" was exactly why Mozilo does that stuff. He wants to be the "go-to" guy for the rich, famous and powerful, which makes them all pathetic, but we already knew that. There is a difference , though, between a sort of vague entitlement mentality and outright bribery. These are guys who are used to BIG bribes - Jack Abramoff/Tom DeLay stuff. They are hardly gonna risk their careers for these scraps off Mozilo's table.

Besides, if you weren't swift-boating, then how come you didn't manage to report that 60% of Countrywide's $1.3 million in political donations in the past year has gone to REPUBLICANS? John McCain of the Keating Five didn't pay his property taxes for the last 4 years, but you hammer Laura Richardson for her sloppiness?

So, there it is. I got real.

[anonymous]

150 drop in median list price? That will be so quaint by August. And no, Mr. Renter, don't buy right now. Why would you do that to yourself? There will be another 100K drop in median list price before we sing Auld Lang Syne this year. And yes, option arm resets til 2011 suggest this is just the beginning. Even if RE turns around in 2009, you will be underwater on your mortgage for 5 years from the loss you take between 4th of July and Christmas. Read mish, minyanville, patrick.net, so cal real estate bubble, heck, even Newsweek can tell you the worst is yet to come. If you don't believe those guys, read what Buffett & Soros have to say. The blog likes to stand by price returns to 2001 levels adjusted for inflation - but put the whole storm together and it's 1929 all over again. You'll see '95/'96 levels. And no. Not adjusted for inflation. Trouble is, you'll see these prices in 2015 when we hit bottom. Hope Puck wasn't planning on selling that $2m 4+3 South Pas craftsman any time soon. (Just kidding puckie - we know you're loaded & don't need the money).

[E]

Keep assuming Puckhead.

Then again...I never thought hockey fans were very intelligent.

You know...kind of like UFC fans or WWF fans.

BTW...

Bought 12/2001...sold 08/2005...different state however.

Still looking but not worried about "finding the bottom".

P.S. quit yammering about your BMW...it's just a car.

[E]

Oh...and BTW Puck...another tidbit of info for you.

My 80 year old father sold his house in 07 and I've been looking constantly for his next place. He is currently renting as he looked and just like you say...there may be quite a bit of inventory out there but not much that interested my Father until just recently. He's working with the same Realtor that sold his house (for a realistic price when other comparable houses in the neighborhood are listed nearly 50% higher) The couple places that he is looking at still aren't worth what they are asking but they are *much* closer in line with where they should be and he may put an offer in soon. I'm just the guy that finds him the places that I feel might work.

Will the homes/condos that I've found go down in value?
I feel that they will.

Probably...but it's a home rather than an investment and when we run the numbers it pencils out quite nicely. Plus, my dad was able to get just about peak value for his house so there really is no need to get greedy. Especially when he is downsizing and still gets to pay under 3k annualy for property taxes considering he purchased his home back in 1972.

For myself...I'm haven't even decided where I want to live yet as I'm not constrained by a job or family. I could just as easily move to the Carribean...although I spent a few months there and "Island Fever" actually does start to set in so I've crossed that off my short list.

Finally...with regards to all the people that come in here whining. I fully expected that. From Heloc Credit Junkies to Option ARM holders to Speculators and everybody else. I don't want to hear it. I'm not "happy" about their situation and as far as I am concerned, let congress turn on the printing presses in order to offer some sort of debt forgiveness for people such as Luka. I've already hedged myself with gold.

I'm not happy about what is happening in general but I wasn't happy about it when I saw how the Neg-Am loans were pushed like crazy on every internet site with the dancing fools in 2004 as I knew it would end badly. That is why I sold my house in 2005 because I knew that I'd own it forever if I hadn't. The house was in Columbia, MO so I didn't see the kinds of profits that the speculators in California saw and much of my profits were derived from sweat equity. I'm still surprised that it sold for 57% more than I paid for it.

And If you think I'm yanking your chain...I'll give Peter a call and give him all the info so that it can be verified. I'll give him any info he wants. I'm just waiting for the house to show up on the Realestalker.

So...I'm not "shorting my house" nor is my father. Everybody has a different situation.

I'd still recommend that most people wait to buy (unlike my father) as they didn't get the opportunity to sell a 3M+ fixer upper and walk away with well over 3M after all the cap gains and commissions. Plus...they aren't paying with cash. I feel that makes the equation different.

Who knows...maybe my dad could be the next installment for Pete's "Who's buying the $1M+ houses/condos" these days. Kind of like Millas deal.

Think he can qualify for some free money like Milla did?

[puckhead]

Easy E,

You are about as clueless about puck fans as you are clueless about how smart you are. Before wifey started popping out kids I had Kings season tickets. I'm a CPA/MBA, the guy on my right was a lawyer, the guy on my left was a VP at Disney. Yeah, we're all a bunch of high school dropouts. I hope my kids never want to play hockey because I almost bankrupted my father with $ spent on rink time, equipment and traveling teams. Hockey ain't a cheap sport bud. Basically, your ideas about hockey fans are about as clueless as about people that live in nice neighborhoods. You have no idea about either one.

[loveMEsomeME]

Sheila go vent on the Huffington Post. Did you just say the we should not judge the dems but then throw McCain under the bus for an unrelated story with no legs. So if they are conservative bury them. But if liberal let us wait and see. So Sheila enjoy the ride on the swiftboat S.S. Denial. Politicians should be held to a higher standard. And for you to imply because Hollywood types do it then politicians can is short sided. Senators, congressmen, and judges impact the law of the land. They need to be above reproach no matter which party they belong to. When are we gonna stop buying the hype of either party and deal with the reality of those individuals in which we have entrusted our nations future.

[NevadaGal]

Sheila,

You can make all the excuses for the corrupt you want. but Peter's posts are still giving you a good slap across your reasoning. Oh, I forgot, if your so well connected to the rich and powerful...why are you going beneath yourself to post to the average Jane and Joe on this blog??