The Zillow 'flood map': Where L.A. homeowners are under water

I love this new "negative equity" map from Zillow -- instead of a "heat map," you can call this a "flood map" -- the dark red areas are where the most homeowners are under water, according to Zillow's updated analysis of L.A. home values in the first quater.

Key, if you can't read it:

--Darkest red indicates areas where more than 71% of those who bought between 2005 and 2008 are now under water -- that is, they owe more than their home is currently worth.
--Next-darkest red: 62% to 71% under water
--White: Less than 32% are under water

More to come on the Zillow report, which came out earlier this week.
Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.

Comments

[Laker]

I think Zillow are a little bit behind the market. They need to run the number for people who bought in 2004 and on. (not 2005). Currently all the dark red areas are selling for 2003-2004 price levels. Give it another 3-6 months, all LA area will become purple....
But hey, the house passed the foreclosure bill, so let the tax payers foot the bill to keep all the underwater loan owners in their houses.

Also, I think it would be very interesting to get a "down payment" map of LA. That is for the buyers of 2005-2008, what was the actual CASH down payment when they bought the house - my bet is BLACK Map. All "downs" for the (1st) mortgage were 2nd mortgages...

[shockg]

"I love this new "negative equity" map from Zillow -- instead of a "heat map," you can call this a "flood map" -- the dark red areas are where the most homeowners are under water, according to Zillow's updated analysis of L.A. home values in the first ."

Peter, Most of the homeowners are not underwater. Your statement is misleading. Most homeowners who bought in BAD AREAS BETWEEN 2005-2008 are underwater. This is a small fraction of the overall homeowners. Most of whom are not underwater. I know many here are cheering for people to lose their homes to serve their own interests but it won't happen on the scale you all are desperately praying for.

[Valley Observer]

The red areas contain a lot of vacant homes, which makes me wonder why the Tejon Ranch development is necessary.

I know, the answer is, "To make a lot of money for the landowners." That's the history of SoCal in a nutshell. The final legacy of Miller and Lux is going to be unrelated to cattle, dreadful congestion on I5 unless by some miracle they must build a duplicate as a condition of the approval. And all of us, the entire local economy and population, will pay the price in congestion; the profit will go only to Tejon Ranch. I wonder how popular houses there will be when gas is $10 a gallon. Sorry this is off on a tangent.

[Arti]

West LA and Santa Monica look untouched here.

[E]

Like a slow spreading cancer.

Give it time.

It'll make it's way to the internal organs.

[tealeaf]

shockg,

The realists on this blog know it's not everyone losing their home. In some areas, it's a low percentage. Sure, it is the highest level on record - but I will agree it is a low number.

HOWEVER:
This whole thing happens on the margin. It went up that way and it is going down that way.

It takes a few comps to justify direction. And right now, the comps are in distress.

Look at the leading indicators, dude! It ain't going your way !!

[pugtv]

Dear Shock "angry blogger" G,

For once at least, can you say something useful? Your angry rants are a waste of blog space.

[Laker]

tealeaf,
shockg is not listening or trying to listen. He knows there was no bubble, and price are not declining. We are not trying to convince him, but just asking him to open his eyes and face reality.
Also, for example upon inspection of houses bought in 2005, 2006, 2007; ALL buyers in woodland hills, Tarzana are under water.
I actually saw a nice house in woodland hills 1700 sf on 17,000 flat lot in woodland hills to go 17% less than it sold in 2005. And guess what, the poor seller actually put 20% down payment...so it was not a short sale by definition as the bank got his loan fully paid but the seller lost $135,000 and that is before Realtor fees...(5% I think so, he lost about $175,000 from his $900,000 purchase price in 2005.
And this house was not a dump, it was in very nice condition. So officially this seller was not underwater...but practically he sure was. (lost his own cash instead of bank loss) House sold at 2004 level, and that was not a foreclosure...

[Miami Meltdown]

Peter, how do I find this on Zillow's website? I would like to see if they have one for Miami. thanks.

[Jazzman]

Phew! That is phenomenal! Chino Hills doesn't surprise me, but West Covina does. That large red area to the north west looks sparsley populated on a google map, apart from the lower section, which must be the San Fernando valley area.

[Jazzman]

The Zillow home appreciation map is equally interesting. There are some surprises there too. Newport Beach and Laguna Beach (if the map is accurate) both showing the highest declines at 20%. This isn't the case if asking prices and foreclosures have anything to do with it.

[JohnnyB]

Nice map view... keep these map overviews coming! They provide such an improved way to absorb raw data tied to geography in an easy to interpret, visual manner.

shockg; ...This is a small blah of the overall blah blah...

Right, not relevant at all.

I'm sure the millions of LA HELOC’s and refi's leading to negative equity situations post bubble-burst - and displayed in a map overlay such as this - would also be a small blah in the overall blah blah...

[Spencer Rascoff]

@MiamiMeltdown --
You can find this data on Zillow by doing this:
1. Goto www.zillow.com
2. click on "Quarterly Reports" on the bottom of the page
3. Use the scroll bar on the left to scroll to Miami
4. Click on the graph icon (the one with the red line) for Miami. (If you click on the excel icon, you'll get the data for Miami in excel.)
5. That will take you to this page:
http://www.zillow.com/quarterlies/QuarterlyThumbs.
htm?msa=Miami+Fort+Lauderdale+Miami+Beach+FL

More specifically, here's the Miami negative equity page:
http://www.zillow.com/static/images/quarterlies/2008-Q1/
Negative-Equity-Miami-FL.jpg

We have this for 160 cities around the country.

- Spencer (from Zillow)

[Nancy]

shockg,

What are you calling bad areas? I sense a negative-equity suffering Westside-dwelling elitist on this blog.

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Flood, what flood?

Most people laughed at Noah too, but he was the one safely up there in one of the white areas, like the Santa Monica or San Gabriel mountains.

And not surprisingly, there were no flippers on that ark.

As sad as the Flood, with the washing away of the wicked speculators and their greed, the world could begin anew. And that's why we need the government to stop interfering with the creative destruction that is the wrath of the gods of Free Market Capitalism.

I want to say something more about the Hindu god of destruction, Shiva, but I think I will stop here. Gold is having a reversal day. I have to go and check that out. Maybe time to add more gold to my existing stockpile of cowrie shells.

[MiamiMeltdown]

Thank you very much.

[Eric]

The damn westside is (so far) mostly immune to this. Guess it's the old Golden Rule at work.