Listing prices and inventory flat

Median listing prices in greater L.A. were unchanged over the last week, and inventory was essentially flat as well, continuing a monthlong trend toward stability in the listings market, according to Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listings.

Numbers: The median listing price held steady at $449,000, a decline of 16.9% from year-ago levels. Inventory of for-sale homes and condos decreased by 14 listings, to 42,518, which marks an increase of 6.5% over year-ago levels.

Date               Median listing price                      Inventory

4/06               $579,666                                      27,251
4/07               $545,000                                      35,489
5/07               $545,000                                     38,297
6/07               $540,000                                      40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07               $535,000                                      42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07               $529,000                                      44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07               $520,000                                      46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07             $510,000                                      46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07             $499,900                                      46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07             $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)        43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08               $479,900 (down 12.6%)               40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08               $475,000 (down 13.5%)               43,625 (Up 38.3%)
3/08               $464,900 (down 15.5%)               42,098 (Up 31.4%)
4/08               $450,000 (down 17.4%)               42,430 (up 16.7%)
5/5/08            $450,000 (down 17.4%)            42,647 (up 13.7%)
5/12/08          $449,900 (down 17.4%)            42,532 (up 11.1%)
5/19/08          $449,000 (down 17.6%)             42,532 (up 8.8%)
5/26/08          $449,000 (down 16.9%)             42,518 (up 6.5%)

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com

Comments

[Danny]

What can you say, other than that we all expect sales and maybe even prices to increase this summer? But the fall and winter will be mighty ugly.

[shockg]

Yep, The housing crash is slowly losing steam.

Dear Readers, Below you will find endless ranting by housing speculator Laker and his buddies as to why you should dismiss the data. This is nothing more than damage control.

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Well, I hope quoting Oliver Wendell Holmes is not ranting and he said, 'It's not how fast you're going, but what direction that is important,' or something like that.

So, what direction is housing going? Sure, from 5/12/08 to now, it is only down $900. But Judge Holmes will tell you the fact that it's down is the only important thing here.

[Rob Dawg]

Listing Price 05/08 is more of wishing price than an indication of the market that is determined by one thing and one thing only; Closing sales price. My neighbor has his home listed for $5m or about 4x likely sales value. Like I said, wishing price.

[image009]

I have no doubt at this point that we are going back to at least 1998 prices in all areas. (Yes, even the precious high-end.) We are still about 50-60% over-priced in the high end markets. Don’t worry, these will drop too. Just check what the price was on a property in 1997-98. That’s about what it will be worth at the bottom sometime in the next 2-3 years.

[pugtv]

ShockG,

Put your money where his mouth is. Invest in the Los Angeles Futures market. There's a lot of people that's willing to buy your short.

I doubt you'd show up though ... I sense your mouth is loud but your cojones are tiny.

[Laker]

pugtv,
Shockg's cojones do not exist. He is a poor speculator that is trying all he can to damage control. Shockg is about to lose his shorts, all his agenda is attacking the common sense. Heck, he still denies that there was a RE bubble.... He thinks that he can do something to change the market. I don't think any individual here can. (Even Helicopter Ben can't)

The data is great, the price is DOWN YoY16.9%, and inventory is UP YoY 6.5%
When Price will be UP YoY or/and inventory will be Down YoY, let me know.

[Nelcisco]

Data by real estates own is skewed, they're the most in denial to what's really happening.
A seasoned realtor understands what it takes for financing, most realtors that I've dealt with do not, they'll say things like "1st time ever, lots of inventory, prices low, interest rates low at the same time", they don't know it really takes alot of $ to buy a house or they want to believe that a person making 30k a yr can still buy 450k going stated, 80/20 financing with a 500 fico. They need to get their heads out of the sand.

By the way, I'm still holding auditions for my band for the LO's and RE agents that are going broke by this market

[Pasadena]

Yeah and my offers on all those houses will be flat as well, a flat NO thanks. Until my top 1% income can buy me a at least top 10% house, I'm not buying.

[shockg]

laker, you only see what you want to see. Its funny how you ignore the recent trends and quote YOY numbers like its scripture in the bible. You are creey. Like a cult ot something. News flash, we had a credit crisis in August. YOY analysis is only one measure and its skewed by what happened in August.

[tealeaf]

shockg: where will all the buyers for these homes come from? I mean the ones that make over $200k with at least 20% in savings?

damage control?

We still have a year or so of inventory !

I ask again: where will the buyers come from? the credit is still not there, not in large numbers.

[loveMEsomeME]

shockg,
Wasn't the credit crisis what happened the last several years prior to August. August was the beginning of the correction. It is funny that the stupid loans given out prior to August you think made a good market. But aren't those loans what caused your "credit crisis". Shockg, you cannot just look at current trends without putting them in context. And this time last year most people still had not realized we were falling down the rabbit hole. But enjoy your summer of flat prices and when the fall comes talk to someone from the military and ask them what BOHICA means because it will describe the housing market.

[Tiny Tim]

I agree with TeaLeaf.

Months of Inventory is a critical measure, and I'd like to see Peter regularly speak to this.

A year of inventory cannot be a sign of impending recovery.

[shockg]

tealeaf, your "who can afford a home at these prices" and "there are no buyers" is total BS. First-timers who have been saving and cleaning up their credit are buying today. Just ask Milla and NF. These two don't make an ungoldly amount of money and they found a way to make it work. Just like the many others who are jumping off the fence. The people buying today don't need immediate equity like many here do. They are buying a home, not an investment. happy flipping.

[pugtv]

Shock "Angry Blogger" G,

CME prices the LA home market at 154 on Nov 2010. The Mar 2008 figure was 207. That's an implied 25% drop in home value over 2.5 years.

If you think the market won't drop by 25% and you are right, you can make a ton of money. Are you willing to back up your angry rants with real money?

[shockg]

Pugtv, I guess both you and CME have a crystal ball. it's amazing how you have figured out how to beat the market yet you spend all your time selling your fear and lies on bubble blogs.

[Laker]

shockg wrote: "...News flash, we had a credit crisis in August...."
Shockg,
are you saying that there was a problem to buy a house in August , but now, there is no problem as banks went back to the lending standards that were back in July 2007 ???
I agree with some here that argue that home prices are 1st related to financing, 2nd to income, 3rd to rents. Pretty much that order.
The proof for that is the huge 300% appreciation aka bubble that we have seen from 2000 to 2007. Now, today loose financing is not available, Option ARMS are gone, 520 FICO can't buy, 80/20 are gone, down payments are needed, stated income is gone, 2nd mortgages on stated are gone....
We are back at income and rents as the main prices determination forces.
What say you?

[pugtv]

ShockG,

This isn't about me and my beliefs. It's about you backing up your rants. Stop changing the subject.

Are you going to back up your rants with money?

[shockg]

"Shockg,
are you saying that there was a problem to buy a house in August , but now, there is no problem as banks went back to the lending standards that were back in July 2007 "

I shoulda known you were going yo twist my words around and make your own false assumptions. Obviously reading comprehension isn't your strong point. Laker,you will see what you want to see but remember that no matter how much time and energy you spend pushing your cause, you will have nill effect on the markets.

[Laker]

shockg,
I'm not trying to effect the markets. (i wish i could)
But YOU ARE trying to effect....
As others are saying, please stop ranting and provide numbers, figures, addresses,--- FACTS please! Otherwise STFU

[pugtv]

ShockG,

If you believe the CME market is so off from your personal prediction, you can make a lot of money off them. It's also an opportunity for you to show the doom and gloomers they are wrong. How about it?

Or is it the case you don't believe in what you've been ranting? If so, I agree with Laker. STFU =)

ok, that was a bit harsh ... how about just stop ranting on the subject =)