L.A. home prices down 19.4%, back to March '05 levels

More on today's DataQuick report on April home sales in Southern California: Median sales prices in Los Angeles have fallen 20.9% from peak levels, 19.4% over the past year, and have now rolled back to March 2005 levels, according to DataQuick's analysis.

The level of 12-month trailing sales in the L.A. market (the column at right below) continues to plummet, and is now running 40% below year-ago levels. Trailing 12-month sales provided a good overview of market activity;

Month    L.A. median sales price       y/y change       12-month L.A. sales total

June 04  $414,000                        32.3%                127,027
Jan. 07   $520,000                        6.0%                 108,755
Feb 07    $528,000                        8.0%                 107,966
Mar 07    $540,000                        6.0%                 105,514
Apr 07    $540,000                        6.0%                 103,450
May 07   $550,000                        7.0%                  100,160
Jun 07    $545,000                        5.0%                   96,513
Jul 07    $547,500                        5.0%                    94,478
Aug 07  $550,000                        6.0%                    90,985
Sept 07 $525,000                         1.2%                    86,610
Oct 07  $500,000                         -3.8%                   82,527
Nov 07  $499,000                         -3.5%                  78,712
Dec 07 $470,000                        -10.5%                  74,663
Jan 08 $458,000                         -11.9%                 71,256
Feb 08 $460,000                       -12.9%                  68,424
Mar 08 $440,000                       -18.5%                  64,334
Apr 08  $435,000                      -19.4%                  62,125

Note: June 2004 stats are added to show peak levels of 12-month L.A. sales and y/y change in median sales prices.
Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com

Comments

[Chuck W]

It's almost possible to imagine a day in the future when a simple guy who makes 200 grand a year could afford a 2 bedroom house on the Westside. Almost.

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

It's like back to the future when the future is the past, or as the Bard said, 'Past is prologue.'

This is from yesterday's LATimes piece, 'Steep Drop In Home Prices May Help Economy:'

When it comes to housing, the optimists are those who see the near free fall in home prices as encouraging: It may at least shorten the economic agony.

"Because the prices are going down so fast, we'll be hitting the stabilization point sooner," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Assn. of Realtors.

There you have: Good to have the prices good. Faster the better. We will get there sooner.

Is that mean?

[pugtv]

ShockG,

You mentioned prices are going to fall "a bit" more. How about giving more clarity to your definition of "a bit"? 5%? 10%? 15%? 20%? Over how long? 1 yr? 2 yrs? 3 yrs?

If you think 5% over 2 years and you end up being right, then you can legitimately tell all the doom and gloom bloggers that they are full of it.

If you're unwilling to commit to any forecast, then I think you've lost credibility with the people you are trying to influence.

[Laker]

Peter wrote: "....L.A. home prices down 19.4%, back to March '05 levels..."

Peter, I don't know what the LA home price means, but bottom line is the many areas like the SFV is selling at January 2004 prices TODAY. I guess westside is "selling" in late 2005 prices, while lancaster is selling in 2002 prices...so some average/mean number is $435,000 that "represents" March 2005 prices.
I like to contribute knowledge where i have it, so in the good parts of the SFV (not pacoima or sylmar but more like Tarzana, Woodland Hills) properties are now selling at very early 2004 levels....and soon before we know it, we are heading to cross the 2003-2004 price change.
Here is a nice WH house, not foreclosure, great clean and updated condition with large pool, huge lot.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/WOODLAND-HILLS/
5715-OAKDALE-AVE-91367/home/4035965

Sold in May 02, 2008 $775,000
Sold in Jul 26, 2005 $910,000

Peter, does that house sold for march 2005 price....I think not.....

[Cal]

Pendings have been stronger lately so we should start eventually seeing some pull through to sales but we have yet to see this as anything other than seasonality over a recovery.

To trumpet the second worst April on record instead of just the worst April on record as a recovery when the cheap areas were strong and the expensive areas were weak seems a bit optimistic.

The higher end homes aren't selling well, that means we don't know their true value yet. The REO's selling will help the market bottom but resales by homeowners is what drives the market and builds the housing ladder. Right now it seems like the banks are getting most of the money.

[GDC]

Laker,

I just been to some open houses in the "desirable" parts of SFV and you're right. The listing prices are at late 04/early 05 levels but they have not been selling for months. The actual sales prices are in the late 03 levels. There are great deals by 06 standards but I think they have a couple more years of declines. I think you are right that the SFV will eventually get to 2001 levels. I hope sooner rather than later.

[E]

Pete...

is there a way that you can format the response section so that Redfin & Zillow links aren't cut off?

or should we use tinyurl?

[Chris]

Hey PETE!

Do you know what happened with that auction on May 10th in Gardena with the brand new homes with a starting price of 489K??

[Uncle Billy Climbs Mont Pelerin]

Bubble bubble soil and trouble
Prices dropping, listings double

[pablo]

yea i have been waiting for Gardena auctions results? u answering questions today ?

[peteviles]

Pablo -- I'm not doing Q and A today -- every other week for now -- but will try to get some info about the auction of those Gardena homes. My limited experience is that what happens at the auction itself can be a mirage -- winning bids are no guarantee of future sales. But I'll check, thanks.

[yourkillingmelarry]

Does anybody know what happened to that $289 foreclosure property in Silver Lake?

The price declines are really picking up and that is the best for almost all involved except those who bought at the top or HELOC'd themselves to death. When affordability returns volumes will go back up, realtors and mortgage brokers can make their commissions, first time homebuyers will have something left over for furniture and appliances. RE will be boring like it should be.

[Cal]

SFV sales up 10% YoY but last years subprime explosion hit the area particularly hard in April of 2007 so the YoY comparison is pretty easy..

Next month is more interesting, pendings are definitely much much higher but so far the pull through to sales isn't matching the pendings. I think it will fall short about 5-10% for May and probably start being consistently positive YoY in the SFV around August/September.

Prices still dropping, avg and median down about the same, ~130k.

[Sean]

Still got a LONG way to drop. The housing situtaion will not unwind in 2008. By next year at this time, the prices will have dropped another 15 - 20%. Count on it.

This is NOT a good time to buy. Don't listen to all the rosy talk from realtors. Now is the time to wait. If you buy now, you will lose tens of thousands of dollars.

[Laker]

Peter,
You added this line:
June 04 $414,000 32.3% 127,027

What i find to be amazing here (assuming it is not a typo) is the 32.3%. Again 32.3%.
One more time 32.3% YoY price INCREASE !!!!
This was indeed a crisis, but how many politicians mentioned or called it a crisis....maybe one (Ron Paul)
YoY appreciation of 32% is unreal! Fake, and super bubbled. seeing 20% YoY declines is nothing but a mere healthy inevitable correction.