Calif. home prices fall 32% from April '07 levels

There is another ugly headline, but also a hint of recovery in the new monthly sales statistics from the California Association of Realtors.

Ugly headline: Median sales prices in the state plummeted 32% from year-ago levels in April. From the Silicon Valley Business Journal: "The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during April was $403,870, a 32 percent decrease from the revised $594,110 median for April 2007, C.A.R. reported. The April 2008 median price fell 2.6 percent compared with March's revised $414,640 median price."

If you are scoring at home, that's a decline of $190,000 in a year, or $3,600 per week. I understand the median price is an imperfect measure, and doesn't indicate that individual homes lost that much value. Still, that is Tom Petty stuff, my friend, because that is free-falling (It's Friday, a bonus link).

Now the glimmer of recovery: Sales in April actually increased 2.5% over year-ago levels, breaking a 30-month streak of declines, the CAR reported.

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo Credit: Bloomberg News

Comments

[sunsetbeachguy]

I prefer the Calculated Risk term.

Cliff diving.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFUxUz9g5t0&
feature=related

[150 multiple choice questions]

Well who can question the CAR or Leslie Appleton-Young? Oh, wait, EVERYONE!

She is a paid liar and lie she does (or the worlds biggest idiot... or both). Dataquick says sales are down 10.9% from last year, did you think about pointing that out? Everyone knows sales are down from last year. Where I live they're down almost 50%... (based on first quarter '07 to first quarter '08, not even the more easily skewed month-to-month - AND THEY'RE DOWN EVEN MORE FROM '06)

So the real question Peter is WHEN IS SOMEONE GOING TO CALL THESE SHILLS ON THEIR CRAP? WHY DOES ANYONE GIVE THE CAR OR NAR ANY PRESS AT ALL?

Seriously, Peter, if you (or any "news" source) are going to put this crap up, isn't there a journalist responsibility to point out how poor the source is or at a minimum find someone who provides the other side?.. otherwise known as "reality?" (If you ask nicely, I may be interested in the job)

[JK]

ZZZZZZzzzzzz... wake me when Joe and Jane Smith can earn a combined $100K/yr and afford a home in a safe area. Until then, may the free fall continue.

[E]

Sure...sales of crap at the bottom end is up.

Could you run some figures on $1.5MM and up? I'd love to see the MOS and sales figures in that category.

[E]

Oh...and make sure that the "sales" are ONLY single family residences. I see too many apartment buildings that have been sold yet the sale is counted as a "SFR" sale. I have even seen apartments that have been sold (not in L.A.) where *every* individual unit was listed as a separate sale yet for every listing the price was the price of the *whole* complex.

[Nelcisco]

the more I read this stuff the more I want to get out the loan business and start a band.

Are there any broke RE agents or LO's just fed up with all this that can play an instrument? I'm holding auditions

[CD]

And now lets pass the bong and sing : Free Falling by Tom Petty.
-She's a good girl, loves her mamma, loves Jesus and America too.
She's a good girl, crazy 'bout Elvis, loves horses, and her boyfriend too.
And it's a long day, livin' in Resida, there's a freeway,runnin' thru the yard
And I'm fee falling
Yeah I'M FREE FALLING
And all the vampires walkin'trough the valley move west down Ventura Boulevard
I wanna glide down over Mulholland I wanna write her name in the sky,I'm gonna free fall out into nothing, gonna leave this world for a while....
Free Falling !!!!
I remember the 70' in LA. I miss it.

[Geek Seek]

E: Where are you seeing apartment buildings being sold and then counted as sfr's?

"...every individual unit was listed as a separate sale"

Are these condo conversions? Are they flagged as "POL" (part of larger)?

[Paul Hiller]

In this type of bear market it is not unusual to have an uptick in sales as the prices plunge and entry level homes become affordable. It's just not enough to make a floor as more and more distressed properties come on the market. Also, most of the sales that are happening are not kick-off sales, as the seller too often is a bank who is not buying-up.

[John T Watts]

Where is the point when Paying rent becomes approximately the same as a mortgage payment after factoring in the tax benefit of deducting mortgage interest and property taxes? At some point it is still better to buy than rent due to equity paydown in the long term and the fact that, with a fixed rate loan, mortgage payments will stay the same while rents will always keep going up. It seems like prices would not be likely to fall below that point. In some parts of the country it is already cheaper to buy than it is to rent if a person can just come up with a down payment.

[Matthew Taylor]

This is NOT an ugly headline. I call it a good start.

[Tim K.]

"Ugly" headine? Prices falling over 30% is a BEAUTIFUL headline. It's another in a series I look forward to reading because it's a return to SANE PRICES.

Every month I look forward to more of this good news!

[Cal]

Here is the City chart from DQ which is the basis for the CAR stats (and I do find it funny that the CAR hires someone to run stats for them on data they own and control)

http://tinyurl.com/5ouyry

[Valley Observer]

"Here is the City chart from DQ which is the basis for the CAR stats (and I do find it funny that the CAR hires someone to run stats for them on data they own and control)"

This data is based on recordings, not listings, and includes FSBOs where CAR isn't involved. DQ gets microfiche from the county recorders, and people in the Bahamas key it in. (Fidelity data is entered in the Philippines; don't know where First American sends it).

[Valley Observer]

On second thought, I recall that DQ gets the data from First American, which in turn gets it from the county recorders. Then DQ cleans up things like improper property type or owner's address given as property address, as far as possible. This is pretty dirty data, originating with brokers and lawyers who are concerned with completing their transaction, not optimizing these secondary uses of the data.

[Sean]

It still has a LONG WAY TO FALL before prices ARE actually reasonable. This is merely the middle of a long awaited price correction to an over inflated housing market.

Still a bad time to buy a home. A year from now will be a better time. Right now, it's like catching a falling knife.

[Uncle Billy]

Sign me up! A laptop on the beach with a good wifi connection and a pitcher of mojitos beside me. Throw in health insurance, and a good pension plan and I'll scrub that data 9 hours a day for peanuts!

[francis]

Expensive home prices benefit no one. We'd all be better off if houses were cheap! The only people who are being hosed, are the ones who bought in the last 7-8 years, and flippers. Everyone else experienced a "fake" increase in their houses worth, and it is now on its way to normal.

Still a long way to drop before houses are affordable, and sustainable at 2.5 to 3x average salary.

[Interested Party]

Here ist her rub... either this publication and blog are wrong, or Forbes and their article from this week si wrong. Which is it. Per Forbes, prices are down an avg of 11.9% in Kali on average for all single family homes with spot highs in the 15s and lows well below 7. Either way, the market is hosed there and in need of further adjustment as well as a general investigation and prosecution of most lenders and their agents for this disaster. Undocumented, 'creative', adjustable, inflated, 110%, BS loans to people who don't even speak the language on the loan papers they signed (either because they are complete idiots or they are foriegn born). No bail out either please, my salary is already raped enough supporting the illegals and the war and all the other overpriced government 'services' for which I get hardly any benefit.

[tlab]

you'd have to be an idiot to believe that prices were down that far.

[RE.Agent]

It's a new paradigm, and everybody who doesn't buy, now, will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase.

Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $10,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and Hondas.

This asset bubble is different than all of the others - it will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permanent.

[jonathan kelley]

angry renters unite