April home sales in L.A. down 43%

Though the market showed a few signs of life in April, Los Angeles home sales continue to slide dramatically from year-ago levels, with median prices also slipping, according to HomeData Corp.

HomeData numbers first reported in the Los Angeles Business Journal show:
--Sales for April increased 15% from March, but were still 43% below year-ago levels when April 2008 numbers are adjusted to show a four-week selling period.
--The median sales price slipped to $456,000.
--LABJ leads its story with the March-to-April jump in sales: "Los Angeles County home sales continued their rebound in April as warmer weather and falling prices coaxed home buyers back into the market." But the Journal adds, "While prospective buyers are leaving the sidelines, real estate observers believe it will take the market a few years or more to recover as foreclosures continue to muddy the market."

Separate stats from the SoCalMLS, however, show almost no April bounce from March sales levels, and show the median home price flat at $475,000.

One caveat: The most widely quoted and reported stats on SoCal home sales are the DataQuick numbers, due out later in the month. I generally err on the side of publishing too much information rather than too little. You guys are smart enough to deal with two sets of data. Or three.

Hat tip: To Cal, via comments, on both sets of data. Thanks, Cal.
Comments? Thoughts? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.

Comments

[bruincstone]

not going to try to jump the gun here either, but i guess that whole "median price perhaps hitting a point of stabliization" talk can go out the window now. i know you were just objectively looking at the numbers, but i think you enjoyed playing devil's advocate to people like Laker's assertions of continued huge decreases in home values.

you gotta know even playing devil's advocate plays with the confidence of a 2 year married but making more than 100,000 couple who just want to get a place that the wife can finally decorate....here's to fiscal responsibility and further drops in the median home price!

cheers

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Not to be outdone by home sales, April traffic in Southland was down 50%.

One day, when the whole thing is long forgotten, you can tell your grand kids that in 2008, you walked 20 miles to school. That was the year when gas was $10.00 a gallon and the gas bill for the Humvee was bigger than the house payment, even after reset. But the government only bailed out flippers and not Humvee owners. So, great grandfather, that's your father, made you walk to a school he thought was within easy driving distance, or maybe he didn't bother about that, as he flipped his way from house to another. But the government bailout - that changed everything. You were forced to stay in that house. You're 'saved.'

And your grand kids will all go, 'Wow! 20 miles? You really did that, grandpa?'

'Yup, 2008. That was some year alright. Same year we survived The Flood.'

'The Flood?'

'Yup. But that's another story for another night. Now, go to sleep.'

[Laker]

bruincstone,
What are you saying, can you elaborate a little? 10X.

[Ragnar]

Hi Peter -

Would you please make a font size enlargement to the second half of this post? I have fine vision, but the font is still so dinkylicious! Thanks!

[Joseph... the Real Estate Guy]

Peter,

Could you please give us the stats from 2004? What are we down comparing to 2004?

I have felt an 80-90% drop in sales from 3-4 years ago!

[Cal]

The outlying areas will be interesting, i've seen some strong closings in outer areas of Ventura according to Melissa Data but they include any transfer of ownership (trustee sales, i.e. foreclosures) . We might see the outer areas doing better as far as volume than LA since they are further along in the cycle and have more realistic sellers (foreclosures).

[E]

Funny thing is...

there are still flippers in the game.

I'm seeing houses sold 3-6 months ago that had a quick remodel and were slapped back on the market.

I'm also seeing plenty of foreclosures that are being flipped.

What % of sales actually ends up with the house in the hands of the "end user"?

[bruincstone]

Hey Laker,

If any of this sounds redundant or condescending, that isn't the point, but since in the first one I skipped over some thoughts in my head thereby making the post unintelligible, I may be overly detailed and explicit in this post to avoid the lack of intelligibility this time around.

Gist of Peter's Post today: Median Home Price in Los Angeles County has dipped, and sales are down significantly from this time last year.

In this post: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/
2008/05/flat-flat-flat.html

Peter notes how there has been a stalling in the mls price index and ponders the meaning of that stall.

Your general position appears to be that prices will continue to come down significantly. I can only hope that you are right.

Today's post does not necessarily disagree or make the post of May 6th inconsequential or irrelevant, but seems to support your position more than it does the idea that this stall could possibly be permanent.

While many people have their interests riding on the current market (like the guy who started his own real estate empire only to lose it see the Peter's post before this one), I just wanted to share with Peter that the playing of devil's advocate with numbers such as the stalling mls prices can make people like me nervous. You never know when this thing will bottom out in a place like los angeles. Sure, its easy to say that the overall real estate market won't balance back out until late 2009 up til early 2011, but los angeles is so desirable and CA has, historically, been such a destination for people that I feel like normal reasoning does not apply.

For example, one of the most astute (with money) people i know bought a place 2 months ago. Now either, he got to the point where money was no object, he simply believes he will be there long enough that even with the self-correcting market he'll wind up ahead in 20 years, or something....but man, that kind of stuff makes me think I don't know my....well, something...from my elbow...

Hope that made more sense...

[TheBeefIsPrime]

Perfect example of the continuous "glass is half empty" coverage we get here on this illustrious blog.... Viles could have used the headline "April sales up 15% from March", or "April sales up 15% from March, down 43% YoY", but of course he uses the headline "SALES DOWN 43%!!!"

Whatever, you say, but I can guarantee you this: if the stat was instead that April sales were DOWN 15% from last month, the headline here would be "SALES DOWN 15% IN 1 MONTH!!!!"

Alright, Ill let you guys get back to your business of prognosticating about armageddon now.

[TheCarcassIsRotting]

TheBeefIsPrime...

The proper statistical method is YEAR OVER YEAR (YOY)

Funny how all you realtor shills started using MOM figures when it would spin things to your benefit.

Now go HELOC yourself a proper education.

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

TheCarcassIsRotthing is correct, PrimeBeef.

When a meat eater orders his/her red wine to go with that prime beef, he or she doesn't ask which month. He or she asks, 'what year?'

So, the proper comparison is year over year.

[Jay Bingham]

It's buyers market in Los Angeles and most of the country. In Sedona Arizona, prices have fallen as inventory rises.
http://www.sedonaarizonahomesforsale.com

[Cal]

So Cal MLS updated their sales numbers since we posted this.. SFH jumped 500 since this post.. condos didnt move..

Weird..