L.A. listing prices now down $125K from peak

Median listing prices in greater Los Angeles fell nearly $5,000 in the past week, and have now declined $125,000 from their bubble peak, according to Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listings.

Highlights:

--Median listing price fell to $455,000, a decline of 16.7% over the past year and 21.6% from the April 2006 peak of $579,666.
--The inventory of unsold houses and condos rose to 42,482, which is 23.3% ahead of last year's levels. Though inventory is climbing, it is not climbing as fast as it was at this time a year ago. As a result, year-over-year inventory gains have been declining, from a peak of 38.3% in mid-February.

Date               Median listing price                      Inventory
4/06               $579,666                                         27,251
4/07               $545,000                                         35,489
5/07               $545,000                                         38,297
6/07               $540,000                                         40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07               $535,000                                         42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07               $529,000                                         44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07               $520,000                                         46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07             $510,000                                         46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07             $499,900                                         46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07             $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)          43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08               $479,900 (down 12.6%)               40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08               $475,000 (down 13.5%)               43,625 (Up 38.3%)
3/08               $464,900 (down 15.5%)               42,098 (Up 31.4%)
3/31/08         $459,900 (down 16.2%)               42,038 (Up 27.6%)
4/7/08           $455,000 (down 16.7%)                42,482 (Up 23.3%)

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com

Comments

[yourkillingmelarry]

Looks like a typical distressed market. We have a long long way to go people. Sales volume is critically low and that is making its way into the economy. The Spring bounce is utterly ridiculous. Summer and Fall this year may be the darkest of this downturn.

[Roger Moore]

Also interesting for those who have been watching is that the 75th percentile price has dipped by $5900 to $669,000. That's still higher than it was in January or February, but it's down a bit from last month. The slight rise for the past few months is just evidence that the ride down is going to be bumpy, not that the bottom is near.

[Truth2Pwr]

$125K down, $200K still to go.

Oh and BTW, those 75th percentilers better grab their ankles and do their kissing, cause if they ever expect to sell, sooner or later their little game of fantasy land is gonna have to end, and when they finally break down and admit to themselves their suburban cookie cutter tract home is really worth about half of the $800K they paid for it, that moment of capitulation my friends, is gonna hurt like a bee-yatch!

[ckomel]

I've been looking for a 2 bedroom condo in Santa Monica, Brentwood, Westwood area for quite sometime now. One thing I noticed in the past 5 months or so is that a lot of the new listings were coming from the people who bought their places in 2004 thru 2006. I wonder if we have statistics on the distribution of listings over year bought. Is it my skewed reading or everybody who bought in the past couple of years are trying to get rid of the hot potato?

[yourkillingmelarry]

http://sbbeachbubble.blogspot.com/ has a LA Business Journal article up.

"The conventional bullish line of thinking has been that the affluent areas will be immune to a downturn in housing prices, but Madison Hildebrand, a Coldwell "Banker broker for Malibu, notes that even though prices are still rising on what is sold, sales are down. Lynn Borland, the president of Wilshire Realty, which specializes in Westside luxury condos and townhomes, getting maybe "one sale for every 100 visitors", whereas in a "balanced market", a sale could be made to perhaps five or six people for every 100 visitors. While luxury home buyers have the cash to buy, they are "sitting back waiting for additional price drops."

According to sbbeachbubble Redondo Beach YOY sales $ for March are down 46.6% and March 2007 was not all that hot. Yes the nice areas of LA are now getting HIT. In Economics 101 you learn that as sales volumes drop pricing follows. You know things are bad when the bulls tout the seasonal pick up in sales and post that they saw "A HOUSE" sale at full price meanwhile you have slew houses that did not sale. How much do those houses cost?? Nothing has changed we are in the midst of a downward spiral from the top of the market to the bottom.

[Lou]

Wait a minute. I thought housing never went down.

[Howard]

The problem is the only areas that are delcining in price are the undesirable areas of LA. Places like the westside/coastal areas are still maintaining their value. If there hasn't been a catalyst to take down those markets, there probably won't be one.

[Bob Warren]

If you plot median listing price against time (months) you get a straight line -- median listing price has declined $8200 per month over the period shown. So, if you are into linear thinking, another 12 months of this should lead to another $98000 drop.

[Ragnar]

This continues to be good news for someone looking to escape the icy-cold over-clouded tundra that is Wisconsin. By the time we are ready to move to Southern California in a couple of years, we may actually be able to afford a home in less marginal part of town. Of course, the wifey prefers San Diego to LA, but I'm sure we'll arrive in a place in So Cal we both like and are happy to call home.

[shockg]

And even more interesting is that inventory remains relatively flat during the time of year we are used to seeing large increases.

[Laker]

Posted by: shockg: "...relatively flat during the time of year we are used to seeing large increases....

Dear troll, check out YoY trends.
Even if year over year is +0.0001% that means inventory is rising!
From physics, the speed is rising though the acceleration is smaller...

[shockg]

Laker, Of course you only want to look at YOY because thats all that supports your agenda.

[tealeaf]

shockg is pointing out that the upper staterooms are still dry and that the tea time is at 5:30. meanwhile, all the lifeboats are spoken for.

Can you hear the depreciation knocking, shock? How does the $8200 per month feel when matched against your $200 principal reduction (assuming you didn't IO the stucco box)?

Man, the rent check is actually going to feel good this month!

[Laker]

shockg, as a real estate person, the least i would expect you to know is seasonality in RE. I mean, if you present me the point that there are more sales in July than in February...and claiming that this proves appreciation....that just says it all about you. RE prices always go up....Housing is the best investment....Renting is trowing money....
please!