L.A. inventory, listing prices flat

Median listing prices and inventory of for-sale homes in greater Los Angeles were essentially flat over the past week, according to Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listings.

Highlights:

--Median listing prices were unchanged over the past week at $450,000, a decline of 17.4% from year-ago levels.
--Inventory of homes and condos for sale increased by two properties to 42,430, an increase of 16.7% from year-ago levels. A year ago, inventory was building rapidly; this year it has been flat to slightly lower since February.

Date               Median listing price                      Inventory
4/06               $579,666                                         27,251
4/07               $545,000                                         35,489
5/07               $545,000                                         38,297
6/07               $540,000                                         40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07               $535,000                                         42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07               $529,000                                         44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07               $520,000                                         46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07             $510,000                                         46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07             $499,900                                         46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07             $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)         43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08               $479,900 (down 12.6%)               40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08               $475,000 (down 13.5%)               43,625 (Up 38.3%)
3/08               $464,900 (down 15.5%)               42,098 (Up 31.4%)
3/31/08         $459,900 (down 16.2%)               42,038 (Up 27.6%)
4/7/08           $455,000 (down 16.7%)                42,482 (Up 23.3%)
4/14/08         $450,000 (down 17.4%)                42,428 (Up 19.6%)
4/21/08         $450,000 (down 17.4%)                42,430 (up 16.7%)

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com

Comments

[Geek Seek]

I dunno... the market needs more fiber?

[lefty]

hey guys if you want to buy areas above the median, do it now! the motivated sellers are here, the others aren't! you can go around the world but you'll never match magical metro L.A.!! so enjoy your shopping and make your move!

[IToldu2CashOut]

This dead cat is filled with bricks. You don't even get a bounce.

[John T Watts]

At some point in time Lefty's message is going to be right pricisely on the money. But it is hard to imagine that, even when the bottom is reached, the price of homes in California won't be way out of line with the price of homes in the rest of the country. A person can buy so much more in other places. The newly retired baby boomers would do well to do their homework and get the most life they can from their retirement incomes. Do you like to hunt, fish, not deal with heavy traffic, enjoy clean air, all the shopping and eating places you need?
Y'all come see us. It's out here.

[Semphris]

Don't worry folks. It won't stay flat for long. This aberation is only a bear point in the market.

[Trudy Self]

Every time I read these statistics I wonder-- Is today's median price home last year's median house or is the listing market tilted toward the lower end houses that were more likely to have subprime mortgages?Are we talking apples to apples or apples to lemons.

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

It looks like we are at half time, with the Underwater Speculators losing badly to the Prudent Sideliners, by a hugh margin of $279,000.

[Rob]

Lefty.
I just put "In a couple of years" in front of your ramblings and you are da man....

[El Guapo]

The listing prices seem to go flat one week, then drop the next. Hope, then despair. Rinse and repeat.

[sfvrealestate]

John, you're right, L.A. is not going to be such a great place to retire. But until then, what if we don't like to hunt and fish? What if we like great weather? World class museums? Cutting edge entertainment and plenty of it? The beach?

[Truth2Pwr]

It's definitely important to read between the lines with all these numbers. Median list prices are utterly meaningless. Median sales prices are only meaningful when comparing comps with a statistically meaningful sample (Trulia offers useful breakdowns by # of bedrooms and sq. ft).

Just like with the stock market, I expect to see more and more false bottoms on the way down as first time buyers and investors get itchy trigger fingers and jump in. With such a small number of sales, any bump in price or volume will appear to the casual observer to be a sign of a bottom or even a bounce.

This will not be the case.

There is one indicator to watch for that will be the ultimate indicator of a bottom. That is overhang. A bottom won't be reached until available overhang levels return to normal ratios. At that point, we will have achieved a stable balance between supply and demand. Until that happens, you can count on the fact that there is still more blood to be shed.

Don't be fooled by a bounce in median sales (there will be several) while there is a 2 year overhang. That's just the pre-ejaculators who can't hold their wad. After they're all placated and situated is when the REAL bargaining will begin. Probably not until a year or so after all the media outlets proclaim an "end to the crisis" or bounce.

[puckhead]

It’s a mildly bullish sign that inventory levels have been essentially flat for 4 months. I know, I know people, there are loads of loans waiting to be reset and there are loads of houses about to hit the market. But from just looking at the chart, I would expect to see inventory spike as we’re well into spring. For the housing market to stabilize you’re going to need a leveling off of prices and supply. Maybe we’re starting to see supply stabilize

[Cal]

sfvrealestate:"But until then, what if we don't like to hunt and fish? What if we like great weather? World class museums? Cutting edge entertainment and plenty of it? The beach?"

But so many retirees, especially low to middle class have little to no retirement funds. They are asking themselves "What if I want to eat", "What if I have health problems"..

Their nest egg is their home and they need to arbitrage to a cheaper area to make a comfortable retirement realistic.

[desmo]

I see larger and larger houses coming on the market now here in Valencia with lower prices per sq ft and the prices are falling thru the floor. When I sold in 2005 I received $397 sf, now prices are down to $245 sf, larger homes but desperation is not far away. Valencia has too many large homes.

[the problemwithcaring]

But until then, what if we don't like to hunt and fish?
Posted by: sfvrealestate

I fish in Southern California all the time. Not like what I used to do in Michigan and in the south, but I still luvs it.

[Ace]

Even if you think median list prices tell you anything about the market, comparing this month to April 2006 doesn't tell the story.

In April 06, the list price was $579k and houses typically sold above the list price (typically by 5 to 10 percent).

In April 08, the list price is $450k but absolutely no one is paying list price. The houses sell for 10 to 20 percent less than list price.

Even if you take the conservative numbers (+5% in 06 and -10% in 08), the prices have dropped about 33 percent.

[Ace]

Kind of off topic but maybe not...

Driving around East SFV last weekend, I saw more 'For Rent' signs than I have ever seen. It seemed like every other apartment complex had an opening.

I also saw a brand new condo complex on Moorpark that has decided to rent out every unit instead of selling them.

[Rich]

It would be interesting if there were some way of knowing whether the "flat" pricing and inventory is the result of a surge of activity normal at this time of year, the Spring selling season, which created a wash situation, or whether there were very few completed transactions. If a lot of transactions took place that weren't able to crack the price trend upward, then I would suspect we really will see more broad price decline in your market over the remainder of the year. On the other hand, if the mass psychology of the market right now is that seller's aren't even listing, then we might see a bounce later in the year as well-priced inventory comes out to meet pent-up demand...

[Cal]

Ace:"In April 08, the list price is $450k but absolutely no one is paying list price. The houses sell for 10 to 20 percent less than list price. "

Plus the difference in buyers getting closing costs paid for versus not during the boom. The effective net for sellers has gone down substantially.

[E]

Here is a listing that will have everybody scratching their head...

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-
listing?listing-id=1664574

the sales history is crazier than *any* house I have ever seen.

[Laker]

E,
Jul 12, 1989 $412,000 --
Sep 20, 1995 $221,000 -9.6%/yr cash out refi
Sep 12, 1996 $100,000 -55.5%/yr cash out refi
Sep 03, 1998 $245,000 57.5%/yr cash out refi
Jan 08, 2002 $625,000 32.3%/yr Sell to new buyer
Apr 12, 2006 $189,244 -24.5%/yr Foreclosure of 2nd mortgage
Apr 21, 2006 $216,000 >1,000%/yr someone buys the 2nd note, maybe because there is a 3rd note.
May 09, 2006 $941,643 >1,000%/yr Foreclosure
Jul 27, 2006 $925,000 -7.9%/yr Someone buys from bank
Feb 22, 2007 $1,250,000 68.8%/yr That someone resells and makes $325K
Mar 05, 2008 $963,000 -22.3%/yr New (straw) buyer got foreclosed....

Hope it helps clear the picture.
Thanks Peter!

[shockg]

Yup, this is a clear sign of the housing crash hysteria losing steam every day. While the greedy speculators will dismiss this as a dead cat bounce, this is clearly a sign of the bottom.