A market overview: 'It's pretty ugly out there'

This wide-ranging market overview, to be published in Sunday's L.A. Times, but now available online, is worth checking out. Headline: "The Muted Market."

Highlights:

--"It's pretty ugly out there," says longtime Coldwell Banker broker David Toyama.  He says business is down 50% from last year.

--Inventory, expressed in months to sell, is running nearly three times greater than historical averages. In February, inventory in L.A. County stood at 21.2 months' worth of sales -- up from 10.6 months a year ago.

--One seller learned the hard (expensive) way how not to sell into a declining market: She listed her West Covina house for $600,000 in February 2007, reduced it to $550,000, then $480,000, then $460,000. She finally sold it after 11 months on the market, for $440,000.

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.
Photo Credit: L.A. Times

Comments

[Uncle Billy Climbs Mont Pelerin]

Joan, specifiy some decent, middle class neighbourhoods, and then let's take a looksee.

[CamphorTree]

Joan,

I'm also one of those six figure income earners but the type of crap I can buy for my money is absolute CRAP!

I was considering moving my business to Houston, yes I know it has crazy humidity in the summer, but I'm from Wisconsin (also crazy humidity) and lived in Tokyo (again crazy humidity). But the type of home I can get for my SIX FIGURE INCOME is amazing! Even with property taxes (no state income tax) as high as they are, with what my state income taxes are. I still come ahead by moving my self, family and my business along with about 100 high paying jobs. I own a technology/software company.

And another thing , there were still a lot of people earning six figures a year when the home Judy sold for 800k was going for 300k about 9 years ago! I know I was!

[Uncle Billy Climbs Mont Pelerin]

More on tealeaf's theme:

Downpayments. Many of those 6-7 figure income folks have been stretching just like everyone else and buying up a storm, saving little or nothing. Since they don't usually qualify for down payment assistance due to largeish incomes, many can't buy even if they can afford conservative fixed rate loans -- just too little money for a down payment on the kind of home they'd like in the neighbourhoods where they'd feel comfortable.

[jbunniii]

Eagle Rock?! Prior to the bubble, 1999 or earlier, this would have sold for $150 max, and it will likely do so again within a few years. That anyone would pay $605k for this is sheer madness. This correction still has a long way to go.

[Inland Empire]

Judy, that one property you're crowing about closed 50k below list. Woopdeedoo. How many of your customers from the last two years are now underwater, foreclosed on, or bankrupt? Congratulations on finding another sucker.

Figures state that only one out of 33 homeowners is in trouble with their mortgage. Get a grip.

[tealeaf]

Uncle Billy:

Excellent corollary re: downpayments. Adding to that theme, they are saving little because they are engulfed in taxes (many, like our household, are under AMT) based on a lack of an interest deduction. Add the unemployment numbers released for Cali (putting us in worse shape than Ohio and Penn), and it's a complete stalemate.

To the realtors/bulls: I'm not the greedy one here. WIth my $200k household income, I just want to buy a nice 4br/3ba home in a nice neighborhood. No coastal breezes, no mass acreage. Just a simple place with a good school district, 25 mins from a job center at no more than 3x gross. Everything I look at in that price range takes me to backwater or blem houses.

And we're the ones "talking down" the market, shockg? Give me strength. We are the ones who are going to save this market, once fundamentals are in line.

Still affordability.

[JohnnyB]

"Mr. Creosote"!, that's it... thanks. One of the most gut-wrenchingly funny physical comedy scenes ever. Also, a nice metaphor on many levels...

starchy;

Hey, I'm just having fun... not angry. I would have been real angry if I had bought into this bubble, but thankfully my better judgment prevailed.

When reading articles like this, just replace the old saying; if the show fits - with, if the shill fits.

Everyone needs to make a living. Some are just caught in a field that makes a living at others expense – beyond the normal trade and consumerism kind of dynamic. In this current, over-valued housing market collapse, the RE shills are still spewing lies and crap (i.e. the NAR school of shill-speak) - as the above article clearly reveals – and to the very great expense of the fools who bite the hook.

Thanks for the big kiss… you may now open your eyes and look around. See what’s going on out there… recognize if you are part of the problem or part of the solution.

[sfvrealestate]

"Judy, that one property you're crowing about closed 50k below list. Woopdeedoo. How many of your customers from the last two years are now underwater, foreclosed on, or bankrupt?"
-Baruza, it closed at the original recommended price and the sellers are happy. So's the buyer. Sorry that you're not. Oh, it was a conventional loan, too, and it appraised to value.
In answer to your "how many" question: exactly zero.

[mustafa hass bin]

Yes. Just move to some other random state and your life will be better.

[baruza]

Well, I do feel sorry that so many of your customers will be losing money, and I seriously doubt that in the areas you sell, where NODs are way up and values have fallen 10+ percent, no one is underwater. But if they went in expecting to take those losses for the next several years, then good for them. If I'd bought that place I'd be kind of worried about the NOD down the block, as well as the one a block east, and the two more a block west and south, etc. But heh, buying 6 months-1 year before these hit the market bank-owned is their business. Just hope they knew what they were getting into.