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Update: Signs of a bottom? National home sales show signs of life

36459802Update: Home sales showed unexpected signs of life nationally in February, prompting talk that the housing market may be nearing a turnaround.

The AP: "After falling for six straight months, sales of existing homes posted an unexpected increase in February which may have reflected more aggressive price cutting by sellers in some parts of the country, a real estate trade group reported."

More, from the AP: "Analysts cautioned against reading too much into the one-month rise in sales. Many economists are predicting that the steep slump in housing will not bottom-out until later this year after prices fall further and allow huge levels of unsold inventories to be reduced."

An important local reminder: We've already seen the results for February sales in Los Angles, and there was no hint of a rebound in the February statistics from DataQuick: February sales in Los Angeles County were 45% below year-ago levels, and median sales prices were down 12.9%. So if you see some glimmer of hope in today's national numbers, remember, the L.A. numbers for February were awful.

More on today's numbers, from Reuters: "The pace of existing home sales in the United States rose in February to a 5.03 million-unit annual rate. ... February broke a six-month streak of decreasing home sales."

On prices: "Prices took a record fall ... an 8.2% decline in median home prices from a year ago. That drop to $195,900 was the sharpest since the trade group began keeping records in 1968."

The pace of annual sales rose from 4.89 million in January to 5.03 million in February, which is 24% below last February's pace of 6.60 million sales.

The National Association of Realtors' news release is here,
including analysis from association economist Lawrence Yun: "We’re not expecting a notable gain in existing-home sales until the second half of this year, but the improvement is another sign that the market is stabilizing,” he said.  “Buyers taking advantage of higher loan limits for both [Federal Housing Administration] and conventional mortgages will unleash some pent-up demand.  As inventories are drawn down, prices in many markets should go positive later this year.”

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles.@latimes.com

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How about fixing your "email" link for this story so that it is not dependent on an existing email account tied to the operating system? I think most people use Yahoo, MSN, Gmail or something else.

There are a LOT of bargain hunters out there and a lot seem to be buying into the idea that this is the bottom. But slumps come in waves and the Spring buying season is starting up, so it's not surprising to see a little buying activity.

Inland Empire wrote, "How about fixing your "email" link for this story so that it is not dependent on an existing email account tied to the operating system?"

Thanks, IE. You're giving me way too much credit. I'm gathering you think I actually provided an email link rather than just an address, and the link I provided doesn't work very well. Not so, my friend.

Until your comment I was too clueless to even create the link. So thanks to you, for dragging me into new technology, there is now a real live link there now, I hope it works for all email systems.

Pete

By the way, these numbers may not matter since foreclosures aren't included. From Bloomberg:

"Home foreclosure filings jumped 60 percent and bank seizures more than doubled in February from the same month last year as rates on adjustable mortgages rose and property owners were unable to sell or refinance, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of foreclosure data."

Seems to me a lot of the housing picture is simply not included in those numbers.

Don't worry, despite all the real facts, realtors are still as scummy and full of lies, er, "spin" as ever.

"The pace of existing home sales in the United States rose in February to a 5.03 million-unit annual rate ... February broke a six-month streak of decreasing home sales..."

I know it takes NOTHING to get your real estate license, but are you really telling me they believe their lies and are still using the seasonal advantages in sales to put out a positive spin? Sales are down 30% year over year, anyone think that's a more accurate measure? Am I supposed to give them credit for mentioning the 8.6% price drop? Or can you hear "prices are dropping, it's the perfect time to buy! It's the bottom! (for the 12th time in the last 12 months) Thank GOD the internet is eliminating these people. Only the handful of smart honest realtors will be left.

Actually, according to the NAR report, home sales in the West are down.
"Existing-home sales in the West slipped 1.1 percent to an annual rate of 920,000 in February, and are 29.2 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $290,400, down 13.4 percent from February 2007.
"

http://tinyurl.com/35vgow

NAR: "...Buyers taking advantage of higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional mortgages..."

Bull S***, I spoke with couple of loan guys, and the answer was the same. The increased limit to $729,000 is not working (yet). They all still make loans up to $417,000. Some simply add a second mortgage as line of credit if the loan balance is higher than $417,000.
Also, even after repricing, according to them to take another 3 months, rates will be higher on these since there is greater risk...

Market bottom??? Bull S*** number two. The latest "book" I received from REDC auction is the thickest to date...Also, I've been seeing price drops every day in good parts of the valley.
Just today the news on 1070am, they published that household median income went DOWN 2% since 2000.
Please remind me, what happened the cost of a house in our area since 2000...
I believe we are beginning to see a bull trap, watch out!

brettdl, I think the sales figures *do* include foreclosures. NAR typically pulls from MLS data, which will show sales of REOs (foreclosures).

That's why I think sales are up while prices are down: a lot of foreclosures are being sold. Typical resales are way down as a result; the stats are skewed by REOs. John and Mary Average, who paid their mortgage on time and now need to sell, are getting the shaft, because lenders are slashing prices to raise cash (they may have already written down the bad-loan loss) and are continuing to push down prices.

Must you quote Lawrence Yun every month ? I know you guys in the news make money from RE adds but still
we all know the score about that lying sack of manure.
It's the computer information age. Quotes can be checked in nano time, and he is always wrong.Check out the "lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com" All his lies have ben collected there, you will have a laugh ! What bottom, are we still talking bottom, at the beginning of the mother of all recession ??? Bottom? that word does not exist any longer..... We are on the other side of the mirror now.

Nice call brettdl. As Walt Whitman said, "There's lies. There's damn lies. And then there's statistics!"

And then there's delusional shills like Yun, and whoever produced those ridiculous TV ads about what a great investment real estate is and how there's never been a better time to buy. If that isn't false and misleading advertising, I don't know what is.

For those paid to prop up the RE industry, watching this balloon burst is probably a lot like watching "Apocalypto". About 15 minutes in, you're thinking, "Well geez, enough already, there has to be some sort of break in the brutality! But in fact, you ain't seen nothing yet, things get WAAAAAY worse, and you've still got about 2 hours more of it to go before it mercifully ends.

(BTW, if anyone could explain to me why Saw, Hostel, and their ilk are considered "torture porn" and Apocalypto gets 6 Oscar nominations, it would have to be Laurence Yun)

"Bargain hunters"? Only in SoCal could a 1000 square foot "starter" home be a "bargain" at 500-600 grand.

Well, I see there is a bounce in the market. Look out folks because once this thing takes off, it will be the next round in "who can be the slimiest greediest speculator the quickest . . . ". As soon as the market shows the least little bit of life, it will return to status quo in no time. The people of SoCal will not have learned a thing from all this.

I also see that the scum sucking house of the seven savage money grubbers, Bear Sterns, is up to $10 a share. Wonder how much the out going CEO of Bear Sterns will get in his sweet little severance package. That would be the one responsible for the meltdown that cost a lot of tax payers a lot of money and a lot of people a lot of jobs.

I wonder if all the chicken littles on this board took their cyonide yet? I also wonder how all of the aforementioned can consider this greed postule explosion to be the end of the world when there are still enough rich idiots to fill up rentals in Malibu going for $100,000 a month.

And to all those homeowners who are "motivated sellers" I say, hold out until about July and you will be back in the catbird seat. Not only will the market rebound, it will be a frenzy.

In the meantime, the markets and the taxpayers will be figuring out a way to pay for the folly of the Gordon Geccos who gambled everything on the greedy and stupid victims of predatory lenders being able to keep up with their ARMS (most of whom are minorities who may or may not be able to speak English).

Instead of going to jail however, these sacks of greed pus who inhabit Wall Street will recieve big, fat bonuses paid for with tax payer money.

God Bless America! And God Bless California!

The increased government assistance will lend some support going forward. It looks like the increased Fannie/Freddie/FHA limits could provide the fuel for a bear trap (head fake / dead cat bounce) that is the norm for early-mid stage bear markets.

Truth and stats at : calculatedrisk.blogspot.com
CR and TANTA and their bloggers will tell you as it is.

Don't sales always increase from January to February? Try comparing this February with last February. This will demonstrate a huge decline in both sales and prices.

Yes, this is really the bottom. And every time the stock market has a positive tick, that is a sign that all the ticks from now on will be positive. I really really believe that. Hurray. Happy Days Are Here Again.

Laker, I think they were referring to future home sales. The FHA programs are not even widely in place yet.

Peter, is there any data for L.A. County?

How bad can the high end market be if people are willing to pay $150,000 per month for a rental in Malibu.

Truth2Pwr wrote: ..."Saw, Hostel, and their ilk are considered "torture porn" and Apocalypto gets 6 Oscar nominations, it would have to be Laurence Yun..."

Truth2Pwr, You are making a sin putting the "great" economist Laurence Yun with great movies like Hostel and Saw.
On the other hand, I wish Laurence Yun would be one of those "victims" in one of these movies, i would have loved to see him there crying for his life, but trying to convince the Guy torturing him to death about how good RE is.... Anybody for SAW 5, or Hostel 3 ?

I've been saying for a couple of months now that there won't be a "silent Spring", nationally there will be a Spring sales season and there will be noticeable increases in sales as there are every year at this time, because prices have come down and many people will find financing and pricing they can live with. This Winter may have been the last moment when the crisis was framed clearly for all to see--from here forward the price declines which have taken place will generate sales, generating competing statistics that will keep pundits talking over each other's heads throughout the coming years of recovery. The problem for Californians is that many who buy homes this Spring which have fallen in price will still be overpaying, and will still see permanent loss of equity later for doing so. Buyers in other parts of the country may be paying prices that are favorable in comparison with median incomes for their area and will buy well this year; but Californians would have to be savvy and disciplined enough to see how wildly inflated their market still is and forbear until next Spring to buy at a fair price. How about it, do you have the discipline to wait that long while the speculative pricing is wrung out of your market?

Jack, sorry I should have been more clear. While sales of foreclosed homes may be counted, I don't think the growing rank of foreclosures are counted as part of the inventory total.

Please let me know if I'm wrong on that count, though.

Interesting Commentary I found on Market Watch.

Commentary: After much preaching about prices, home sellers get religion

By MarketWatch
Last update: 11:43 a.m. EDT March 24, 2008P

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- You might be tempted to think that there was a remarkable resurrection in the housing market in February, given the news that existing-homes sales rose for the first time in seven months. But remember, Easter wasn't until March.
If there was an epiphany a month early, it came from home sellers who seem to have gotten the message that the way to move inventory in this dismal market is to beat the competition on price. The median price of existing homes sold in February dropped a record 8.2% from a year earlier, to $195,900.
Lo and behold, you drop prices and sales go up, nearly 3% for the month. That isn't what you'd call spectacular, especially given that sales are still down almost 24% year over year. But you can't expect miracles in a month like February, a short 29 days of generally dismal weather in most parts of the country when sales are usually sluggish as everyone gears up for spring.
The sales were enough to lop 3% off of the inventory of existing homes for sale. There are now just over 4 million houses on the market, a 9.6-month supply at the current sales pace. That's down from a 10.2-month supply in January, but nowhere near the 6-month supply that housing experts consider to represent a balanced market and a far cry from the 3- and 4-month supplies routinely seen at the peak of the current cycle in 2006.
The market may be poised to ascend, but there are still some pretty big stones that have to be rolled out of the way before any revival is more than fleeting:
March traditionally kicks off the spring selling season, and a flood of inventory onto the market now could easily reverse February's gains.
Prices are falling, making homes more affordable, but in many markets they are still wildly out of relation to buyers' ability to pay.
Rates are affordable in the mortgage market, but only the most-creditworthy borrowers are getting the chance to obtain those rates; many marginal borrowers are still frozen out.
The number of delinquencies and foreclosures is continuing to grow and will likely do so for several quarters yet, threatening to pour more inventory on the market and take more buyers out of it.
Even with February's numbers, the evidence that new life is being breathed into the housing market is scant. If you want to believe, you'll just have to take it on faith.
-- Steve Kerch, assistant managing editor/personal finance

Arson????

A fire broke out in a large condominium project under construction in Warner Center this morning, sending large plumes of smoke across the Valley. An estimated 100 firefighters are on the scene as the blaze, which began before 9 a.m. near the 6200 block of Canoga Avenue, raced through the wood framing of the multi-storied complex, according to TV news reports.

--Jesus Sanchez

Gary Watts, I mean, Kat,

That's a pretty bold prediction. How 'bout some data to back it up?

So there's a 24% drop in sales from last year and a 8.2% drop in prices (the biggest since keeping record from 1968) and WHO again is claiming that this shows that the market has bottomed out?


LOL, the market is so scary right now, you have to be a complete moron to invest in it. Or at least you can't be very attached to your money.

Here we go again. Suckers borned every minutes. 50% off of 70% inflated prices. Duh!!!!

Peter,

The bottom won't be here until 2011-2012. We've got several more waves of ARM readjustments that have to work their way through the system first.

The "bailouts" are going to be a non-issue, as unless we're going to switch to Soviet era socialized housing, the government doesn't have nearly enough $ to save the greedy and the stupid from their own greed and stupidity.

Prices down, sales up... isn't that Econ 101?

sfvrealestate : "Peter, is there any data for L.A. County?"

Err, Don't you have MLS access?

kat
Normally I'd suggest decaf but in your case I'd go for qualudes.

The real losses at Bear Stern's are being felt by the rank & file employees who just saw their life's savings and retirements go up in smoke. To be sure Mr. Spector's severance will be valued at ten times the offer now on the table for common stock, but that in no way justifies the vitriolic nonsense you chose to spew in this forum. If you're really so frustrated by your financial situation I'd suggest you get a better job. Ranting here doesn't do anything but display your deep seated neurosis.

150 multiple choice questions
What frustrates you so? Clearly you've never taken the first step towards a RE license or you wouldn't be so proud of your ignorance. I'm not particularly fond of attorneys, but I do know a few genuine advocates that are an exception to the rule. Perhaps you can get together with kat and do lunch.

I'm at least as angry as anybody else but I try (not always successfully) to look towards increased awareness and solutions. Why don't you try it sometime?

Peter, might be nice if you included all the finer detail in your story. As NationalBubble.com pointed out, it's down 1.1% in the west. This would mean that the West has definitely not hit ground yet. Price gains were region specific and I believe so are the price declines.

Does this mean Echo Park and El Monte are still considered prime real estate?

Lawrence Yun did do his job:

1) to push RE value to its highest and for a good stretch of time.
2) prevent a dramatic housing crash. The fed are doing what they can for a soft landing and they feel Yun is part of that equation.

While the rest of us get screwed, the wall street cronies have made their millions and are off for a nice vacation before they jump on the next boom, commodities or currency trading, as the rest of us pay to clean up this mess.

This is just the spring bump that was anticipated a few months ago by many of the commenters in this very blog. In every housing downturn you will expect a bump where many rubes buy into the "bottom" of the run is here or near. In reality this is just a bump of little consequence for the ultimate price correction in the market that will continue for a while. Buy now and be sorry a few months down the road.

I like how NAR is seizing on any minimal worthless statistic they can. I was listening to NPR this morning and they had one guy from NAR and one guy from DataQuick on today.

My favorite moment was when someone called in and said (paraphrase): Isn't it the case that YOY statistics, which are the important stat, are way down? I don't see how month to month means anything, and we should be observing year-to-year which significantly dropped. I also don't understand why you keep having shills from NAR keep telling us how great the market is every month when month after month their predictions are ridiculously wrong.

The NAR guy only responded with repeating his talking points, saying "these aren't predictions, these are statistics. Sales went up 2.9%." The DataQuick guy basically said, "yeah, NAR is full of it," although certainly not in so many words.

It was great radio, my friends.

Michael Snyder,

Wow! What's it like being you? Do you just wake up in the morning all goose pimply knowing you get to be you for another day?

Anyone with a brain should be incensed over this deal. To see greedy, stupid people rewarded with tax payer money should make any one angry. To hear people living in $750,000 houses play the victims should make any responsible person angry.

You can wow me all you want with your financial acumen but the facts are still the same. Bear Stearns got in trouble speculating on sub prime loans. You can call them "mortgage backed securities" or whatever the hell you want but BS (good initials) is in the position it's in because it was blinded by greed to the point that math, basic economics and all common sense went out the window.

This whole deal amounts to no more than a sophisticated check kiting scheme and guess who got left with the last bad check which means they got left with all of them?

Yes, the tax payer. Now the people with overpriced homes, the speculators, and the other scum who caused this mess are standing around with their hands stuck out like a bunch of uninsured flood victims.

This should make anyone angry - except people who caused it, like you.

kat,
There's a reason assume is spelled ass-u-me. Congratulations! You've made the first syllable. O' yea, just for the record, being me is a pain, but it's all I've got.

MS,

I could say the same for you. I like my job and don't have any complaints about my financial situation - except the same complaint everyone has. And yes, when someone takes the moral high road in defense of sleaze mongers who are costing the econmy and tax payers billions I get the distinct feeling he or she is a culprit. Dummy me!

Please, remember...

DEAD CATS BOUNCE!
DEAD CATS BOUNCE!!
DEAD CATS BOUNCE!!!

Thank you.

Incredible.

Does anyone still believe anything that comes from the NAR? How many more times do we have to hear them call "bottom" before it really does hit bottom?

P.S.

I will be glad to eat crow if someone credible, not some psuedo economics expert with a RE license (they remind me of notaries who are experts in contract law) will correct me on what the difference between what Bear Sterns and their ilk did and this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Check_fraud

Pay particular attention to the "funds that do not exist" part.

Then tell me and the rest of the fiscally responsible people in California and the rest of the country why we should not be furious.

To hear people living in $750,000 houses play the victims should make any responsible person angry.

Unlike those other victims living out of the LA area in their $300 trailers who like to rant and rave on this blog.

It seems to me that the best indication whether these stats are meaningful is to compare them to last year. Was there an uptick in home sales around March of 2007? I'd be surprised if there weren't; and yet, that wouldn't have evidenced a bottoming-out but only a brief upturn in an otherwise declining market.

Anyway, if anyone has these stats, I'd be interested to see them. Thx.

sfvrealestate asked, "Peter, is there any data for L.A. County?"

SFV, thanks. Yes, there is data, it came from DataQuick earlier this month, and it was awful -- sales down 45% from February 07 levels, prices down 12.9%. I've added that into the article to make it as clear as I can; if there are signs of recovery in the housing market somewhere in America, those signs are not yet evident in Los Angeles.

Get the original data here.

NAR news release: http://preview.tinyurl.com/2j3jkg

Data in PDF format: http://preview.tinyurl.com/2uluts

Comparing February 2007 and February 2008, both seasonally-adjusted and non-seasonally-adjusted sales for the month are down substantially, by double-digits of percent.

This is true for the entire US, as well as for all regions of the country: Northeast, Midwest, South and West.

This is a continuing nationwide free fall, not a recovery.

kat,
while it's possible that at some point, well down the road, the bear "bailout" could end up costing tax payers money, the grand total so far is zero.

the fed doesn't spend tax payers money. congress does. until congress has to step in and save the fed, concentrate on finding some deals before this summer's "frenzy"...

Monk: Master, master, I think that Viagra pill worked. It's moving! I can hear it!

Master: Let's say the housing market makes a bottom, but if there are no buyers around able to afford it, does it make a sound?

The CAR report is out on CAR.org but it's just a subset of the DQ news report.

Actually, Michael, I do have my real estate license... that's why I mock. (a club that will let me in, I don't want to be a member!) It took about two hours of studying (internet course), a 5th grade knowledge of math and 150 multiple choice questions - of which I think you have to get like 8 right (okay, I think it's really 70%). The worst thing is the stat I often hear but don't know for sure of 50% of people taking the test fail.

Having a your real estate license is less impressive than having your drivers license. They have no special knowledge, no insight, no understanding of markets or finance or risk and I just wish more people trusting them with their financial lives understood these facts. THAT'S what makes me so angry. That the overwhelming majority of realtors only care about closing a deal and gaming the market (led by the NAR!) at any and all costs to those they "serve".

DQ reports LA Sales down 34.3 percent from last year. Slowest February since 1988, when they begin to track these numbers.

http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/
RRCA080314.aspx

To repeat NAR numbers is just repeating a lie.

i was looking at homes this weekend without my agent, it happens that the ones I was looking at I had a descent amount of inside information on specific negative details. In the case of both houses the sales agent very bluntly lied to my face about very specific questions. If I was a regular buyer I would have had no idea I had been lied to.

Is this goes to show you what scum these people are in the NAR. Isn't there any ethics at all in the profession? Are there laws against lying to buyers?

Like most cheerleaders, Lawrence Yun is clueless about the world around him. Somehow he has confused "pent-up demand" for him to stop talking in public with demand for housing.

150 multiple choice questions
While there are those who made it into real estate by the skin of their teeth, I also know Realtors who have their MBAs. It didn't take an hour for me to pass that test but we all know there's a long way between passing the test and doing the job. ( You might try the test for a C-10 sometime just for yucks.) This market will cull the herd and hopefully only the pros will remain. To lump all Realtors as scum is just plain inappropriate and frankly it's getting boring. This crisis was created and fueled by decisions made at the very top levels of finance and management. To rant on almost 18 months after the CW meltdown about Realtors and flippers just shows you've missed the boat.

kat,
I used to sit on the e-board of a labor local & I run my own business. As far as I'm concerned the top 2% of management in most of the financial sector belong in jail for fraud. The rank and file employees who just had their retirements wiped out are another thing. Like I said, pop a lude and chill. If you really must vent, call your therapists. If you've got some real insight into the Fed or bond market's next move I'd love to hear it.

I disagree. I think Lawrence Yun knows EXACTLY what he's doing. He has sold his soul and doesn't care about anything but the party line. He's a liar. He's the worst type of scum. Period. And I don't know why when people interview him (and the other obvious cheerleaders). they don't point out that he always says the same thing and is always wrong. (No, not you Peter! ) CNBC makes me more angry, but hey, everything has to be bullish because people don't want to watch bears (or the truth) on tv!

But hey, I also don't know why they don't point out how Cramer is usually wrong, too? Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go celebrate the GOOG I bought at 700 on Cramer's advice.

150 multiple choice questions
Google @ $700??? Ouch!!! I like Cramer & I believe his hearts in the right place but I'm not buying off on gold at $1,600. Fundamentals (according to MS logic) support gold around $600 and oil at about $60. The rest of the price is speculation & panic. I'm just worried about what all of these "risk driven derivatives" will do to the bottom line of the cost of financing. It's important to note that most of the folks trading these instruments have no more ability to cover a margin call or claim than I have to heave my 3/4 ton truck across the street.

To be sure the NAR is full of "it" but are they really worth a BP of 140 over 220?

You guys and your personal attacks really make the blog less enjoyable for the rest of us. Michael Snyder and Kat, why not just stop posting to and about each other and stick to your opinion on the topic at hand?

MS,

A lude dude? Awwwwwsome. Are you as good at being a financial guru wizard guy as you are at being like really cool and cute? Because if you are, you're in trouble.

If you read what I said, you will see that management is who I was talking about. And if you will read further you will see that the way I understand the whole deal, BS under the guise of "hedgef funds" invested in "mortgage backed investments" was kiting money waiting until the mortgage rates rose on all those predatory loans. That would be the ones taken out by people whose mortgage payments exceeded their income.

Yea, you money expert guys are a bunch of darn geniuses. Are you also one of those really like smart financial guys who told people to buy million dollar three bedroom homes as "investments".

I didn't really buy GOOG at 700, it was just the joke/point of Cramer, realtors and other "experts" who are wrong more than they're right and have a STRONG bias to buying.

Michael, I don't care if someone has their MBA, I care if they're smart, hungry and honest. I know many MBA's and many people who went to Harvard who just aren't that smart (many who are) and some of the smartest and most creative people I've worked with barely (or probably didn't) finish high school.

And I completely agree that in any profession there's the few good, the majority of sheep and the bad, I think the public perception of having a realtor's license and the reality are very far out of alignment. And I'm ranting on because the real estate complex continues to operate the same exact way... I think if you and I sat down for a beer, we'd agree on many things. I also thing you say many things to get a rise or try and maintain a front for business.

Buy land in Bella Vista Arkansas.

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Peter Viles
Peter Viles, senior producer for Real Estate at LATimes.com, has worked as a reporter for the Associated Press and CNN, and has written for portfolio.com. He lives on the Westside of Los Angeles with his wife, fashion designer Stacy Johnson, and their two children.

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