L.A. listing prices flat, inventory inches higher

Median listing prices in Greater L.A. were essentially flat over the last week, falling $100, as the inventory of unsold homes and condos inched slightly higher, according to Housing Tracker's analysis of MLS listings.

Highlights:

-- Median listing prices fell to $459,900, a decline of 2.1% in the last month and 16.2% in the last year.
-- The inventory of unsold houses and condos rose to 42,038, which is 27.6% ahead of last year's levels. 

Date               Median listing price                   Inventory
4/06               $579,666                                     27,251
4/07               $545,000                                     35,489
5/07               $545,000                                     38,297
6/07               $540,000                                     40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07               $535,000                                     42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07               $529,000                                     44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07               $520,000                                     46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07             $510,000                                     46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07             $499,900                                     46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07             $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)     43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08               $479,900 (down 12.6%)           40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08               $475,000 (down 13.5%)           43,625 (Up 38.3%)
3/10/08         $465,500 (down 15.4%)            41,838 (Up 32.3%)
3/17/08         $464,900 (down 15.5%)            42,098 (Up 31.4%)
3/24/08         $460,000 (down 16.2%)            41,934 (Up 27.2%)
3/31/08         $459,900 (down 16.2%)            42,038 (Up 27.6%)

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.

Comments

[Dylan]

Something funny is going on with these numbers... I think this is under-estimated. L.A looks like a dirty expensive stink whole with all the murders, motorvehicle, economical, and air pollution problems. I'm about to move back to the area and seriously reconsidering it..

[waitingitout]

Interesting that the 75th percentile keeps climbing. In just 2 months the median list has dropped 3.8% (seriously!) and the 25th percentile 4.4%. And yet the 75th percentile is up a couple points.

Not sure if things are selling for list at the high end, but at least folks have the bones to list 'em.

[Laker]

For those leftys that might jump in excitement over the increase in the 75% percentile....
I have received during the last week about 5 new listings in the $1M range for houses really worth half. So we got brand new expensive listings that would not sell...Give it another month or two, and the high end would slide faster than the low end...
careful please down the hill...

[shockg]

Peter, you call 96 more listings inching up? Talk about reaching. Hows that rental treating you?

[victor knopp]

its simple construction wages have not moved in generations,we can thank our south american friends for that,it makes it that much easyer for builders to steal our equity,whats left of it anyway.building costs on land allready owned has not risen anywhere near the selling value of a home,builders could steal another 30%of housing value and still double there money,please keep building at our expence

[eternal summer]

Hi Peter,

Who is buying right now with the tighter lending standards? I been wondering for the past 7 years who has been buying and now I know who bought before the bubble popped. But if they now have to verify incomes and have some money down who is buying (besides the very rich who buy no matter what) That would be an article worth reading. How to obtain this data? Could you talk to some realtors and ask them to be honest? They keep saying foreigners, but are foreigners even interested in the nicer parts of Torrance as a vacation home? I think not.

[srla]

When you consider that may higher priced areas have yet to fall (and some have even continued to rise), this enormous year-on-year decline is all the more astonishing. I knew prices would come down, but I had no idea it would happen so fast.

Of course, given that your average proto-crack house in South Central was going for $500,000 (see Dr. Housing Bubble's "Real Homes of Genius"), it makes perfect sense that such areas are leading the charge in the pricing collapse.

I guess suddenly it doesn't seem so desirable to own that lovely 1.5 bedroom 650 square foot gem in Compton, and certainly not at a price that is 8 times the regional median income.

[Winfield J. Abbe]

People who financed homes should realize that just because they walk away and the mortgage holder takes over the property and sells it, if the market does not provide enough money to payoff the loan balance, the mortgagee is responsible for the deficiency. The same thing happens with anything else too, like automobile loans. The amount owed is provided by the contract signed at the closing of the loan and has nothing to do with the fluctuating market value. Everyone of these irresponsible barrowers who walked away from their homes and did not make the payments, lived there for "free" a while, and possibly even caused damage to it as they left or robbed it of appliances or anything else which belonged with the house, must be vigorously sued and prosecuted by the mortage holder for the deficiency and their credit further ruined so they won't be able to engage in such irresponsible action in the future, just like the recording industry vigorously went after those illegally downloading copyrighted recordings. Criminal charges should also be filed should criminal damage or theft be documented when the mortgage company takes possession. The mortgage companies are now finding out what it is like to be a landlord since we face similar problems every day of the year. The only difference is the government does not bail us out. In fact, the government passes laws which favor the irresponsible behavor of tenants. This is what our once great country has degenerated to: A CESSPOOL. In California, for example, it can take six months to a year to "legally" evict tenants guilty of garden variety theft by deception, fraud and criminal damage to property. A similar store front buisness would receive "free" and immediate "justice" by simply calling the police and having them charged with trespassing as a motel, for example. But not only do landlords receive the shaft from government, they are forced to have money extorted from them by the mafia type courts they must use to evict these similar criminals.
Both political parties are responsible for this totally illegal treatment of landlords vs. store front business in complete violation of the equal protection clause of the U.S. and California Constitutions among other violations.
All this is part of the continuing decline of the old USA.
Landlords lose billions of dollars every year with this contemptable treatment by government. Every mortgage holder has a civic duty to apply every legal means to force these deadbeats to pay up and/or be placed in jail where most of them belong with the other criminals. This is basically a gang rape of all responsible citizens and the mortgage companies by irreponsible criminals. To H...l with them!

[Rich]

The decline of sales and buildup of inventory from Fall '07 to this first week of April '08, even while prices are declining (the factor that should have reversed the trends of the first two) has been a remarkably pure trend accentuated by coinciding with the traditional market Winter off-season. But from this week forward (the traditional start of the house-hunting season in most parts of the country subject to Winter weather) the trend will get muddy as buyers begin to show up for houses at different levels of discount. From this week forward I expect it will become a lot more difficult to find "pure" statistical trends as buying activity may actually boost some of the failing numbers. This doesn't mean we're at a bottom, but it means only people with reams of statistical information at their disposal would be able to determine what numbers go with which crossing trend. Inventory could continue to build even while prices creep up, but average prices could creep down even if interest rates go down, etc. I expect going forward that we'll do a lot of guessing and bickering here about where the market is going because discount buys will start cancelling out the numbers for inventory. It's been a lot of fun watching a pure market correction unfold, but going forward the market will never look as simple and obvious as it has in this first Winter of discontent...

[LeavinLA]

Winfield: What part of "non-recourse" do you not understand?

[Laker]

shockg, I knew some of you leftys will jump out and scream.
Leave Peter alone, he is saving money every month and seeing the next door house depreciate by $3000 every week like the rest of us.
You on the other hand, are scared seeing your property(ies) losing value and the F word getting closer to you.... With F word i mean Foreclosure of course.
Checking these numbers every week can produce some volatility so, look at the monthly numbers to "smooth" the curves. You'll clearly see the trend!

[Norman P.]

Wrong, Abbe. The average cost to sue one defaulter is a little over $50,000. Go up to Stockton, and do the math. Suing would also open up the Pandora's box of why did the lender give out no doc liar loans. And the IRS doesn't care about the difference between the money owed and the sale price. The government passed a bill last year to ensure this cannot happen. So that's why people are bailing out in droves, and are grinning like Alfred E. Bush.

[Long time listener . . .]

Winfield J. Abbe, I'm not sure you understand the walk-away/foreclosure process. If you walk away from your house, the bank's recourse under the mortgage contract is to foreclose. This makes sense, they loaned you money to buy the house, and you gave them the house as collateral in case you weren't able to pay off the loan. If the banks properly assessed the value of the property they were loaning on, they wouldn't be taking huge losses. Anyway, if they foreclose, they now own the house, and if they sell it for less then the old mortgage, that's their loss, not the mortgagee who was foreclosed on. That's the law in a non-recourse state like California. They cannot sue you for the deficiency.

Additionally, your disdain for renters assumes that the government should favor landlords over renters. Historically, landlords have treated renters horribly, and slumlords were common. That's why renter-protection laws were enacted, because renters are often much poorer than landlords, and are not able to advocate on their own behalf adequately. So the law protects them from over-reaching landlords. I don't see much wrong with that. As a landlord, you get rent (which should cover the cost of owning plus some additional profit) plus you get tax deductions. The renter gets none of that. That's why there is some risk in being a landlord, but there is also a big payoff if done properly. Landlords that get burned are like banks that get burned by walk-away mortgagees, they should have done a better credit check.

[mommy]

"Who is buying right now with the tighter lending standards? I been wondering for the past 7 years who has been buying and now I know who bought before the bubble popped. But if they now have to verify incomes and have some money down who is buying (besides the very rich who buy no matter what) That would be an article worth reading."

Just wanted to say that my husband and I finally made the leap -- we are in escrow on a repo in Long Beach, 90808. Sales price is $429,900 -- others in that neighborhood (Lakewood Village) are from mid-500s to $900k (though much larger and better updated). We're putting down 10%, and will be financing at 6%. We're buying because we took a giant hit on our taxes this year not owning a home, and the mortgage payment will be pretty close to what we pay for rent.

Secondly, I wanted to respond to Winfield: "People who financed homes should realize that just because they walk away and the mortgage holder takes over the property and sells it, if the market does not provide enough money to payoff the loan balance, the mortgagee is responsible for the deficiency."

This is no longer true, I believe.... my friends who bought near Sacramento 2 years ago and are concluding a short sale for about $200k less than the loan amount WILL NOT HAVE TO PAY the money back, NOR will they have to pay the taxes on the $200k "income." This is my understanding from our last conversation. Their agent faxed them some new regulation that makes them exempt from paying... I'd be curious to know the details on that, though...

[amir]

Winfield,
you live in fantasy land. I don't even where to begin with your rant.

The people leaving the houses are not criminals. The banks gave loans they should not have authorized and the banks now suffer. The loans were mostly non-recourse.

As for your miserable example of the record companies... how has that been working for the music business? It hasn't.

You seem to have misdirected anger at your tenants. Choose better ones next time.

[Truth2Pwr]

And we care about listing prices why? The only thing this data tells us is that there is still a LOT of capitulation left to come in the $500K - $900K range from delusional would-be sellers fishing for suckers. Wanna sell your standard issue nondescrepit cookie cutter tract house for $700K? Good luck! The market is saying: "If you think it's worth so much, keep it". And with all of the pent up overhang, the market is NOT going to cave in to the sellers again for many many years.

[CD]

Check out OCrenter at bubbletracking.blogspot.com
He is posting all the numbers today. It's the wild west again.

[puckhead]

Eternal summer asked who is buying? Well, I know of a few friends that have bought the last few months and I’m always looking for a larger house in certain neighborhoods. Loans are no problem if you have good credit and can put some money down. For me, buying a house is a zero sum game. I have lots of equity in my current house and I’m in no danger of going under water. I fully expect prices to come down more, but that would mean that the price of a new home AND my current home will both go down, so it’s a wash. The only thing I’ll loose is that my RE taxes will be a bit higher if I buy a new house now as oppose to 9 months from now. But I’ll take that risk if I can find the “right” house. The problem is that in the neighborhoods I’m looking at, the listings are still scarce and prices have not come down all that much. I suspect that’s the same in many more established neighborhoods. People have enough equity in their house and make enough money that this whole housing think is just so much white noise.

[Danny]

These are all LISTING prices. Listen to this piece from yesterday's All Things Considered (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/
story.php?storyId=89225406&ref=patrick.net) and you will see why listing prices are rising. In a typical market a seller will list their home for 12% more than they honestly think it's worth. In a downswinging market like our own, they list their homes for 33% more than they think they're worth. Yeah. You read that right. It's a psychological defense against losing money.

[Loooco]

Winfield,

Sorry to burst your bubble, but California law prohibits deficiency judgments if the home was purchased as a primary residence and used as such.

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Waitingitout, like you said, if a few more of the old 75% percentile or above want to exit the sinking ship and put their houses on the market, you will see the 75% percentile number move up.

So, I see that as a sign of increasing panic upstairs among the Bellamys while the servants downstairs have already been beaten senseless, thus explaining the lack of movement there.

[victor knopp]

i know this sounds totaly off subject,however the truth is unchecked immigration has destoryed the america we all grew up in,from the bottom to the top ,we can see it in the electorate,whats left of our industrial states can only pray that thay are not destoryed by immigration and its devalueing effects,while the farmers can only make it with emmigrants,totaly opposing values,let the so called intilted farmers move to patagonia and take there wage depreaciting laborors with them and maybe,maybe,we could recover

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

I once read that when a flea takes off, it acclerates at about 300G, whereas the pride of Man's achievement, the Space Shuttle, pales in comparison and embarrassment as it goes at a snail-like (nothing wrong with snails and turtles, mind you) 3G during takeoff.

Of course, the typical anthropocentric/anthropophile/anthro-chauvinist would counter that Nature is not so special, for man can make a rifle bullet go also at about 300G in the barrel or so. Too bad it's not so peaceful. It's only used to maim or kill.

Anyway, you human geniuses, don't get too down on yourselves. Perhaps, your housing market can collapse faster than 300G and once again put Nature in her place (and making this post LALand relevant).

And now I have to go to a flea market to see if the prices there can take off at 300G...you never know, with the inflation we are having these days. Ciao!

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Hi Peter,

Who is buying right now with the tighter lending standards? I been wondering for the past 7 years who has been buying and now I know who bought before the bubble popped. But if they now have to verify incomes and have some money down who is buying (besides the very rich who buy no matter what) That would be an article worth reading. How to obtain this data? Could you talk to some realtors and ask them to be honest? They keep saying foreigners, but are foreigners even interested in the nicer parts of Torrance as a vacation home? I think not. - eternal summer

-------------

Eternal summer, I doubt they are Japanese. They lost their Samurai shirt the last time they bought Yankee Doodle dirt.

[Inland Empire]

"Who is buying right now with the tighter lending standards?

Those with good credit, those with large downs, windfall money, inheritances, trust funds, other properties that they can get loans on to provide downs for the others etc etc etc. Not everyone is a renter who views this market as something dreadful and waiting for it to fall drastically further. I have lost four houses in two months in bidding (over, under, the same as asking). I have not even gotten to see eight other houses because they were gone within hours of being listed. So yes, someone is buying.

[left of lefty]

hi mommy,

congratulations. lakewood is a good area, as is bixby knolls to the west. i was in bixby knolls over the weekend to look at some reos. it does take effort to find something affordable in a good area, but they do exist.

as for the taxes on the forgiven mortgage -- my understanding is that there is no federal tax due. however, you still have to pay state income tax on that amount, unless the state legislature follows the federal government with a similar law.

[Anxious]

The idea that some people and governmental officials are buying into - that we can afford and its makes sense to lower the principal balance of troubled mortgages - is nuts. Everybody has seen depreciating values. Why should a chosen few who decide or have decided to walk closer to the edge, get relief while others face their obligations.

Further, the HMDA (Home Mortgage Disclosure Act) needs to go. There is no racism in lending. The mortgage industry would have underwritten a loan to my Labrador Retriever and he would been a better risk than so many of those who received loans and now want to skip out on their obligations.

The saying goes, there is no such thing as a free lunch. But there was. And there still might be.