Foreclosures, falling prices and billboards

A bunch of headlines today all deserve posts of their own. But, as Kennedy said, life is not fair, so they get lumped into a roundup:

--Foreclosure activity in California rose 7.25% from December to January and is pacing 120% ahead of year-ago levels, according to RealtyTrac.

--In a dismal report on January home sales, the California Association of Realtors said sales fell 29.8% from year-ago levels, median prices fell 21.9% from year-ago levels, and inventory spiked to 16.8 months' worth of unsold homes. Prices in Los Angeles were down 18.4%, sales were down 38.1%.

--Listing prices in greater L.A. fell by $100 over the past week, to $469,900, a decline of 14.6% from year-ago levels, according to Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listings. Inventory of unsold houses and condos was flat at 41,849, an increase of 32.2% over year-ago levels.

--In the biggest news of all in the Viles household, L.A. Land is now being promoted on electronic billboards all over town. Don't drive off  the road trying to read them. But when you get home, go to the blog and hit "refresh" 27 times.

Thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo Credit: An electronic billboard featuring L.A. Land, from Bus Blog

Comments

[MB Watcher]

Oh, hey, the Times finally figured out that they have an RE blog!

What about having it promoted in the weekly "real estate" section (which is otherwise scrubbed and polished of almost all downbeat information) and/or in dailies about developments in RE?

Let's assume the ad dept. doesn't talk to editorial. (Learned that lesson.) So let's get editorial to reach the same realization as advertising: this is a good thing we do and we should promote it whenever we have the chance.

[Laker]

LA Times might be losing revenue from NAR/CAR/Home builders but it sure gaining revenue from exponentially increasing traffic to/from LA LAND to other pages of LA Times and its advertising links...
Way to go Peter!

btw: we the commenters don't expect any kick backs...nor commissions...just for you to keep doing the good job and keep the NAR/CAR/etc crying and of course keep lefty buying in metro LA. (by now, Left must own quarter of westside already...)

[pathetic]

As usual, Hawaii is behind the times but it looks as though the media there continue to be shills for the RE industry or just can't comprehend all the factors involved in the market. The headline is "January's foreclosure rate hints at easing". http://starbulletin.com/2008/02/26/business/
story01.html One month does not a trend make.

Apparently Hawaii's RE personnel are no more astute than Gary Watts and his ilk. In fact check this link out. "Lone Ranger" and/or "Reel Estatement" seem even more incompetent or dishonest.

http://www.topix.net/forum/source/honolulu-star-
bulletin/TUKLMCG1D9LLLO4H2#lastPost

[Hula Girl]

Sweet. Now you can have your own LaLa Land Reality Show: Foreclose This House with your host Peter Viles.

Ahh, Petey Boy, We knew ya when...

[Ace]

Peter,

I hate to ask... but... the advertising on the blog seems to have disappeared lately. I remember the flashing Macy's ads and the obtrusive pop ups. Now all I see is a 'find a home' search box.

I like the site without the ads.. but I want to make sure that you are getting paid.

[Dr. JwB]

I think Pete's show should be called "First to Tears".

Two realtors will compete for a cash prize.

In one room, Realtor A tells the owners what their house is now worth compared to last year (they will cry).

Then in another room Realtor B tells the prospective buyers how much the house still costs despite recent price drops. Once they realize that they cannot afford it, they will cry.

First Realtor to cause their couple to cry, wins!

[don byrd]

a side effect of the falling prices and foreclosures is
the impact it will have on the assessed values for tax purposes. surely, people are going to start petitioning the tax assessors to reduce the taxable base, which will reduce tax income, and cause many public services to be under funded or unfunded.

[Ariel Climer]

Oh, poor California babies. Having to sell their homes at half a million. I'm playing a tiny baby's violin for them.

[El Guapo]

Maybe the most mind-boggling statistic to me, was sort of buried in the fine print. California had a 21.9% annual drop median price from a year ago. There was a 9.7% drop in just the last month! This looks like the proverbial rush to the exits.

Also saw this stat today from a commentor on Bill Fleckenstein's site: 19,145 existing home sales in CA last month, 19,821 foreclosures in the same month.

[CM]

Prices need to come down at least to 2003 levels to make buying a house worthwhile. The fraud that inflated houses to stratospheric levels is disgraceful.

I personally know several people who happily broadcast to everyone how much their house had inflated in a year now in serious financial trouble. Those paper gains were taken out and replaced with a very large mortgage tethered to their neck with an ridiculous teaser rate ARM. It is now choking them to death. They will most likely mail the keys back to the Lender and go and rent.

Seriously, I mean, who could NOT see this coming?

[sirimiri]

Follow the historical curves, showing price/income data for the past few decades. Follow it to the point where it utterly disconnects for Southern California, starting, let's say...2003.

A reversion to the mean is in order.

[mbob]

Your foray into fame gives a whole new meaning to the reality show venue known as "house shows" where Donny Bonaduce, et al are corraled into a house and the results taped.
Let's see...you, Lefty, the NAR PR guy.......heh heh

[Kevin]

I saw the billboard on Pico yesterday and was kind of surpised to see the Times so loudly touting one of its blogs as well, journalism.

I guess what bothered me most was the tag line "Appraise the housing market here". While I know this was probably something that a marketing person came up with, I was bothered by the Times promoting L.A. Land in these terms.

Sure, I may be showing my distaste for cheerleading a bust, but for all the trash-talking heaped on biased Boom appraisers on this site, is L.A. Land really a balanced place to assess the market?

[J.Ho]

A lot of people made a killing flipping houses on subprime financing - no one complained back then.

[American]

This is your typical Real Estate transaction. How many pending home sales have failed because Banks are going back to the old lending standard? You know, 20% down, great credit, and a stable job? You're going to see many of these "back on market, buyer didn't qualify with lender..."

Description
Back to the market. Tft buyer could not qualify.

ZipRealty Price Track:

Price Reduced: 09/01/07 -- $650,000 to $549,000
Price Reduced: 09/10/07 -- $549,000 to $499,900
Price Reduced: 10/10/07 -- $499,900 to $475,000

On Market: 251 days

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/
search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=734151&page=7&
property_type=SFR&mls=mls_ca_ba&cKey=k975sjjg&
source=CAREIL

[IToldu2CashOut]

I plan on writing my congressman and both our state Senators that I'm leaving the Democratic Party if there is a bailout of these crooks and morons. I lost 10k in the stock market before I pulled everything out. These people have made what should have been a basically strong ecomomy look like a train wreck. I lose money they get rich. THANKS to these crooked banks and recless borrowers, now I get 3% interest so that the banks can make even more money at my expense. To add even more insult to injury they are talking about bailing them out with my tax dollars! This makes it even more difficult for someone who used wise judgement and common sense to buy a house. For the first time in my life I'm starting to feel a little like a conservative (not Bush, he's for a bailout to!)

[yoda]

This blog is a daily read for me. Always updated. Sometimes several times per day. Keeps me coming back for more info. I would really like to see a comment section added to the online edition of the Times for every article similar to the sf chronicle (sfgate).

[Susan]

Peter, this blog just might end up saving the L.A. Times, if the paper is affected by declining ad revenues from realtors.

[sunsetbeachguy]

All of you people looking for 2003 prices (which I agree was the beginning of the stratospheric blowoff) are forgetting about revulsion & overshoot.

You will be a knifecatcher at 2003 prices!

Once Peter's blog has been canceled because no one wants to think about real estate, the bottom will be near and it will overshoot 2003 prices.

[Babalu]

I'm a NY reader enjoying your posts, following the snarkiness and the drama for months. I hope to see rents in LA. county dropping in line with the housing prices by late this year because I want to move there to be close to the movie industry.

My area of NY metro has seen sale price depreciation of approx. 5.6%, and there are For sale signs in abundance, but nothing that approaches the drama and desperation of So. Cal. I think this is because I'm close to Manhattan where average incomes are higher and house flipping didn't catch on here in a big way. Why do you think the house flippers latched onto the Southern California market and skipped over so many high priced areas?

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Perhaps a raise is coming soon?

[TakeFive]

Congratulations Pete.

Gigs on Nightline and CBS and now this. I suspect by next year you'll be a presenter at the Academy awards.

[Tim K.]

First off, Peter, congratulations. You've shown the LA Times you've got a product worth promoting and there's no better show of faith than that.

Second - those CAR statistics - is there any chance that the LA Times Real Estate Print Edition will ever see it fit to start printing these wonderful numbers and charts, just to redeem themselves to their faithful readers and demonstrate that they are no longer in the palm of the Realtors(TM)?

[Rob]

A blog is only as good as it readers. Here is to the wise that have congregated here. Sorry Lefty....

I have learned so much here in the past year+.

[shireen]

It is true that this site is what introduced me to the Los Angeles Times and now I am a daily reader of both the on-line paper and this blog!