L.A. Land

The rapidly changing landscape of the real estate market in Los Angeles and beyond

Category: January 2008

| L.A. Land Home |

L.A.: America's biggest bubble, biggest price drops

January 29, 2008 |  9:49 am

189542eA couple of noteworthy headlines from the S&P/Case-Shiller housing price index today: According to Case-Shiller data, L.A. still has America's biggest housing price gains since 2000 (aka America's biggest housing bubble), but L.A. prices are falling faster than any other city in America.

Falling prices: These are the biggest price declines measured by Case-Shiller from October 2007 to November 2007:
Los Angeles    -3.6%
San Diego       -3.4%
Las Vegas       -3.2%
San Fran.       -3.2%
Phoenix          -3.1%

If you are keeping track, Case-Shiller reports L.A.'s price index has declined 11.9% in the past year.

Biggest bubble: These are the price indexes, which measure price appreciation from a base of 100 in the year 2000:
Los Angeles:  240.43
Miami:          237.99
Washington: 223.45
San Diego     209.60

Thoughts? Comments? Questions? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.
Photo Credit: "Cloudy morning at city hall," submitted to Your Scene at LATimes.com by Dan Simpson.


One in three sub-prime mortgages delinquent

January 29, 2008 |  8:39 am

Here's a shocking (no irony intended) piece of news from Countrywide Financial this morning: "Countrywide Financial,  the largest U.S. mortgage lender, Tuesday said more than one in three sub-prime mortgages were delinquent at year-end..."  Countrywide said borrowers were delinquent on 33.64% of sub-prime loans it serviced as of Dec. 31, up from 29.08% in September, and that said borrowers were at least 90 days late on payments on 17.25% of sub-prime mortgages.

Now, here's a shocking (irony intended) piece of news from Countrywide: The company reported a loss of $422 million, or 79 cents a share, for the fourth quarter. No big surprise here, but the loss was deeper than analysts expected, and Countrywide's most recent guidance had been that it would make a profit in the fourth quarter.

In announcing a $1.2 billion loss in the third quarter, Countrywide said that would be the bottom: "We view the third quarter of 2007 as an earnings trough, and anticipate that the Company will be profitable in the fourth quarter and in 2008," Countrywide president David Sambol said in a press release on Oct. 26.  "Over the longer term, we believe that prospects for the U.S. housing and mortgage markets, as well as for Countrywide, remain very attractive."

The L.A.Times reports that, while Bank of America says it has every intention of continuing with its announced purchase of Countrywide, some investors are betting the deal will be renegotiated: "At Monday's closing stock prices, Bank of America's offer was worth $7.50 a share. But Countrywide stock was at $5.95, reflecting sentiment that the price could fall if Countrywide's troubles persisted."

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.


Listing prices down 102K from peak

January 28, 2008 |  8:14 pm

Median listing prices in greater L.A. slipped another $1,900 over the past week, and are now running 12.9% below year-ago levels, according to Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listing data.

Highlights: Listing prices dropped to $478,000; inventory of unsold homes and condos rose to 41,552, an increase of 33.8% over year-ago levels.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
DateMedian listing priceyoy changeMLS inventoryyoy change
4/06$579,666n/a27,251n/a
4/07$545,000n/a35,489n/a
5/07$545,000n/a38,297n/a
6/07$540,000n/a40,766+20.4%
7/07$535,000n/a42,685+14.5%
8/07$529,000n/a44,483+13.6%
9/07$520,000n/a46,414+16.9%
10/07$510,000n/a46,603+15.6%
11/07$499,900n/a46,503+19.0%
12/07$495,000-10.0%43,174+28.2%
1/14/08$480,000-12.6%41,122+34.9%
1/28/08$478,000-12.9%41,552+33.8%

Thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com


Manhattan Beach mystery: Who is "Deep Throat?"

January 28, 2008 |  5:41 pm

18445592 There, do I have your attention now?

Seriously, the headline comes from a quote in a fun profile today of one of my favorite mystery bloggers, Manhattan Beach Confidential, whose identity is cause for speculation in the South Bay: "I call him Deep Throat," said Greg Maffei of RE/MAX Execs. "I like how he's no-holds-barred, says what he feels. But the thing that gave it validity is that I had clients asking me what I thought about the site."

If you haven't read the blog, its reporting is very specific -- down to individual listings, how long they've been languishing on the market, and how they compare in price and value to similar listings in Manhattan Beach.  Great for readers, but a little bit too much information for some real estate pros: "People who do this kind of thing have nothing better to do," grumbles Jack Gillespie of South Bay Brokers. "To just prey on the real estate community, that's fine, but have the guts to stick your name out there and your number. To me, it's just a gutless act."

What say you, MB Confidential? He (she?) tells the Daily Breeze: "
I am trying to help potential buyers (as well as home sellers) see through the fog," he writes in an e-mail. "I'm trying to provide the sort of service I would have appreciated having in the past. All of that is not meant to feed some jihad against Realtors, but out of a desire to see a more fair marketplace."

A sliver of news in the story: MB Confidential's blog posts were being published in a local print paper, the Easy Reader, but the newspaper pulled the column after complaints about the writer's anonymity.

Full Disclosure: MB Confidential has generated many, many items for this blog. I have no earthly idea who writes the blog, but I like it.
 
Your thoughts? Comments? Email story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo Credit: LATimes

 


Walk away from your mortgage, or stay?

January 28, 2008 | 12:46 pm

28441569We live in a speed-of-light world. Brand-new problem? Go to www.solveyourbrandnewproblem.com.  Is it a scam? A wonderful new business? A public service? Who knows, but it's there in an instant. Internet surfers, beware.

In that spirit, two links that readers have sent my way: Make The Bank Wait -- a website advertising a book (only $9.95!) that promises to tell you ways to delay foreclosure. For only $9.95, you can "Read the story of how a seemingly helpless and unfortunate homeowner excercised his right to keep his home ... and there was absolutely NOTHING the bank could do but wait!"

For those with itchy feet and a budget of roughly 100 times that -- $995 -- there is You Walk Away, which promises to tell you the best, simplest way to, yes, walk away from your mortgage. I'm not sure why it requires three payments of $332 to learn how to walk, but this website encourages you to "Unshackle yourself today  from a losing investment and use our proven method to Walk Away."

Blogger's bloviation: Please do not take this post as an endorsement or recommendation of these links. I post them only for the (small) news value that they embody -- the news that American businesses are finding ways every day to profit from foreclosure and foreclosure anxiety. Relatedly, remember that the entire mortgage crisis developed in part because government lacks the ability, the interest and the imagination to effectively monitor and regulate fast-changing industries like the mortgage industry. It's a safe assumption that the government cannot keep up with new businesses like these. You're on your own out there. Be careful.

Thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.
Photo Credit: LATimes.com


Update: L.A. Land, 'Condoblue' on KPCC

January 28, 2008 | 10:11 am

A programming note, and a bit of self-promotion: I'll be a guest on the Patt Morrison show on KPCC radio today discussing the foreclosure crisis at roughly 1:20 p.m. local time. But here's the bigger news: Also on the program is Condoblue, the commenter here who set off a small firestorm by writing about walking away from a mortgage. Should be an interesting discussion.

Update: You can find a link to the audio about halfway down this page. Enjoy.


'60 Minutes' on the housing 'house of cards'

January 28, 2008 |  9:39 am

60_kroftnew_12708_100x75_2 Good morning. "60 Minutes" again demonstrates why it is the best in the business -- the business of for-profit television news -- with this takeout on the mortgage crisis, titled "House of Cards."

Highlights of the Steve Kroft report: "It sounds complicated but it's really fairly simple: Banks lent hundreds of billions of dollars to homebuyers who can't pay them back."

A Stockton real estate agent on homeowners facing foreclosure: "They were never really invested. Most of the people who lost the houses didn’t lose any money because they never put any money down. Though their credit is damaged, and they could face legal action in some circumstances, they got to live in a new house for a couple of years, and some of them even managed to get some money with home equity loans or by refinancing."

Another Stockton agent, Jerry Abbott: "They were getting loans in excess of 100 percent of the value of the property," Abbott says. "That type of thing. So, most of 'em were actually putting a little bit of money in their pocket at close of escrow."

"So, they were getting paid to buy a house?" Kroft asks.

"They were getting paid to buy a house. Yes. Yeah," Abbott says.

The entire piece is worth reading, or watching. Plenty of blame to go around, Wall Street does not get off easily. And there is the (now) requisite interview with homeowners who are thinking about walking away from their mortgage. Your thoughts? Comments? Insights? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo Credit: CBS News


Mozilo to forgo $37 million of severance pay

January 27, 2008 | 10:07 pm

31893826_2Late news from the AP tonight: "Countrywide Financial CEO Angelo Mozilo, under fire over the size of his potential payout from the proposed sale of his troubled mortgage company, says he is forfeiting some $37.5 million in severance pay, fees and perks he was scheduled to receive upon his retirement."

More: "Mozilo, however, will still retain retirement benefits and deferred compensation that he has already earned, Countrywide said in a statement being released Monday."

Here's the Countrywide press release, in which Mozilo (pictured) says, "I believe this decision is the right thing to do as Countrywide works toward the successful completion of the merger with Bank of America."

The AP figures Mozilo still has roughly $44 million coming to him: "Now, he'll leave with a pension plan and supplemental executive retirement plan that totaled $23.8 million as of December 2006, according to the most recent proxy statement the company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.  Mozilo also accrued about $20.6 million in deferred compensation, according to the filing."

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.
Photo credit: Bloomberg News


Tree of the week

January 26, 2008 |  8:16 am

Good morning. I see rays of sunshine in the back yard this morning, which is a welcome, if temporary, sight.  I also see some blooming flowers, which is a reminder that even in the rainy days of January, L.A. dazzles. Pieter Severynen does too, with another installment of "Tree of the Week."

The Evergreen Pear - Pyrus kawakamii

"The 20-odd species of pear trees come in two kinds: (edible) fruiting and ornamental. The evergreen pear is one of the ornamentals. Left to its own devices this mainland China and Taiwan native grows into a sprawling 15-25’ tall and wide big shrub, but our custom and taste is to shape it into a bare-trunked single or multi stem tree.  This is accomplished by staking the trunk until it is self-supporting, cutting off any would-be branches sprouting along the trunk and selecting and shortening the long branches in the crown that grow in every direction to upward and outward facing buds, thus establishing a structural framework. Treated this less-than-natural way, the evergreen pear becomes an elegant open-structured small weeping tree with gracefully pendulous branches and drooping branchlets.

"Part of the Rose family, the tree is evergreen when the climate cooperates; in cold winters it may be partially deciduous. But the glossy, oval, 2-4” long leaves turn purple or red in winter. New growth is shiny light green. During good years spectacular clusters of white flowers completely cover the tree anytime from November to spring. Hard pruning prevents flowering. The tiny, ½” fruit, if it forms at all, is buff to black in color. The rough, deeply furrowed charcoal gray bark looks attractively picturesque, especially after rain. 

"Once established, the tree needs little pruning. It can live from 50 to 150 years. Very tolerant of a range of soils, it loves full sun and gets by on moderate watering. But it suffers from fireblight, especially in wet winters. This bacterial disease turns isolated shoots and branches brown or black, making them look as if they went through a fire. The remedy to this usually non-fatal but contagious pest problem is to remove the affected branches 8-12” below the dieback point. Lesser problems that may also diminish the value of this otherwise beautiful small tree are a leaf spot disease that causes partial defoliation and sometimes aphids or scale."

Thanks, Pieter.
Email Pieter: plseve@earthlink.net
Photo Credit: www.sheridangardens.com


'Condoblue' explains: Why I'm walking away

January 25, 2008 | 10:43 am

An update this morning from Condoblue. For those of you just joining us, Condoblue is the poster who plans to walk away from a mortage and move into a new home -- even if it means foreclosure. Reaction here was split on whether Blue's decision was a smart business move, or a sign of poor personal character. Condoblue read your comments and responds this morning:

"As the original poster, I'd like to add some facts to the story since there have been so many assumptions made about my situation. Apparently, it hit quite a nerve, judging from the torrent of postings.

"I did not get House #1 with a liar loan; it was fully documented. I could have put money down but chose to hold on to my cash. As it turns out, the value has dropped so much, it would have just been money down the drain anyway. I never planned to flip the place or make a quick buck (although I don't see anything wrong with making money). I just figured I'd sell or refinance it before the ARM readjusted. At the time I was looking, it was one of the cheapest condos I could find in a decent area.

"I don't have a grudge against big companies (hell, I work for one) or feel like I'm 'sticking it to the man.' Like many posters have said, it's just business.

I have a good income, credit, and savings, so am qualified to buy House #2 using my savings as a down payment. I have adequate income to meet the lenders' debt ratios to cover both homes, and then some. Servicing the debt is not an issue. Ironically, House #2 is a short sale.

When I applied for the loan on House #2, I expected the lender to question the upside-down status of House #1 (they can Zillow as well as I can), but they approved the loan with no questions or issues. I was surprised that they didn't even ask how much the new ARM payment on House #1 would be, but was told that they don't take that into consideration. Huh?

As for Big Lender on House #1, I called their loan department to see if I could refinance the mortgages and was told they don't refi homes with negative equity. I asked the loan officer if they have any programs available for people in my situation. He said he didn't know of anything, but that they did have loan counseling people available, but you have to fill out a questionnaire first before they'll talk to you. So I called another 800 number to get the questionnaire and requested it via their automated voice system. That was 2 weeks ago; no questionnaire (not that I have a hardship anyway). Later, buried on Big Lender's website, I saw where they supposedly contact borrowers 4 months before their loan reset, which would be early February. We'll see.

In terms of selling House #1, this is a cookie cutter condo in a town full of them, so it's easy to figure out its market value (zilch) and average days on market (eternity). There are plenty of short sales right here in the neighborhood, and they are not moving.

Finally, I realize my credit score will take a hit, but remember that I don't need to rent since I own House #2. I have stable long-term employment, decent car, and no debt so speak of. So what if my car insurance goes up a bit. Incidentally, the Federal tax-exempt status on mortgage debt forgiveness is only temporary, so if you are considering walking away from your equity-less home, better call your CPA and lawyer to find out the rules and start making plans..."

Thanks, Blue. Your thoughts? Comments? Be respectful, and please don't expect Condoblue to explain every intricate financial detail of these transactions. There's a lot of information here.
Read below for Condoblue's first post.
Continue reading »


Advertisement

About the Bloggers

Recent Posts


Categories


Archives