No 'mothballing' on $3-billion Grand project

News item: "Preliminary construction" -- not to be confused with the official groundbreaking -- has begun on the $3 billion, mixed-use project in downtown L.A. known as "The Grand."

By my math, it is actually 3 million grands, but never mind.

Designed by architect Frank Gehry, Phase I includes a 48-story Mandarin Oriental Hotel & Residences, a 250,000-square-foot retail pavilion, a 19-story residential tower, and a 16-acre civic park.

It's true, I mainly just wanted to run the photo.

Your thoughts? How much new residential construction is too much downtown?
Photo Credit: MWW Group

Comments

[Michael Snyder]

What, no bowling alley? Come on; this is prima-fascia evidence of furious masturbation at the highest levels of management. Los Angeles is truly a suburb in search of a city and I really don’t think anything shy of black hole will draw folks to downtown for longer than a sporting event. But with a three billion dollar price tag this may come close.

[mark]

You usually need a giant dud to symbolize a mania crash.
What a debacle to be...right when the market has begun to implode.
Gehry will have nightmares on this one.He should have just checked his ego and put this one on hold for 5 years.I hear downtown condo living is great if you dont mind urine,transients.

[ChrisL]

Downtown living is getting better, Mark. I was a skeptic 3-4 years ago, but I think things are improving there. The biggest problem is that the nice/livable area is closely bordered by highly unlivable/urine/transient areas.

[Gnome Chomsky]

Don't worry, once the light rail extends to Santa Monica, all the urine and transients will head west to the pier. Viva Grandpa Gherry!

[UPTHECREEK]

YA RIGHT.
Give it up boys No one will pay the price for these "toilets in the sky"

[John T Watts]

It's interesting to think how many trucks it will take to keep that building provisioned on a daily basis and the freeways and streets aren't really getting any bigger. So that will increase commute times a bit and more people may make decisions about how much time they are willing to spend commuting. That may cause more people to want to telecommute, or live closer to where they work, or maybe leave the area altogether.

[William Jones]

That new Mandarin Oriental Hotel will be amazing...a Presidential Suite within walking distance of skid row...with a drop dead view of it! Are they taking reservations yet?

Of course Los Angeles has such an excellent underutilized transportation network that massive new development makes perfect sense.

[Chris Winn]

In the words of Randy Newman "I LOVE L.A."

[Hula Girl]

NO RECESSION2008- says UCLA Economist Director Edward Leamer.
http://www.latimes.com/business/
la-fi-econ6dec06,0,7891779.story?
coll=la-home-center

This guy is a better spin meister than Paris Hilton's publicist.
Among the highlight and "bright spots:

* The loss of 3 million manufacturing jobs early this decade means there is little room to cut more positions.(Nobody left to cut? Will the last employee standing please turn out the lights) Why, that is good news!

* Most of the damage to the economy from the housing slump will be over by the end of next year. (He can say this with a straight face?!)

California's economic outlook mirrors the nation's, forecasters said. "It gets pretty ugly, but still no recession," the report says. The state will be hit hard by the weak real estate market, falling government revenue and the Hollywood writers' strike. (Wow - there's hope for us all - see, Ma, no recession)

Job losses in California will be numerous in the construction and financial sectors, but total unemployment will peak by the end of next year at a 6.1% rate, the study reported. Meanwhile, real personal income will rise 1% to 2%. (Happy Days are here again).

Will somebody please, find a REAL economist.

http://www.latimes.com/business/l
a-fi-econ6dec06,0,7891779.story?
coll=la-home-center

[Tombstone Realty]

If I remember correctly, the city ponied up a goodly portion of projected tax revenues to fund part of this ...thing....

Tax revenues which I can't see materializing in the current economic state.

In addition, Gehry is being sued by MIT for his building's massive structural problems. If he can't design a simple dorm, how can he design an entire city block. All that metal in downtown is just going to blind everyone in the surrounding buildings too.

[yourkillingmelarry]

Downtown has a huge question mark over its head right now. As we can all see we are going into a secular downtrend in housing, a particularly nasty one at that. There is a bunch of inventory out there right now with more to come once the foreclosure story plays out regardless of any bailout. Gentrification of urban areas happens when a city is experiencing a secular uptrend,, thats why you see all the developments in downtown without much infrastructure to support those proposed communities. This is a product of the housing boom/bubble. Now that we have entered a downtrend with rising inventories and falling prices in established neighborhoods gentrification is greatly slowed. So if you are buying a loft next to skid row anticipating the neighborhood will turn, you are basically just buying a loft next to skid row, that is your neighborhood.

[Chris in Sacramento]

Sorry, John, but this building, whatever its merits, will attain transportation efficiency far beyond that of typical developments. One, many residents will be able to walk or take transit to work, thus reducing vehicle miles traveled associated with the building. Two, with this level of density carsharing or even reduced parking requirements are possible, further reducing VMT. Three, many of the trucks required to serve the buidling are coming from warehouses and such located near this spot, and because those trucks are able to serve so many dwellings at one location, their travel and parking (and idliing and related emissions) are all reduced. From a transportation and energy (fewer WATTS, John) perspective, this project should be a big winner.

Now, whether or not there's an actual market for this sort of real estate right now is anyone's guess.

"It's interesting to think how many trucks it will take to keep that building provisioned on a daily basis"

[Brady Westwater]

In the past 30 days, I have been swamped with high end retailers, restaurant owners, vintage book and clothing stores, major Westside art galleries - all of whom want to relocate Downtown. Plus New Yorkers are calling me for any building that can be converted into a boutique hotel and a at least a half--dozen groups are actively looking to buy a theater on Broadway.

RIght now I am getting far more calls than I did at any time during the 'boom' as everyone is finally realizing Downtown will soon be the only place in LA where you will never have to get in a car for days at a time.

[Nate]

Where are they going to move all the transients?

I went to the open house for Park 5th (I still don't understand where the term Park came from -- I guess the patch of grass at Pershing Square can be considered a "park". Or maybe its because they are building the residences on a old "park"ing lot) and they quoted me 750K for a one bedroom and 1.5 million for a two bedroom -- starting. Don't forget the $.80 - $1 per square foot on HOA fees and the use of only one valet parking spot regardless of how many bedrooms you own.... look on the brightside, you can use the hotel's maid service -- for a 'reasonable' fee.

Anyhow, I asked about pershing square and they hyped it up, but really, where are they pushing all the homeless too. They practically own most of downtown.

[Westsider]

UPTHECREEK - Been to Palisades Park lately? The urine and transients are already well established.

[Rob]

The City of Los Angeles. So close to a revival, only to be brought back by the bubble. Now, if they can just get rid of that urine smell..

I wonder if those million dollar lofts on the southside are still vacant....

[Jeremy R]

they have been planning this thing for 10 years, so I am sure they dont want to wait another 5. That would be 15 years in the making. It is Eli Broad's baby, so I expect it to move forward.

Besides its commercial money anyway. What do we care if it fails or not. I am pulling for it to get done. A nice new hotel would be great for the music center. The music center is the most underrated cultural center in America. The opera, phil harm, master chorale, and center theatre group, Moca, Colburn are all gems that are FAR underutilized. Grand Ave would put them on the map finally.

We need more grand civic park space. This is the best chance we have. How can anyone be against that?

Jobs, hotels, residences, retail, and a large park sitting amongst our civic center (with park), the moca, the cathedral, colburn, and the music center would be great for this city.

I feel bad for related co, but I feel great as an Angeleno.

[Gonzo]

--Job losses in California will be numerous in the construction and financial sectors--

But on the bright side, this project will create many jobs in construction!

[Gonzo]

Jeremy R- I couldn't agree with you more!

How exciting for our city to be building architectural legacies (like the Disney Hall) that will be an attraction for years to come. I am in awe every time I attend a performance there. Truly breathtaking! I expect the new development to be just as inspirational.

[TrojanDLA]

Oh you skeptics. I think the Grand Project is PERFECT for downtown LA. DLA was the pit of despair, a venue of vacant office space and dilapidated parking lots. NOW, with Nokia Live kicking off its resurgence, there is development and excitement EVERYWHERE in downtown.

Chicago 15 years ago was very similar to LA, look at its transformation today. Has anybody taken a look at how San Diego downtown has improved over the last 10 years because of similar developments? I believe this is the right direction to not only clean up LA, but make it a residential bright spot in the county.

[yourkillingmelarry]

I think long term all the attention downtown LA is getting will be a positive. I love a city with an actual downtown, I lived in Seattle through most of the 90's, hated the weather absolutely loved the city. Same holds true for Portland. I think there is strong potential for downtown LA to acquire a gritty chic. Affordability will be a key. What I have noticed in reclaiming urban centers is that it is usually the starving artist moving in first due to low rents in the area. These creative communities take limited resources and bring out the positive elements of these neighborhoods and make them cool. That then attracts the more progressive yuppies and eventually you have sidewalks lined with strollers, don't know if that will happen for a while in downtown LA. Point being you have to have affordability for these areas to incubate and get off the ground. So maybe the housing bust is the best thing that could happen to downtown LA long term. This area will now be in competition with LA's established neighborhoods which are in the process of a home price correction. It will be interesting to see this unfold.

[upthecreek]

"Chicago 15 years ago was very similar to LA, look at its transformation today. Has anybody taken a look at how San Diego downtown has improved over the last 10 years because of similar developments? I believe this is the right direction to not only clean up LA, but make it a residential bright spot in the county"

As a matter of fact you are right..San Diego has changed in the last few years... Have you seen all the foreclosures on the overbuilt condos in the sky..Talk about disgusting ..the speculators were running wild.. the only problem... Few serious owner occupants in these San Diego Condos..So I guess this is the Brightspot of San Diego..NOT.

[CD]

It will take another 10 years to get cleaned up, I just went ,jury duty, not by choice. Those condos/lofts they put together with spit and glue are the worst. Now they have the women shelter in little Tokio ,that should help ( not!!!) and I hear the transients take turn washing in the swimming pools in the swanky converted buildings.Walking by the biscuit factory the urine stench was intense, they asked for K900 for a mini me loft. Does that come with a bottle of Chanel #5? As anyone told those guys we were in a recession and that prices are on the way down, not up. What is their inventory down there, anyone knows?
Brady, how is Lawrence Yun these days? Still spinning like a dreddel?

[CD]

I just got an email from 2121 lofts downtown by the 7 th street bridge.They are offering a $100,ooo dicount on selected lofts.I guess the stampeed they were expecting a year ago did not occur. Was it the homeless man camping by the open parking lot,in a box, using the back alley as his bathroom?I feel for the shmoks who paid full price and were promised a hip new life downtown,as shown in the design magazines.

[peter m]

I HAVE BEEN ALL OVER DWTN LOS ANGELES AND THE PERIFERAL AREAS . NOTHING I SEE WITH ALL THE NEW BUILDINGS AND DEVELOPMENTS INDICATES THAT DWTN LA WILL TRANSFORM ANYTIME SOON INTO A THRIVING LIVELY HAPPENING SCENE FILLED WITH UPSCALE YUPPIES AND PROFESSIONALS AND WITH A THRIVI NG, BURGEONING ARTS DISTRICT.

Problems with dwtn include the hard concrete paved aspect and fortress-like buildings around the bunker hill -grand ave area . The many auto ramps off the 110 fwy which shoot into thsi district add to its unwalkablilty.

5-6-7th streets are more walkable till U get below 8th st and then iit becomes once more a barren concrete paved warren. All those new bulidings going up along flower and grand from 8th street almost to the 10 fwy(near staples center) stilll cannot make this area inviting and attactive for walks especially in evening when virtually the entire dwtn get deserted and the homeless come out.

If they are going to put up a park with that grand ave project that remains to be seen, for dwtn LA absolutly lacks any sizable pleasant shaded parks and evenshaded lanes and plazas: it is all concrete paved with plenty of urine stains.

There is a plan for all the buildings going up along grand-flower nearstaples and that is to site them adjacent to the rail lines. The focus seems to be to get folks to take the metro into dwtn as much as possible. First, they really need to clean up dwtn and solve the homeless problem to make it more attractive for residents.

[sheila]

THIS HAD BETTER BE A "NET ZERO" PROJECT!!!!

Villaraigosa needs to put his (developer donor's) money where his mouth is and GREEN LA. and not by dynamiting the wilderness near Joshua Tree. by cleaning up his own MESS of a city.

NET ZERO, TONIO. the world is looking...

www.stopgreenpath.com

[John T Watts]

Chris in Sacramento-that all sounds really good. Just a quick detail question; From where and how do those local ware houses receive their supplies? Wouldn't they be coming in mostly by truck from outside the area? As the city grows taller, won't the trucks eventually crowd out the commuters. Of course maybe they could all come in at night.

What's with all this urine smell? Maybe it's time for business owners to chip in for some porta potties or easily accessible permanent restrooms at street level. Everyone has to go somewhere.

[Rob]

Peter M wrote:

"especially in evening when virtually the entire dwtn get deserted and the homeless come out."

LOL, this is where they got the idea for Dawn of the Dead. Roll up the carpet and bolt the doors, hangout on the rooftops. But, all jokes aside, I would like to see Dwtn transformed and keep the pretentious in the west side.

[Rob]

Sheila,
I see what you mean. When I ride my dirtbike through the desert dodging tortoises I cant stand the sight of those hideous towers. Why don’t they put the lines underground?