Listing prices slip again

Median listing prices in greater L.A. dipped over the past week by nearly $4,000, to $495,000, according to Housing Tracker, which tracks MLS listings and crunches the numbers once a week.   Median prices are now down $50,000 since this blog began publishing in April.

Inventory slipped again -- by a thousand listings, but not as much as inventory usually drops this time of year, resulting in a widening year-over-year increase in inventory -- up 28.2% over year-ago levels.

Date          Median Price           I                 Inventory
4/06           $579,666                                 27,251
4/07           $545,000                                 35,489
5/07           $545,000                                 38,297
6/07           $540,000                                 40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07           $535,000                                 42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07           $529,000                                 44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07           $520,000                                 46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07         $510,000                                 46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07         $499,900                                 46,503 (Up 19.0% y/y)
12/10/07    $498,900                                 44,175 (Up 27.5% y/y)
12/17/07   $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)    43,174 (Up 28.2% y/y)

Thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com

Comments

[Cal]

It amazing how many houses are on the market, its a week before Xmas and nobody (historically speaking) is pulling their home off. Everyone is wishing for the same Xmas miracle.

[mike]

WE WILL NEED TO SUFFER THROUGH A MOMENTARY SETBACK BUT THE LOS ANGELES MARKET WILL REBOUND SOON!!!

[amir]

The LA correction has only started this summer, around July. Prices have only recently started to collapse.

If this pace continues, we should expect declines of over 20% next year.

Such declines have a momentum of their own, so 2009 might show similar patterns.

By 2010, the market will reach fair value territory (after 50% declines), but will continue to overshoot down, out of sheer inertia. Fear will be very high, but prices will be affordable, a reverse picture of 2006, when jubilation was high and prices unaffordable.

I'm not an expert, but I can play one on TV.

[JK]

It amazing how many houses are on the market, its a week before Xmas and nobody (historically speaking) is pulling their home off. Everyone is wishing for the same Xmas miracle.

Posted by: Cal | December 17, 2007 at 05:00 PM

So are some buyers Cal. There are potential buyers out there (myself included) who would love to buy themselves a house for Xmas but can't do it at these inflated prices. Eventually the two sides will have to meet somewhere in the middle or we are all in trouble!

[originalthinker]

Actually, amir, you are an expert. 2010 fair value with an overcorrection
or 2012-14 with a soft landing. 40-50% off peak prices, not including
4-7 years of lost value to inflation. Quite the piggy bank for a retiree
planning to reverse on the equity.

[vultur]

What's amazing is that the NAR will try and spin this positively in Q3 and Q4 2008 when prices take another leg down because they will only be comparing 2007 prices then, not 2006!

You guys probably recall that little revisionist trick perpetrated by the hedge/investment funds post 9/11 as they began flaunting their 02/03/04 double digit gains completely ignoring the incredible erosion of equity in the wake of the dot com bust.

Look for spin from the NAR but let's us all recall vividly the peak selling prices of this cycle. Peter, please refresh my recollection- was that number $595,000? I do not recall specifically.

[lefty]

no one can call the exact bottom for metro L.A., but in general it is already here!! the supply is going down, and now (and the first half of 2008) is the perfect time to buy. while the other states get snowed under, don't miss your best chance to be in sunny Los Angeles!!

[Laker]

>Posted by: lefty
>no one can call the exact bottom for metro L.A., but in general it is already >here!! the supply is going down, and now (and the first half of 2008) is the >perfect time to buy. while the other states get snowed under, don't miss your >best chance to be in sunny Los Angeles!!

Lefty agent, I might agree with you with one comment. If Joe buyer wants a house now and will offer 40% less than the asking price and get it, this would be a great buy!

However if the offer will not be accepted, Joe Buyer will leave his phone number to Jack subprime homeowner so that he would receive a phone call from Jack in 2008-2009 and beg him to buy the house for the offer price...Unfortunately for Jack, Joe already bought a better house for even less than that offer price....

[Buyers!, offer 40% less than asking price, you will eventually get it for that number]

[Rob]

Lefty, Mike, Tbone and alike are Trolls... Please dont feed the Trolls.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

[mommy]

"If Joe buyer wants a house now and will offer 40% less than the asking price and get it, this would be a great buy!"

that's what we're trying to do (though not quite 40% reduced)... 2 months ago we put an offer on a corporate re-lo home that had been on the market for months, already reduced once to 539k. we offered 465k and they basically told us to take a hike!
THEN they called us back several weeks later and said they were reconsidering our offer, could we do 499k? we said no...
now the home is listed at 499k, it's been about 4 weeks now. i wonder if they'll get the price they want... we'll check back in after the new year. though, should we even pay $465 at that point??

[eprobert]

I was watching Suze Orman the other night (I know, I know!) but anyway, her advice to potential buyers was "we're already at 2004 prices in most of the country, but they will go down more. If you want to buy, offer 2002 prices."

I think that's great advice - I live in 90039. Prices in 2006/2007 were 650,000 or so, now theyr'e down to $550,000. 2002 prices were $300,000.

Sounds good to me!

[Jeremy R]

"no one can call the exact bottom for metro L.A., but in general it is already here!! the supply is going down"

The supply is going down because home owners have unlisted their homes.
In my neighorhood, I can see at least 2000 units that are in construction but purposely stalled. One development has been "almost" complete for well over a year and it is on the beach (or 50 feet from it).

I have seen many for sale signs magically dissappear yet their is no data to indicate that it was sold.

I am sure the inventory is actually rising, but 5,000 people are unlisting their homes and construction is being halted mid-stream.

The bottom is 2010. And the bottom will last about 3 years.

housing doesn't just bottom for a month, it stays down for years.

I want the LA market to be as healthy as you do, but I also think affordability is LA's only chance at remaining competitive over the LONG run.

[Jeremy R]

"that's what we're trying to do (though not quite 40% reduced)... 2 months ago we put an offer on a corporate re-lo home that had been on the market for months, already reduced once to 539k. we offered 465k and they basically told us to take a hike!
THEN they called us back several weeks later and said they were reconsidering our offer, could we do 499k? we said no...
now the home is listed at 499k, it's been about 4 weeks now. i wonder if they'll get the price they want... we'll check back in after the new year. though, should we even pay $465 at that point??"

Although I want prices to come down, people have to realize that in many markets, you cant sell for the next 6 months. If I were a homeonwer I would wait until next summer to list my home, and base my price off of other listings in my area. No point in trying to sell now.

[Laker]

>should we even pay $465 at that point??
>Posted by: mommy

Well, I'm not sure about your specific house, but if you offered this 2 months ago, i would reduce my offer by 10% or worst case offer same money if you feel that the $465 is 2002 price.
I would not suggest offering more than 2002 price since the market is heading down to 2000-2001 price and will STAY there for some time.

[Lina]

I were a homeonwer I would wait until next summer to list my home, and base my price off of other listings in my area. No point in trying to sell now.
Posted by: Jeremy R

Jeremy, Some homeowner must sell, so they keep the house on the market. 6 months wait for them means guaranteed foreclosure...
This is still nothing compared to the real problem. In summer 08, the prices will be at least 10% lower than today, there are almost no sales today...so you can't really compare, but as those people that have their houses listed and not sold by summer will see the influx of new sellers put their houses on the marker since summer has just arrived will see big surprise....NO BUYERS, and if they do find a buyer, poor one could not even get a loan approved...
Smart sellers reduce the price as needed and sell FAST! These sellers will get the most $$$