Listing prices slip by $4,900

Another sizeable* drop in median listing prices: median listing prices in greater L.A. dropped $4,900 in the past week, to $510,000, according to Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listings.

Median listing prices have dropped $35,000 in the six months since we launched this blog, from $545,000 to $510,000, and have dropped nearly $70,000 -- or 12%, since April 2006. Inventory has shot up dramatically over the same period, from 35,489 to 46,603.

*We call the drop in listing prices "sizeable" because it is a one-week decline of nearly 1%, and it comes from  a large statistical sample. If asking prices were to fall this fast for any period of time, it would mark a huge decline -- nearly 50% over the course of a year.

Date         Median Price             Inventory

4/06        $579,666                  27,251

4/07         $545,000                 35,489
5/07         $545,000                 38,297
6/07         $540,000                 40,766  (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07         $535,000                 42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07         $529,000                 44,483  (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07         $520,000                 46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/8/07    $514,900                 46,219 (up 15.1% y/y)
10/15/07  $510,000               46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)

Thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to lalandblog@yahoo.com
Photo Credit: Reuters

Comments

[Arche Logos]

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[srla]

Wow, that's a 6.5% drop in listing prices in just 5 months. That's huge. That projects to a 15.6% annual decline. And the really shocking part is that the price decline so far seems concentrated in the lower half of the market.

Of course, this month we have that spike in ARMS resets, so it will be interesting to watch how this affects housing price data. Could be that we're in for even more dramatic declines in the very near future.

[BetterVillage]

50% over a year sounds about right. Now... if this lasts two years? More?
Hold on to your diapers, babies, we're going in.

[Enlightenment]

According to Irvine Housing Blog...
www.irvinehousingblog.com
Since it takes at least 6 months to become an REO after the homeowner stops making payments, and since most people will exhaust all other forms of credit before they succumb to foreclosure, we can assume there will be a 1 year lag from the peak of the ARM reset chart to the peak of the REO problem. That puts us into March of 2009 before there is any hope of the number of REOs declining. Since it will also take some time to sell this inventory (we currently have a 20 month supply,) that puts the earliest possible bottom of the market in the Summer of 2010. Realistically, the selloff will continue into the 2011 buying season with the spring of 2011 being the earliest possible bottom.

[Steve Reynolds]

Well, that's a 6.4 percent decrease from the high. I don't think this is the popping of the real estate bubble, it's more like the rolling downhill of the real estate boulder. Starts out slow and gains momentum at an exponential rate of speed, then crashes full force into whatever lies at the bottom of the hill.

[Pete Viles]

Steve Reynolds wrote, "Well, that's a 6.4 percent decrease from the high. I don't think this is the popping of the real estate bubble."

Steve -- my bad, my original chart in the post begins in April 2007, and the decline since then is 6.4%, as you point out. But if you go back another year, prices were even higher -- they've actually declined 12% since April 2006. I updated the post to indicate that.

Was April 2006 the peak of prices? I don't think so. If memory serves, Housing Tracker doesn't have this statistical series -- greater LA, not including the Antelope Valley -- from prior to April 2006.

[Mark G]

Hey Pete,
Is there any chance you can give us your address in Santa Monica so I can look up your mortgage, date of purchase, Zillow % increase curve, etc., on your home? I am now addicted to this like crack.
Thanks

[Cal]

Just a note: In the last week I've had some new to market REO homes make my antenna twitch as far as pricing, it is too soon to tell if this is a fundamental shift or just variance. But if it does represent a shift then sales volumes in 3 or 4 months might show a "surprising" increase. We shall see.

[Pete Viles]

Mark G wrote, "Hey Pete, Is there any chance you can give us your address in Santa Monica so I can look up your mortgage..."

I hate to disappoint you, but I rent.

[xtine]

Mark G - Peter rents.

[Jackie Johnson]

Ah, the irony.... an "LA Land" blog written by a renter in Santa Monica who has lived in LA for all of 3 years, and refers to himself in the royal "we".

Great work, LA Times....

[longdriver]

So, a 12% decline in asking price since April 06, add that to the 10% below asking that homes are actually selling for and you get a much bigger number. Back in 06 homes did not sell under asking price. Nowdays nearly all homes sell under asking. More and More are significantly under asking.

[Lander]

Housing Tracker has another data set which shows listing prices in the LA area are down 15.5% since a high in August 2005. The peak may have been earlier than that.

http://tinyurl.com/39s62y

See it graphed here:
http://tinyurl.com/37sqje

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Hmmmm, the decilne in median asking price used to be about $5K per month from May to August of this year.

Now, it has accelerated to about $5k per 2 wks.

We will likely see the median asking price dip below $500K the next time, a major psychological barrier.

I predict it will then go to $400K in no time at all.

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Jackie, must 'LA Crimes' be written by a verteran career criminal only? Does LA Land have to be written by a landowner only?

Or can we say syllogism and rational reasoning can be practiced by anyone once they are taught, which we all learned as a newly born infant ('Everytime I cry, mommy comes with her milk, I cry now, and soon I will have milk') and no further experience is necessary? I don't need another 3 years. We don't need another 3 years. Do you need another 3 years?

[problemWithcaring]

also, Jackie Johnson:

Do you know the definition of "irony"?

If so, do you mean you actually find it incongruous that someone who rents (when/if it makes financial and cultural sense to do so) can actually make rational deductions about real estate phenomena??

If so, its going to take a lot longer than three years for you to get the help YOU need....

ASIDE: I acknowledge that this is pretty insulting with limited intrinsic informational value...still I wish to see it posted.