LA listing prices slip again

Median listing prices in greater LA slipped again this week, down by $999 to $519,000, according to Housing Tracker's weekly calculation of MLS listings. Inventory moved slighly higher, to 46,252 homes for sale.

Median listing prices have now slipped $26,000 since this blog launched in mid-April; listing prices are 8.1% below year-ago levels, and have declined 5.5% in the past six months.

Date         Median Price             Inventory
4/16         $545,000                 35,489
5/14         $545,000                 38,297
6/11         $540,000                 40,766  (up 20.4% y/y)
7/16         $535,000                 42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/13         $529,000                 44,483  (Up 13.6% y/y)
9/10         $520,000                 46,414 (Up 16.9% y/y)
9/24         $519,000               46,252 (Up 14.6% y/y)

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Photo Credit: Reuters

Comments

[John T Watts]

It's just a matter of time until prices and inventories stabilize and start back the other way. The lending situation will improve. According to the census bureau website there are almost 303 million people in this country. That's up from 300 million less that a year ago. At that rate, there will be over 333 million people in 10 years. That's like adding almost an entire California to the country. As long as the economy does well, people will buy homes. Do not despair!

[vultur]

Peter, I've asked you previously- why not show average and median sales price data y/y? Do you not have access to it? I believe that sales prices are far more indicative of the market that listing prices.

Does anyone have access to this data?

[Pete Viles]

Vultur wrote: "Peter, I've asked you previously- why not show average and median sales price data y/y?"

Vultur -- You asked before, I'm sorry I didn't answer. I have the median y/y -- you can get it too from DataQuick's website -- and will post that shortly. The listing numbers come out weekly -- twice a week, actually, one each on different blogs; the median sales price numbers come out monthly from DQ. I'm not aware of a good source on average price, and I am aware of numerous criticisms of "average" as a metric, so I'll skip that. I'm going to throw in an extra stat: total number of homes sold in LA in the past year, by month, which I read over the weekend is a good number to watch.

[Tim K.]

John Watts - I'm not despairing in the least! I'm enjoying a nice rental apartment while I wait for property values to come into line, and then yes, I will buy a place and enjoy the appreciation that comes after that.

I predict it will take at least 5-7 years from now.

So no worries, by then I will saved an even bigger down payment and my costs will be less! Plus, I will have had a chance to scope out which neighborhoods are *not* overrun by mosquitos breeding in abandoned swimming pools, or have lost property due to abandoned buildings. I can then choose the nicer neighborhoods and make my choice!

I have to say, in the last 5 years this has been one of the most stress free moments in my life with regards to housing. There is no better feeling than knowing you have no time pressure to act, and being able to make a nice, non-emotional decision when it comes time to commit to a large expenditure. These moments don't come often in life, and I am enjoying this one a lot!

[David]

"It's just a matter of time until prices and inventories stabilize and start back the other way." - All financial cycles are a matter of time. The question is; how much time?

"The lending situation will improve." Eventually, but not in the near future. This is starting in subprime and moving into Alt-A and A paper. We have a trillion dollars or so of ARM resets over the next year. Will lenders loosen standards as more people default due to payment shock?

"According to the census bureau website there are almost 303 million people in this country. That's up from 300 million less that a year ago. At that rate, there will be over 333 million people in 10 years. That's like adding almost an entire California to the country." - So owners who can't make their mortgage payments will be alright because the population is projected to increase 10% over the next 10 years? Will this also help potential buyers who don't have the 10-20% down to buy a house that is 10X (or more) their annual income?

"As long as the economy does well, people will buy homes." - You may want to reflect on what was driving the economy over the past 5 years - housing, and the housing HELOC ATM. Both are suddenly tapped out. What will be driving the economy over the next 5 years? Can you say "consumer-lead recession"? It's very possible this will be the hot headline sometime around 2009.

"Do not despair!" - I agree completely, don't despair. Do your own research and hope for the best, but plan on the worst (just in case).

Also, try not to see the tip of the iceberg as the iceberg. Good luck all!

[John T Watts]

Right on Tim K. Hang in there.

[Mike]

The is all about the fundamentals. We bought our house in Calabasas, CA about eight years ago. Since then its price increased by nearly 300%. At the same time our income increased by about 30%, mostly due to the cost-of-living salary raises. Which means that at this prices we would not be able to touch a house like ours with a proverbial "six foot pole". There is a fundamental relationship between the family income and the amount of mortgage family can handle, and this will never going to go away. The home prices in a long term must follow the income curve trend, and when the prices will fall to this level - this will be the time for buyers who can wait a bit to make their move.

[George Burnham]

Pete - maybe you have answered this before, but what does "greater LA" encompass? City of LA, County of LA, or LA+Inland Empire etc. Thanks.