Kate runs the numbers herself

One of the great things about the Internet is that it makes information available to everyone -- if you care enough, you can become an expert. So Kate in the Valley isn't just a house-hunter who blogs; she's an expert on the areas where she wants to live. The chart above is Kate's creation -- it shows home sales in all the neighborhoods she's interested in, most of them peaking in August 2005. Kate's latest:

It seems like everybody is talking about August sales volumes this week, yet I couldn't find anything about the neighborhoods I search. It's frustrating that Los Angeles is treated as a single homogeneous real-estate entity, which it clearly is not. So I did what any frustrated house hunter would do: ran the numbers myself.  I ran searches by zip code at MelissaData.com, where they provide a list by month of the number of homes sold and the average price. Their information comes from the local county recorder's office.  I ran seven ZIP Codes  representing the southern San Fernando Valley: 91604 (Studio City), 91423 (Sherman Oaks East); 91403 (Sherman Oaks West); 91436 (Encino West); 91306 (Encino East); 91356 (Tarzana); and 91364 (Woodland Hills). 

What did I find?  That about half of these ZIP Codes had peak August sales volumes in 2005 and the remaining ZIP Codes peaked in 2004 (not 2003 like the rest of Southern California). Which makes me think that if I want a house in these neighborhoods (and I do) it will take a little longer here than it might elsewhere in SoCal.

The biggest sales volume decline was in Tarzana, selling a whopping 98 homes in August 2005 and a mere 24 in August 2007 (down 75.5%).  Encino West was not far behind, selling 92 homes in August 2005 and 30 in August 2007 ( down 67.39%).  Studio City fared the best of the lot, selling 66 homes in Aug 2005 and 41 in August 2007 (down 38.88%).

I also looked at Melissa Data's reported changes in August sale prices over the last six years.  Almost all ZIP Codes peaked in August 2006.  Surprisingly, the southwestern San Fernando Valley is showing a year-over-year sale price increase; Woodland Hills, Tarzana, and West Encino are all up from last August. The biggest year-over-year sale price decline was in Sherman Oaks West with a 13.22% price cut since August 2006, followed by Studio City with a 12.60% decrease for the same period.  It will certainly be interesting to see what volumes are like during the holidays this year.

Graphic by Kate
Comments? Thoughts? Insights?

Comments

[Mark G]

Great, now buy a house and stop killing us with your postings.

[Willie]

Ditto, Mark. Her post are getting to be a pain. I don't think that Kate wants to buy anything, but basking in all the attention she is gathering by posting her exploits while trying to allegedly search for a home.

[yourkillingmelarry]

This is good info Kate. Thanks for sharing with this site. A question I have is about this statement

"the Southwestern San Fernando Valley is showing a year-over-year sale price increase; Woodland Hills, Tarzana, and West Encino are all up from last August."

Is that median price? I find it hard to believe that actual home prices are rising in this environment. You may want to read Rich Toscano's latest update on August sales in San Diego. He compares the Case Shiller index, the median price per sq. ft. and the widely used median price.

http://piggington.com/august_housing_data

As you can see the median price measurement is virtually useless in this type of market. The composite of homes sales change during a deep correction.

[Jane]

I don't understand the making an effort to live in the Valley, yes I know Encino is nice (if you squint,) but isn't Santa Monica nicer. I think the San Gabriel Valley is what the SFV used to be anyway.

I think if you long for the SFV of old you should really be looking at SGV, better schools, prettier houses, less chain crap places, not hot, no 405, parts of it are relatively close to the Gold Line.

North Alhambra, North San Gabriel, San Marino, Arcadia, Pasaadena south of Colorado....just lovely little neighborhoods if you like that charming suburban, pta mom, knitting club thing.

President Clinton is going to be at Vromans...they had Gore Vidal, I mean just some very awesome events and that bookstore is relatively close to all of the SGV.

If I came back as a Stepford Wife I'd get married and moved to San Marino and become the PTA president and have dim sum Sundays in Monterey Park.

Jane

[Carmel McFayden]

I would also agree with the fact that using Median Prices is meaningless. i live in Woodland Hills and let you tell you NOTHING is selling. Sellers are still listing their POS properties at ludicrous prices and are sitting for months and months. The listing expires and they relist with some other realtor and the same house sits again. I have noticed some flippers who bought houses earlier this year add some paint and granite (of course!) and then try and flip this same house for $100Kplus profit. Of course it's not going to happen!

The big thing is that the rental market is getting flooded however the asking rents are ludicrous. The houses sit and then go back onto the market with a $10K reduction (on a $800plus house). The party has ended and everyone sees the writing on the wall... everyone except those with their backs to the wall.

[perks]

Yes, Kate. Please stop posting. I hate having more information on how weak the market is getting in the parts of the L.A. where I will likely be purchasing my home. I hate hearing the perspectives of other potential home buyers who also have particular requirements. How dare you keep providing this information, Kate. You disgust me.

[Tim K.]

"Mark G" and "Willie" - if you don't like Kate's postings, why on earth are you reading this blog? This blog is all about information as it relates to the housing slowdown, and Kate's posts are extremely informative and contain information and insights that are not found elsewhere.

If you truly believed what you said, then it is clear that you have not been paying attention to her postings at all - she won't buy a home because they are too expensive, and she believes the prices will fall. She will buy a home, just not at these prices.

My intuition is that both of you have a vested interest in housing prices staying high, and her analysis threatens you because she is exposing this fallacy to a lot more people. You might either by recent homeowners, or not-so-recent homeowners who just feel this sort of talk will further encourage your homes to lose value. And you may be right about that, but that doesn't mean her insights are any less valuable to this blog.

[Tim K.]

Peter, or anyone else for that matter -

Do you know whether anyone else is tracking housing *sales* prices per square foot in the Los Angeles area, maybe by zipcode? I'd presume Dataquick has the information, but for some reason, they choose not to show it.

[Jeremy (jemarqu)]

Thanks for the website. I work as a ETL/Business Intelligence specialist. I am going to have a lot of fun analyzing this data.

[Toby]

No offense but I don't think Kate in the Valley could buy a house right now even if she did find the house of her dreams. No bank will give her a loan, and I don't mean this as a slam against her.

And it seems kind of pointless to read her blog if she's not going to buy a house.

[CN]

Kate-
I say keep up the good work. I've been following your column for a couple of months, and I've been very surprised at how it has aroused such an angry reaction...
What's wrong with a bit of research and caution? I work hard for my salary and I'm certainly not going to waste my money and jump into buying a house b/c the naysayers on this site say I lack commitment. It takes me months just to research buying a camera or computer, so waitng a year or two for the right house is not going to be the end of the world.
I'm also looking for a house in the same area. I have the money, but I refuse to pay a million dollars for 3 dumpy rooms in Studio City within spitting distance of the 101 freeway.
Unless you are certain that you will be staying in your house for the next 7-10 years, I don't see how anybody can fault somebody for the "wait and see" approach right now....

[Rob]

I vote for Kate to keep posting. I love living vicariously through her stories. I hope she keeps gumshoeing the market up to or near bottom. I want to see what she ends up with, and what for.

[Kate]

To those of you who asked about the Melissa Data numbers, their site states that they are "average prices." Unfortunately, I have not yet turned up any information as to whether they disregard intra-family transfers and similar items. As you likely know, the statistics from vary quite a bit from one site to the next.

Jane:

Due to my job location, I am pretty committed to Sherman Oaks and Studio City.

Carmel:

Woodland Hills has been very slow moving but apparently at least some higher end homes are still moving.

Tim K:

I'm not aware of anybody particularly tracking historical price per square foot, but you can find some current average square foot information on Zillow.

[Ilovela]

Median prices don't really mean much to a person buying a home in the price range she's looking for. Also, if you want a house right now, woodland hills is a good option....Theres been over 100 sales closed & 50 pending since July. Over 80 percent under a million. Lots of people are buying there because you can actually afford to buy a house south of the blvd and have a decent elementary and middle schools. Of course these are people that "need" to live south of the boulevard.

[Ed M]

For those who don't know, DataQuick's website www.dqnews.com has nice tables of the previous month's sales. The most useful chart is the L.A. Times chart (oddly, I haven't been able to find this data in such a useful form on the L.A. Times website itself). It has, by zipcode, sale # and median price for both homes and condos, AND price/sq ft for homes. It also compares with the same month a year ago. They don't have August #'s up yet; they're usually posted the 3rd or 4th week of the following month. This is for SD as well as LA.

They only have the latest month's data for free...however, I've been, ahem, "memorizing" the data since July 2006 and have been following my favorite zip codes. They clearly state I can't republish the data, but from what I see, the overall trends are the following: Sale #'s declining (with some noise), median prices, as well as price/sq ft, flat, with a LOT of noise. Sorry, not that earth-shattering.

It'll be fun to track the data over the coming years; I have a feeling patterns will emerge...:)

[speedlet]

Toby --

If it's pointless to read her blog, isn't it even more pointless to post derisive comments on it?

MarkG and Willie --

Trying to shout down someone who is posting information you don't like is utterly futile. I've got news for you: the secret is out. Housing prices are falling. Are you going to try to get CNBC, the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg to go out of business next? If you don't like the news, turn it off.

[Sam]

Kate, Get real you enjoy the process more than buying a home. The reality is your blog could last years and you will never buy a house. Like I told you before make low offers. The time it took you to research and create this eleborate chart you could of made 10 offers.

[Jane]

"Due to my job location, I am pretty committed to Sherman Oaks and Studio City." Kate

I like when people talk back.

Do you know the communte via from LA to the valley (the reverse) is a dream, almost no traffic. When I was working in porn, I was very shocked at how quick it was to get to Van Nuys.

Have you thought about living in Northeast or Northwest LA like Los Feliz, Atwater, Highland Park, Mount Washington, Montecito Heights?

You're too nice of a lady to end up in the valley.

Jane

[Jane]

""Mark G" and "Willie" - if you don't like Kate's postings, why on earth are you reading this blog?" Tim K

Yep if you don't like a blog, don't post on it. You're driving up traffic, making it popular. If I don't like a blog I don't go there or post on it or link it, which is why I stopped going to that site where people use wikipedia as sources and then get angry when you ask about it.

Jane

[Kate]

Jane:

Yeah, the commute from Brentwood to the Valley is a dream. But a $750k house in Sherman Oaks is way bigger/nicer than a $750k house in... oh wait, there are no $750k houses in Brentwood. So you see my problem.

Thanks for saying I'm a nice lady! I swear there are lots of nice people here in majestic San Fernando Valley.

Sam:

Don't worry, when the market settles down a bit I will make some low offers. And! I will tell you all about.

[Jane]

"Yeah, the commute from Brentwood to the Valley is a dream. But a $750k house in Sherman Oaks is way bigger/nicer than a $750k house in... oh wait, there are no $750k houses in Brentwood. So you see my problem..." Kate

No problem, just get a better boyfriend or husband or partner. Yes I equate better with more money.

I think Larry David is available? He's funny. Do you care about the environment? He seems to like the type that cares, but likes to live in pretty houses.

You must be from the Valley. People from the Valley are very into their area, like people from Compton and Iowa.

I was at Tiki Ti once and this chick almost beat the crap out of me because I said something about Van Nuys (and her weird looking face.) That's when I learned that the people in the Valley are alot more hardcore than you would think.

Jane

[Dr. JwB]

I've said many times that Kate's posts are amongst my favorites, so no need for more cheerleading (Keep up the good work, Kate!).

I wish someone else would contribute to LA Land as Kate does, but from a different perspective. There should be several "LA Land Diaries", not just one. I hope Pete gets a volunteer who is an owner trying to sell, or someone searching for a home in another part of LA.

[Teresa Rothaar]

That's a good idea, Dr. JwB. If he could find one FSBO seller and one with an agent, it would be even better.

[Mark G]

Kate, I will give you your down payment for a majestic south-of-Ventura palace. But, you have to promise to stop posting.

[Monkey In Chief]

Those numbers should tell you something important. The volume drop is huge. Draw a basic linear supply and demand graph. The market was clearing in 2005 but the market is not clearing now. The demand line has shifted down and to the right. substantially explaining the volume drop. Prices due to unrealistic seller expectations are still sticky at above the market clearing level which means anything you buy puts at a large risk of losing of a lot of money since the market is out of equilibrium.

[boswort]

Seems like kate isnt a real buyer just a fictitious character created by somebody who likes to post a lot...After all,any body doing this much research on the market should now know that the fall from the mania peak has just begun and why would you not want to wait it out til it bottoms???The financing scam is over ergo so is real estate.
Banks wontlet you buy a house now unless you have 50-100k in cash for a downpayment on a crappy 500k house.Who in this worldhas 100k lying around in their bank accounts?Who wants to invest 100k cash in a crappy box that will be losing value like a plunging rock?
I think the new metric for determining re values is to take the avg home buyers cash savings and multiply that by 10 or by 5 (numbers representing 10 and 20% downpayment numbers).If people only have 25k in savings and if they are required to have 10% down the most home they will be able to buy is 250K.If they need 20%,they will only be able to buy a house in the125k range.And that is a long way down from where we are today but that is where re is going.