NAR forecast: Wrong again
In what now feels like a monthly ritual, the National Association of Realtors has once again cut its forecast of existing home sales for 2007, and has again predicted a recovery is just around the corner. Inman News:
"Existing-home sales are expected to fall 6.8 percent this year to 6.04 million, compared with 6.48 million in 2006, and to rebound to 6.38 million in 2008. The forecast calls for new single-family home sales to reach 852,000 this year, compared with 1.05 million in 2006..."
NAR economist Lawrence Yun: “Mortgage disruptions will hold back sales over the short term, but long-term fundamentals are favorable. ... “With the population growing, the demand for homes isn’t going away – it’s just being delayed.”
Because the Realtors have revised their forecast several times this year, skepticism abounds. The Motley Fool's Seth Jayson: "The old saw suggests that we can tell if a lawyer is lying by watching to see if his lips are moving. Lately, I've been thinking we need to update that joke by subbing in the Realtors."
Thoughts? Comments?
NAR is proving, once again, that if you want to know what is really going on in the housing market the last person you should ask is a Realtor.
They claim expertise and ethics, either they are lying (or more generously, "cheerleading") or they dont know the market, either way it isnt exactly a great press release for their already battered image.
Posted by: Cal | August 08, 2007 at 03:15 PM
Price to income ratios are at historical highs ...
Everyone now realizes that home prices can't be supported with the average income ...
And the Used Car Salesman says long term fundamentals are favorable ...
What an IDIOT Used Car Salesman...
For those people who lost their homes already, how about suing this clown to recover what you've lost. If not for this idiot lying to you about market conditions, you might still have your home or your equity. Cha-ching! Cha-ching! Guaranteed money!
Posted by: pugtv | August 08, 2007 at 03:23 PM
I am saving up right now for a DVR with an extended record time so I can catch every minute of the Senate hearings next year. "Uhh, no Senator I was just following what our numbers..blah, blah..."
Posted by: Rob | August 08, 2007 at 03:49 PM
Why doesn't the NAR take a tip from Toll Brothers and stop predicting their market...you just end up losing creditability.
Posted by: Jonah | August 08, 2007 at 03:51 PM
What they're doing seems just silly. They could be paving the road to hell with good intentions if they're attempting to play Fed and moderate the market, but even if that's what they're trying to do, well tempered truth might work out better for them.
Posted by: www.BetterVillage.com, XYZ, PDq. | August 08, 2007 at 03:58 PM