California foreclosures flat in July

Good morning. Nationally, foreclosure filings spiked by 9% from June to July, but in California the numbers held fairly steady, rising less than 1% from month to month, according to RealtyTrac.

Within California, Los Angeles is not a major foreclosure trouble spot. "Six California metropolitan areas reported foreclosure rates among the (nation's) top 10 in July:  Stockton at No. 2; Merced at No. 3; Modesto at No. 4; Vallejo-Fairfield at No. 5; Riverside-San Bernardino at No. 8; and  Sacramento at No. 9."

Year over year, California foreclosure filings were up by 289%, and California -- with 39,013 foreclosure filings -- has more than double the number of filings of any other state.

Thoughts? Comments? Insights? Email story tips to lalandblog@yahoo.com.

Comments

[Tim K.]

Talk about spinning the stats. It's the *rate*, not the direction.

I'm heading towards this brick wall at 60 mph. But hey, in the last 5 seconds my speed is STILL 60 mph! Whew, I thought for a minute I was accelerating! All is well! :)

[Kate]

But what does this actually mean on the ground? It seems like I'm seeing more "bank-owned foreclosure" listings all the time.

[Tim K.]

It means it's still a bad time to buy OR sell a house. House sales are slow, and it's just the beginning of the downturn in prices. Save your money and rent (or stay put in your existing home) for at least two years - the ARM resets and foreclosures are only going to continue or increase at roughly this pace.

[investorguy]

Kate: It depends on where in the process the data comes from. It takes 4 months from NOD to sale. So if the data is at the NOD point, those may have leveled off.

[longdriver]

One month does not a trend make. According to the all the rate reset charts I've seen the numbers don't jump much until October. I've been a little surprised that they are as high as they are already. Considering it takes another 3 to 9 months befor the homes actually get forclosed the really big numbers should not start to hit until next spring and summer. It also seems that the stats usually get revised later and are always worse after that. (although for some reason we never seem to hear about the revised figures). So, mix a martini, sit back lets see what happens......

[Matt]

I'm heading towards this brick wall at 60 mph. But hey, in the last 5 seconds my speed is STILL 60 mph! Whew, I thought for a minute I was accelerating! All is well! :)

Well put!!!!!

[pugtv]

I'm heading towards this brick wall at 60 mph. But hey, in the last 5 seconds my speed is STILL 60 mph! Whew, I thought for a minute I was accelerating! All is well! :)

Well put!!!!!

I 2nd or 3rd that ...

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Tim K, you and I know the car is going at 60 MPH heading towards a wall.

But the realtor will tell you it's Das Boot stablizing at 300 M underwater and it will soon float to the surface as soon as they fix all the leaks.

I must say though, the sonar tells me the thing resting motionless on the ocean floor next to the Mariana Trench right now, after the violent descent, shapes more like the Titanic.

[Kate]

"One month does not a trend make."

And that's really my point. This post needed more context to be informative.

[lbids]

But what does this actually mean on the ground? It seems like I'm seeing more "bank-owned foreclosure" listings all the time.

Posted by: Kate

What this means is that the number of new foreclosures coming on the market is at least the same as last month, at the same time the number of actual closed sales is falling. So yes, more REO's actually on the market competing against "human" sellers in fight over that endangered species- the qualified buyer.

[Kurk Rolands]

The reporter says: "but in California the numbers held fairly steady, rising less than one percent from month to month"

That is what I'd call "glass half-full" vision. So, foreclosures have risen less than one percent in one month and we should be happy? What's wrong with this picture? So, as long as foreclosures keep going up but at a slower pace, we should be happy.

Oh wait.... the last paragraph says: "Year over year, California foreclosure filings were up by 289%, and California -- with 39,013 foreclosure filings -- has more than double the number of filings of any other state"

Should we be happy about that as well?

[yours truly, johnny dollar]

Realtor's lament:
I just hope I die peacefully in my sleep as my father did...
not like the four other guys screaming at the top of their
lungs in his car with him.
This is the California real estate ponzi scheme cockroach;
only now, someone has it in his Kleig-light cross-hairs.
Watch who runs for the exits, first.

[Ace]

Kate said 'What this means is that the number of new foreclosures coming on the market is at least the same as last month, at the same time the number of actual closed sales is falling. So yes, more REO's actually on the market competing against "human" sellers in fight over that endangered species- the qualified buyer.'

I agree. I am starting to see more REO's here in the San Fernando Valley. However, the banks are still pricing them too highly to compete with the 'human' sellers. I don't even know of a single REO that has sold yet.

I read a while back (I can't remember the source) that it costs a bank an average of $70,000 in fees to do a foreclosure. Anyone else see a number like this? I know lawyers are expensive but that seems like a lot. But it would explain the bank's high prices on the REO's.

[1]

"I'm heading towards this brick wall at 60 mph. But hey, in the last 5 seconds my speed is STILL 60 mph! Whew, I thought for a minute I was accelerating! All is well! :)"

That is just classic. :))

[investorguy]

Ace: I've always heard something more in the $30,000 range, but that's still plenty. Banks don't want property. Hard money lenders love to get property. A bank's ability to lend is tied to the amount of real estate in its portfolio.

One of the issues banks face is that if they start discounting REOs, that will drive neighborhood prices down. That could hurt more owners and drive more foreclosures. It's a delicate dance.

It was a huge problem for owners in Detroit-- great for investors. But lousy for banks and buyers. There you can calculate discounts by DOM.