Murder and the economy

A reader asks an interesting question about the possible interplay between unemployment and homicide in response to Wednesday's note about declining homicide rates in L.A. County.

Below is a rough chart comparing the number of homicides in Los Angeles County, as reported by the coroner, and the countywide unemployment rate, as reported by the California State Economic Development Department.

Roughly, homicides were higher when the jobless picture was somewhat dimmer. Those who remember the early 1990s in L.A.--back when home prices dived and the aerospace job base collapsed--may also remember the epic homicide spike in those years. More recently, the region has seen tight labor markets and, up until recently, booming real estate. This has coincided with fewer homicides. *The 2007 numbers are estimated projections. For the values on this chart, hit "read on" below.

(chart by Times assistant graphics editor Thomas Suh Lauder)

Homicides, L.A. County

1991 2,054	
1992 2,113	
1993 2,070	
1994 1,816	
1995 1,789	
1996 1,535	
1997 1,295	
1998 1,053	
1999 965	
2000 1,076	
2001 1,161	
2002 1,231	
2003 1,142	
2004 1,131	
2005 1,152	
2006 1,085	
2007 968*
*estimate based on annualized figures, Jan-Aug. '07

Unemployment rate 

1991 8	
1992 9.9	
1993 10	
1994 9.3	
1995 8	
1996 8.3	
1997 6.9	
1998 6.6	
1999 5.9	
2000 5.4	
2001 5.7	
2002 6.8	
2003 7	
2004 6.5	
2005 5.3	
2006 4.7	
2007 4.8*
*estimate, avg through Aug.

Comments

[Mark]

Interesting statistics.

There are another pair of reasons for the decline in homicides.

1) The 3 strikes law and harsher 1st time violent crime convictions are keeping violent and predatory felons behind bars for longer stays
2) The crack cocaine drug trade has stabilized now as opposed to back in the early 90's.

[susie]

That 4.8 is not for Watts, because there are more jobless in this area and
no training for jobs

[i hate guns]

Oh, I remember the 90s. So many people I know shot, some killed. I didn't think I would make it through. I wanted to move to Europe or any country that had strict gun control. I'm too old now to leave Los Angeles but I still fear the widespread use of guns to solve problems. If people would fight it out like the old days, maybe actually touching the person would make them think twice about killing them. We live in such a dehumanized society, all atomized in our big cars and houses, our minds muddled by legal and illegal drugs, it's no wonder it's so easy for some to kill.

[Sam Hampton]

The graph looks like there is an association, but just because one number goes down with another number does not mean one causes the other. As some of the comments above indicate, other factors must be taken into the analysis--3 strikes, nature of the drug trade (such as competition among dealers)--and until other factors are taken into account, we won't be able to know what causes what.

[dre]

yes HOPELESSNESS and hopelessness always goes hand and hand.

look at richer areas they arent bunched in and stressed about providing
for families and they have the needed resources that people need to
keep moving ahead.

no justice no peace