UPDATED: Are Oscar acting upsets looming?

As we head into the home stretch, the favorites in the four acting categories appear to be Sean Penn ("Milk") for best actor, Kate Winslet ("The Reader") for best actress, Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight") for best supporting actor and Penelope Cruz ("Vicky Cristina Barcelona") for best supporting actress.

Most pundits (myself included) will probably project those four with a fair degree of confidence. Still, in the back of all of our heads, we all know that surprises can -- and often do -- happen (see Halle Berry, Adrien Brody or, for a different sort of surprise, Adrien Brody and Halle Berry on stage together). Therefore, I've decided to list every upset that could happen in the acting categories, from most to least fathomable.

They are:

• 1. Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler") for best actor
• This category tends to go to an actor who appears in a film that's also nominated for best picture, which Penn's is but Rourke's is not. Further, while Rourke was recognized by the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn., Penn was highlighted by SAG, which has a significantly greater overlap with AMPAS membership. Still, Rourke has the more engaging personal narrative -- like his character, he was down and out, but unlike his character, he's come back. Also, unlike Penn, he seems to really want the Oscar (he's been campaigning hard for months); unlike Penn, he's never before won; and unlike a Penn victory, a Rourke victory would provide an emotionally charged moment -- though both can be counted on for a good, if not exactly PC, speech.

• 2. Viola Davis ("Doubt") for best supporting actress
• She may be a no-name to many in the film community, having only sporadically appeared on screen over the years, but she's a well-respected theater actress who has a Tony to her name. This year, though, despite remarkably short screen time (just 12 minutes, all opposite Meryl Streep, no less!), her performance captured the attention of critics and voters, and she has proved a humble, humorous and omnipresent figure on the awards circuit. It's quite possible she'll prevail in her wide-open category thanks to (a) her remarkable personal narrative, (b) her well-earned reputation as an actor's actor, (c) hailing from the United States, (d) giving her work in one of only 32 films in history to earn four acting nods and (e) being one of the few black people to have earned an acting nomination from the academy, which might coalesce the support of fellow minorities, among others, behind her. Still, buyer beware: costar/fellow nominee Amy Adams could prove a spoiler.

• 3. Meryl Streep ("Doubt") for best actress
• Sure, she's collected more nominations than anyone else in history (15), and already has two Oscars, but she's also the biggest loser among actors in Oscar history (she's gone home empty-handed on 12 occasions), and it's been 26 years since she last won (a win this year would mark the third-largest gap between Oscars in history). With controversy about "The Reader" peaking as voters are filling out their ballots, and questions being raised about the urgency of rewarding Kate Winslet (a 33-year-old) for her work in it, she seems to be the most obvious alternative: She's well-known, well-liked and nominated for a film the academy clearly liked (even if members didn't give it a best pic nod), which is more than can be said for Anne Hathaway (her film's only nominee), Melissa Leo (one of only two) or Angelina Jolie (one of only three).

• 4. Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon") for best actor
• He's primarily considered a theater actor; he's not widely liked among his peers (though he is widely respected); he hasn't won any major precursor awards; he would be the sixth-oldest man nominated for best actor and the second-oldest to win the category's Oscar; and, like Richard Jenkins' and Brad Pitt's, his performance is widely regarded as a cut below Penn's and Rourke's. But he does have a few things going for him: lead actors of best picture-nominated films tend to win; lead actors in biopics tend to win; and people who have won Tony Awards for playing a character and then play it again on the big screen tend to win.

• 5. Marisa Tomei ("The Wrestler") for best supporting actress
• Yes, she's won before, but it's been a long time (16 years, to be precise), and she's never been better than she is -- or looked better than she does -- this year opposite Mickey Rourke. And if the perceived surge of momentum for Rourke is enough to carry him to a win, she could well come along for the ride on his coattails. Plus, it doesn't hurt that she plays a stripper -- voters love seeing a little skin, and many other women have previously been in the race and/or won for playing variations of the same woman -- someone who is down on her luck and a bit hardened on the outside, but ultimately shows that she possesses a heart of gold.

• 6. Taraji P. Henson ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") for best supporting actress
• When you're nominated for a movie that has 12 other nominations as well, you can never be counted out. Further, the beautiful actress is largely unrecognizable in her film under some major hair-and-makeup work, as she ages from 26 to 71 -- academy members love that kind of stuff. The problem is that she's neither an A-list star gunning for Oscar recognition in the supporting category (Cruz) nor the most acclaimed legitimate supporting part (Davis), but rather a working actress who's given strong performances under the radar for a long time, so it'll be a hard road.

• 7. Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married") for best actress
• We've devoted a full post to listing the reasons why Hathaway is an obvious choice to win: She's done well at the precursor awards (won the NBR, BFCA, Chicago Film Critics Assn. and Southeastern Film Critics Assn. awards; nominated for the Golden Globe, SAG, Indie Spirit, London Film Critics and Satellite awards); her film and performance were critical -- if not commercial -- hits; she's around the average age of best actress winners; she's sexy (voters love that) but plays un-sexy (the only thing they love more); her character deals with substance abuse problems (another voter fetish); her director has a great track record of getting awards attention for actors (he's previously guided six other actors to Oscar nods, and four won); oh, and she's gone through hell these past few months, having had to endure a humiliating scandal involving her boyfriend, then splitting with him, and then being berated by paparazzi while trying to promote her films. All good reasons why she could win. It takes only one sentence, however, to explain why she probably won't: Many voters openly despise the film for which she's nominated, which is probably why she's the only person associated with it who got a nomination.

• 8. Melissa Leo ("Frozen River") for best actress
• She's not a household name, but voters clearly know who she is because they nominated her over some big-name competition (Blanchett, Thomas, Beckinsale, etc.) for her work in a rather little film. Why? First and foremost, she gives a tour de force performance; second, she's been a humble, hard-working character actress for decades; and third, even if the general public didn't see her film in large numbers, voters did -- it was the first screener to arrive at their homes before the barrage of them began, so many checked it out and liked what they saw. It's still going to be hard for her to compete with actresses who have bigger PR operations behind them (Winslet and Streep), to say nothing of the younger and better-known actress on whose campaign her own studio has spent at least as much of its awards season money and time as they have on her own (Hathaway). But Hollywood loves nothing more than "a Hollywood ending" in which the little guy who has toiled quietly in the shadows finally prevails against all odds, because every person in Hollywood -- no matter how big -- sees himself or herself as "the little guy." Leo really is one -- at least for now....

• 9. Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor") for best actor
• If life were fair, Jenkins would already have a shelf full of best supporting actor Oscars, because he's been as solid a character actor as anyone for the last few decades. Finally given a shot at a leading role this year, he knocked it out of the park, but it seems that he picked the wrong year in which to offer a feel-good alternative to the favorite (Penn): Rourke seems to be cornering the market for his work in a film that was much more widely seen and has much more money behind it than Jenkins'. Still, if Penn and Rourke somehow split the vote (a la 2002, when Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson gave way to long-shot Brody), I wouldn't rule it out -- his performance is as worthy and he's as humble as they come, and it would make for a hell of a moment.

• 10. Brad Pitt ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") for best actor
• The best thing Pitt's got going for him -- aside from being with Angelina Jolie, who's also nominated this year (only six other couples have ever managed that feat) -- is that he's the star of a popular best picture nominee (his is but one of 13 nods!), just like all but 19 of the 81 best actor winners over the last 80 years (there was one tie). Inconveniently, though, Penn and Langella -- the stars of biopics, the academy's favorite genre -- can say the same, which is why they, along with Rourke, are thought to be out in front.

• 11. Angelina Jolie ("Changeling") for best actress
• Over the decade since she won the best supporting actress Oscar for "Girl, Interrupted," Jolie has primarily gravitated toward big-budget studio fare, become one of the biggest female celebrities in the world and shacked up with the biggest male celebrity in the world not named Obama. Now, with nothing really left to prove, Jolie has come full circle, returning to weightier material with "A Mighty Heart" last year (she was snubbed) and "Changeling" this year (she wasn't) -- both biopics about the struggles of single women -- in what appears to be an effort to restore her image as a serious actress. Playing a person in an insane asylum did the trick for her (and numerous others) at the Oscars in the past, but will it be enough this time? I suspect that the difference is that last time she was Jon Voight's pretty daughter, but this time she's the international superstar Angelina Jolie, and so I suspect that what many voters saw when they watched her film was not a mother looking for her son, but rather an actress looking for another Oscar.

• 12. Amy Adams ("Doubt") for best supporting actress
• Those who believe she can win point to the fact that she has the most screen time of any of the nominees in her category, didn't melt in her scenes opposite Meryl Streep and is a very sweet and likable person -- all true. But the problem is that her character is something of an audience surrogate -- a nun who passively witnesses most of the mania unfolding around her rather than actively advancing the plot herself -- which gets to be rather bland after a while, especially in comparison to her co-star Davis' brief but show-stopping performance, Cruz's hysterical artist, Tomei's sexy stripper or Henson's aging mother. So can she win? I'd be very surprised if she's even the highest-placing "Doubt" nominee.

• 13. Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Doubt") for best supporting actor
• The 2005 best actor winner is now also one of the few people to ever receive back-to-back best supporting actor nominations, so he is clearly held in very high regard by academy members, as is the film for which he is eligible this year. Further, as I've written before, his is a lead role posing in the supporting category -- and if we've learned anything in recent years, it's that academy members tend to reward quantity, sometimes even over quality, in the supporting categories (see Benicio Del Toro, George Clooney, Javier Bardem, etc.). Hoffman's problem, though, is that Ledger's is a lead too. Also, Hoffman hates campaigning, just as Ledger did, but Ledger can't/didn't have to this time, whereas Hoffman can and probably had to if he were to have any real chance, but he hasn't much.

• 14. Josh Brolin ("Milk") for best supporting actor
• After getting overlooked last year for all three of his standout performances (in "American Gangster," "In the Valley of Elah" and "No Country for Old Men"), he finally got a nod this year for playing Dan White -- a real person who did a terrible thing but whom Brolin does not caricaturize as a one-dimension villain, no easy feat -- though he could just as easily have picked one up for doing much the same thing with George W. Bush in "W." Both films received a great deal of attention and praise that must have made voters sit up and take enough notice to nominate him -- but enough to overcome the Ledger vote? Doubtful.

• 15. Robert Downey Jr. ("Tropic Thunder") for best supporting actor
• He's the feel-good story of the year -- in more ways than one, "the anti-Heath Ledger," as Tom O'Neil put it. He had great potential (see his previous nomination 16 years ago for "Chaplin"), he fell into drugs and arrogance and nearly blew it, but he got himself together and this year turned out "Iron Man" (one of the summer's biggest hits and a new franchise), "The Soloist" (supposedly an awards-quality film highlighted by his performance that was pushed to next year for financial reasons) and then this one, which provoked/provokes a bit of controversy but generally impressed people. Comedies almost never win Oscars, though.

• 16. Michael Shannon ("Revolutionary Road") for best supporting actor
• Shannon, who was previously best known for his theater work and had only sporadically appeared in films, faces some major obstacles: his lack of name recognition among voters; the extreme brevity of his performance (two scenes and eight minutes of screen time); the lack of public or academy affection for his film; the lack of major precursor attention (it was remarkable enough that he got nominated without HFPA or SAG nods, and only one person over the last decade has ever won without them). Oh -- and he's up against Heath Ledger. Even Shannon realizes it's a real uphill climb and has thrown his own support behind Downey.

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Photo: Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei. Credit: BAFTA

Comments

[Robert Hamer]

Here's to hoping that #1 and #8 come true and #3, #6, #14, #15, and #16 don't.

[Ray]

You can almost draw a line between #7 and #8 on that list regarding "has at least a remote shot at winning" vs. "has no chance." Anne Hathaway is a long short to pull an upset and win Best Actress, while Melissa Leo (who I've though was terrific going back to her "Homicide" days) is alas, a non-possibility.

And the tightest race is definitely Penn v. Rourke ... or maybe it should be Rourke v. Penn ...

[Paul Lynch]

With British bookmakers Mickey Rourke is the strong favorite at 1/2 while Penn is second at 2/1. Penn a good bet?

[David Schoonewolff]

The upsets I'm really rooting for are #1, #5 and #7.

[david]

Mickey Rourke wouldn't be an upset. He was chosen as best actor by the Golden Globes.

[shtexas]

I would shift Amy Adams up to #7 and move 7 through 11 all down a spot. She has a shot. It's a pretty open category.

[lady]

id love it if mickey rourke won, he really wants it bad, and truly deserves to win the oscar, and what a speech he'll have for us!!!!

[Stella]

The writer of this article contradicts himself: For Kate Winslet, he says that voters may question the importance of giving her this award at the relatively young age of 33. Yet for Anne Hathaway (25), he says that she is within the age range of a best actress Oscar winner. So which is it?

SF: I don't think this is a contradiction at all. I indicated that voters don't feel a sense of URGENCY about rewarding Winslet since she's only 33 and not going away. I also don't think they feel a sense of URGENCY about rewarding Hathaway. Regardless, the fact of the matter remains that most past best actress winners have been around THEIR age, not Meryl Streep's or Melissa Leo's.

[RUBI]

I JUST WANT THERE TO BE SURPRISES AT THE OSCARS. NOW EVERY ONE SEEMS TO KNOW WHO IS WINNING. ILL GIVE THE OSCARS A CHANCE IF JOLIE HAS A NICE DRESS AND IF THE FIRST 3 AWARDS DO NOT GO TO SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE.

[Aubrey]

Bad Behavior?

News going round of Rourke groping and hitting on models, actresses in London. British tabloids.

Don't know if that'll affect the Oscar women vote, even though there are more men in the Academy.

[KC]

I hope Meryl and Viola win for their roles in Doubt. They gave the better performances in their category. I hope Sean wins. I have a feeling Mickey is going to disappear just as quickly as he came back. I hope Milk upsets, I'm tired of hearing about Slumdog.

[WeinsteinHater]

plenty of talks about shockers, spoilers, uspets

i will go for the biggest shocker of the evening

the upset of all upsets, shockers, and spoilers

and im DEFINITE about this

MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS

MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS

MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS

MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS

MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS

MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS

MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS

[Matt]

How do you make Sean Penn favourite? None of the bookies do...Rourke is clear fave with all of them

[Gabriel]

I think this is one of those years that noone knows what will happens. Ledger is #1 fave, it'll be the biggest upset of all if he doesn't win. For the rest of the categories, so hard to decide, but Leo, Davis and Penn are my faves. Sorry Winslet, Hathaway, Streep, Langella, Tomei and Brolin, I love you all.

[ThermosDay]

It's ridiculous at this point to consider Sean Penn the favorite for Best Actor and Mickey Rourke the underdog. Everybody knows Rourke has all the momentum, all the buzz, and is on his way to the win. It will NOT be an upset.

[Dean Treadway]

I'm going for Rourke, Streep, Davis, and Ledger. I know, almost all of these are outside chances. But, with Rourke in particular, I don't see how the Academy can resist. With Streep, I feel that it's her time to be recognized once again. With Davis, I feel that hers is a textbook supporting performance. And Ledger--well, come on...no one's going to vanquish him.

[allansevens]

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE BEST PICTURE? REALLY? IS THE KIND OF PICTURE WOULD WATCH OVER AND OVER FOR GENERATIONS TO COME? I'VE SEEN ALL MOVIE ONLY BENJAMIN BUTTON STUCK IN MIND!

[Rob Daniel]

My pick for best picture is "The Reader". I've seen it twice and it is just as moving the second time as it was the first.
Kate Winslet should win Best Actress over Meryl Streep because of her performances in both "The Reader" and "Revolutionary Road".