Feinberg Files: Final projections for 2008 Academy Award nominations

Here is my forecast for how things will look following the announcement of the 2008 Academy Award nominations on Thursday morning...

BEST PICTURE

• 1. "Slumdog Millionaire" 
  
• 2. "Milk"
• 3. "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
• 4. "Frost/Nixon"
• 5. "The Reader"
• ALTERNATE: "The Dark Knight"
  
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: "Gran Torino"
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: "WALL-E"

BEST DIRECTOR

• 1. Danny Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire")
• 2. Gus Van Sant ("Milk")
  
• 3. David Fincher ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
  
• 4. Ron Howard ("Frost/Nixon")
• 5.  Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight") 
• ALTERNATE:  Stephen Daldry ("The Reader")
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Woody Allen ("Vicky Cristina Barcelona") 
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA:  Darren Aronofsky ("The Wrestler") 

BEST ACTOR

• 1. Sean Penn ("Milk")
• 2. Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon")
• 3. Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler") 
• 4. Clint Eastwood ("Gran Torino")
• 5.  Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor")
• ALTERNATE: Brad Pitt ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Josh Brolin ("W.")
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Dustin Hoffman ("Last Chance Harvey")

BEST ACTRESS

• 1. Meryl Streep ("Doubt")
• 2. Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married")
• 3. Angelina Jolie ("Changeling")
• 4. Melissa Leo ("Frozen River") 
  
• 5. Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road") 
• ALTERNATE: Sally Hawkins ("Happy-Go-Lucky")
  
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Cate Blanchett ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
  
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Kate Beckinsale ("Nothing but the Truth")
  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• 1. Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight")
  
• 2. Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Doubt")
  
• 3. Josh Brolin ("Milk")
• 4. Dev Patel ("Slumdog Millionaire")
• 5. Ralph Fiennes ("The Reader")
• ALTERNATE: Robert Downey Jr. ("Tropic Thunder")
  
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Michael Shannon ("Revolutionary Road")
  
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Eddie Marsan ("Happy-Go-Lucky")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• 1. Kate Winslet ("The Reader")
  
• 2. Penelope Cruz ("Vicky Cristina Barcelona")
  
• 3. Viola Davis ("Doubt")
  
• 4. Marisa Tomei ("The Wrestler")
  
• 5. Amy Adams ("Doubt")
  
• ALTERNATE: Taraji P. Henson ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
  
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Freida Pinto ("Slumdog Millionaire")
  
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Rosemarie Dewitt ("Rachel Getting Married")
  

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• 1. Simon Beaufoy ("Slumdog Millionaire")
  
• 2. Peter Morgan ("Frost/Nixon")
  
• 3. Eric Roth ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
• 4. David Hare ("The Reader")
  
• 5. Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan ("The Dark Knight")
  
• ALTERNATE: John Patrick Shanley ("Doubt")
  
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Clayton Frohman, Edward Zwick ("Defiance")
  
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Mark Fergus, Matt Holloway, Art Marcum, Hawk Ostby ("Iron Man")

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• 1. Dustin Lance Black ("Milk")
  
• 2. Woody Allen ("Vicky Cristina Barcelona")
• 3. Mike Leigh ("Happy-Go-Lucky")
• 4. Nick Schenck ("Gran Torino")
  
• 5. Courtney Hunt ("Frozen River")
  
• ALTERNATE: Robert D. Siegel ("The Wrestler")
  
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Jenny Lumet ("Rachel Getting Married")
  
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Tom McCarthy ("The Visitor")

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)

• 1. "WALL-E"
  
• 2. "Kung Fu Panda"
• 3. "Bolt"
  
• ALTERNATE: "Waltz With Bashir"
  
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: "$9.99" 
  
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA:  "Chicago 10"
  

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)

• 1. "Man on Wire"
  
• 2. "Trouble the Water"
  
• 3. "Standard Operating Procedure"
• 4. "I.O.U.S.A"
  
• 5.  "Blessed Is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Senesh"
• ALTERNATE: "At the Death House Door"
  
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: "Crips and Bloods: Made in America" 
  
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: "Gonzo: The Life and Work of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson"

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

• 1. "Waltz With Bashir" (Israel)
  
• 2. "The Baader-Meinhof Complex" (Germany)
  
• 3. "The Class" (France)
• 4. "Everlasting Moments" (Sweden)
• 5. "Departures" (Japan)
• ALTERNATE: "Three Monkeys" (Turkey)
  
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: "The Necessities of Life" (Canada) 
  
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: "Captain Abu Raed" (Jordan)
  

BEST ART DIRECTION

• 1. Donald Graham Burt, Tom Reta ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
  
• 2. Mark Digby ("Slumdog Millionaire")
  
• 3. Nathan Crowley ("The Dark Knight")
• 4. James J. Murakami ("Changeling") 
• 5.  Debra Schutt, Kristi Zea ("Revolutionary Road")
• ALTERNATE: Bill Groom ("Milk")
  
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Guy Hendrix Dyas ("Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull")
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: J. Michael Riva ("Iron Man") 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• 1. Anthony Dod Mantle ("Slumdog Millionaire")
  
• 2. Claudio Miranda ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
  
• 3. Wally Pfister ("The Dark Knight") 
• 4. Chris Menges, Roger Deakins ("The Reader")
  
• 5. Mandy Walker ("Australia")
• ALTERNATE: Roger Deakins ("Revolutionary Road")
  
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Harry Savides ("Milk")
  
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Maryse Alberti ("The Wrestler")
  

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• 1. Jacqueline Durran ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
  
• 2. Michael O'Connor ("The Duchess")
  
• 3. Albert Wolsky ("Revolutionary Road")
• 4. Lindy Hemming ("The Dark Knight") 
• 5. Patricia Field ("Sex and the City: The Movie")
• ALTERNATE: Deborah Hopper ("Changeling")
  
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Catherine Martin ("Australia")
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Amy Westcott ("The Wrestler")

BEST FILM EDITING

• 1. Chris Dickens ("Slumdog Millionaire")
  
• 2. Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill ("Frost/Nixon")
  
• 3. Lee Smith ("The Dark Knight")
• 4. Kirk Baxter, Angus Hill ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
  
• 5. Elliot Graham ("Milk")
• ALTERNATE: Dane Collier, Dylan Tichenor ("Doubt")
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE:  Tariq Anwar ("Revolutionary Road")
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Dody Dorn, Michael McCusker ("Australia")

BEST MAKEUP

• 1. Greg Cannom ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") 
  
• 2. John Caglione Jr., Connor O'Sullivan ("The Dark Knight") 
• 3. Ivana Primorac, Mathew Weston Smith ("The Reader")
• ALTERNATE: John Blake, Michelle Burke ("Tropic Thunder") 
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Judy Chin, Mike Marino ("The Wrestler") 
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Naomi Dunne, Mike Marino ("Synecdoche, New York") 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• 1. A.R. Rahman ("Slumdog Millionaire")
  
• 2. Alexandre Desplat ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
  
• 3. James Newton Howard, Hans Zimmer ("The Dark Knight")
• 4. Thomas Newman ("WALL-E")
  
• 5. Danny Elfman ("Milk") 
• ALTERNATE: Hans Zimmer ("Frost/Nixon")
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Clint Eastwood ("Changeling") 
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Thomas Newman ("Revolutionary Road")

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• 1. "The Wrestler" ("The Wrestler")
  
• 2. "Down to Earth" ("WALL-E")
  
• 3. "Jai-Ho" ("Slumdog Millionaire") 
• 4. "I Thought I Lost You" ("Bolt")
  
• 5. "Once in a Lifetime" ("Cadillac Records") 
• ALTERNATE: "Another Way to Die" ("Quantum of Solace")
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: "Gran Torino" ("Gran Torino") 
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: "If the World" ("Body of Lies")

BEST SOUND EDITING

• 1. Michael Babcock, Richard King, Michael W. Mitchell, Hamilton Sterling ("The Dark Knight")
  
• 2. Ben Burtt, Matthew Wood ("WALL-E")
• 3. Frank E. Eulner, Ken Fischer, J.R. Grubbs ("Iron Man") 
• 4. Glenn Freemantle, Tom Sayers ("Slumdog Millionaire") 
• 5. Ben Burtt, Richard Hymns, Dee Selby ("Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull")
• ALTERNATE: Eddy Joseph, Oliver Tarney ("Quantum of Solace")
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Lon Bender ("Defiance")
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Ren Klyce ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")

BEST SOUND MIXING

• 1. Ben Burtt, Tom Myers, Michael Semanick ("WALL-E")
  
• 2. Christopher Boyes, Lora Hirschberg, Mark Ulano ("Iron Man") 
• 3. Lora Hirschberg, Ed Novick, Gary A. Rizzo ("The Dark Knight") 
• 4. Resul Pookutty, Richard Pryke, Ian Tapp ("Slumdog Millionaire")
• 5. Chris Munro, Mike Prestwood Smith, Mark Taylor ("Quantum of Solace")
• ALTERNATE: Simon Hayes, Michael Minkler ("Mamma Mia!")
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Anna Behlmer, Petur Hliddal, Andy Nelson ("Defiance")
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Mark Weingarten ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• 1. Eric Barba, Craig Barron, Nathan McGuinness, Edson Williams ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
  
• 2. Chris Corbould, Nick Davis, Paul J. Franklin, Tim Webber ("The Dark Knight")   
• 3. Shane Mahan, John Nelson, Ben Snow ("Iron Man")
  
• ALTERNATE: Diana Giorgiutti, Chris Godfrey, James E. Price ("Australia")
• POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Martin Casper Andersen, Jeppe N. Christensen, David Hubert, Changeui Im, Csaba Nemeshazi, Lajos Soos, Mike Wassel ("Hellboy II: The Golden Army")
• SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDA: Satish Babu, Michael Brue Ellis, Eric Leven ("Cloverfield")

NOTE: I will not be projecting BEST ANIMATED FILM (SHORT), BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT) , BEST LIVE-ACTION FILM (SHORT), as the eligible films were not made available to me for review.

---

Photo: Oscar. Credit: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Comments

[Matt Mazur]

Gosh, I hope The Reader doesn't make it that far....

It would be much nicer to see Kross, rather than Fiennes...

...and I've Loved You So Long is an original screenplay, btw ;)

[Robert Hamer]

Oh, predictions...how many do I hope NOT come true? Let me count the ways:

1) The phony The Reader nominated over the sensational The Dark Knight for Best Picture.

2) Clint Eastwood nominated for playing himself in Gran Torino and Benicio del Toro not even listed as a "Potential Surprise" for his turn in Che.

3) Angelina Jolie's and Meryl Streep's slices of overcooked ham being nominated over Kristin Scott Thomas' haunting performance. I guess one foreign language performance per decade is already pushing it for the Academy...

4) Dev Patel's total lack of screen presence being nominated over Michael Shannon's show-stealing performance.

5) Taraji P. Henson is listed as an "Alternate" for acting like she was in a minstrel show.

6) Doubt has a better chance than Rachel Getting Married of having two nominees for Best Supporting Actress.

7) Nick Schenck's Hallmark channel movie screenplay has a better shot at a nomination than Rachel Getting Married AND The Wrestler.

8) Mark Friedberg not even listed as a "Potential Surprise" Art Direction nominee for Synecdoche, New York. He shoulda been a contenda!

9) No chance for Eiko Ishioka's costumes of The Fall.

10) One of the most poorly edited major films I've seen in years, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, will be nominated for Best Editing. Yet no mention of Andrew Weisblum's great work on The Wrestler.

11) Regina Spektor's beautiful song "The Call" isn't listed, but the messy "Another Way to Die" is an "Alternate".

12) You actually think that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button "Shoulda Been a Contenda" over The Wrestler for Sound nominations?........Really?

13) And finally, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, one of the most BORING and poorly-conceived (story-wise)movies of 2008, representing David Fincher at a creative nadir, will probably be nominated Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and maybe even *shudder* Best Actor. What a shame.

Obviously I'm not criticizing you (save for point #12), these are your predictions, not your personal preferences. I'm criticizing how the politics of this year's Oscar season is going to honor some truly unworthy work, while lots of great work will be ignored.

[MattL]

How did you get the five best picture selections correct?
You had the Reader at #10 on your blog. Did you get some insider info? Ha!

[Terrance]

Oh Mr. Hamer, lighten up! I, as well as a countless number of others, actually LOVED 'Benjamin Buttons'. Let it go already.

[Zach]

You were smart to predict Frozen River, and obviously The Reader.

[JEditor]

I think in this case it should be "Mr. Hammer" with whom I happen to agree on many of his hammerings, particularly the curious nomination of the Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
First, let me say that I didn't see the film because I could barely make it through the BORING preview--the entire premise of the movie was uninspiring and to be honest--somewhat disturbing. The attempt to be original in some cases is sometimes just random, and it doesn't always make it good.

What amuses me is the correlation to box office revenue vs. awards or nominations (there should be a correlation). What makes a good movie good? I would define a good movie as one that people enjoy seeing... that being the point and all (making money aside, yadda yadda). Marketing issues may skew some of the numbers and indies may be left out in the cold due to lack of funds, but when it comes down to it, the ones that hit the theatre and tank when it comes to revenue usually tank for a reason--because they sucked. I really couldn't care less that some academy thought the editing was masterful or that the directing was superb. Or the costumes were grand. Did I fall asleep during the movie? Was I focused on how many calories my biggie sized M&M's had in them, or was I actually sucked into the movie, forgetting what I was doing? For those who use many more criteria (for judging best picture) other than "did I like it?" I say, "Get over yourselves."

I will remain unconcerned with what movies the critics liked and disliked for whatever reasons (aka, Alvin and the Chipmunks--enjoyable down to the last moment, yet relentlessly ripped on by critics in the beginning) and will continue to call movies like I see them... as in the case of Benjamin Button--SUCKY. Alivin--NOT SUCKY. (Those are my two criteria--it really can be that simple.) So of ALL the movies the reviewers saw during the year, the Button movie was in their top 5 most enjoyalbe movie-going experiences? So, if they could see any movie over again, they are telling me that would be it? Seriously?
Tell me if I'm being unfair; was it really that much better than the preview alluded to?