11/4: "Files" Sharing...

• My LAT colleague Tom O'Neil polled six awards pundits (including me and himself) as part of an effort to forecast the picture, actor and actress races. There was total agreement on several contenders: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Slumdog Millionaire" for picture; Sean Penn ("Milk") for actor; and Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married") and Meryl Streep ("Doubt") for actress. Other noteworthy stats: I was the lone dissenter when it came to including summer blockbuster "The Dark Knight," which seems to be holding strong in the face of later/newly trailered releases like "Gran Torino" and "The Reader"; I, for better or worse, am the only one who still believes "Australia" and its star Nicole Kidman can overcome a harried post-production and garner nods; and Tom, who knows his history, is the only one who believes voters will ignore studio pleas to regard Kate Winslet's work in "The Reader" as a supporting performance, arguing that it will instead bounce her "Revolutionary Road" turn from lead. (Also, God love him, Tom is still aboard the "Changeling" express, which as I saw it went off the tracks weeks ago at the New York Film Festival.)

• Jeff Wells suspects that the recently announced decision of Oscar nominee Joaquin Phoenix ("Gladiator," "Walk the Line") to quit acting (ostensibly to pursue a music career) is really "a Frank Sinatra/Daniel Day-Lewis retirement ... two or three years and then back in." Wells also provoked a bit of controversy -- I'm shocked! Shocked! -- by noting: "When he returns, 'Joaq' might want to be a few pounds thinner. He's been looking a little chunky lately.  A little bit of a Brian Dennehy thing going on." (For whatever reason, Wells apparently associates obesity with Dennehy, because he made a similar reference to the acting vet in a piece poking fun at Ryan Gosling only a year or so ago.)

• My LAT colleague Patrick Goldstein, who in recent years has positioned himself as the ombudsman of the Oscar blogosphere, believes that video killed the radio star online reviews are killing studio embargoes that have historically prevented members of the (print) press from publishing reviews until a studio-dictated date certain. "In today's Web-centric world," Goldstein correctly notes, "embargoes are a joke, since as soon as anyone appears to break the embargo, the competitive juices start overflowing for every other journalist or critic, who immediately feels the burning desire to post a review of their own." His singling out of David Poland's allegedly premature "Milk" write-up provoked a harsh retort from Poland, who says he played by the rules he was given. Poland goes on to argue for uniform rules for all outlets and against the continuing practice of giving priority to the trade papers, which he feels is an outdated practice.

• Dave Karger and Missy Schwartz -- OK, mostly Dave Karger -- discuss the two men they believe are the front-runners for best actor: Sean Penn ("Milk") and Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon"). I, for one, am not as sold on Langella's prospects as they are, but we'll see.

• Kris Tapley attended a screening of the Steve McQueen (no, not that one) film "Hunger" at the AFI Fest on Sunday and writes that it impressed him as "one of the year's best films," and one for which nominal star Michael Fassbender "might have secured momentum in the awards season with a concerted push, but I'm not sure that one is coming -- certainly nothing that can compete with the dollars that will be speaking for the year's more apparent contenders." Fassbender's performance was excellent, but the film struck me as more of an ensemble piece in which several actors shone roughly the same. But, yes, I agree with Kris (write it down!) that nothing's doing as far as awards go.

• Anne Thompson delves into the screening deadlines that "Australia" will miss if director Baz Luhrmann fails to get it done very, very soon. I'm hearing that Luhrmann's passion project about his homeland, which runs about 2.5 hours and has no obvious target demographic, has cost about $150 million, making it one of the bigger gambles in recent memory. He has, however, apparently been given a very long leash by Fox, perhaps because Fox is a subsidiary of News Corp., which is owned by Rupert Murdoch, who is also a native Australian, is a close friend of Luhrmann and has great confidence in his artistic vision.

• The trailer of the Charlie Kaufman film "Synecdoche, New York" is worth a look for several reasons: (1) the film is extraordinary, possibly my No. 1 of the year thus far; (2) the song that begins playing about halfway through ("Little Person," by Jon Brion) is haunting; and (3) I believe that Jennifer Jason Leigh, in the snippet shown after her name is shown, has a bit of a nipple-slip that made it past the censors.

• Remind me not to invite Dustin Hoffman to my wedding -- 41 years ago in "The Graduate" (1967), he caused a scene at his ex's nuptials by banging on expensive glass windows and screaming "Elaine!" Now he's gone all the way to London to cause a ruckus at his daughter's wedding in "Last Chance Harvey," which has just been trailered. I saw the film a few weeks ago and became convinced that: (1) in a weak year for musicals/comedies, it could be a big player at the Golden Globes; and (2) Liane Balaban (no relation to character actor Bob), the 28-year-old Canadian actress (and synth-punk singer) who plays Hoffman's daughter, is, for lack of a better term, bangin'!

---

Photo: Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married." Credit: Sony Pictures Classics