Grammys midway Part 1: Estelle, Katy Perry and an early look at 2008's notable new artists

The year may be at its midpoint, but when it comes to the Grammys, that mark has long since passed. With the eligibility period for next year’s awards ending on Sept. 30, there’s little more than three months left in the world of Grammy.

Though it's admirable that the Recording Academy coincides the end of its year with the conclusion of baseball's regular season, new artists are at a disadvantage. There isn't much time left in the Grammy year to establish a "public identity," the vaguely written criteria that determines who is eligible for a best new artist nomination.

Indeed, it's rare that a best new artist nominee is actually a new artist. Even last year's winner, the troubled Amy Winehouse, had been nominated for a Brit Award back in 2004 (she lost to Dido). And rarer still does a best new artist nominee come from outside the major label system. It took signing with a major for Recording Academy voters to notice R&B singer Ledisi, a veteran of the independent world.

It makes for one of Grammy's most confounding -- and most debated -- categories. So with the year at it's midpoint, and Grammy season only weeks away, all this week Extended Play will be taking a look at some of 2008's notable new artists, and how they may fare come Grammy time. Next week, the same treatment will be given to the mid-year's top albums.

Leona Lewis: The British R&B/pop singer won the U.K's "The X-Factor" (think "American Idol"), and then won the support of Oprah in the states. She had a No. 1 album soon after, driven by the inescapable Whitney Houston-influenced "Bleeding Love."

Grammy potential: Absolutely. Lewis is a lock for a number of nominations, and her Grammy campaigning actually began at last year's awards, as Lewis was the showcase act at Clive Davis' pre-Grammy party. Davis may no longer head J Records, but there's plenty of goodwill toward the exec, and Lewis has proven to have staying power, as her album, "Spirit," is still in the Top 20 more than two months after it was released.

Grammy deserving: Not so much. On its own, "Bleeding Love," a slow-building throwback of a tune, is worthy of a nod or two, but "Spirit" is little more than a showcase for a pretty voice, failing to establish much of a personality for the budding star.

The Ting Tings: The perky British pop-rock duo has already scored a No. 1 album in the U.K. with its debut, "We Started Nothing," and the punk-meets-disco sass of "Shut Up and Let Me Go" established the band in the U.S., thanks to its placement in an iPod commercial.

Grammy potential: Mixed, as of now. The band has a moderate level of success in the states, but is far from a household name, and the act's hard-to-pin down rock 'n' roll dance may keep the Tings confined to a genre category. But there's a wild card here, as the band is signed to Columbia, the label overseen by Rick Rubin, and Grammy tends to love all things associated with Rubin. Additionally, the Tings could squeak in via the same Recording Academy contingent that voted for Paramore last year.

Grammy deserving: You bet. The Tings might come off as silly at first, but the band uses its bubblegum spunk to craft winning melodies out of pinball machine noises, and then brings it all home with some dashingly simple guitar riffs.

Katy Perry: The pop-rock newcomer has already snared a Top 10 hit in the U.S. with "I Kissed a Girl," one of the leading singles from her sure-to-be-successful "One of the Boys," a glistening album full of the best session-musician guitar riffs money can buy, and a bevy of easy-to-quote, over-the-top lyrics.

Grammy potential: Perry should be on pace for some prime nominations and is an early favorite to score a nom in the best new artist field. The media loves to talk to her and photograph her (the publication I work for has given her a story here, and another one over here, and a blog post over here, and another blog post over here, and hey, how about a photo gallery? That is over here). "One of the Boys" is also loaded with top-shelf industry producers, including Dr. Luke and Butch Walker (Avril Lavigne) and should be piped out of malls across America all summer.

Grammy deserving: Not quite. Perry's debut is engineered to get in your head and stay there, and there are times this overly-produced album can wear you down. She'll begrudgingly win a smile on "Ur So Gay," a long overdue take-down of boys who think its acceptable to wear a scarf when snow isn't on the ground (it's not, obviously), but the oh-so-clever bluntness of the album is borderline shtick, and Perry misfires badly with the love-as-transaction rocker of "If You Can Afford Me."

Vampire Weekend: One of the indie success stories of the year, this peppy East Coast quartet is the rock 'n' roll soundtrack for a tea party.

Grammy potential: It would seem to be harder and harder for Recording Academy voters to ignore the independent music in the major fields, as the days of the top of the charts being owned by high-profile major label releases are over. Yet ignore them they do. That being said, Vampire Weekend would probably be a safe bet for a best new artist nomination, as the act's self-titled debut, released on indie XL, was a Top 20 album, and the band's minimalist arrangements are breezy and accessible. But then again, the Arcade Fire would have seemed an obvious choice for a best new artist nomination as well.

Grammy deserving: One could do worse, but one could also do better. Vampire Weekend supporters like to cite the band's worldly influences, but the band could actually use a bit more variety. The band is pleasant, but easily forgettable, as Vampire Weekend's light and airy grooves are tension-free, and the act's Ivy League coyness is just as calculated as anything from the above artists.

Estelle: No, not a new artist, per say, but Grammy isn't one to get technical on that fact. Estelle's "Shine" was her second album, but first to get a push in the U.S., and the British R&B singer has a fast-rising song with the swift "American Boy" featuring Kanye West.

Grammy potential: Estelle should be the type of artist Grammy voters love. Her fresh take on R&B spans genres, from the reggae bump of "Come Over" to the jazzy inflections of "Wait a Minute (Just a Touch)" to the retro timelessness of "No Substitute Love." Estelle's more inventive than 2006 best new artist nominee Chris Brown, and just as elegant as 2005 best new artist winner John Legend, who also, by the way, guests on "Shine." Although her association with Chicago's West might bring out the Kanye West Grammy Curse (lots of nominations, no pop wins).

Grammy deserving: Absolutely. See all the reasons above.

More to come. Stay tuned.

Photos, from left: Estelle, www.estellemusic.com; Vampire Weekend, XL; Katy Perry, Bob Chamberlin / Los Angeles Times

Comments

[Keith]

the fact that you didn't mention Duffy in your report lets me know that this article is as valid as Britney Spears is a valid vocalist. Shame LA Times!

[Todd Martens]

Hi Keith,

It's part one. Stay tuned.

[Janice]

Katy Perry gave her nomination to Leona Lewis back in March on her blog and was effusive in her praise:

http://katyperryblog.tumblr.com/post/31223666/recognizing-greatness

Ironically one of the positives you mention for Katy, the producer Dr Luke, is one she Leona share on their album.

[DanS]

The Ting Tings? What, are you kidding? Actually, Vampire Weekend deserves a nod more than most of the artists mentioned in the article. Sure, their ivy league look and subject matter are calculated, but the songs are far from forgettable. In fact, they're complex, subtle, and heartfelt, and the melodies are highly memorable. I've enjoyed more listens to this album than any other this year.
I also agree with Keith that Duffy stands a good chance of being nominated.

[Todd Martens]

Hi Dan,

Yes, I'm serious. I think the Tings are a good band, and they've had a moderate amount of success, and I don't count out the Rick Rubin factor.

But yes, agreed on Duffy. I'm kind of mixed on her, but she was written up here, in case you missed it:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/extendedplay/2008/06/grammys-at-mi-1.html

Thanks for reading,
Todd