Grammy prediction week: Record of the year

With the Grammy nominations coming Thursday (Dec. 6, 2007 -- for those reading this blog years in the future), it's time to get serious about doing some predicting.

Throughout the week, a number of major categories will be run down, and feel free to argue/post/etc.

Highlights from the user comments will be showcased as much as I can -- or when I'm procrastinating on writing up another category.

First up is a look at record of the year.

Last year, the award went to the Dixie Chicks' "Not Ready to Make Nice," but the category included selections from Gnarls Barkley ("Crazy"), Mary J. Blige ("Be Without You"), James Blunt ("You're Beautiful") and Corinne Baily Rae ("Put Your Records On").

I would have predicted "Crazy" to win, since the single was a bit of a cultural phenomena and crossed genre barriers unlike anything else in the category. But alas, it lost, so don't put complete faith in my forecasting skills.

And now the record of the year nominees:

-- Rihanna's "Umbrella" featuring Jay-Z
-- Feist's "1234"
-- Kanye West's "Stronger"
-- Lily Allen's "Smile"
-- Linkin Park's "What I've Done"

So everyone I talk to tells me Amy Winehouse will get a record of the year nom over Lily Allen, but I'm steadfastly sticking to the better song by going with "Smile." The song is more now, representing a mesh of styles with a dash of electronics, whereas "Rehab" is just the work of a soul revivalist.

West's "Stronger" and "Umbrella" from Rihanna (pictured, above) are as close as anything to a ubiquitous single in 2007, and they should get nods here. Linkin Park (pictured, below right) will be huge, scoring one of the bestselling rock records of the year, and "What I've Done" was the kind of mid-tempo bid for maturity that Grammy voters fall for.

Feist's "1234" became a hit after it was featured in a commercial for a popular MP3 device, and I think it will sneak in as the left-of-center choice here.

Other possibilities might be Bruce Springsteen's "Radio Nowhere," any one of Akon's massive hits and the aforementioned Winehouse.

And -- for fun -- here's a look at those singles that should be nominated:

-- Rihanna's "Umbrella" featuring Jay-Z
-- Kanye West's "Stronger"
-- Mavis Staples' "99 and 1/2"
-- M.I.A.'s "Paper Planes"
-- LCD Soundsystem's "All My Friends"

The above sticks with two of the year's most undeniable tracks in "Umbrella" and "Stronger," but gets a little more political with Staples' "99 and 1/2" and M.I.A.'s "Paper Planes," which seem appropriate for today's cultural climate.

Both capture completely different viewpoints.

M.I.A. comes off as a hip-hop activist, backpacking through the Third World and pilfering as many sounds as she can. Staples takes a more faith-based approach, updating a gospel classic with contemporary lyrics and a snaking groove. LCD Soundsystem's "All My Friends" is a fascinating single, a slow-building disco anthem centered around a repetitive keyboard and some clever self-reflection in the lyrics.

Best new artist is up next, so send in some picks, if you haven't posted them earlier.

Some users have been kind enough to submit their own picks for the Record of the Year category.

Read them below, with bonus commentary.

For record of the year, Dynasty offered the following:

Beyoncé, "Irreplaceable"
Alicia Keys, "No One"
Maroon 5, "Makes Me Wonder"
Rihanna f/ Jay-Z, "Umbrella"
Amy Winehouse, "Rehab"

Rihanna is our only over-lapping cut. "No One" is a great single, but it's so much about Alicia Keys' vocal acrobatics that I don't know if it will graduate from the pop vocal performance category.

I also think Recording Academy voters will feel more comfortable with Amy Winehouse's "Rehab" recognized solely in the vocal category as well, and Lily Allen's "Smile" is a little more universal. That being said, Keys and Winehouse are fine choices here, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them nominated.

Beyoncé has had better songs that didn't get a Record of the Year nom, so I shied away from her. Dynasty is certainly right that Grammy likes Maroon 5, but it's slight, and wasn't as big of a hit as, say, a Jame Blunt's "Beautiful," so I'm leaving it off.

Magnum Boulder wrote in with the following:

Beyoncé, "Irreplaceable"
Feist - "1234"
Ludacris f/ Mary J. Blige, "Runaway Love"
Rihanna f/Jay Z, "Umbrella"
Carrie Underwood, "Before He Cheats"
Kanye West - "Stronger"
Amy Winehouse, "Rehab"

Nice to see at least someone else thinks Feist has a shot here. Carrie Underwood is an interesting choice, and (I'll) be curious to see how she does in the major categories, but I think "Before He Cheats" is a long shot here.

But watch out for fellow country star Taylor Swift, who might also sneak in some of the pop fields.

(Rihanna photo courtesy AFP/Getty Images; Linkin Park photo courtesy AP)

Comments

[Dynasty]

Just some pointers you should know about:

Kanye's "Stronger" wasn't submitted in Record of the Year (he submitted "Good Life" instead). Also, "Makes me Wonder" spent more weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100 than "You're Beautiful"...

[-TM]

Hi Dynasty,
Thanks. Hadn't been told that about 'Stronger.' That's interesting, if true, and labels/artists/managers are certainly known to submit different tracks from the same artists for different categories, and then lobby accordingly. Nevertheless, 'Stronger' is the better tune, at least in my mind. But I am aware of the chart history for Blunt/Maroon 5.
-TM

[Jones]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if "before he cheats" makes an appearance here. Grammy's love the big songs of the year. And hello, "before he cheats" was HUGE. idiotic to assume Lily Allen would make it over Winehouse. This was the year of Winehouse. Lilly is just the bratty British singer who likes to kick the paparazzi. I don't think enough people have heard it to consider it in this category. The song is decent at best. i would say Rihanna is a definite bet here. Kanye is iffy, yes his music is good, but his negative behavior at every award show might cost him some votes.

Amy Winehouse-Rehab
Carrie Underwood-Before He Cheats
Rihanna feat Jay-Z-Umbrella
Beyonce-Irreplaceable
Feist-1234

[Rohan]

i think the grammy's might be a little more daring this year and the record of the year could turn out to be like

Amy Winehouse-Rehab
Lily Allen-Smile
Regina Spekor-Fidelity
Rihanna ft. Jay-Z-Umbrella
Norah Jones- Thinkin about you

why 'ive chosen these?
Amy Winehouse got soul back!
Lily Allen has a strong album with many universally known tracks
Regina Spektor has soooooo much buzz around her!
Rihanna's single was chart topping!
Norah jones is loved by the grammy's!

[Michael]

What a lovely world it would be if All My Friends had a shot. LCD must take the alternative gold though, a sad day if it doesn't.

[Hybrid87]

Frontrunners:
Lily Allen
Athlete
Jason Michael Carroll
Miley Cyrus
Daughtry
Feist
Gym Class Heroes
Kate Havnevik
Justice
LCD Soundsystem
Amos Lee
James Morrison
Plain White Ts
Mark Ronson
Taylor Swift
Amy Winehouse
Elliott Yamin

Tier II: (Might surprise us)
Colbie Caillat
The Feeling
Taylor Hicks
Sean Kingston
Menomena
Chrisette Mitchell
SwizzBeats
30 Seconds to Mars
The View

Tier III: (Longshots but not entirely implausible nominees)
Asobi Seksu
Bat for Lashes
Clap your hands Say yeah
Cold War Kids
The Fratellis
Lloyd
Katherine McPhee
Mika
MIMS
Paolo Nutini
Keke Palmer
Grace Potter and the Nocturnals
Fionn Regan

Who should get nominated:
Bat for Lashes
LCD Soundsystem (even though they have been around for a while and previously nominated but submitted by their record company nevertheless. Same for Feist who should have won that Female Pop award a coupla years ago for "Inside and out")
Feist
Fionn Regan
The View

Who Will Get Nominated:
Daughtry
LCD Soundsystem
Amos Lee
Taylor Swift
Amy Winehouse

[Dynasty]

Just so you know, I've recently revised my predictions in Record of the Year and I'm sticking with them until Thursday morning:

Beyoncé, "Irreplaceable"
Fergie, "Big Girls Don't Cry"
Maroon 5, "Makes Me Wonder"
Rihanna f/ Jay-Z, "Umbrella"
Amy Winehouse, "Rehab"

[-TM]

Thanks, Dynasty. Hmmm, I'll probably change mine again before Thursday. The more people I speak to, the more conflicting/confusing reports I get. Argh. I've been going back and forth on including Fergie in there myself, and then which Fergie song.

[Brian Buchana]

I really think you should look at the Grammy entry lists in the Grammy forum. It will clear up any confusion you have about category placements. :)