Update: Grammy crash course

Let the debate begin.

As the Recording Academy gets set to announce the nominations for the 50th annual Grammy Awards, will the ceremony acknowledge a changing record industry? One in which independent acts such as the Arcade Fire and the Shins can land at the top of the charts?

Or will the Grammys stick with the old faithfuls, handing out nomination after nomination to the likes of Bruce Springsteen and Paul McCartney?

Thursday morning at around 8:50 a.m. in Los Angeles, the Recording Academy will announce the nominees for the 2008 Grammy Awards. Members of superstar rock act Linkin Park will be on hand at the news conference, as will country upstart Taylor Swift and budding R&B superstar Akon.

One thing is certain: they won't leave Los Angeles without a nomination. But what of Amy Winehouse? Or Lily Allen? And who's going to be left out?

But enough preamble. Let's get to some Grammy-nominee predicting. Check back after the announcements for detailed categorical insight, but for now, here's a run-down of who is likely to appear in some of the major categories.

Album of the Year

Best bets:
Bruce Springsteen's "Magic"
Linkin Park's "Minutes to Midnight"
Paul McCartney's "Memory Almost Full"
Kanye West's "Graduation"
Amy Winehouse's "Back to Black"

Possibles:
Daughtry's "Daughtry"
Akon's "Konvicted"
Arcade Fire's "Neon Bible"
Rihanna's "Good Girl Gone Bad"
Timbaland's "Shock Value"
Annie Lennox's "Songs of Mass Destruction"

Deserved long-shots:
White Stripes' "Icky Thump"
Lily Allen's "Alright, Still"
LCD Soundsystem's "Sound of Silver"
M.I.A.'s "Kala"
Mavis Staples' "We'll Never Turn Back"

Quick thought: With critically adored albums from Springsteen and McCartney this year, Recording Academy voters will likely fear being too boomer-centric, opening the way for a new artist like Winehouse (we're relevant, really!). West deserves a nom here, and has been shut out from winning in the past. The most noticeable omission will likely be Radiohead's "In Rainbows," while others will argue for the Eagles' "Long Road Out of Eden," both released after the Sept. 30 eligibility period had passed.

Best New Artist

Best bets:
Amy Winehouse
Lily Allen
Taylor Swift
Daughtry
Feist

Possibles:
Chrisette Michelle
Robin Thicke
Colbie Caillat
Gym Class Heroes

Deserved long-shots/impossibilities:
Peter Bjorn & John
Battles
Besnard Lakes
Kid Sister

Quick thought: Daughtry will get nominated -- and win, giving the best new artist category away to two artists America has already voted upon via "American Idol" for two years running, as Carrie Underwood won last year. Some of the others aren't completely new -- Winehouse, Feist, etc. -- but Grammy plays fast and loose with what qualifies as a "new artist." If there's an upset to Daughtry, it's Winehouse, but watch out for fast-rising country singer Swift.

Record of the Year

Best bets:
Rihanna's "Umbrella," featuring Jay-Z
Feist's "1234"
Kanye West's "Stronger"
Lily Allen's "Smile"
Linkin Park's "What I've Done"

Possibilities:
Other songs from West or Linkin Park, for one
Beyonce's "Irreplaceable"
Miranda Lambert's "Famous In a Small Town"
Carrie Underwood's "Before He Cheats"
Alicia Keys' "No One"
The Eagles' "How Long"
Amy Winehouse's "Rehab"
Taylor Swift's "Tim McGraw"
Marooon 5's "It Won't Be Long Before Soon"
John Mayer's "Gravity"
Colbie Caillat's "Bubbly"

Deserved long-shots:
M.I.A.'s "Paper Planes"
LCD Soundsystem's "All My Friends"
!!!'s "Myth Takes"
The Shins' "Phantom Limb"
Arcade Fire's "Intervention"
Fall Out Boy's "The Take Over, The Break's Over"

Quick thought: A more detailed ramble on this category is available here. Main thing to note is I'm probably wrong on Allen's "Smile." Everyone I talk to says Winehouse's "Rehab" is a shoo-in, but I am being 100% swayed by personal feelings with that pick, which I am disclosing here. Missing from the above is Peter Bjorn & John's "Young Folks"; it shouldn't technically be eligible as it's a 2006 song, although it could possibly be lobbied to be included because it wasn't given a proper U.S. push until early 2007.

Some more thoughts below  ....

Best Female Pop Vocal Performance

Best bets:
Avril Lavigne's "Girlfriend"
Lily Allen's "Smile"
Pink's "Who Knew"
Fergie's "Big Girls Don't Cry"
Colby Caillat's "Bubbly"

Quick thought: Check the Record of the Year category above for some potential alternates, but this is Allen's best shot at winning for "Smile," and Lavigne will likely show up here, if she's not being pushed hard for the rock category. Fergie is a definite here, and swap in Beyoncé's "Irreplaceable," especially if it isn't recognized for Record of the Year.

Best Male Pop Vocal Performance

Best bets:
Paul McCartney's "Dance Tonight"
Justin Timberlake's "What Goes Around ... What Comes Around"
John Legend's "Another Again"
John Mayer's "Gravity"
Sean Kingston's "Beautiful Girls"

Quick thoughts: Multiple songs from the above artists were likely submitted, but it's probably safe to go ahead and book McCartney and Timberlake. Kingston had such a big hit that the tune is likely being pushed for pop, and Mayer -- well, Mayer always shows up somewhere. Timberlake was never absent from the charts, and one of his tunes will get recognized here.

Best Rock Album

Best bets:
Daughtry's "Daughtry"
Fall Out Boy's "Infinity on High"
White Stripes' "Icky Thump"
Bruce Springsteen's "Magic"
Linkin Park's "Minutes to Midnight"

Quick thoughts: I'd love to see My Chemical Romance's "The Black Parade" in here, as it was released too late in 2006, but it's going to be a tough field to squeeze into, especially since Springsteen, Daughtry and Linkin Park are almost sure things. If the Grammys really wanted to make a statement, you'd see Spoon, Modest Mouse, Arcade Fire and Peter Bjorn & John here, but those albums will likely be relegated to some sort of alternative ghetto.

Best Country Album

Best bets:
Miranda Lambert's "Crazy Ex-Girlfriend"
Taylor Swift's "Taylor Swift"
Vince Gill's "These Days"
Rascal Flatt's "Still Feels Good"
Reba McEntire's "Duets"

Quick thoughts: I'm probably stepping out a bit by including Swift here, but she should do well this week, so I've given her the benefit of the doubt. If anyone from the Recording Academy happened to watch a bit of the Country Music Awards, they likely caught up on Lambert's terrific record, and hopefully realized she kills it live, and should have her perform. In the end, I think McEntire will probably win. but you might see Keith Urban or Brad Paisley in here as well.

Best R&B Album

Best bets:
Chrisette Michelle's "I Am"
Queen Latifah's "Trav'lin' Light"
Macy Gray's "Big"
Jill Scott's "The Real Thing: Words & Sounds Vol. 3"
Angie Stone's  "The Art of Love & War"

Quick thoughts: Don't hold me entirely to Latifah, as that was a last-minute gut decision because voters are getting the hard-sell on her for R&B, even though the record is better suited elsewhere. But Gray's "Big" needs to be in here, and if anyone at Universal knows what they're doing, they'll push that record hard, as it was criminally overlooked. Newcomer Michelle should be a surprise, and voters love her. Prince's "Planet Earth" will be overlooked for shaking up the release model, and Keyshia Cole will be represented in contemporary R&B, where Akon likely will be as well.

Best Rap Album

Best bets:
Kanye West's "Graduation"
T.I.'s "T.I. Vs. T.I.P."
Common's "Finding Forever"
UGK's "Underground Kingz"
50 Cent's "Curtis"

Quick thoughts: Jay-Z's "Kingdom Come" won't be nominated, as his "American Gangster" was such a better album that it rendered the former irrelevant. West will win, and 50 Cent will get the courtesy nom, but Common and UGK are both worthy and likely artists here. Plies had a big record, and he could spoil, as could Talib Kweli. Expect Timbaland to be all over the singles/collab categories, but the record doesn't deserve a nomination.

Comments

[CreativeCommons]

These are my predictions...
RECORD OF THE YEAR
AMY WINEHOUSE Rehab
BEYONCE Irreplaceable
BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN Radio Nowhere
CARRIE UNDERWOOD Before He Cheats
RIHANNA FEATURING JAY-Z Umbrella

ALBUM OF THE YEAR
ARCADE FIRE Neon Bible
BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN Magic
FEIST The Reminder
KANYE WEST Graduation
TIMBALAND Timbaland Presents Shock Value

SONG OF THE YEAR
ALICIA KEYS No One
AMY WINEHOUSE Rehab
ARCADE FIRE Keep the Car Running
FEIST 1234
LILY ALLEN Smile

NEW ARTIST
AMY WINEHOUSE
DAUGHTRY
FEIST
LILY ALLEN
TAYLOR SWIFT

I predict that Springsteen will lead with 6 to 8 nominations (ROTY, AOTY, Rock Album, Rock Song, Rock Solo Performance, Rock Instrumental, Pop Collaboration [w/Pete Seeger], Pop Male Performance). Timberlake, Timbaland, Kanye and Winehouse will second with 5 or 6 each.
And I really REALLY hope that TOM WAITS, PJ HARVEY, THE HOLD STEADY, EL-P and even MY CHEMICAL ROMANCE receive some love... but I doubt it.

[Rob]

ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Arcade Fire - Neon Bible
Miranda Lambert - Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Bruce Springsteen - Magic
Amy Winehouse - Rehab
Kanye West - Graduation

BEST NEW ARTIST
Lily Allen
Daughtry
Peter, Bjorn and John
Taylor Swift
Amy Winehouse

I think (OK, more like hope) Miranda Lambert could surprise people.

And if Daughtry or Swift beat Amy Winehouse for Best New Artist, the Grammys should officially retire.

[Tristan]

If Daughtry wins for Best New Artist for a not critically well-recieved album over Amy Winehouse, whose album was raved about by critics, I will stop watching the Grammys. He is, in no way, shape, or form, of Carrie Underwood's caliber, and should therefore, not be placed in the same category when comparing American Idol winners/contestants.... And i'm sorry, but the AMA's don't mean sh**....

[Frankie R.]

Album of the Year:
Magic - B. Springsteen
Graduation - K. West
Back to Black - A. Winehouse
Memory Almost Full- P. McCartney
Good Girl Gone Bad - Rihanna

Yes, the veterans rule here...but Bruce will and should triumph here. West is too much of a sore loser and Graduation is not exactly his strongest work from his previous recordings. Amy & Rihanna are in for the young set..for Grammy people to show they're hip with the now...Upset can happen with a McCartney win.

Record of the Year
Umbrella
Stronger
What Goes Around, Comes Around
Beautiful Girl
Before He Cheats
Rehab
Would like to see Smile make the cut and just might. But I feel the annoying Beautiful Girl will likely be in because of heavy radio airplay and Timberlake's What Goes Around was also another song that wouldn't go away...Plus it gives Justin an excuse to show his mug on the show...like we really want to see him (gag!)

Best New Artist

Daughtry
Feist
Amy Winehouse
Lily Allen
Taylor Swift

A predictable bunch with Feist, Winehouse, and Allen being the strongest entries. They all may end up cancelling eachother out because they're all women and Daughtry being the only band and men nominated. A Sean Kingston nod may happen...but let's hope not.

Song of the Year

1234
Before He Cheats
Radio Nowhere
Stronger
Smile
What Goes Around, Comes Around
Umbrella

And I wish the Grammy people will learn how to determine Rock from Pop or Alternative (isn't it just pop or rock recordings that rarely or don't get any radio airplay...not exactly mainstream?). There are plenty of Rock recordings out by females this year: Tori Amos, Bjork, Patti Smith, Fergie (yup, her take on Heart's "Barracuda"), Ann Wilson, Melissa Etheridge, Annie Lennox, Kelly Clarkson (didn't she rock out this year?), Rihanna (Shut Up & Drive did have a Rock riff to it, que no?) Amy Winehouse, Lily Allen, Feist, Rickie Lee Jones, Patti Sciafala and other indie labeled female artist. But NARAS seem to pigeon-hole some of these artists in specific genres that they're kept from being nominated in other categories. Come on! if Donna Summer can win for the disco/Rock for "Hot Stuff" then why can't NARAS muster up nominees for Best Rock Vocal Performance Female with female artist who are considered just Alternative, R&B, Folk, or Country, etc?

[antonio Martinez]

Is there any posibilty that britney spears will get a nomination? I know Blackout came out after the release deadline but "Gimme More" didn't. I expect to see her nominated to Best Dance Recording.

[RBBrittain]

One huge problem, Todd: The official entry list has been leaked several places (including this site's own forums), and Kanye only submitted "Good Life" for ROTY--not "Stronger". If "Stronger" had been submitted, it would have been nommed; but for now, the only male artist with a definite ROTY nom is Jay-Z for his "featuring" credit on "Umbrella"--too big a hit (not to mention Rihanna's consistent flow of solid pop ear-candy) to ignore.

The ladies will clearly dominate ROTY this year, led by a considerable chance that both "Irreplaceable" and "Before He Cheats" will be nommed, with the latter also getting a SOTY nod (the former wasn't submitted). They largely helped each other--Beyoncé's pop-chart success helped Carrie's song get onto pop radio, while the reverse was true on AC radio. Their opposing but complementary twists on the cheatin' song will definitely help them.

Amy Winehouse will be nommed in all four top categories despite her recent troubles for one huge reason: Half of modern Hollywood is seemingly in rehab; much of the other half needs to be there. "Rehab" resounds so strongly with both groups that it's a lock. Expect Winehouse & Beyoncé (who will get truckloads of R&B noms in addition to ROTY) to be at or near the top in nom counts.

My big problem, though, is who gets the fifth slot? Springsteen (the only male soloist with even a slim chance)? Feist? Maroon 5? Daughtry? Or would two of them get in and squeeze out the weakest of my four "locks", Underwood?

For AOTY, Kanye & Winehouse are locks; beyond that, almost anything goes. McCartney will NOT be nommed; The Boss will suck away all his votes.

Beyond "Rehab" & "Before He Cheats" (a lock even--indeed, especially--if it fails for ROTY), it's hard to read SOTY. Some years, it's nearly in lockstep with ROTY; in others, it's not. Though Kanye shot himself in the foot here too (only "Can't Tell Me Nothing" is on the entry list), it could be a haven for "just missed" ROTY entries, including Alicia Keys & Lily Allen as well as the ones I named earlier.

I agree with Todd on BNA, with either Allen or Feist being the one who goes if one of the possibles gets in. However, Todd, the BNA rule is "loose" for a reason; it's the one rule that's caused less stinkers for BNA than any other over the years. When first tried in 1964, it was basically written for the Beatles; the year it came back (after the Milli Vanilli fiasco), Mariah Carey won. Considering they're now two of the top three in Billboard No. 1's (the third, Elvis, debuted before the Grammys started), that pretty much proves the BNA rule is sound, even if it seems to be a "pick your year" rule for Jennifer Hudson.

(BTW, Antonio, Britney isn't on the Best Dance Recording entry list either.)

[Rocco]

I'm betting the house on Taylor Swift. It's a tremendous album loaded with singles.

[daniel]

I might as well squeeze in my predictions before they are announced:

ALBUM OF THE YEAR
(I feel like the first three are locks, Paul's got a good chance, but as for the fifth spot, any one of the alternates I listed wouldn't surprise me)
1. Kanye West, Graduation
2. Bruce Springsteen, Magic
3. Amy Winehouse, Back to Black
4. Paul McCartney, Memory Almost Full
5. Maroon 5, It Won't Be Soon Before Long
alternates: Daughtry, Fall Out Boy, Linkin Park, Akon, Feist, Norah Jones, Bon Jovi, Gwen Stefani, Rascal Flatts, White Stripes, Arcade Fire, Timbaland, Michael Buble, Foo Fighters

RECORD OF THE YEAR
(I feel that "Rehab" and "Umbrella" are the safest bets, and the rest of the spots are really up for grabs. Here's what I think is most likely...)
1. Amy Winehouse, "Rehab"
2. Rihanna, "Umbrella"
3. Kanye West, "Stronger"
4. Beyonce, "Irreplaceable"
5. Maroon 5, "Makes Me Wonder"
alternates: "Before He Cheats," "Big Girls Don't Cry," "Bubbly," "The Sweet Escape," "What Goes Around...Comes Around," "It's Not Over," "Make a Memory," "1234," "No One," "Hey There Delilah"

SONG OF THE YEAR
(Bruce should have no problem getting a nod, and there's always a country song, and why not nominate Winehouse? I feel like this year, as usual, this category is pretty open)
1. "Radio Nowhere" (Bruce Springsteen)
2. "Before He Cheats" (Carrie Underwood)
3. "Rehab" (Amy Winehouse)
4. "Irreplaceable" (Beyonce)
5. "No One" (Alicia Keys)
alternates: "Bubbly," "Belief," "1234," "Smile," "How Long," "Big Girls Don't Cry," "Like a Star"

BEST NEW ARTIST
(I think Winehouse is the safest bet, as she is pretty much locked in the Album of the Year category...however, look at last year's frontrunners for Album of the Year and Best New Artist (Bob Dylan/KT Tunstall)...both were snubbed a nomination, so there's no guarantees. This category tends to favor female vocalists, which is why the majority of my predictions are female)
1. Amy Winehouse
2. Daughtry
3. Taylor Swift
4. Colbie Cailatt
5. Feist
alternates: Robin Thicke, Gym Class Heroes, Mika, Lily Allen, Peter Bjorn & John, Chrisette Michele

[cerobinson]

I would jump up and down if I saw two artists on the list: Elliott Yamin, whose "Wait for You" has had a lot of radio play, and Robin Thicke, who should be nominated for R&B male artist and contemporary R&B album for "The Evolution of Robin Thicke."