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Box office forecasting: the new national pastime

Whenever they break bread with Projector, studio executives and movie producers tend to offer a variation of the same comment: "Good column, dude, but I hate that darn box that goes with it. Why do you have to predict the grosses instead of just letting a movie do what it does and then reporting, you know, the real numbers."

The answer is that theatrical box office is not only a revenue indicator for an important local industry, Hollywood, but, like it or not, a national spectator sport. Putting topspin on the story makes our coverage more interesting. And to paraphrase Projector’s favorite sports radio talk show host, Colin Cowherd, we’re in the interesting business.

Since we keep score on the movie studios, we thought it was only fair to see how Projector and his competitors in the booming, participatory sport of box-office prognostication were performing. For the results from the 18-week summer season, see this week’s Movie Projector column.

--Josh Friedman

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Higher ticket prices behind summer box-office record

This weekend, Hollywood will officially celebrate a summer box-office record with $4.2 billion in U.S. and Canadian grosses as the early-May-through-labor-Day season ends.

Of course, that's a little bit like saying that Michael Phelps won the 400 meter relay because they shrunk the length of the pool. The fact is Hollywood can only boast -- and barely at that -- that it set a new summer box office "record" due to higher movie ticket prices, not because more people actually went to theaters.

Although box office revenue through Monday will top last summer’s $4.18 billion by 1% or less, the estimated 586.6 million total tickets sold will be down about 3.5% from last year and 10.2% from the modern-day peak in 2002, when the first “Spider-Man” came out.

“Yeah, it’s great to have the record but it’s built on higher ticket prices,” said Paul Dergarabedian, president of the Encino-based data tracker Media by Numbers.Knight

Movie attendance has been virtually flat over the last decade despite year-to-year fluctuations, as studios and theater owners compete with computer gaming and other industries for the hearts and wallets of consumers.

Even so, exhibitors have been able to hike ticket prices by an estimated 53% since 1998, to a national average of $7.16 (including matinees and other discounts) this year, according to the National Assn. of Theatre Owners.

Angelenos, of course, usually pay a much stiffer rate as L.A. has some of the highest ticket prices in the nation.

Warner Bros.’ “The Dark Knight” will end up accounting for about 12% of this summer’s revenue - a chunk Dergarabedian called “unprecedented.” The movie will top $500 million domestically this weekend and appears headed for at least $1 billion worldwide.

Premium ticket prices for movies like “The Dark Knight” at giant-screen Imax locations, and for 3-D movies like “Journey to the Center of the Earth” at digitally equipped theaters, also have helped boost the national average.

-- Josh Friedman

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ThinkFilm's Mark Urman jumps to Senator

In what shouldn't surprise anyone, Veteran film industry executive Mark Urman is leaving beleaguered Urman ThinkFilm to become president of newly formed independent distribution company Senator Entertainment U.S.

The move, announced Friday by Senator, follows months of complaints from filmmakers and outside vendors that ThinkFilm, headed by investor David Bergstein, had failed to pay its bills on time.

Senator, the German movie company whose U.S. arm was recently acquired by producer Marco Weber, will establish offices in Los Angeles and New York.

Urman said was he “thrilled” to be joining Weber, but the announcement made no mention of the current financial woes at ThinkFilm, best known for such art-house fare as the drama “Half Nelson,” the documentary “Spellbound” and Sidney’s Lumet’s “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead.”

Urman co-founded ThinkFilm in 2001, several years before its acquisition by Bergstein and his partners, and most recently served as its president. Prior to that, he was co-president of Lionsgate Releasing. He will work with Weber in establishing “all windows of distribution” for the Senator's slate, the company said, allowing Weber to concentrate on original productions.

Senator is prepping two productions: “Unthinkable,” a thriller starring Samuel L. Jackson, which starts shooting in September, and “Clocktower,” based on Capcom’s video game franchise, to begin shooting later this year. It recently bought U.S. rights to the crime drama “Public Enemy No. 1,” starring Vincent Cassel, Gerard Depardieu and Matthieu Amalric.

Calls to Bergstein and Urman were not returned.

In a recent interview, Bergstein said he was lining up new financing for ThinkFilm and paying off the company’s obligations.

-- Josh Friedman

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The 'Rings' team returns to write 'The Hobbit' with Guillermo del Toro

Gandalf1 The essential pieces of "The Hobbit" are falling into place.

The latest announcement confirms the rumor that Peter Jackson and his "Lord of the Rings" screenplay collaborators, Fran Walsh (Jackson's wife) and Phillipa Boyens, will be returning to write the new scripts with director Guillermo del Toro.

That's a lot of top-name talent huddled around the keyboard at once. Will their egos gel successfully enough to recapture the success of the "Rings" trilogy?

The new films are based on J.R.R. Tolkein's prequel to "Lord of the Rings" about Frodo's uncle Bilbo, played in the "Rings" films by Ian Holm, and his first encounter with the wizard Gandalf and his discovery of the all-powerful ring.

The book will be broken into two movies, filmed simultaneously, with the first to be released in 2011.

-- Patrick Kevin Day

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Harry Sloan signs new three-year deal at MGM

Ever since Harry Sloan was hired to run MGM studios in the fall of 2005, Hollywood has wondered whether the former lawyer and media entrepreneur would be able to transform the beleaguered studio into a viable competitor in the movie business.

So far that hasn’t happened at MGM nor at its smaller sister studio, United Artists, headed by Tom Cruise and his producing partner Paula Wagner. Rumors have continued to plague the hit-starved, debt-Sloan ridden MGM that its investors are restless and unhappy with the poor results and that Sloan’s job may be in jeopardy. Yet, despite all the nagging speculation, it was announced today that Sloan signed a new three-year deal to continue as chairman and chief executive of MGM.

In a statement, Jonathan Nelson, chief executive of MGM lead investor Providence Equity Partners, said “We appreciate Harry’s commitment to building value at MGM and believe he is executing the right strategy for the company." Providence was part of a consortium of investors, including Texas Pacific Group, Sony Corp. of America and cable giant Comcast Corp. that bought the then 80-year-old studio from billionaire Kirk Kerkorian for about $5 billion in 2005.

The investors appear to be banking on Sloan’s latest strategy to shift MGM from a mere distributor of movies made by outside production outfits, such as the Weinstein Co. -- a plan that has largely been disastrous -- to a financier and producer of its own films, including sequels and remakes culled from its vast library of titles that include “The Thomas Crown Affair” and “Fame.” To that end, Sloan recently hired former Universal Pictures movie executive Mary Parent, who has been aggressively buying up scripts, books and movie pitches in hopes of turning around MGM’s sagging fortunes. The problem is, Sloan has had trouble securing the hundreds of millions of dollars of new film financing that MGM desperately needs to fund Parent’s ambitious plans.

Earlier, Sloan succeeded in raising a $500 million revolving fund for United Artists after bringing in Cruise and Wagner to revitalize the label. But, UA, which releases its movies through MGM, is also struggling. The company’s debut picture, “Lions For Lambs,” a political drama directed by Robert Redford and starring Cruise and Meryl Streep, was an embarrassing bomb, grossing just $14.9 million domestically. The studio’s next movie, “Valkyrie,” also starring Cruise, was a troubled production whose original summer ‘08 release has been back pushed to next year.

Meanwhile, MGM has managed to maintain an awful track record at the box office with such recent losers as “Charlie Bartlett,” starring Robert Downey Jr. which grossed $3.9 million in the U.S., and the limited releases “Pathology,” which took in $108,662, and “Deal,”  which had ticket sales of $57,180. No, those are not typos.

To his credit, Sloan was instrumental in successfully leading sticky negotiations to move forward the production of two movies based on J.R.R. Tolkien’s classic novel “The Hobbit” in partnership with New Line Cinema, now under Warner Bros.; for landing an international theatrical and worldwide DVD distribution deal with 20th Century Fox for MGM movies; and for setting up a global TV sales force.

In partnership with Sony, MGM also has new James Bond and "Pink Panther" sequels due in theaters this year.

So, now that Sloan has just bought himself more time to prove himself, the pressure is on to accomplish what has so far eluded him: making MGM and UA bona fide players in Hollywood. Sloan has never run a major studio before, though he had success in the past investing and leading three media companies, SBS Broadcasting, Lionsgate Entertainment Corp. and New World Entertainment.

Come on Harry, show us your stuff.

-- Claudia Eller

Photo: Harry Sloan

Credit: Associated Press

Questions? Comments? Email: claudia.eller@latimes.com

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Jack White, Alicia Keys to 'Bond' for 'Quantum of Solace'

Alicia_keys_bond

The next James Bond film has its theme song. Jack White and Alicia Keys have tag-teamed to record "Another Way to Die" for the November release "Quantum of Solace," the second Bond flick to feature Daniel Craig in the lead role.

It had been speculated for a few weeks that Keys would be tapped to the perform the song, and now she has a drummer. White will provide the rhythm for the cut and serve as its writer-producer, confirmed in a release today from Columbia Pictures. "Another Way to Die" is hyped as the first duet for a Bond film.

White and Keys are the latest Americans to tackle a main Bond song, following Chris Cornell, who did "You Know My Name" for "Casino Royale" in 2006. And like the latter, "Another Way to Die" will be one of the rare Bond theme songs to not actually feature the name of the movie in the title.

The announcement brings to end months of speculation as to who would sing the latest Bond theme. Rumors earlier this year had Amy Winehouse doing the honors, but her producer-collaborator Mark Ronson declared her "not ready." Newcomer Leona Lewis had also been rumored to be in the running.

The soundtrack to "Quantum of Solace" will be released by J Records, Keys' record label, on Oct. 28.

-- Todd Martens

Photo: Columbia Pictures

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Scene Stealer: 'The Foot Fist Way's' taekwondo chop

Footfistway1

Director and former taekwondo student Jody Hill made "The Foot Fist Way" on a shoestring budget, so he didn't have money to hire professional stuntmen. Turns out taekwondo instructor Sean Baxter, whose school in Concord, N.C., served as the film's primary location, stepped in at the last minute, saving the production not only cash but potential grief as well. During the climactic face-off between Fred Simmons (Danny McBride) and Chuck "The Truck" (Ben Best), the two were required to break multiple wood boards in rapid sequence. With no stuntmen, the plan called for McBride and Best to hide lead pipes in their hands and break the boards using the little taekwondo training they had. "The physics behind that don't work real well," Baxter said. Rather than wind up with two actors with broken hands, the boards were pre-cut and glued together. For close-ups, Baxter stood in for McBride and Hill for Best, and they broke the boards for real. Careful observation shows the actors breaking the boards with wrapped hands, while the real martial artists go bare-knuckled.

-- Patrick Kevin Day

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Sydney Pollack: Scattered pictures of the smiles you left behind

With news of the passing of Sydney Pollack, it seems only right to pause for a moment to take in Pollack's Robert Redford and Barbra Streisand classic "The Way We Were." If you don't have the DVD at home (For shame, hard-hearted reader!) here's a clip:


One of the best "Sex and the City" episodes pays tribute to Pollack's film by replacing Katie and Hubble with Carrie and Big:


-- Sheigh Crabtree

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'The Rocker': The Poster

Rainn Wilson of "The Office" gets to star in his very own comedy vehicle, opening this summer (Aug. 1). The film has quite the pedigree -- "The Full Monty" director Peter Cattaneo is behind the camera. Will Cattaneo survive the Hollywood studio summer blockbuster treatment? Wilson seems like a smart guy, so here's hoping his taste in material stays strong.

They get extra points already for finding a kid who could pass for a young Wilson. It couldn't have been an easy task.

Here's the teaser poster:

Rocker1

--Patrick Kevin Day

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'Speed Racer': PETA alleges chimpanzee abuse on set

PETA Germany is up in arms today, over the alleged mistreatment of a chimpanzee on the set of the Warner Bros. film, "Speed Racer."  According to a report from PETA, a representative for the American Humane Association (AHA) witnessed the abuse firsthand. The AHA states that a chimp bit one of the actors, leading animal trainer Greg Lille to, "in an uncontrolled impulse, hit" one of the other chimpanzees. German PETA is filing charges against the trainer.

"No matter where great apes and other animals are used as 'actors,'  you'll find abuse," said PETA Director Debbie Leahy.  "We're urging anyone involved in any facet of film production to contact PETA immediately if they witness or suspect animal abuse."

-- Stephanie Lysaght

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About the Blogger
Entertainment News Bloggers

Sheigh Crabtree is a Los Angeles Times staff writer who covers the entertainment industry;

Patrick Kevin Day is a Los Angeles Times staff writer who writes the weekly Scene Stealer column;

John Horn is a Los Angeles Times staff writer who covers the entertainment industry;

Todd Martens is a Los Angeles Times staff writer who covers the music industry and writes the Extended Play blog;

Kenneth Turan is a Los Angeles Times film critic.


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