Some of the magic comes off the Magic Kingdom
Walt Disney Co. shares tumbled nearly 6% to close at $26.57 a share today after influential media analyst Jessica Reif Cohen of Merrill Lynch downgraded the media company's stock because of concerns about the souring economy.
Disney had been trading at a 20%-to-60% premium to its entertainment industry peers, in part because of what Reif Cohen described as "the highest-quality name" in Hollywood -- something CEO Bob Iger touts as the "Disney difference." Indeed, Reif Cohen expects Disney to continue to defy economic gravity into its fiscal fourth quarter, reporting estimated operating income growth of 7% over the previous year and a 15% rise in net income per share.
"However, this could be the calm before the storm," she warns.
Disney has been the star performer of the large entertainment-company stocks, despite its reliance on revenue from advertising, theme parks and consumer products. That's a credit to the strong management team and the general perception of the brand and its products, Reif Cohen says.
However, she expects operating income to flatten in fiscal 2009, as unemployment rises and consumer confidence erodes. That is likely to hit theme park attendance. (Disney Channel star Miley Cyrus celebrated her 16th birthday at Disneyland in Anaheim on Sunday to promote the new "Celebration Vacation" campaign that begins in January, in which Disney will offer free admission to park attendees on their birthday.)
"Rising unemployment will be the straw that breaks the camel's back," Reif Cohen writes. "We are hard pressed to believe that attendance will not fall in (fiscal) 2009 -- people who don't have jobs simply do not go to Disney World."
Together with advertising and consumer products, roughly 60% of Disney's revenue is susceptible to an economic downturn, Reif Cohen says. Disney's earnings could even fall next fiscal year, despite the strength of the studio's slate over the next two years.
"We think there is significant risk to the stock in the coming months," Reif Cohen concludes.
-- Dawn C. Chmielewski
Photo: "Hannah Montana" star Miley Cyrus is joined by Mickey Mouse as more than 5,000 fans sing "Happy Birthday" to her Sunday, during Cyrus' "Sweet 16" birthday party. Scott Brinegar / Disneyland
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More mainstream movies for Netflix online
Netflix Inc. moved one step closer to delivering on the promise its name implies: providing movies via the Internet.
The Los Gatos company struck a deal with premium movie service Starz Entertainment that will allow Netflix subscribers to watch such mainstream movies as "Spider-Man 3," "Ratatouille, "No Country for Old Men" and "Superbad" on demand online.
The agreement represents a milestone for Netflix, whose online film offerings have, until this point, been limited to what would be charitably described as "niche" offerings, heavy on sophomoric humor ("National Lampoon's Pledge This!"), horror ("BloodRayne II: Deliverance") and art-house fare ("My Summer of Love").
That's because the premium cable services -- HBO, Showtime and Starz -- pay big money to lock the rights to distribute Hollywood movies, once they've left theaters and been released on DVD. These contracts keep recent releases off fledgling Internet movie services once they enter this exclusivity period, known as the pay-TV window.
"We have 100,00 movies on DVD and 12,000 movies to stream," said Netflix Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos, noting the disparity between the company's physical and digital catalogs. "The biggest gap is television exclusivity."
The Starz agreement helps to narrow that gap. Netflix subscribers who have unlimited plans, which start at $8.99 a month, gain access to the 2,500 movies and other video offerings from Starz as part of the package.
"This solves a huge problem for Netflix, because so much of the criticism about the instant-watch feature is it's just cruddy content," said Kurt Scherf, vice president and principal analyst for researcher Parks Associates.
The streamed Hollywood offerings, however, are limited to two major studios: Walt Disney Studios and Sony Pictures. Netflix's online service won't have access to movies from Warner Bros., Fox, Paramount or Universal because they have deals with other cable services.
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It's raining catty and dogs at Disney movie showcase
Amid all the cinematic sizzle at Disney's movie showcase today at Hollywood's Kodak Theater, studio chief Dick Cook took the opportunity to grill some former colleagues.
"I want to introduce you to two old dogs," Cook deadpanned. "No, I'm not talking about Bob and Harvey Weinstein," he said in introducing clips from Disney's Thanksgiving release, "Old Dogs," starring Robin Williams and John Travolta.
Cook's reference to the Miramax Films co-founding brothers, who had a well-publicized falling-out with their corporate parent, Disney, was not lost on the insider crowd of about 2,000 industry executives, theater owners and journalists who are attending the all-day event to see the new lineup, which was heavy on the dog theme.
The diminutive live-action star of Disney's Oct. 3 release, "Beverly Hills Chihuahua," made a rare and unscripted appearance onstage, provoking a Taco Bell quip from Cook. Stealing the show, however, was Disney's top dog, "Bolt," the studio's first animation project entirely revamped and overseen by Pixar Animation Studio's power duo, John Lasseter and Ed Catmull.
Disney showed the film, featuring the voice talents of Miley Cyrus and John Travolta, for the first time in its entirety. The crowd, donning 3-D glasses, gave the movie a warm reception.
Speaking of 3-D -- the technology that some in Hollywood think will lure people away from their big-screen TVs and back into theaters -- Cook made reference to several filmmakers who were at its forefront, including James Cameron and Bob Zemekis. He took a swat at his former boss, Jeffrey Katzenberg, who now runs Disney Animation rival DreamWorks Animation.
"These industry leaders, AND Jeffrey Katzenberg," said Cook, have been pioneers in the field, and he remarked that he read somewhere that Katzenberg was planning to release his first 3-D movie sometime soon.
So far, Cook's presentation has been heavy on sizzle and light on the steak. The only news nuggets are that between now and the summer of 2011, when Disney releases "Cars 2," the studio will try to keep the popular Pixar characters in front of a new generation of budding gear-heads by releasing a series of animated shorts called -- wait for it -- Cars Toon.
--Claudia Eller and Dawn C. Chmielewski
Photo: Cook (Guatam Singh/AP); chihuahuas (Alberto E. Rodriguez/Getty Images)
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Disney offers park attendees free tickets on their birthdays

Amid the country's gathering financial woes, the Walt Disney Co. today announced a new promotion to spur domestic theme park attendance next year: a freebie ticket to parkgoers on their birthdays.
Jay Rasulo, chairman of the Walt Disney Parks and Resorts, held an event in New York to announce that visitors will receive one free ticket to Walt Disney World or Disneyland on their birthday in 2009 (be sure to bring a valid ID and proof of date of birth).
The promotion, which begins in January, is designed to capitalize on a trend travel researcher Ypartnership dubbed the "celebration vacation." In a national survey of 4,600 adults who traveled in the past year, nearly three-quarters said they take trips to commemorate life's milestones, such as a wedding or anniversary, graduation, quinceañeras, a bar or bat mitzvah or retirement.
These travelers say they tend to spend more on these vacations, stay longer and include more people in their plans, said Ypartnership Chief Executive Peter C. Yesawich, who said the research was not funded by Disney.
Disney was quick to seize on the trend and turn it into an occasion to visit the parks.
"It really wasn't motivated by economic trends," Rasulo said, noting that the campaign has been nearly two years in development. "Of course, the underlying strategy behind everything we do is to have people come visit us."
The business impetus for the campaign is considerably more serious than the balloons and monogrammed mouse ears might suggest.
Disney reported lower attendance at Disney World for its June quarter, compared with last year, in part because the Easter holiday fell earlier than is typical this year. Spending at Disneyland was also off 2%. Chief Financial Officer Tom Staggs sought to assure investors in July that the domestic resorts are resisting the downward tug of the economy, noting that fall bookings were "virtually on par" with last year and that the December quarter was "modestly ahead."
Nonetheless, Bernstein Research analyst Michael Nathanson forecasts a 2% decline in park attendance in 2009, with a 7% drop in operating income that will not be offset by increased pricing. "So far, parks have been very resilient," he said, but Disney World is still vulnerable to a reduction in the number of flights to Orlando.
Hotel industry analyst PKF Hospitality Research predicts the nation's hotels will face a drop in decline that's worse than the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, tied to a reduction in the number of domestic flights. The Los Angeles consulting group said occupancy rates in Anaheim are off 3.8% this year, compared with 2007.
Park promotions, such as the "Year of a Million Dreams" (which lasted 18 months) and the 50th anniversary celebration commemorating the opening of Disneyland, have been effective at boosting attendance -- even when Disney has no major new attractions to lure visitors, said Christian Aaen, a principal at Economics Research Associates, an entertainment and tourism consultant.
"Without any kind of major new market attraction," Aaen said, "It's a way to create enthusiasm in the market."
-- Dawn C. Chmielewski
Photo: Don Kelsen / Los Angeles Times
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Disney looks at possible acquisitions in U.K.
Walt Disney Co. Chief Executive Bob Iger told the London media today that he is considering possible acquisitions in the U.K. as the company looks to global markets for expansion, according to published reports.
Iger declined to comment on whether the company is interested in the U.K.'s largest commercial broadcaster, ITV, parrying the question by telling Bloomberg, "Hasn't everyone looked at ITV?" The company, home of the long-running soap opera "Coronation Street," is periodically the topic of takeover rumors.
Speculation that the London-based company is vulnerable to a takeover has been fueled by the company's precipitous 45% stock decline this year. ITV rejected a 2006 offer for a controlling interest in the firm.
Disney has shown heightened interest in the market, acquiring the parenting Web site raisingkids.co.uk in August to bolster its portal in the U.K. Iger told Bloomberg the company has a "very strong balance sheet," and that U.K. is one of the "primary markets" in which Disney sees opportunities.
Spokespeople for Disney confirmed the published reports.
--Dawn C. Chmielewski
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'Pirates' team sails to Paramount
Hollywood’s infamous “Pirates” (of the Caribbean that is) — director Gore Verbinski and actor Johnny Depp — are teaming up to make their first animated movie. But, surprisingly, they’re not making the big-budget film “Rango” at Disney, where their three “Pirates of the Caribbean” blockbusters generated nearly $2.7 billion in worldwide ticket sales.
Instead, the comedy about a chameleon (voiced by Depp) who gets thrown out of his aquarium in the desert and embarks on a journey of self-discovery will be bankrolled, marketed and distributed by Paramount Pictures. The Viacom Inc.-owned studio, which once would have seemed like an unlikely home for such an ambitious project, now has a solid track record marketing and distributing big animated pictures through its deal with DreamWorks Animation. DreamWorks Animation (not to be confused with the live-action DreamWorks, which has had a rocky relationship with Paramount) produced such hits as “Shrek the Third” and “Kung Fu Panda.”
“Rango” -- expected to cost about $150 million -- is planned for release in March 2011.
So, why is Paramount making "Rango" and not Disney, where Verbinski and Depp have had so much success? A person close to the matter said that Verbinski, who has been developing the project for years, didn’t even pitch it to Disney when the project was shopped recently because he knew the studio would never give him the level of control and ownership he sought. Disney prefers to exploit its own titles and those under its Pixar label across all its businesses -- television, video, theme parks, merchandise -- and doesn't like to share too much of the profit on its big animated movies.
But at Paramount, which owns all worldwide rights to "Rango," Verbinski and Depp will get a share of the profit.
Written by Oscar-nominated screenwriter John Logan, whose credits include "Gladiator” and “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street,” “Rango” will be Verbinski’s first venture into animation. He will be enlisting some of the visual effects techniques he developed with George Lucas’ Industrial Light and Magic to create the Davy Jones character in the “Pirates” pictures.
-- Claudia Eller
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Disney Online pulls in viewers
Disney Online's digital makeover is paying off, 18 months after a major strategic shift away from an information-driven site to one that emphasizes video and entertainment.
The entertainment giant's flagship website set a record in July for total video streams. Disney.com logged 186.7 million streams for the m
onth -- more than double the 75.5 million NBC touted for the Beijing Olympics.
Disney employed the powerful lure of the Disney Channel's tween acts to bring in the clicks. The site featured premieres of Miley Cyrus' "7 Things" music video and the "Burning Up" video from musical heartthrobs the Jonas Brothers. Disney.com also offered an exclusive online glimpse of the forthcoming film, "High School Musical 3: Senior Year."
As a result, comScore Media Metrix ranked Disney Online as the sixth most popular online video site, behind Viacom Digital, but ahead of such established online video destinations as Veoh, Video Egg and Break Media.
In a sense, Disney's online destination has come full circle, returning to the entertainment focus of a decade ago, when neither Internet speeds nor computers were up to the task.
Dawn C. Chmielewski is an entertainment writer who covers Walt Disney Co.
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Pixar's John Lasseter unveils 'Tinker Bell,' costly star of new Disney Fairies initiative
Cue the pixie dust.
Walt Disney Animation is taking direct aim at little girls with a business initiative called Disney Fairies whose long-awaited star is finally ready for her small screen debut.
John Lasseter, chief creative officer of Walt Disney and Pixar Animation Studios, announced the much delayed "Tinker Bell" DVD on Friday, the first original title in a series of company-wide animation initiatives meant to capitalize on the fairy and princess craze among little girls.
"Tinker Bell," the first character to take wing from the Disney Fairy canon, is scheduled for direct-to-DVD release in late October, after being pushed back a year due to reported production complications. In this particular 2008 incarnation, Tink actually has a voice (actress Mae Whitman, although at one point Disney announced that Brittany Murphy would play Tink), and a lovely pair of iridescent wings:
Word has it that Tinker Bell's wings cost a pretty penny, too. At least $50 million, in addition to a key executive's job, two dozen versions of the script and a dozen different directors, according to Variety.
The female character's success should be an interesting test for Lasseter, whose Pixar animated films over the past decade have largely catered to boys. Consider the upcoming robot tale "Wall-E" (June 27), and earlier blockbusters "Cars," "Bugs," and "Monsters, Inc." Somehow Pixar and parent company Disney have managed to largely overlook a marketplace filled with little girls fixated on princesses and fairies.
Disney Animation hasn't introduced any new animated girl-centric titles and characters -- such as "The Little Mermaid" (1989), Princess Jasmine in "Aladdin" (1992), "Pocahontas" (1995) and "Mulan" (1998) -- in close to a decade. (Even "Enchanted," which was live action, was released just last year.)
But Disney's animated princess hiatus is about to change, both with the so-called Disney Fairies initiative and when Disney Feature Animation releases theatrically "The Princess and the Frog" (Christmas 2009) and "Rapunzel" (Christmas 2010).
Until then, it will be hard for parents to avoid the Disney Fairies juggernaut, which the Walt Disney Company promises to incorporate across its many divisions, including Disney Consumer Products, Disney Publishing, Disney Interactive Studios, Disney on Ice, Disney Parks and Resorts, and Disney Online.
And with that, Disney's finally going full-bore with faith, trust and pixie dust.
-- Sheigh Crabtree
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