Movie projector: 'Blind Side' set to win slow post-Thanksgiving weekend

It looks as though moviegoers will still be digesting the record-breaking Thanksgiving weekend at the box office.

The weekend following the holiday weekend has traditionally been a slow one in movie theaters, and that trend will likely continue this year, as four new movies opening nationwide tomorrow will struggle to sell more than $10 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada, according to people who have seen pre-release polling. The opening pictures are the action thriller "Armored," drama "Brothers," family comedy "Everybody's Fine" and horror comedy "Transylmania."

Alcon Entertainment's "The Blind Side," distributed by Warner Bros., is almost certain to hit No. 1 for the first time. After opening far below "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" two weekends ago, its ticket sales increased over the Thanksgiving holiday while the teen vampire movie dropped 70%. Yesterday, "Blind Side" beat "New Moon" at the box office for the first time, and it's expected to decline so little this weekend that it will take the top spot. (For more on the success of "The Blind Side," see this story from Tuesday's Times.)

As of Wednesday, "The Blind Side" has grossed $106.7 million domestically. "New Moon" has collected $237.8 million.

Warner is adding 186 theaters for "The Blind Side" in response to demand, making a drop of 25% or 30% very doable for the film. That would put it at between $28 million and $30 million for the weekend.

Meanwhile, "New Moon" will likely follow the pattern of the first "Twilight," dropping about 50% this weekend, which would put it at just over $20 million for the three days.

Among the new releases, "Brothers" has the best shot at performing decently and coming in with a gross of around $10 million. The movie was financed by Relativity Media at a cost of $26 million and is being distributed by Lionsgate. The indie studio has a two-sided marketing campaign, selling it as a thriller in some spots and a highbrow drama in others. Regardless of the emphasis, however, the campaign has focused more on the film's stars Tobey Maguire, Jake Gyllenhaal and Natalie Portman than its plot involving veterans returning from the Iraq war. Many films focused on the controversial conflict in the last few years, such as "Stop-Loss" and "In the Valley of Elah," have performed poorly at the box office.

Sony Pictures' "Armored," starring Matt Dillon and Laurence Fishburne, will likely gross close to $8 million. The latest action thriller from the studio's Screen Gems genre label cost about $20 million to produce, meaning it could face a tough road to profitability.

"Everybody's Fine" will be the last release from Miramax Films before most business operations for the troubled highbrow label are folded into its parent company, Walt Disney Studios. The picture cost Miramax and co-financier Radar Pictures a little more than $20 million to produce and will likely open to only about $5 million despite big-name stars including Robert DeNiro and Drew Barrymore.

The independent movie "Transylmania," which is being self-released by its producers, is expected to barely register at the box office, with an expected debut of between $1 million and $3 million.

--Ben Fritz

Top photo: Tobey Maguire and Natalie Portman in "Brothers." Credit: Lorey Sebastian/Lionsgate.

Bottom photo: Kate Beckinsale and Robert DeNiro in "Everybody's Fine." Credit: Abbot Genser/Miramax Films.

Thanksgiving box office record blown away despite absence of new hits

There were no major new hits at the box office this weekend, but that was of little concern to Hollywood as total ticket sales blew away the previous record.

Domestic box-office receipts from Wednesday through Sunday totaled an estimated $275 million, beating the previous mark set in 2000 by 12%, according to Hollywood.com. Although no new pictures drew big audiences, a number of existing ones continued to generate big ticket sales, while the sheer diversity of solidly performing pictures drew every segment of the populace.

"The Twilight Saga: New Moon" led the record-breaking weekend, landing at No. 1 for the second weekend in a row despite plummeting 70% from its massive debut. The drop was even bigger than that of the original "Twilight" on the same weekend last year, 62%. Given the sequel's much bigger start, however, there's hardly anything for Summit Entertainment to complain about. The movie, which cost just under $50 million to make, including Canadian tax credits, is on its way to grossing more than $600 million worldwide, even if its box-office run ends quickly, as looks likely.

The No. 2 movie was also the same as last weekend's but shockingly close to no. 1. "The Blind Side" actually increased its ticket-sales revenue by 18%, coming in at a studio-estimated $40.1 million for the three-day weekend, just a bit below the $42.5 million collected by "New Moon." The inspirational drama starring Sandra Bullock appears to be expanding beyond its initial audience of adult women thanks to strong word-of-mouth.

It is on track to gross more than $200 million domestically, making it a major hit for Alcon Entertainment, which financed the picture for $35 million, as well as Warner Bros, which gets a distribution fee.

None of the weekend's new movies in wide release were hits, although they weren't total disasters. Disney's "Old Dogs" and Fox's "The Fantastic Mr. Fox" both had relatively weak starts that leave their respective studios hoping declines will be modest and that they will play through the holidays.

"Ninja Assassin," distributed by Warner Bros. for financiers Dark Castle Entertainment and Legendary Pictures, did better given its target audience of young males and relatively modest budget of less than $50 million.

Several movies already in the market held on well, most notably Disney's "A Christmas Carol," which saw ticket sales increase by 30% from last weekend.

Disney's new animated feature "The Princess and the Frog" sold out nearly all its screenings at two theaters in Los Angeles and New York while "The Road," distributed by the Weinstein Co. for 2929 Entertainment, got off to a pretty good start at 111 locations.

Overseas, "New Moon" continues to rule, collecting $85.1 million. Sony's "2012" collected a very healthy $61.6 million. "A Christmas Carol" continues to perform decently, bringing in $20.4 million. "Ninja Assassin" opened to $6 million in 10 markets, led by star Rain's home country of South Korea, where it collected a solid $3.2 million.

Here are the top 10 movies at the domestic box office and their three- and five-day grosses, according to studio estimates and Hollywood.com:

First look: 'New Moon' almost eclipsed by 'Blind Side' over Thanksgiving

"The Twilight Saga: New Moon" is fading fast after its massive debut, while significantly more people are seeing "The Blind Side" compared with its box-office performance last weekend.

Tickets sales in the U.S. and Canada for Summit Entertainment's $50-million teen vampire drama plummeted 70% over the three-day weekend compared with a week ago, to a studio-estimated $42.5 million, demonstrating that interest among avid fans was heavily front-loaded and its box-office life is sure to be very short. Receipts for the first "Twilight" picture dropped 62.2% on the same weekend last year. The larger decline this year indicates that although interest in the sequel has grown significantly from the original, a not insignificant percentage of the opening weekend growth for the sequel came from people who saw "Twilight" later in its run last year but came out sooner for "New Moon."

The five-day domestic gross over the full holiday weekend for "New Moon" was $66 million, and its total is now $230.7 million. At the same point last year, total box office for "Twilight" was $119.7 million.

While "New Moon" had the largest second-weekend drop of any movie this year, "The Blind Side" went the opposite way. Its ticket sales rose 18%, the fourth-largest such increase ever for a movie playing at more than 3,000 theaters. Driven by extraordinary word of mouth after audiences gave the inspirational football drama starring Sandra Bullock an average grade of A-plus last weekend, "Blind Side" took in $40.1 million over the three-day weekend and $57.5 million for five days, putting it surprisingly close to "New Moon." The total gross for the movie, which was financed by Alcon Entertainment and distributed by Warner Bros., is $100.3 million.

None of the weekend's three new movies in wide release proved particularly strong. The comedy "Old Dogs" was another disappointment in a tough year for Walt Disney Studios at the box office, collecting just $16.8 million for the weekend and $24.1 million over five days. The very similar "Wild Hogs," which also starred John Travolta and was directed by Walt Becker, opened to $39.7 million in March 2007 without the benefit of most people being out of work and school on its first Friday.

The martial arts flick "Ninja Assassin," financed by Dark Castle Entertainment and Legendary Pictures and distributed by Warner Bros., took in $13.1 million for the weekend and $21 million over five days, a decent start given its cost of just under $50 million. It's expected to do very well overseas, particularly in Asia given the popularity of its star, South Korea's Rain.

The stop-motion animated movie "Fantastic Mr. Fox," from 20th Century Fox, grossed a very weak $7 million for the weekend and $9.5 million since Wednesday. Including its solid results at four theaters the previous two weekends, the quirky adaptation of the Roald Dahl book directed by Wes Anderson has grossed $10.1 million. It cost about $35 million to produce.

Meanwhile, Disney's hopes that "A Christmas Carol," which cost nearly $200 million to make, would play strong through the holidays after its weak start continued to come true. Ticket sales for the digital 3-D picture rose 30% over the weekend, even higher than the 24% rise for "The Polar Express" in 2004, another 3-D holiday movie directed by Robert Zemeckis, whose performance the studio has been hoping to follow.

In limited release, Disney's "The Princess and the Frog" opened to a massive $712,000 in just two theaters, a mix of high demand and inflated ticket prices for an experience that included several hours of activities beyond watching the new hand-drawn animated flick. Over five days it took in $1.1 million.

Weinstein Co. opened "The Road," financed by 2929 Entertainment for $25 million, to a so-so $1.5 million from 111 theaters. The five-day total is $2 million.

-- Ben Fritz

Photo: Jae Head, left, Quinton Aaron and Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side." Credit: Ralph Nelson / Warner Bros.

Movie projector: 'New Moon' to dominate again as three new movies look soft

"New Moon" will fade over the long Thanksgiving weekend, but it still has a virtual lock on No. 1 at the box office.

While three movies -- "Old Dogs," "Ninja Assassin," and "The Fantastic Mr. Fox" -- are opening or expanding nationwide on today, the biggest story will be how much "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" declines from its massive $142.8 million domestic opening. All signs point to a drop about equal to that of the original "Twilight" on Thanksgiving weekend last year: 62%. Ticket sales for the sequel have followed roughly the same trend as its predecessor each day since opening Friday.

An equivalent decline over the holiday would give "New Moon" a domestic gross of about $85 million from Wednesday through Sunday and $55 million for the three-day weekend. By the end of the week, its domestic total could easily be $250 million.

Overseas, where the "Twilight" sequel opens in 33 new territories this week on top of its existing 24, the total could easily be the same. So far its international gross is $132 million.

After "New Moon" blew away expectations last weekend, however, few in Hollywood feel comfortable making predictions on how it will perform going forward. It's quite possible that the movie could beat industry predictions once again.

Last weekend's No. 2 picture, meanwhile, has a good shot at holding on to that position as well. Alcon Entertainment's "The Blind Side" opened to a very strong $34.1 million and earned a perfect A+ score from audiences, indicating that its second weekend decline will be mild.

The highest-profile movie opening today may be the one in the most trouble. Walt Disney Studios' comedy "Old Dogs" is on track to significantly underperform the very similar "Wild Hogs." While the latter picture, which also starred John Travolta and was directed by Walt Becker, opened to $39.7 million in March 2007, the new movie will likely sell less than $30 million worth of tickets over the five-day holiday weekend, according to people who have seen pre-release polling.

"Old Dogs" appears to be generating some interest among adults over 30, but it's unclear whether families -- needed to boost the box office -- will attend.

"Ninja Assassin" is targeting young men and is tracking decently with that audience. Dark Castle Entertainment and Legendary Pictures produced the action movie, which stars the Korean action star Rain and will be distributed by Warner Bros., for a little less than $50 million. It's on track to gross about $20 million over five days.

20th Century Fox is opening its well-reviewed stop-motion animated flick "Fantastic Mr. Fox" around the country after it racked up a healthy $562,000 over the last two weeks in four theaters. While the studio is trying to market the film to a family audience -- one ad touted it as "from the studio that brought you 'Ice Age,' " although the two pictures are very different in style -- it doesn't appear to be catching on and may struggle to gross more than $10 million from Wednesday through Sunday. "Mr Fox," which cost about $35 million to produce and is based on the children's book by Roald Dahl, appears to be generating more interest from young male fans of director Wes Anderson than parents of young kids.

In the U.K., home country of Dahl where the movie opened Oct. 23, it has already collected a solid $13.7 million.

In limited release this weekend, The Weinstein Co. opens the post-apocalyptic drama "The Road," based on the Cormac McCarthy novel, in 113 theaters in the U.S. and Canada. 2929 Productions financed the film for about $25 million, but Weinstein Co. is distributing it and footing the marketing costs.

Disney's "The Princess and the Frog," the studio's first hand-drawn animated feature in five years, debuts at two theaters in Los Angeles and New York City today. Because ticket prices will be exceptionally high as part of an experience including games and other activities, per theater grosses will undoubtedly be large.

--Ben Fritz

Top photo: Ella Bleu Travolta, John Travolta and Conner Rayburn in "Old Dogs." Credit: Ron Phillips / Disney.

Bottom photo: Rain in "Ninja Assassin." Credit: Juliana Malucelli / Warner Bros. Pictures.

Make that 'New Moon' worldwide opening $274.9 million ... and counting

Summit Entertainment's estimates of how many filmgoers outside North America saw "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" was low. Way low.

As more exact information continues to roll in from overseas markets, the independent studio updated its estimate of ticket sales in the 24 countries where its blockbuster vampire movie played over the weekend.

Its new total, $132.1 million, is a full $14 million, or 12%, higher than its estimate Sunday morning of $118.1 million. Combined with the newly updated domestic total of $142.8 million, $2.1 million higher than Summit's Sunday morning estimate, it now turns out that "New Moon" opened to $274.9 million, the sixth highest worldwide bow of all time.

Because Summit doesn't have its own foreign distribution operation, it works with a variety of distributors in different countries and thus international grosses are coming in much slower than at major studios. Further updates are yet to come, just in case anyone is worried that "New Moon" didn't make enough money this weekend.

--Ben Fritz

Expect huge box office opening for 'The Princess and the Frog,' thanks to high ticket prices [updated]

"The Princess and the Frog," Disney's first hand-drawn animated feature in five years, isn't only a throwback in style.

When it opens Wednesday, it also will be the first Disney animated film since 2003's "Brother Bear" to start in limited release in New York and Los Angeles. Like that movie and many other of its traditional cartoons, including "The Lion King" and "Hercules," the studio is pairing the two initial runs of "Princess" with an "experience" that includes games, actresses dressed as Disney princesses, props, costumes and other activities that give kids fun time beyond the film. [Updated 3:05 p.m.: An earlier version of this post incorrectly said that "Brother Bear" was Disney's last hand-drawn animated film. It was 2004's "Home on the Range."]

All those extras mean ticket prices will be substantially higher than for a normal picture. Disney is charging $30 for general admission tickets, $50 for the best seats and $20 per person for groups at the Ziegfeld Theatre in New York City and on the studio lot in Burbank. (Disney's El Capitan Theater in Hollywood, its traditional spot for high-profile L.A. runs, is currently using its 3-D projection system to play "A Christmas Carol.")

The "ultimate Disney event," as the studio's website calls it, will play until Sunday, Dec. 13, the first weekend that "The Princess and the Frog" plays nationwide. Disney already has racked up more than $3.2 million in pre-sales. In Burbank, all but one show from Wednesday through Sunday is sold out, while the larger Ziegfeld in New York has fully booked half of its screenings over the holiday weekend.

In the meantime, high demand and inflated ticket prices -- more than six times the U.S. average at the top end -- means "Princess" should see huge grosses for a two-theater run. It's no accident that the top seven per-theater averages of all time on Box Office Mojo are all Disney animated runs, and it's very likely that "The Princess and the Frog" will join them this weekend, particularly with Friday being a holiday.

-- Ben Fritz

Photo: A scene from "The Princess and the Frog." Credit: Walt Disney Studios

'New Moon' drives second-biggest weekend ever for movie industry

Summit Entertainment had the kind of opening studio executives dream about this weekend, but it's hard to find anyone in the movie business who's not smiling.

Although Summit's "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" opened to a massive $140.7 million in the U.S. and Canada, according to studio estimates, it wasn't the only film to perform well. "The Blind Side," which Warner Bros. distributed for financier Alcon Entertainment, opened to $34.5 million, very strong for a modestly budgeted drama. Festival and critics' favorite "Precious" more than tripled its theater count and kept up its winning ways, grossing $11 million at 629 locations.

With one huge hit, numerous strong performers and no real flops, total box-office receipts expanded to nearly $260 million, according to several studio executives and Hollywood.com. That's the second-biggest nonholiday weekend ever, behind only the one in July 2008 when "The Dark Knight" launched and movie theaters collected just over $260 million.

"It's a really good sign for the industry," said Dan Fellman, president of domestic distribution for Warner Bros. "It just goes to show you that good movies can expand the marketplace."

Several movies are well positioned to keep playing strongly throughout the holidays, most notably "The Blind Side," which garnered an average grade of A-plus from moviegoers, according to market research firm CinemaScore. It's only the second film this year to get a perfect grade, along with "Up." It could easily collect more than $150 million by the end of the year, making it very profitable for Alcon and Warner Bros., which receives a distribution fee.

"New Moon" is sure to drop significantly after its massive debut. The first "Twilight" fell 62% from its opening on Thanksgiving weekend and the sequel will probably do the same. Nonetheless, if it follows the path of its predecessor, "New Moon" will end up grossing more than $300 million domestically and the same amount overseas, making it one of the most profitable pictures of the year. Summit spent only $50 million to produce its second teen vampire flick based on the bestselling novels.

Overseas, "2012" continues to perform extremely well. It grossed $100.5 million overseas, down 37% from its international debut last weekend. That was helped by a huge $7-million launch in Japan, the biggest for any nonlocal movie this year. Domestically, "2012" dropped 59%. The worldwide total gross for Sony's disaster flick from director Roland Emmerich, which cost $200 million to produce, is a very strong $449.8 million.

Two films performed extremely well in limited release in the U.S. and Canada. Sony Pictures Classics opened the Pedro Almodovar picture "Broken Embraces," starring Penelope Cruz, to $107,597 at just two theaters. On its second weekend, Fox's stop-motion animated picture "Fantastic Mr. Fox" collected $199,200 from four theaters, down just 25%. It starts playing nationwide Wednesday.

First Look Pictures opened the new Nicolas Cage crime drama "Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans," directed by Werner Herzog, to a so-so $257,267 at 27 locations.

Here are the top 10 movies at the domestic box office, according to studio estimates and Hollywood.com:

First look: 'New Moon' opens to massive $140.7 million, $258.8 million worldwide [Updated]

"Twilight" No. 2 had the No. 3 opening weekend of all time.

Summit Entertainment's "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" sold an astounding $140.7 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada this weekend, according to studio estimates, blowing away already huge expectations and giving the teen vampire saga the third-biggest domestic debut of all time.

In the 25 foreign countries where "New Moon" launched, it added an extra $118.1 million, giving it a mind-bending worldwide total of $258.8 million. That's the seventh-biggest worldwide launch of all time and is particularly notable given that several international markets where the first "Twilight" performed very well, including Germany, South Korea and Russia, haven't gotten the film yet. [Updated 9:21 a.m.: An earlier version of this post incorrectly said that the worldwide ticket sales total was $248.8 million.]

The domestic debut is the biggest, by a margin of $38 million, for a film opening outside of the summer movie season, between May and July, when the biggest tentpoles traditionally launch. The No. 1 opener of all time is "The Dark Knight," which opened to $158.4 million in July 2008, followed by "Spider-Man 3," which started with $151.1 million in May of 2007.

Ticket sales plummeted 41% on Saturday from Friday, the biggest such decline for any picture this year, reflecting the massive pent-up interest among devoted young female fans of the franchise who gave it the most lucrative midnight shows and opening day of all time.

Despite the movie's record-breaking first day, however, the Saturday decline was virtually identical with the first "Twilight," demonstrating that demand to see the movie hasn't shifted up in the schedule, but grown significantly. It appears that more adult women turned out for the sequel, along with the teenage and tween girls who fueled the original.

Assuming it continues to follow the path of the first "Twilight," "New Moon" will likely end up grossing well over $500 million worldwide, representing a windfall for its independent distributor Summit Entertainment. The movie cost just under $50 million to produce, including Canadian tax credits.

The first "Twilight" collected $385 million worldwide.

Despite the dominance of "New Moon," it was a big weekend overall at the box office. Alcon Entertainment's inspirational drama "The Blind Side," starring Sandra Bullock, opened to a much-bigger-than-expected $34.5 million, a very strong launch for a modestly budgeted drama.

"Planet 51," which Sony Pictures distributed for financier and animation studio Ilion Studios, debuted to a so-so $12.3 million.

Lionsgate's well-reviewed festival film"Precious" continues to play very strongly as it expanded to 629 theaters and grossed a healthy $11 million, bringing its total thus far to $21.4 million. The independent studio bought the hard-hitting drama at the Sundance Film Festival for a minimum guarantee of $5.5 million.

Sony's "2012" fell a sizable 59% from its huge opening, taking in $26.5 million in third place this weekend. Disney's "A Christmas Carol" lost a bit of its mojo, dropping 45%, significantly more than the 26% it declined on its second weekend.

--Ben Fritz

Photo: Fans Deeanna Lopez, left, Sabrina Lopez and Ilrimani Cisneros at the opening of "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" in Universal City on Friday. Credit: Ken Hively / Los Angeles Times.

'New Moon' poised for biggest box office day ever [Updated]

"The Twilight Saga: New Moon" is poised to break its second box office record in a single day.

According to four people who have closely watched ticket sales data today but requested anonymity because they are not authorized to release the information, the teen vampire phenomenon is all but certain to gross more than $67.2 million, the record set by "The Dark Knight" last year for the biggest single-day take at the box office.

By 5 p.m., the movie had already sold more than $50 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada. When evening shows are included, the total will likely be more than $70 million, the people said.

Given the huge amount of pent-up interest among fans, who are rushing out to theaters on opening day, ticket sales are expected to drop significantly on Saturday and Sunday. Nonetheless, a total weekend gross of more than $110 million is all but certain and more than $120 million is very possible. That would give "New Moon" the biggest weekend gross for any movie this year and make it one of the top five pictures of all time at the domestic box office, not accounting for ticket price inflation.

Ticket sales from the 25 foreign countries where "New Moon" is opening this weekend will almost certainly push the worldwide weekend gross to more than $150 million.

Summit Entertainment, the studio behind the "Twilight" films, will release an official total for Friday ticket sales on Saturday morning.

Update (Nov. 21, 8:50 AM): Summit reports that "New Moon" grossed $72.7 million on Friday, easily breaking the single day sales record set by "The Dark Knight." It will now likely collect more than $120 million through Sunday.

Inspirational drama "The Blind Side," starring Sandra Bullock, sold $10.9 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada on Friday, setting it up to be no. 2 for the weekend with an impressive $30 million-plus.

-- Ben Fritz

Related:

Fans scream with delight for "Twilight: New Moon"

"New Moon" review

Photo: Moviegoers wait to see "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" at the AMC movie theater at the Westfield Century City shopping mall in Los Angeles Thursday night. Credit: Matt Sayles / Associated Press.

'New Moon' smashes 'Harry Potter' midnight ticket sales record

The vampires have beat the boy wizard.

According to four people close to the movie, "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" sold more than $22.2 million worth of tickets in midnight shows last night, beating a record set this summer by "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince."

Two people close to the picture said the exact gross, which is still being calculated by Summit Entertainment, could be as high as $26 million.

In addition, one person with access to ticket sales data said the original "Twilight," which was re-released in theaters last night, collected $1.2 million from rabid fans who turned out.

Morning ticket sales for "New Moon" are also huge, according to the person, already totaling $13.9 million. That's a clear sign the  sequel is on track for a massive Friday at the box office.

Summit is expected to release  official estimates soon.

Update (10:45 AM): Summit's official estimate for midnight ticket sales is $26.27 million. Its official estimate for the gross of the original "Twilight" last night is $1.3 million.

Update (7 PM): "New Moon" is poised to have the biggest day ever at the domestic box office. Details here.

-- Ben Fritz and Claudia Eller

Photo: Tickets for the midnight showing of "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" sold out at a movie theater in Nampa, Idaho. Credit: Mike Vogt / Associated Press