Lionsgate planning aggressive rollout for 'Precious' after huge start

Most years, at least one independent movie opens in the fall with dreams of Oscar glory and ends up a box-office sensation. This year, it's looking like that movie is "Precious," if Lionsgate's expansion plans pay off.

The Sundance award-winning, critically acclaimed adaptation of the 1996 book "Push" opened to an outstanding $1.8 million at just 18 theaters in four cities this weekend. Its average take of $100,000 is the highest ever for a movie at more than six locations. The indie studio achieved the remarkable debut with a hybrid strategy of playing theaters that targeted affluent moviegoers likely drawn by the movie's rave reviews and theaters in African American communities, where endorsements from Oprah Winfrey and Tyler Perry likely helped.

A little more than 50% of ticket buyers were African American, and a much more lopsided 68% were female, according to exit polls. Moviegoers gave it an average grade of A, a sign that it will have excellent word-of-mouth.

With any independent movie, however, it's never guaranteed that niche appeal, no matter how strong, will carry over to a more mainstream audience. Last November, for instance, Fox Searchlight debuted "Slumdog Millionaire" to $360,000 at 10 theaters, a solid opening but well below that of "Precious." It went on to gross more than $141 million, helped by a best-picture Oscar, a prize that many think is a possibility for "Precious." But many other movies, like "Melinda and Melinda," "Lust, Caution" and "The Aristocrats" started very strong in limited release but ultimately grossed less than $10 million.

Lionsgate's plan is to take advantage of this weekend's momentum quickly. Friday, it will open in five new cities -- Philadelphia, Washington, Houston, Dallas and San Francisco -- while expanding in the cities where it's currently playing, bringing its total theater count to more than 100. One week later, on Nov. 20, the movie will start playing nationwide. That's an aggressive strategy. "Brokeback Mountain," another movie that many doubted could appeal to broad crowds, didn't expand to more than 500 theaters until its sixth weekend. It ultimately grossed $83 million.

The studio paid $5.5 million to acquire "Precious" at the Sundance Film Festival this year, an investment that seems certain to pay off handsomely, even if the movie doesn't turn into a monster hit.

Disney also is hoping for a strong performance in the weeks to come for its new movie that opened this weekend, albeit for different reasons. "A Christmas Carol" opened to just $31 million domestically, a surprisingly weak start given its hefty production budget of nearly $200 million and substantial marketing push.

The very similar "Polar Express," another motion-capture animated holiday film directed by Robert Zemeckis, opened in November and played well through the holidays. That movie cost less to produce, however, and got an average grade of A+ from moviegoers, according to market research firm CinemaScore. "A Christmas Carol" garnered a less impressive B+, a sign that word-of-mouth won't be as good.

Its disappointing debut is leading many to question whether Disney opened the movie too far in front of the holiday season and whether star Jim Carrey is no longer a box-office draw.

The soft start for "A Christmas Carol" drove down overall ticket sales 12% from a year ago, when "Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa" opened, according to Hollywood.com.

Sony's decision to extend the run of "This Is It" beyond the announced two weeks looked like a smart one this weekend as the Michael Jackson movie dropped only 40% on its second weekend, a modest drop for a concert film. Ticket sales for the genre have historically been front loaded.

The most impressive hold of the weekend was Universal's "Couples Retreat." On its fifth weekend in theaters, ticket sales for the romantic comedy were virtually flat from a week ago, a rarity in the business. It is now very close to grossing more than $100 million domestically.

Here are the top 10 movies at the domestic box office, according to Hollywood.com:

First look: 'Christmas Carol' weak, 'Precious' soars

Audiences said a surprising "humbug" to big-budget family fare this weekend while embracing one of the most grim and serious movies of the year.

Walt Disney Studios' nearly $200-million investment in producing its animated 3-D version of "A Christmas Carol" opened to a weak $31 million this weekend, according to studio estimates, while Lionsgate's "Precious" broke records by selling $1.8 million worth of tickets at just 18 theaters.

The "Christmas Carol" launch was particularly disappointing for Disney given the hype generated by its marketing and publicity machine, star Jim Carrey and the benefit of 55% of its theaters playing the movie on 3-D screens, which carry a ticket price surcharge. (Nearly three-quarters of ticket sales came from theaters playing "A Christmas Carol" in 3-D.)

The opening weekend number is just $400,000 more than what director Robert Zemeckis' last 3-D motion-capture animated movie, "The Polar Express," grossed in its first five days after opening on a Wednesday in 2004, when ticket prices were substantially lower.

Last year on the same weekend, DreamWorks Animation's "Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa" debuted to $63.1 million, demonstrating that it is possible to launch a family movie to significantly better business in early November.

The news for "A Christmas Carol" was somewhat better overseas, where the debut grossed $18 million in 12 markets, led by Mexico and British. Disney reported that the total is 50% more than what "The Polar Express" opened to in the same countries. The studio is now left to hope that future foreign openings will be strong and that it will decline slowly domestically, although turning it into a financial success after such a weak start will be tough.

Meanwhile, Lionsgate's "Precious" broke records by generating a per-theater opening average of $100,000, one of the highest of all time and the highest ever for any movie playing more than six theaters. It opened this weekend in Los Angeles, New York, Chicago and Atlanta.

Many in Hollywood and even at Lionsgate, which acquired the movie for $5.5 million after it won three top prizes at the Sundance Film Festival this year, wondered whether it would be too grim for audiences in a year when many serious dramas have struggled at the box office. But the independent studio's strategy of marketing to upscale audiences and a broad swath of African Americans through critical raves and endorsements from Oprah Winfrey and Tyler Perry clearly paid off.

Sony's Michael Jackson movie, "This Is It," held very well for a concert film, dropping 40% on its second weekend to $14 million domestically, good enough for second place at the box office. Most concert movies trail off quickly after a big opening, but "This Is It" appears to be generating strong word of mouth and repeat viewings, validating Sony's decision to extend the movie's run beyond the initially planned two weeks.

Thus far, the picture, for which Sony paid $60 million, has sold $57.9 million worth of tickets domestically and $128.6 million internationally.

Among the weekend's other new films, "The Men Who Stare at Goats" and "The Fourth Kind" had decent starts while "The Box" did not.

"Goats" collected a studio-estimated $13.3 million. Distributor Overture Films paid close to $5 million for domestic rights to the political comedy starring George Clooney, which cost $20 million to produce.

"The Fourth Kind," which Universal distributed for financier Gold Circle Films, opened to $12.5 million, a good start for the low-cost horror film.

But Warner Bros.' thriller "The Box," which it co-financed with Radar Pictures and Media Rights Capital at a cost of $25 million, debuted to just $7.9 million.

-- Ben Fritz

Photo: A scene from "A Christmas Carol." Credit: ImageMovers Digital

Opening day: 'Christmas Carol' debut not looking too jolly

Walt Disney Studios' big-budget holiday bet "A Christmas Carol" got off to a soft start Friday, selling a studio-estimated $9 million in the U.S. and Canada.

Based on the performance of similar films, that means the motion-capture-animated tale starring Jim Carrey should gross $30 million to $35 million through Sunday, a relatively weak debut given its production budget of nearly $200 million and Disney's substantial investment in marketing.

Pre-release surveys had indicated the movie would open to at least $40 million domestically over its first three days.

A soft launch at home won't necessarily be a lump of coal in Disney's stocking, however. Several other family movies have done huge business overseas this year, and the studio is surely hoping "A Christmas Carol" will do the same. In addition, family movies often play for a long time in theaters. Director Robert Zemeckis' previous motion-capture holiday tale, "The Polar Express," grossed $30.6 million in its first five days after debuting on a Wednesday and went on to collect a healthy $162.8 million.

"This Is It" had a strong hold for a concert movie. Sony's Michael Jackson film saw ticket sales drop 47% on Friday from a week earlier, putting it on track for a full weekend decline of closer to 40% and a three-day gross of about $14 million. Most concert movies decline more than 50% on their second weekends.

Overture's "The Men Who Stare at Goats" and Universal's release of Gold Circle's "The Fourth Kind" appear headed toward openings in the low- to mid-teens, while "The Box" from Warner Bros is on track to gross about $8 million by Sunday.

-- Ben Fritz

Photo: A scene from "A Christmas Carol." Credit: ImageMovers Digital

Movie projector: Holiday season kicks off with Disney's pricey 'Christmas Carol'

We just got past Halloween. Thanksgiving is still three weeks away. You know what that means. Christmas baby!

Friday, Walt Disney Studios opens "A Christmas Carol," its nearly $200-million version of the classic holiday tale starring Jim Carrey, with the majority of theaters playing it in on digital 3-D screens that have higher ticket prices. Executives who follow pre-release polling say the movie will likely sell between $40 million and $45 million worth of tickets on its opening weekend. That's a decent start given the movie's huge budget and an aggressive marketing campaign by Disney.

A long life in theaters and a strong performance overseas will be key to the picture's ultimate success. "A Christmas Carol" debuts simultaneously this weekend in Australia, Britain, German-speaking Europe, Mexico, Brazil and Scandinavia. It will open in other countries by the end of November.

Family pictures often hold well at the box office and draw bigger international audiences. "The Polar Express," "Christmas Carol" director Robert Zemeckis' similar motion-capture holiday movie from 2004, opened to $30.6 million over its first five days and went on to gross $162.8 million (not including subsequent re-releases). It collected $124 million overseas, but Disney likely has even higher hopes for "A Christmas Carol." Several family movies this year, such as "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" and Disney's own "Up," have done huge business outside the U.S.

"A Christmas Carol" kicks off a holiday season with a number of big movies that could help boost what has already been a healthy year at domestic box office. On Nov. 13, Sony Pictures opens its big-budget disaster movie, "2012," which is tracking for a big $60-million-plus opening, followed by Summit's highly anticipated "Twilight" sequel.

Later in November and December come a number of pricey movies with big box-office potential, including Disney's animated feature "The Princess and the Frog," Paramount's Peter Jackson-directed drama "The Lovely Bones," Sony's romantic comedy "Did You Hear About the Morgans," Fox's "Alvin and the Chipmunks" sequel, Warner Bros.' "Sherlock Holmes" and the costliest picture of the year, Fox's James Cameron film "Avatar."

Studios have traditionally waited until closer to Thanksgiving to start opening the big holiday movies that they hope will play well until the new year. Last year, however, the schedule moved up as DreamWorks Animation debuted "Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa" on the first weekend of November to a very strong $63.1 million.

Big Sunday shows 'This Is It' isn't performing like a concert film

"This Is It" continues to throw all the old rules about concert movies out the window.

Domestic ticket sales for the Michael Jackson movie totaled $8.3 million on Sunday, nearly $2 million more than the $6.3 million Sony Pictures projected Sunday morning and 17% more than the movie grossed on Saturday. The movie's total domestic gross is now $34.4 million, making the worldwide number $103 million.

Concert movies traditionally see ticket sales decline rapidly after they premiere, as avid fans who turn out on opening day make up most of the audience. But "This Is It" grossed more on Sunday than any day since it debuted, a sign that word-of-mouth is strong and moviegoers who initially may have been hesitant are turning out. There also may be repeat viewing, which is often the case for concert films.

If the trend continues, "This Is It" should enjoy a relatively modest decline next weekend, and what initially looked like a middling domestic performance may actually turn into a pretty good one, albeit not nearly as big as overseas. That's where Jackson is really cleaning up.

-- Ben Fritz

Photo: Michael Jackson in "This Is It." Credit: Kevin Mazur

'This Is It' on its way to $200 million-plus, thanks mainly to foreigners

He's huge in Japan.

Michael Jackson's swan song "This Is It" made up for a so-so start domestically by doing more than twice as much business overseas.

The movie sold $32.5 million over its first five days in the U.S. and Canada and $68.5 million in 97 other countries. It stands with "Angels and Demons" and "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" as one of a handful of films that more than doubled its domestic opening in foreign countries.

Japan, where Jackson is particularly huge, was the highest-grossing territory. "This Is It" collected $10.4 million there, making it the third-biggest opening of the year. Britain, where Jackson's "This Is It" concert was scheduled to play, was No. 2, with $7.4 million, followed by Germany, France, Australia and China.

That's particularly good for Sony Pictures because movies often decline slower overseas than domestically. The movie's foreign opening was right in line with expectations going into the weekend, but the five-day domestic take of $32.5 million was at the bottom of what the studio and others in Hollywood thought was possible based on initial hype and pre-release surveys.

Everywhere it played, the best news for "This Is It" is that it didn't fall dramatically after a so-so start on Wednesday. Although many similar concert movies open big and fizzle fast, the Jackson film had a solid weekend compared with its Wednesday grosses. Domestic ticket sales were down less than 10% on Saturday, better than many in Hollywood had expected on Halloween and a sign of positive buzz.

Now that Sony has, in a not-too-surprising move, extended the movie beyond a previously announced two-week run, the film will almost certainly gross more than $200 million worldwide. That would be a healthy performance given Sony's investment of $60 million for the rights to make the movie, plus a relatively modest marketing spend.

There were no other new pictures in wide release as most studios avoided the weekend with Halloween on a Saturday. Sony was forced to take the date as it wanted to launch the film as quickly as possible after Jackson's unexpected death and every other fall weekend was crowded with big releases.

In limited release, however, Apparition debuted "The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day" to a solid $461,614 at 68 theaters. That's more than 15 times as much as the ultra-violent original, an infamous flop in 2000 that found renewed life on DVD.

Interest in the filmmakers behind "Napoleon Dynamite" seems to be fading, however, as their new picture, "Gentlemen Broncos," debuted to a dismal $10,000 at two locations.

Most movies already in the market experienced hefty declines because of Halloween, but "Paranormal Activity" and "Amelia" both held on particularly well, thanks in part to added theaters.

Here are the top 10 movies at the domestic box office according to studio estimates and Hollywood.com:

First look: 'This Is It' won't quit, takes $101 million worldwide; run extended

Though it didn't live up to the outsize hype and had only a mixed start domestically, "This Is It" is looking like something of a worldwide hit.

The behind-the-scenes look at rehearsals for the late Michael Jackson's concert grossed $101 million over its first five days, more than two-thirds of which came from the 97 foreign territories, where it opened simultaneously Wednesday.

Although that's on the low end of what many at Sony Pictures and around Hollywood had expected given huge anticipation among fans for the film, it's a solid start given that the studio spent $60 million to make "This Is It" and marketing costs weren't too large.

Despite the movie's so-so start in the U.S. and Canada on Wednesday, domestic grosses stayed steady over the weekend, totaling $21.3 million Friday through Sunday. Although many predicted that Halloween falling on a Saturday could be disastrous for the picture, ticket sales declined only modestly from Friday, a sign of good word of mouth for "This Is It," which got an average grade of A, according to market research firm CinemaScore, from those who attended on opening day.

Sony got much better news overseas, however, where "This Is It" has grossed $68.5 million through Sunday, a healthy start that confirmed the studio's hope that the movie would perform significantly better in foreign countries, where Jackson's famous personal issues have not made as big of a public impact.

Concert movies typically fall off very fast at the box office, but given its strong word of mouth and decent play on Saturday despite the holiday, "This Is It" has a shot at breaking that trend and ultimately grossing about $200 million worldwide. Sony clearly has its eyes on that prize as it has, to the surprise of few in Hollywood, extended the movie's run beyond the previously announced two week. "This Is It" will play until Thanksgiving weekend in the U.S., about as long as any movie that opens now would keep showing, and have runs of varying lengths overseas.

"This Is It" was the only major new release this weekend, but "Paranormal Activity" held on at a solid No. 2. The indie horror sensation expanded from 1,945 to 2,404 theaters and declined 22% to $16.4 million. Its domestic total is now $84.8 million.

Most movies already in release saw big drops, in large part because of light moviegoing on Halloween. Standouts included "Couples Retreat," "Law Abiding Citizen" and "Amelia," all of which fell less than 50%.

-- Ben Fritz

Photo: Fans at the premiere of "This Is It" in London on Wednesday. Credit: Richard Lewis / Sony Pictures

$20.1 million is it for 'This Is It'

Sony's unusual Wednesday launch for its Michael Jackson movie "This Is It" yielded decidedly mixed results.

The documentary sold $20.1-million worth of tickets around the world, with $7.4 million coming from the U.S. and Canada and $12.7 million from 97 foreign countries.

The United Kingdom was the biggest foreign market for "This Is It," bringing $1.9 million. France was next with $1.4 million, followed by Japan with $1.2 million, German with $1.1 million, and China with $730,000.

A small amount of the total came from night-time shows in the Western United States on Tuesday starting at 9 PM Pacific, but the vast majority is from screenings on Wednesday.

Opening movies worldwide on a Wednesday outside of summer of the holidays is extremely rare. On that basis, Sony can claim a solid launch when measured against any comparable films.

However, given the huge amounts of hype surrounding the movie and the $60 million Sony spent to make the movie, outside of its marketing costs, the opening is none too impressive.

Nighttime shows in the domestic market appear to have been particularly slow, as several studio executives had been expecting the movie to gross over $10 million domestically as of early evening Wednesday. Before the launch, executives at Sony and elsewhere said the movie could easily collect $20 million domestically on its opening day, which turned out to be the global total.

Sony is expecting relatively weak grosses today as well as Saturday, when moviegoers will likely be celebrating Halloween instead of going to theaters. Friday will be the critical day in determining the ultimate performance of "This Is It," because it will demonstrate whether word of mouth brings people who weren't rabid Michael Jackson fans to see the film.

While it's difficult to predict the ultimate worldwide performance of "This Is It" after one day, it appears that the domestic gross through Sunday will end up around $30 million, on the very low end of expectations before the picture launched.

Update (11:06 AM): Jackson fans who turned out loved the film. U.S. moviegoers gave "This Is It" an average grade of A, according to market research firm CinemaScore.

-- Ben Fritz

Photo: There were no lines for the first show of "This Is It" at The Grove shopping center in Los Angeles on Tuesday night. Credit: Brian Vander Brug/Los Angeles Times

'This Is It' headed for $10 million to $12 million opening day

The opening-day box office for "This Is It" is neither a "Thriller" nor "Bad."

According to executives at several studios who have been tracking the returns, the new Michael Jackson documentary is likely to sell $10 million to $12 million worth of tickets domestically today.

Though that number could vary a bit depending on how later screenings perform, executives experienced in tracking box office said the movie had virtually no chance of collecting more than $15 million or less than $9 million.

"This Is It" sold $2.2 million worth of tickets last night; most of that probably occurred after midnight and can be counted in today's grosses.

Comparisons with other movies are difficult, given that the only major releases studios have put out on a Wednesday outside of summer or the holidays are "The Passion of the Christ," a phenomenon that benefited from group purchases by churches, and "The Matrix Revolutions," the third movie in a blockbuster trilogy. Those pictures collected $26.6 million and $24.3 million, respectively, on their opening days.

The movie's big test will come Friday. Ticket sales Thursday are expected to be slow as most hard-core Michael Jackson fans will have come out last night or today. Saturday will also be slow because it's Halloween, historically a dismal day at the box office even though Sony is trying to generate publicity connected to Jackson's album "Thriller."

If word of mouth is strong and moviegoers beyond the most devoted Jackson fans are interested, that is  likely to be evident in healthy ticket sales Friday. If it's a slow day, Sony may be looking at a five-day gross as low as $30 million and a soft two-week run relative to its investment of $60 million in rights to make the movie and tens of millions more in marketing.

Ultimately, however, domestic ticket sales may not be that important. "This Is It" is expected to perform substantially better overseas, where it could be a major hit regardless of how the film does in the U.S. and Canada. Box-office receipts from the 95 foreign countries where "This Is It" opened simultaneously are not yet available.

-- Ben Fritz

Photo: Jermaine Jackson arrives at the premiere of "This Is It" at the Nokia Theatre in Los Angeles last night. Credit: Jason Merritt / Getty Images

'This Is It' collects $2.2 million from late night shows

Michael Jackson fans beat it to theaters in droves last night.

"This Is It" sold $2.2 million worth of tickets in late night Tuesday screenings in the U.S. and Canada, a strong number for a weeknight outside of the summer, when most adults have work and kids have school the next day.

The healthy debut is good news for Sony, which spent a hefty $60 million to acquire rights to make the movie and has invested tens of millions more in marketing around the world.

Most Sony insiders had expected a solid start, however, since audience surveys showed there was a relatively small but passionate group of moviegoers who wanted to see "This Is It" as soon as possible. The big question is whether word-of-mouth will attract more casual Jackson fans in the coming days and whether those who turned out opening night will return a second (or fifth?) time.

Nonetheless, everybody loves a big launch. And with $2.2 million already in the bank, "This Is It" could easily gross more than $15 million by the end of today.

The big money for "This Is It" will come from overseas, however, where the movie opened in 97 territories last night and today. Sony executives are predicting the movie will collect at least twice as much from foreign countries as it does domestically. International ticket sales aren't yet available, though a studio spokesman said that "early indications already reveal strong late show and early matinee attendance" overseas.

--Ben Fritz

Related:

"This Is It" review

Michael Jackson should have been there

Will 'This Is It' perform like Jackson?

Photo: Young fans watching red carpet arrivals at last night's premiere of "This Is It" at the Nokia Theater in Los Angeles. Credit: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images