Audiences love 'Princess and the Frog,' 'Invictus,' but will they keep going?

Walt Disney Studios and Warner Bros. have established that moviegoers dig their new movies "The Princess and the Frog" and "Invictus." But as a holiday season crowded with highly anticipated movies approaches, the question is whether they can both keep playing.

Disney's first hand-drawn animated feature in six years garnered an average audience grade of A, according to market research firm CinemaScore, while Warners' apartheid story received an A-. Neither movie had particularly strong ticket sales on their opening weekends, however. The big-budget "Princess" launched to a studio-estimated $25 million from Friday through Sunday. Historical drama "Invictus," which cost $60 million to produce, opened to just $9.1 million.

The last two non-Pixar animated features from Disney, "Bolt," and "Meet the Robinsons," opened to $26 million and $25 million, respectively, and were ultimately considered financial disappointments. "Invictus," meanwhile, started significantly below the $29.5-million wide-release debut of the last movie directed by Clint Eastwood, "Gran Torino," a major hit, and closer to that of his 2007 flop "Changeling," which launched to $9.4 million and ended up with just $35.7 million.

Weekends in the first half of December are traditionally slow, and the two studios were both hoping this weekend would essentially serve as a setup to generate momentum and word-of-mouth going into the holiday season, when many children and adults will be off work and out of school.

The competition for moviegoers will be fierce, however, as Fox's hugely hyped "Avatar," the first movie from "Titanic" director James Cameron in 12 years, debuts Friday, along with the romantic comedy "What About the Morgans?" The next week, on Christmas Day, "Sherlock Holmes," "Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel" and romantic comedy "It's Complicated" all open with big expectations.

For "The Princess and the Frog" and "Invictus" to succeed, they will have to find audiences amid a very crowded marketplace. "Princess," whose opening-weekend audience was 80% families, will be competing for that same crowd with "Alvin and the Chipmunks." "Invictus," meanwhile, faces a number of new pictures aimed at its mostly adult crowd -- which was 69% over 30 this weekend -- as well as several in limited release that will be expanding further, such as "Up in the Air" and "Precious."

For more on the performance of "Up in the Air," "The Lovely Bones," and "A Serious Man" in limited release, as well as the continued phenomenal run of "The Blind Side," see our initial box-office post.

Here are the top 10 movies at the domestic box office, according to studio estimates and Hollywood.com:

1. "The Princess and the Frog" (Disney): $25 million as it opened in wide release. Total: $27.9 million  including its previous two-week run at two theaters.

2. "The Blind Side" (Warner Bros./Alcon): Declined just 23% on its fourth weekend to $15.5 million. Domestic total: $150.2 million.

3. "Invictus" (Warner Bros./Spyglass): $9.1-million debut.

4. "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" (Summit): Fell 48% on its fourth weekend to $8 million. $267.4 million domestic total. International total: $358.7 million.

5. "A Christmas Carol" (Disney): Off only 12% on its sixth weekend at $6.9 million. Total U.S. and Canadian ticket sales: $124.5 million.

6. "Brothers" (Lionsgate/Relativity): $5 million, down 49% on its second weekend. Total: $17.4 million.

7. "2012" (Sony): Dropped 35% on its fifth weekend to $4.4 million. Domestic total: $155.3 million. International: $556 million.

8. "Old Dogs" (Disney): $4.4 million, off 36% on its third weekend. Domestic total: $40 million so far.

9. "Armored" (Sony): $3.5 million, down 46% on its second weekend. U.S. and Canadian total: $11.7 million.

10. "Ninja Assassin" (Warner Bros./Dark Castle/Legendary): Down 46% on its third weekend to $2.7 million. Domestic total: $34.3 million.

-- Ben Fritz

Top photo: Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon in "Invictus." Credit: Keith Bernstein / Warner Bros.
Bottom photo: "The Princess and the Frog." Credit: Walt Disney Studios

Comments

[mslewis]

True, "Changling" only earned $35M domestically but the box office was $77M foreign for a total of $113M worldwide on a budget of $55M. Doesn't that mean it actually made a profit? That's what makes Angelina Jolie a true star; her movies are always hits in the foreign market, unlike Matt Damon.

[whiskey]

No, it does not mean Changeling made a profit. Studio keeps 75% first weekend, 50% thereafter, may get only 40% abroad, as opposed to costs for licensing, dubbing, marketing, and so on. Eli Roth famously found his (loathsome) film "Hostel" on sale outside his hotel in Mexico City for the equivalent of 25 cents. Denzel Washington's "American Gangster" was on sale (pirated) in LA streets a week before it opened. Fox and another major studio have shut down DVD Korean and Spanish language divisions because of rampant piracy. DVD sales are down, with Redbox $1 rentals and Netflix major competitors.

Changeling's production Budget was $55 million with another $30 in the US for marketing. Making a cost of $85 million or so. it grossed $9.3 million opening weekend or $6.9 million for the studio. Add another 13 million or so and you get ~$20 million domestically. Figure half of the $77 million foreign (don't forget exchange rates and taxes) at about 38.5 million. That's a total of ~$58 million against a cost of ~$85 million DOMESTICALLY. At the most generous assumptions, Changeling COST the studio about ~$27 million! DVD sales remember won't bail out the film -- this is not 1998 anymore. [All figures from Box Office Mojo]

Color the "Princess and the Frog" a multicultural, "diversity" failure. The overwhelmingly White pre-teen girl audiences Disney caters to wants to see stories about people who look like (idealized) versions of them. This is why, when any movie about Blacks is made for a major audience, it tends to feature what Spike Lee called "the Magical Negro" in his essay bemoaning films like "the Green Mile" and "Radio" and "Legend of Bagger Vance." Because the White Majority audience is not really interested in Blacks, only how Blacks can affect "them" (in status, spiritual development, and so on). [America is about 76-80% White depending on which Census Bureau survey you choose, and about 12.5-12.8% Black.] This demographic fact is why you don't see many Black or Hispanic tween girls flocking to the Twilight/New Moon showings, or Black and Hispanic guys dressing up like Star Trek folks.

That's OK -- Tyler Perry makes films that are cheap and draw in Black audiences pretty deeply. They're not for me, but that's OK too. A major studio film that believes PC/Multiculti/"Diversity" nonsense however is setting itself up for failure. The money is in the wide audience, action movies for guys "plus" women, princess fantasies for pre-teen girls "plus" families, Pixar movies for kid "plus" adults. No wonder "Princess and the Frog" and "Invictus" failed -- though the latter probably has problems around star Freeman's plans to marry his grand-daughter. Hard to play the "magical" redeeming role that is Morgan Freeman's stock in trade when your personal life is the stuff of icky tabloid headlines.

Jolie's films, btw, tank regularly. She gets roles because she draws lots of tabloid attention, not because she makes money. Kevin James or "funny" Adam Sandler movies make far more than any Jolie movie. But then most Hollywood movies don't make money and are never intended to make money.

[Joseph]

I doubt the Disney movie or Invictus will have huge audience draws. They will have moderate success. It's Christmas. Many people are out of jobs or don't have much money for Christmas gifts. We used to go to the movies 3-4 times a month. We are lucky if we make one. This Christmas it will be only one movie, Downey's Sherlock Holmes...

[mslewis]

Thanks for the lecture, Whiskey but I didn't need it. None of what you said is true. You are not an "insider" just someone trying to sound important.

So, "Jolie films tank regularly"??? Then people in Hollywood must be really stupid to give her $20M per movie, right? Or, are you just the stupid one?

[Levinson Axelrod]

I actually enjoy going out to the movies during winter time. And especially during Christmas.

I haven't seen these movies yet, but from what I hear about The Prince and the Frog -- It's good news.
And Morgan Freeman always makes great movies.