'This Is It' headed for $10 million to $12 million opening day

The opening-day box office for "This Is It" is neither a "Thriller" nor "Bad."

According to executives at several studios who have been tracking the returns, the new Michael Jackson documentary is likely to sell $10 million to $12 million worth of tickets domestically today.

Though that number could vary a bit depending on how later screenings perform, executives experienced in tracking box office said the movie had virtually no chance of collecting more than $15 million or less than $9 million.

"This Is It" sold $2.2 million worth of tickets last night; most of that probably occurred after midnight and can be counted in today's grosses.

Comparisons with other movies are difficult, given that the only major releases studios have put out on a Wednesday outside of summer or the holidays are "The Passion of the Christ," a phenomenon that benefited from group purchases by churches, and "The Matrix Revolutions," the third movie in a blockbuster trilogy. Those pictures collected $26.6 million and $24.3 million, respectively, on their opening days.

The movie's big test will come Friday. Ticket sales Thursday are expected to be slow as most hard-core Michael Jackson fans will have come out last night or today. Saturday will also be slow because it's Halloween, historically a dismal day at the box office even though Sony is trying to generate publicity connected to Jackson's album "Thriller."

If word of mouth is strong and moviegoers beyond the most devoted Jackson fans are interested, that is  likely to be evident in healthy ticket sales Friday. If it's a slow day, Sony may be looking at a five-day gross as low as $30 million and a soft two-week run relative to its investment of $60 million in rights to make the movie and tens of millions more in marketing.

Ultimately, however, domestic ticket sales may not be that important. "This Is It" is expected to perform substantially better overseas, where it could be a major hit regardless of how the film does in the U.S. and Canada. Box-office receipts from the 95 foreign countries where "This Is It" opened simultaneously are not yet available.

-- Ben Fritz

Photo: Jermaine Jackson arrives at the premiere of "This Is It" at the Nokia Theatre in Los Angeles last night. Credit: Jason Merritt / Getty Images

Comments

[Woo]

MJ was a brilliant musical talent, no doubt he was the greatest performer,
Thank you Michael for your music, your talent and your music will live forever as long as music exist......

[Samuel]

This film has the blood and sweat of MJ, and it should be soaked up by the real fans.

I don't care for the general public. They were never there in the "picture" and never should be. Period.

MJ needs no recognition by anyone. The film speaks for itself and just the way MJ wanted-for generations to come.

[H money]

You know why this movie is coming out for Halloween?? Michael Jackson was the creepiest S.O.B ever. Ya I know he's dead, but he was a child molester. His music was awesome, but as a person, the scum of the earth. And now we praise him like a god because he's dead. Well I say good riddance to another P.O.S human being!! The whole idea of this movie is a joke.

[eons]

The scum of the earth are people like Roman Polanski, who admittedly raped a little girl. Or Woody Allen, whose own children hid when he came to see them, because he always touched them. One had a restraining order taken out against him. Nobody has shunned them.

Since Jackson was acquitted in spite of little or no support (compare to Polanski), all you have to concentrate on is his awesome music. Music was what he gave to the world and he literally died for it. So spare us the unfounded hatred and bitterness.