NBC won't spin Jay Leno numbers yet, but it has some spinning to do

Looking to avoid another premature declaration, NBC will not issue a press release today anointing Jay Leno as the new king of prime time as it did with Conan O'Brien in late night when he premiered in June. That turned out to be a rush to judgment, as Conan's numbers quickly dropped off and CBS' David Letterman overtook him in viewers and closed the gap in key demographics.

Leno's first-night numbers were very impressive, but there is an asterisk next to them. While he drew almost 18 million viewers, his competition was weak. ESPN did have football, but rival broadcasters CBS and ABC were in rerun and movie mode. Furthermore, the end of the U.S. Open delayed CBS' schedule, so Leno didn't even square off against a full hour of "CSI Miami." On the demographics front, Leno easily won among viewers ages 18 to 49 and 25-54 but was strongest with the over-50 crowd. For a more detailed report on Leno's first-night performance, please see our analysis at our sister blog Show Tracker.  

As the competition increases and the novelty wears off, Leno's numbers will no doubt come down. NBC knows this and has been wisely lowering expectations with advertisers and the media. 

NBC also has to do a sell job. For some 15 years, the network has stressed the importance of the 18-49 demographic and the high median income of its audience. With sophisticated comedies and dramas like "Friends," "ER," "Frasier" and "The West Wing," it was no wonder that NBC's typical viewers had deep pockets.

Now five hours of its prime-time schedule is filled with a show that appeals to a decidedly older audience that has less money to spend. NBC has said repeatedly it is programming for margins, not ratings. That's fine, but after changing the way the game is played on Madison Avenue, it will be interesting to see how successful NBC is at again changing the rules.

-- Joe Flint

Photo: Jay Leno with Jerry Seinfeld. Credit: NBC/Justin Lubin

Comments

[Cecilia]

Nothing really changed with Jay Leno's show. I was glad he did not start his jokes by evoking Bill Clinton's sexual past. He did talk about sex but I hope he has more interesting things to say than sex. Is he deprived or is he simply obsessed with SEX? Chris Henson needs to check Leno's laptop. J Leno may have interesting and forbidden photos on it.

[Andy]

Who cares? It's all clap-trap, anyways. "Uh, what's up with that?" isn't humor. Try college. Go to it. Enroll in some classes. Get some skills. Then perform.

[Ishraq]

I liked Jay before and am happy I can enjoy something on tv at 10 pm et that is funny and light hearted. I agree with Jay that "it ain't broke" and I like that there were things that could appeal to the younger audience, like Rihanna and Jay-Z and the rest of us, like Oprah and political humor. I used to watch the the 10pm local news on FOX, but now I'll just skip it to watch Jay.

[Julie Thompson]

I love Jay and could hardly wait for his new show to start . Please give Jay his desk back - men don't look good sitting . Why oh why did you change a winning format . We want Jay's monologue then the Headlines (which I love ) then the guest and then the singer . Last night was a hodgepodge for me . I'll still watch 'cause I love Jay. I hate his new behind the scenes people . That may be too strong a word "hate" .

[Dale]

We always loved the Leno show before and are very happy that he is back.
We haven't watched the tonight show since he left have been watching Letterman nightly. Will now be able to go back to watch the 10:oo news on
NBC now
GOOD JOB JAY GLAD YOUR BACK.....

[Ernest]

I am really Happy that the "Jay Leno" show is back on the air..

[DLS]

Turned Jay off right after Sienfeld because I had no intrest in listing to Kanye "The Thug" West, what a losser. Jay get a clue. I will not watch tonight because of Micheal Moore and Tom Cruise.I think Law and Order and The Office is all NBC has going for it.

[Kari - Long time Jay watcher]

First, I want to begin that I am a 25 year, long term lover of Jay Leno and his intellect, classiness, quick come-backs with taste, etc... After watching the first two nights, this is my reaction,from the heart:

Please put Jay behind a desk again- the chairs are awkward.
The set is too "So you want to be a Millionaire" - Jay is classic, and should stick to a classic set.
The cut-and-paste head skits are pretty lame-please keep to a minimum.
I love the concept of introducing new comedians as a "big break" moment, but both first nights have been mediocre, at best (sorry).
The best part of of Jay, anywhere, is his stand-up comedy (political slants and general poking fun) - let him just do this without interruption. Jay is a master interviewer and connnects so well with guests.

Last night's highlight was the kind manner he interviwed K. West.
Tonight's highlight was his intervew with M. Moore.

Headlines are always good.

JayWalking with regular folks is always enjoyable.

In thinking about the 11:30 format, I feel it still works at 10:00.

I am concerned that the humor is not quite "grabbing" us like the humor did at the 11:30 slot- Why? Well, I am an educated 46 year old woman (Phd education student and full time education administrator) my husband is a 55 year old minimally educated, well-rounded business owner, and my father is a 71 year old non-educated viewer. We all share in a long-time commitment to watching Jay and have been dedicated fans of his class and kind-hearted humor. But, we want Jay to succeed in this new adventure. Each of us have concerns that the new format is a bit . . . ( I asked both my husband and father the word they would use to describe our first two-night experience) Mine was "lame", my dad says "too chopped up", and my husband says, "not too engaging". I repeat that we are all wanting Jay to succeed. Please reconsider the former format at the 10:00 slot. Jay never crossed the line with raunchiness at 11:30 and I don't see that putting the similar format at 10:00 would be a stretch for an earlier audience.

We send thi email to give you our first two night impression. We want Jay to be the top! So, we give you our honest feedback.

Sincerely,
Kari Selleck
Owosso, Michigan
One of Jay's hugest fans of all time!

[granny]

I was not really impressed. I think he tried to hit everything (comedy, interviews, sober momernts) and missed the mark. Some of the humor was a little more out there than it should have been. I might watch again just for comparison.

[Richard Stacy]

I am a long time Jay fan. I have three suggestions though:

1. Jay, please get a haircut, what's up with that?

2. Never, ever have Kanye West on again!

3. Never ever have Michael Moore on again.

Are you trying to alienate the 50%+ of your fans who are NOT left wing nut jobs??

[Kyle Taylor Lucas]

I have been impatiently waiting, as have so many of my contemporaries, for Jay Leno's new show. We're all still angry that the network let him go for the red-headed pea-brain Conan Obrien. We can't stand Obrien's juvenile attempts at humor.

It is so good to have Jay back!

As an example of the class act that is Jay, tonight he joked about Native Americans and the Redskins case. Contrasted to the idiot Obrien who last night ridiculed American Indians, Jay Leno's joke was about how the history of U.S. failed promises to Native Americans.

Life is good, again, now that Jay's back!

[Raleigh]

NBC, what where you thinking of making Conan the new Tonight Show host? Honestly, who does he know in the business that actually gives him a job?

Why???? Hes so misable. Thank god you brought back Leno though. Nice save.

[Stephanie]

I hope Jay Leno can help NBC in their rankings, and also put on a good TV show. He's got the fan base from his previous show so he just needs to take it to the next level. http://www.newsy.com/videos/death_of_the_american_actor

[Tim]

I'm continually shocked and nearly embarrassed that any functional human being can sit through 5 minutes of Jay Leno's brain-dead, humorless, dog-and-pony show. It's the same as the mindbogglingly successful Ellen. Vapid, wit-free, lowest-common denominator time wasters.

[ustimes]

I'll never understand who Jay pissed off. He has had stellar ratings all his years. He's the classiest of all the hosts. He never whined. He's had one wife, that he adores. Maybe that's the problem. Not enough controversy. Because he has never been asked to host the Oscars, Emmys, Globes. The Oscar snub is because "he's only into news issues" yet they had Jon Stewart and Letterman host the Oscars and what did we get? ZZZZzzzzzzzz.

On top of that, he was very very seldom nominated for best talk show yet he continued to turn in ratings that others, like Letterman, couldn't have unless he slept with half of his staff...or there was a controversy.

Get a clue, Hollywood. Controversies come and go. And audiences get really bored with them. But guys like Jay, a real class act, will always have an audience if you put him where he belongs.