What will be the next dynamic Dodger pitcher leg injury?

With Chad Billingsley slipping on icy ground and breaking his leg last November and Vicente Padilla inviting a bullet into his leg this November, I'm eager to know what interesting leg injury will befall a Dodger pitcher next November.

Here are some scenarios:

1) Hiroki Kuroda sprains knee trying to slow down Jet Ski after it skips onto shore.

2) George Sherrill flung off merry-go-round at amusement park, lands with leg twisted in funnel cake machine.

3) Scott Elbert's leg crushed by reference texts when bookshelf comes unloosened from moorings during Library of Congress tour.

I might not have every possibility covered, so if there's anything I've missed. ...

Comments

[Eric Stephen]

Since I already put this on Twitter...

Belisario sprains ankle when he trips on curb while being asked to walk in a straight line (too soon?)

[DL]

Cory Wade breaks a toe after Broxton steps on his foot.

Clayton Kershaw suffers deep wounds and lacerations on his leg after being mauled by a bison.

Jon Broxton's leg eaten by Andruw Jones.

[kinbote]

Eric Stults fractures his femur climbing out of the doghouse.

[Phenomenal Smith]

Broxton trips on bear trap outside Matt Stairs' home. Walks into home anyway to show he has no fear.

[Humma Kavula]

Ramon Troncoso, accidentally transported back in time, is conscripted to fight in World War I. After stepping on a mine, he is relatively unhurt, but his minor injuries are not treated and his leg develops gangrene and is amputated.

Then scientists discover a way to transport him back to modern day. But not, of course, replace his leg.

[Humma Kavula]

And now, LAT'd.

I don't disagree with the points made by Jon or Kevin. I know a fan boycott would not be effective, and because of that, it's probably just spite.

So let me rephrase. At what point would the Dodgers' management so disgust you that you felt you could no longer attend the games?

I'm not sure how far I want to go with this argument. I'm mostly playing devil's advocate here. But bear with me:

It appears that right now, the Dodgers are intentionally sacrificing their future in order to finance their owners' lavish lifestyles today. Every business should turn a profit, and if the Dodgers' revenues couldn't support building infrastructure for the future, that would be one thing. But that's not what is happening here. Instead, the Dodgers aren't investing in Latin America or in the draft or signing their core players to long-term deals... And all not because the team can't afford it, but because the team can't afford both those investments AND an owner who is taking money out of the team.

We all enjoy winning now while we're winning now, but if the choices the Dodgers are making now are affecting whether they will win later, is that something you're comfortable supporting with your entertainment dollars? Or is that something you just chalk up to being a fan -- is ownership greed/stupidity just one of the burdens you take on when you follow a team?

That's about as far as I want to go with this argument. I'm not sure it holds any water at all. Please feel free to weigh in, because I'm interested in others' points of view, but I'll drop it here.

[bhsportsguy]

Jonathan Broxton gets kicked in the legs by angry wheelchair users as he tries to run by them on their ramp in an attempt to avoid the Stairs.

[Jon Weisman]

There is a point where I'd stop watching Dodger baseball, but it would relate to issues much greater than owner incompetence.

[bhsportsguy]

Humma - the problem is we really just don't know if any of this is true. Even the LA Times article can't nail down the key answers. Yes, it is true that the team has not spent money on international signing bonuses, I will grant you that. On the long term signings of younger players, two years ago, someone might have paid Russell Martin, a Joe Mauer type contract, how would that look now.

Also, the Dodgers were not really put in a position where they had to extend anyone until this off-season. And if those players want to give the Dodgers options on their free agent years (like Longoria did), maybe they'll listen. Generally, you are not saving a whole lot on the first arbitration year regardless of when you make that deal.

[Bob Hendley]

James McDonald injures left knee trying to get the knack of the merengue.

[Eric Stephen]

It would take a lot for me to give up watching the Dodgers. I haven't even completely ditched the Raiders, and they don't have nearly the stronghold on my heart that the Dodgers do.

[nsxtasy]

>> Aside from Kershaw, 2004, 2005 and 2006 are looking like really unimpressive drafts

That's like saying, "Aside from Albert Pujols, the Cardinals infield looks really unimpressive", or "Aside from Tim Lincecum, the 'ants rotation looks really unimpressive". :)

[bhsportsguy]

Heck, I don't even watch every Laker game and I consider myself as much of fan of them as I do the Dodgers. To me, its all about the regular season, it is something that fills the time and it is hard to believe whomever owns the team and whomever plays on the team would really change that aspect for me. Now, would I probably go to less games, perhaps. But that will probably have more to do with cost in money and time rather than actual interest.

[nsxtasy]

Hiroki Kuroda is hit by a broken bat with Rusty Ryal at the plate.

[Craig88USC]

It would take some type of mental disorder for me to ditch the Dodgers.

Or a cure.

Chad breaks both ankles trying to avoid a rushing Prince Fielder
right after he plunks him between the shoulders. ;)

[Marty Leadman]

Joe Beimel shreds hand on broken bar glass. Wait, what?

[DL]

That's like saying, "Aside from Albert Pujols, the Cardinals infield looks really unimpressive", or "Aside from Tim Lincecum, the 'ants rotation looks really unimpressive".

Bad analogy. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect more than one serviceable major leaguer to be produced from three consecutive amateur drafts.

Especially when the guy doing the drafting had such a good track record in the years just prior to that.

[Kevin Lewis]

Humma,

The hardest part would be determining when that is actually happening. It seems like any time an owner doesn't go after a deal because of money you could make that argument.

[Marty Leadman]

Clayton Kershaw breaks spine while skiing down Sonny Bono Memorial Trail.

[jujibee]

Wouldn't Kuroda count as an international sign? I believe he's getting paid 13 mil per year for 3 years, or does he not count because he didn't go into the farm system?

[underdog]

The Dodgers' bullpen, after embarking on a team-building exercise that involved a hike through the Sierras, inadvertently re-enacts the Donner Party disaster and the trek ends with everyone eating everyone. Surviving member Broxton is then devoured by a cougar (the real kind).

No wait, that's silly.

What really happens is that Cory Wade, disappointed that his time in the Dodger pen peaked so fast, hires Padilla's bodyguard to take out Ramon Troncoso.

[Alex41592]

They all should be scared because of the 'Rule of Threes'!

[Horace Andy]

I think they were talking about amateur international signings. Kuroda, of course, was already a pro in Japan.

[Marty Leadman]

Broxton walks into a bar and orders a drink. The bartender says "We don't get too many pansy closers in here."

Broxton says "At these prices I'm not surprised."

The bartender then breaks Broxton's legs.

[SG]

Mark Loretta (bullpen specialist) is injured by Pip the Mighty Squeak in a freak circus accident.

[MFC521]

Broxton breaks his leg in an attempt to run away from Matt Stairs? (Too soon?)

[SaMo]

Randy Wolf goes to court to get his name officially changed to Ray Wolf, so as to remove the ND from his name and end his penchant for getting No Decisions in games where he pitches well. As the judge is banging his gavel to confirm the name change, it splinters and sends shards of hickory deep into Wolf's calf muscle. Wolf removes the splinters, saying "just a flesh wound."

But three weeks later, the scar won't heal. Instead, it fills with pus, causing excruciating pain. Wolf visits the emergency room, where he is diagnosed with a Xavier-Paulesque staph infection, requiring surgery to save the calf muscle.

He's fine by opening day, but his market value is so depleted that he has to sign another incentive-laden contract with the Dodgers.

[Bob Hendley]

OT, So if the team is taken over by MLB does that mean we get to have Frank Robinson manage?

[nsxtasy]

>> Randy Wolf goes to court to get his name officially changed to Ray Wolf, so as to remove the ND from his name and end his penchant for getting No Decisions in games where he pitches well.

Bravo!

[Bob Hendley]

Kinbote, we're all just carpetbaggers on this planet. : )

Posted by: Craig88USC

Actually, we are all indigenous. (except for those pod people).

[Jon Weisman]

Bill James predicts improved Manny Ramirez in 2010: http://bit.ly/4uPi95

[BlueCrewBruin]

Posted by: Bob Hendley | November 04, 2009 at 01:03 PM

Speaking of things that would make one stop watching the Dodgers, someone better delete that comment before Mr. Smith sees it.

[Bob Hendley]

BlueCrewBruin,

Mr. Smith is an artist. He produces some of his best stuff from anguish. A happy PS is no fun.

[PismoBruce]

Looking at that picture of Pedro in his Dodger uni makes me want to hurl. I still want to smack DuhLino, and I am normally not a violent person.

Maybe I could send him to the range with Vicente

[Horace Andy]

Vincente Padilla decides to finish the job and properly shoot himself in the foot.

[Ken Noe]

Scott Elbert requires surgery for a mysterious leg ailment. Embittered and addicted to Vicodin, he nonetheless becomes a genius at diagnosing other pitcher's problems with the help of three rookies who oddly put up with his emotional abuse.

[Craig88USC]

The most highly sought after running back
in southern California history suffers a terrible
knee injury...undergoes arthroscopic surgery but
fully recovers and transfers out to become a Bruin.

Could happen says Norm Chow.

[Jack]

At Manny's age, how much can you legitmately expect?

[Bob Hendley]

Fireballing Kenley Jansen continues to impress and sticks with the big club after ST. However, Honeycutt concerned about control issues and mounting walks has Jansen start pitching from a crouch. In a game against the fillies, with Jansen working from the stretch Werth steal 2nd, 3rd and home. And Torre breaks Honeycutt's leg.

[Jonny (TAFKAJ)]

Vicente Padilla sprains knee trying to escape a determined Jamie McCourt in hot pursuit.

She's trying to marry her way back into the organization, and finds herself taken with his charm and "boyish good looks".....

[Craig88USC]

I like the #1 horse (Remember Mike) in the

8th at Oak Tree today for a couple of reasons.

[El Lay Dave]

While filming another Subway commercial for the Taiwan television market, Hong-Chih Kuo, distracted by an argument regarding the Pinyin and Wade-Gilles transliteration systems, slips on a fallen dollop of mayonnaise rendered extra-oily by the hot Klieg lights and sprains his right ankle in the ensuring fall.

[kinbote]

I just typed "leg injuries" into Google and this page was the #4 hit out of 7,220,000. Cool!

[sarcastro]

"Bill James predicts improved Manny Ramirez in 2010: http://bit.ly/4uPi95"

Since I am not a big fan, I would GLADLY admit the error of my way if this works out.

As far as the boycott goes, I absolutely, positively would go along with that at a certain point- which we are currently nowhere near, at least not yet. But I see it like this- I happily spend hundreds of dollars (which is literally like millions and millions to the McCourts) to support my team, but in return, I expect those in charge to do their best to ensure we get our money's worth. The one silver lining- and I'm desperate for a silver lining here- is that NO ONE will buy the, "Well, we can't sign ALL of the kids" argument anymore- not that anyone should have bought into it in the first place, but now, the McCourts can't even THINK of using it. It's lame to begin with, as I'm sure Padre fans, Indian fans, and Pirates fans (for 17 years!) can attest to. Building around a core is how you end up at or near the top perennially. The only proof you need of that is watching the two teams that will be playing tonight.

[Craig88USC]

At Manny's age, how much can you legitmately expect?

Posted by: Jack | November 04, 2009 at 01:53 PM

-That he will be the best hitter on the team. Fair enough? :)

[kinbote]

So, who are the "core" of this team? You have to start with Ethier & Kemp. Then I'd add Kershaw, Bills, & Broxton. I also consider Martin & Loney part of the same group. (We can even throw in Kuo.) Are these eight players good enough to be build a championship team around? I think so.

[Craig88USC]

I love the Dodgers "core" of young and veteran players, thank you very much. :)

Aren't we one of the TOP FOUR teams in all of baseball?

[AENewman]

top four in all of baseball? depends on whether you are a proponent of the AL is better than the NL theory

[nsxtasy]

>> At Manny's age, how much can you legitmately expect?

When Barry Bonds was 38, he hit 45 HR, .341 BA, .529 OBP, .749 SLG, and 1.278 OPS.

Oh wait, bad example... :)

[Eric Enders]

Speaking of things that would make one stop watching the Dodgers, someone better delete that comment before Mr. Smith sees it.

I'm pretty sure Phenomenal Smith would approve of the post just above that, though -- the one where somebody legally gets the letters "ND" removed from their name.

[Craig88USC]

I think it's like this, for now...

1. NYY

2T. Phil
2T. LAD

4T. LAA
4T. Bos

6. Col
7. StL
8. SF

[jim hitchcock]

Bison breaks an ankle stepping in a prairie dog hole?

[Eric Enders]

I'm late to this party, but I just wanted to note that I thought Jon's last post on the farm system was absolutely fantastic. For me, though, there was never any reason the Dodgers should be given the benefit of the doubt -- nor, really, any doubt to give them the benefit of. The Carlos Santana transaction was the breaking point, a kind of Grabowski Principle for team owners. Once you make a move so inexcusable that not even the most dedicated team apologist bending over backwards can explain it away, you've squandered any goodwill as team owners. That move -- whose only possible motive was pure greed -- only served to reinforce our other observations about scrimping on international signings and over-slot draft bonuses.

So the McCourt divorce process, during which they seem to have shocked so many with their greediness at the expense of their team, has not affected my opinion of them at all. It only reinforced the opinion I already had.

[Eric Stephen]

Building around a core is how you end up at or near the top perennially. The only proof you need of that is watching the two teams that will be playing tonight.

This was most certainly true for the Yankees through probably the last time they went to the World Series (2003), but I don't think that can be said anymore. But, as always, the Yankees are really a special case, and are hard to compare with the rest of MLB.

[Craig88USC]

If I'm Charlie, after the win tonight...

I'm startin' Cliff Lee in GAME 7 because

Cole Hamels has completely lost it.

[Jon Weisman]

My only problem with Santana as smoking gun is that as far as I know, no one in the Dodger or Indian organizations has ever gone on record confirming the cash-for-catchers program.

But it certainly has become accepted as fact, to an extent I now fond hard to ignore.

[WBB]

Whatever Vicente Padilla's shortcomings, at least he's not Ángel Villalona.

[Eric Enders]

Bill James predicts improved Manny Ramirez in 2010: http://bit.ly/4uPi95
Posted by: Jon Weisman | November 04, 2009 at 01:24 PM

Although Josh Rawitch's press release made much of the notion that James expects Manny to have "a big comeback year," that's not really correct. James actually projects Ramirez to have a slightly worse OPS. Whatever improvement he's predicting is based solely on Manny playing more games in 2010 than in 2009.

[PineTar]

"At what point would the Dodgers' management so disgust you that you felt you could no longer attend the games?"

My father already hit that point...when Ramirez wasn't punished - or even criticized - in any way, shape, or form for his steroid use.

[SaMo]

If a bison breaks its leg, do you have to shoot it, like you do with horses?

[Deuces are Wild]

Wait a minute!
I'm starting to see a pattern here.
Billingsley gets tattooed in the last Dodger game of the 2008 season (NLCS Game 5) then proceeds to break his leg in a weird fashion.
Padilla gets tattooed in the last Dodger game of the 2009 season (NLCS Game 5) then proceeds to shoot (or get shot?) on the leg in a weird fashion.

This is a curse!
The NLCS Game 5 loser curse?
The season-ender losing pitcher curse?
I don't know, but if we're down 3-1 in next year's NLCS, I'm not sending Kershaw out to pitch.

[Craig88USC]

You know what I find inexcusable? Mosquitoes.

[bhsportsguy]

I think its become fact since the circumstantial evidence is that the Dodgers other player in the deal was at best a middle reliever (albeit one who many thought would be able to succeed at the MLB level). And again, when you deal a catcher that can hit, for a player who is in the last few months in his contract and the other team picks up his salary, lots of people are going to make that leap.

A lot of it as to do with the player received, no one ever brings up the Manny deal since it was well known that Boston was going to have to pick up some if not all of that salary in order to move him plus Manny had a no-trade clause in his pocket to use if he wanted to exercise it.

[jq]

Broxton tearing an ACL while eating his tenth breakfast burrito.

[Craig88USC]

PineTar, tell you Dad that Manny got suspended.

That should do it, my friend. :)

[Eric Stephen]

My father already hit that point...when Ramirez wasn't punished - or even criticized - in any way, shape, or form for his steroid use.

I could have sworn those games from May 7 to July 1 were absent one dreadlocked outfielder. Were the Dodgers supposed to punish Manny beyond that?

[Craig88USC]

Next time, we shave his head! ;)

[kinbote]

Some Lambo Thoughts from Fangraphs: http://bit.ly/3zncs5

[Eric Enders]

Also, Manny wasn't criticized in any way, shape, or form when he got busted? Do I really need to post the results of a Google News search?

[Craig88USC]

Who's World Series hot goin' into tonight...

Chase Utley 6 for 18
Jayson Werth 5 for 17

Hideki Matsui 5 for 9
Johnny Damon 8 for 21
Derek Jeter 8 for 22

[Terry A.]

While jogging with Nomar Garciaparra, Darren Dreifort and Tony Abreu, Dodger pitcher Jeff Weaver's leg is crushed by an anvil that falls from the clear blue sky.

[CanuckDodger]

bhsportsguy,

In reference to a comment you made in the last thread, Broxton was actually a 2nd round pick, not a supplemental 1st rounder.

[Craig88USC]

Per STATS:

Andrew Legend Pettitte is 5-7 in 18 starts on THREE days rest.

I'm rootin' for Pedro Jaime Martínez!

[Eric Enders]

This could be you, Clayton Kershaw:
http://tinyurl.com/yasb4wu

[tleonp]

Is anyone really surprised by the McCourt Revelations....
The fact that they were leveraged beyond the hilt? Nope.
The fact that Jamie was paid exorbitantly beyond all possible rationale for job titles she was unqualified for? Nope.
The fact that the McCourts dunned the ballclub for everything up to (and maybe including) Botox treatments and two Cialus bathtubs? Nope.
The fact that instead of investing in their business, they have used it as kind of an ATM to withdraw a yearly income at the expense of long term success? Nope.

This is a man who has never actually run a business. He has built a fortune on borrowing against property equity. More power to him. However, expecting him to build and maintain an actual ENTERPRISE is unrealistic. That expectation ignores the pattern of this man's life.

Somebody once pointed out to the great Speaker of the House, Sam Rayburn, that the Kennedy Administration was cornering the market on the great young minds of Harvard Law. Old Sam said, "Yep, they have. But I'd feel a hell of a lot more comfortable if one of 'em had run for Sheriff just once". That's how I've always felt about ol' Frank & Jamie: I wish that at some point in their lives they had run a Burger King or a car wash or a software start up or.....SOMETHING that would provide confidence that they could run an enterprise.

[Maddz]

I have been thinking all day of something to do with Charlie Haeger, and I'm coming up with goose eggs. Today is not my day.

[Humma Kavula]

Of the five batting lines on Inside the Dodgers, I find Manny's the least interesting. All Manny's says is that in 2010, Manny will be Manny.

The other lines, however, have something to say:

Matt Kemp 573 99 23 91 32 .311 .873
Andre Ethier 560 85 24 89 5 .288 .868
Russell Martin 533 80 12 71 13 .272 .768
Casey Blake 517 72 18 68 3 .257 .762

Matt Kemp improves his OPS by more than 25 points but hits three fewer home runs... I know it's just a (meaningless?) projection, but my gut -- and remember, I know nothing about anything -- says that Matt turns some of the doubles into home runs.

James is getting ripped in a comment on ItD for his Ethier projection, even though James basically predicts the same year Ethier had last year, when he wasn't even as good as he was in 2008 (tho in fewer at bats).

The Casey Blake prediction is the scariest one. It throws into sharp relief just how the guy had a career year this year. If he drops 70 points in OPS, the team will have to make that up somewhere. Considering the decline in offense at 2B as well, and the fact that -- as James predicts -- we cannot expect major steps forward from Ethier and Kemp, that leaves only three options: Furcal, Martin, and Loney. Furcal maybe can put up something closer to his career average, but between the injury risk and any possible slump, I don't know that it's likely. So the likely declines at 3B and 2B have to come from 1B and C. James does predict Martin to put up numbers closer to his 2008, which would be OK by me... I would be very interested in seeing James's projection for Loney.

[PineTar]

It's probably late, but I thought I'd join in the fun:

Kuroda steps on piece of gum and cannot get un-stuck.

Ramon Troncoso visits Italy in the off-season, and the Leaning Tower of Pisa finally falls….on his leg.

Kuo undergoes Tommy-John surgery on his knees. He recovers, blows out his knee again. Has another Tommy-John knee surgery. He recovers, only to pitch every OTHER OTHER day.

While shopping at Macys, Bellasario gets shoelaces stuck in the escalator and mangles his right foot. His teammates can no longer work with (or even look at) him as he is now literally fugly from head to toe.

James McDonald finally agrees to surgically correct his webbed feet…the doctor cuts much too far/deep. During recovery he learns to pitch with his abnormally long toes…and with success! He becomes the first hand/foot switch pitcher with a killer pinky-baller and adopts the nickname ‘The Claw.’

Clayton Kershaw gets down on one knee to propose to his long-term girlfriend. He gets a splinter on said knee. Infection ensues. He can no longer pitch out of stretch, so now when he pitches, he just never allows a MOB.

Broxton develops a case of athlete’s foot that not even tough-acting Tinactin can cure. He is so strong that he itches holes into his feet.

While trying to negotiate peace in the Middle East, Billingsly is thrown a grenade pitch way inside…he ducks, but forgets to cover and his leg is wounded. He can no longer pitch, not due to the leg injury, but PTSD.

[PineTar]

It's probably late, but I thought I'd join in the fun:

Kuroda steps on piece of gum and cannot get un-stuck.

Ramon Troncoso visits Italy in the off-season, and the Leaning Tower of Pisa finally falls….on his leg.

Kuo undergoes Tommy-John surgery on his knees. He recovers, blows out his knee again. Has another Tommy-John knee surgery. He recovers, only to pitch every OTHER OTHER day.

While shopping at Macys, Bellasario gets shoelaces stuck in the escalator and mangles his right foot. His teammates can no longer work with (or even look at) him as he is now literally fugly from head to toe.

James McDonald finally agrees to surgically correct his webbed feet…the doctor cuts much too far/deep. During recovery he learns to pitch with his abnormally long toes…and with success! He becomes the first hand/foot switch pitcher with a killer pinky-baller and adopts the nickname ‘The Claw.’

Clayton Kershaw gets down on one knee to propose to his long-term girlfriend. He gets a splinter on said knee. Infection ensues. He can no longer pitch out of stretch, so now when he pitches, he just never allows a MOB.

Broxton develops a case of athlete’s foot that not even tough-acting Tinactin can cure. He is so strong that he itches holes into his feet.

While trying to negotiate peace in the Middle East, Billingsly is thrown a grenade pitch way inside…he ducks, but forgets to cover and his leg is wounded. He can no longer pitch, not due to the leg injury, but PTSD.

[tleonp]

By the way, re: Manny Ramirez...

He was punished more severely for banned substance use than any athlete in American professional sports history. He will never get back what he lost, and I'm not just talking about the money.

The Bill Plaschke's of the world apparently will be satisfied at nothing less than human sacrifice in the town square at dawn. I too am in favor of this practice. Except I would reserve this punishment for rotund, overwraught, emotionally manipulative sportswriters looking to pander to the lowest common denominator. Meet you in the town square, Bill.

[das411]

Freddy Garcia out for the season after he Repkos himself into the OF wall/random truck of equipment/a charging Bison while shagging flies...

[Horace Andy]

Humma great points. 2B is the other place to get offense, but that will be very difficult short of Uggla.

[Horace Andy]

From FanGraphs link:

it becomes more likely that he [Manny] could spend time on the disabled list in ‘10. Lambo could be one of the first players in line for playing time should that happen.

That would seem to be too soon but who knows?

[regfairfield]

Also keep in mind that Bill James projections are known to be way optimistic.

[Humma Kavula]

Also keep in mind that Bill James projections are known to be way optimistic.

As my people say: oy.

[Xeifrank]

The Xeifrank College Football Playoff System (XCFPS) has been updated to show which eight teams would be in the playoffs if the season were to end today. Of course, the season does not end today and there are still a handful of meaningful games left to play, so this is more for entertainment purposes at this point in the season. Realistically 6-8 teams have a shot at the BCS title, whereas in the XCFPS around 16 (possibly more) teams would.

Here is the current breakdown:

Invited Teams
- Florida (SEC Leader)
- Texas (Big 12 Leader)
- Boise St (WAC Leader)
- Cincinnati (Big East)
- Iowa (Big 10 Leader)
- Oregon (Pac 10 Leader)
- TCU (Mountain West Leader)
- Alabama (At Large)

Playoff Matchups
#5 Cincinnati vs #4 Iowa
#8 Oregon vs #1 Florida
#6 TCU vs #3 Texas
#7 Boise St. vs #2 Alabama

[jujibee]

Posted by: regfairfield | November 04, 2009 at 03:43 PM

It's going to be a long year if you are right about the James norm and those predictions are on the optimism side of what will happen. Personally, I think every one of his predictions will be beat by our guys unless the injury bug hits. I can't see Kemp regressing from what he did this year, especially considering how he finally started to mash the ball in the later part of the year. Ethier might digress a little bit from this year, but I still think he can put up another 30 + homeruns this year. A full year of Manny without the mid-year distraction should also produce more than 30 HRs, but we'll see.

[regfairfield]

They seem kind of right. Ethier regresses a bit after a peak age 27 year, Blake takes a hard regression after a career year at 36, Russ builds up a little, Kemp gets a who knows since there's no real measurement for toolsy guys.

The Bill James system overall doesn't have a ton of credibility, so I wouldn't worry too much about them.

[Humma Kavula]

I can't see Kemp regressing from what he did this year, especially considering how he finally started to mash the ball in the later part of the year.

I love the Bison, but that's not what happened. From Sept 1 until Oct 4, he hit .224/.266/.371/.637.

[Humma Kavula]

That said, I will go on record as predicting the Bison has his first 30-30 year next year with an OPS above 900.

I have pulled this out of the Morgenthau-York Accurate Statistics System.

[Eric Stephen]

I expect Kemp to improve as well, but that power surge at the end of the year came at a cost. Over the last third of the season (54 games), Kemp showed his best power of the season (.214 ISO power, compared to .175 in the first 54g and .190 in the 2nd 54g) but he also regressed in everything else.

Kemp over the Dodgers' last 54 games: .252/.293/.466

That said, Kemp's BABIP was just .272 over that stretch, compared to his career .361 BABIP. If we up Kemp's BABIP to .331 by turning a few outs (nine of them) into singles his final third of the season looks better: .296/.333/.510

[tleonp]

For next year...

1. Ethier is smack in the middle of his peak (ages 26-30). I would assume that barring injury, he is who he is, which is pretty good.
2. Unfortunately, Russell Martin is who he is as well.
3. One way or the other this is Loney's make or break year. He is young enough to become the kind of hitter we hope he will be (.400 OBP, .820-.850 OPS, with a high concentration of doubles and about 15-20 HRs). He has regressed however, and I am not optimistic. If there is a major move to be made, IMO it should be with an eye toward upgrading at 1B.
4. With Kemp, there is still so much upside. He is getting ready to enter his peak years, and he has been extremely productive. How much better can he be? A LOT! By improving his contact rate alone ALL of his numbers would rise. I think his LOW side is what he did in 2009. His high side, well..."What do you want Mary? The moon? I'll get a lasso and pull it down for you...."

[Phenomenal Smith]

Humma Kavula with a Schwarzeneggerian acrostic there.

[jim hitchcock]

Just great. I'm idiot enough to google` Morgenthau-York Accurate Statistics System', and all I get is a link to Humma's post...

[Jon Weisman]

New post up top.

[Humma Kavula]

Humma Kavula with a Schwarzeneggerian acrostic there.

When only the best in acrostics will do, remember one name: Schwarzenegger!

[68elcamino427]

Randy Wolf gives up any remaining hope that he might return to the Dodgers, the team he loves.
He goes back to the Dodgers clubhouse to retrive a few treasured lucky charms he left in his locker.
When exiting the clubhouse he trips on a bag of money Jamie McCourt has inadvertanly left laying in the hallway.
Randy suffers a dislocated right ankle and a compound fracture to his left leg, injuries so serious and needing so much rehab it effectively ends his MLB career.

[kjp]

I think you missed a couple.

(1) Billingsley's leg goes numb during countless hours spent on shrink's couch trying to determine why he has become the poster child for "pitcher as head case."

(2) Billingsley severely bruises leg hitting it with fastballs while practicing how to protect his hitters.

(3) Billingsley suffers crippling cramps in both legs while running from pressure.

[artieboy]

He wasn't a pitcher and its a few years late but I couldn't resist.

Pal Lo Duca "accidentally" breaks both legs not meeting this weeks vig!