The Hot Stove League Curmudgeon takes on the Chad Billingsley rumors

First, this reminder:

1) Rumors are not facts.

2) Teams and agents often float rumors to generate attention or to misdirect rivals. The media will report these rumors without much concern over how viable they are. The rumor is the news -- whether it comes to fruition or not is not the media's problem (or so the media have decided).

3) A report that agents, players or teams "were talking" is meaningless. People talk all the time. It doesn't mean anything will come of it.

4) Any rumor attributed to an anonymous source is particularly useless.

5) Making judgments about a general manager based on a rumor reflects poorly on the judge.

6) Many deals, if not most, are never rumored, but spring up out of the blue.

7) Many are eager to pass along rumors. If you are planning to post a rumor here, please check to see if it has been posted already. But whatever you do, don't take the rumors too seriously.

8) I'm not telling you not to have fun with the Hot Stove. Have fun! I'm just saying that from my experience here, people take the rumors way too seriously, discussion gets heated, and the fun goes away. And that's what I'd like to avoid.

- Your Friendly Hot Stove Curmudgeon

* * *

And now, starring in this year's kickoff event: Chad Billingsley.

Here's the first salvo, from Tim Kurkjian of ESPN.com:

The Dodgers need to acquire at least one topflight starting pitcher, but there is already speculation that they will not have enough money to re-sign left-hander Randy Wolf. If they don't have the money to improve the club, they might have to make a trade or two, and that has to begin with pitcher Chad Billingsley. For him to not make a start in the National League Championship Series -- but Hiroki Kuroda did, and Vicente Padilla made two -- means it's time for him to go.

If the Dodgers don't think Billingsley has the stomach to be a top-of-the-rotation guy, then they should trade him now for pitching help.

Next, John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus:

Starting pitching is always at a premium, and while [Roy] Halladay will be hotly pursued again, a number of younger starters are also available, including the Dodgers’ Chad Billingsley, the Brewers’ Dave Bush, the Orioles’ Jeremy Guthrie, the Phillies’ Kyle Kendrick, and the Twins’ Glen Perkins. Billingsley is the most intriguing of the group, as he is just 25 and pitched in the All-Star Game this season. However, he struggled so badly down the stretch that he was taken out of the rotation and left the Dodgers wondering if he might need a new start in another organization.

So, just to be clear, no one with the Dodgers is on the record as saying Billingsley should or will be traded. That's when you need the Hot Stove Curmudgeon checklist.

As for "it's time for him to go" and "he might need a new start in another organization," let's look at what the Dodgers have in Billingsley.

• 25 years old
• 3.55 career ERA (122 adjusted ERA, with 100 being average)
• Career average of 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings
• Had notoriously bad 2008 NLCS after forgotten good 2008 NLDS
• Legitimate All-Star in 2009 with a 3.38 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 125 1/3 innings in the first half
• Averaged 6 2/3 innings per start in the first half
• Suffered nagging leg injuries in second half, fouled up his mechanics and had his performance decline – highlighted by tendency to have one bad inning in a game after several good innings
• Despite all the complaining against him, still had 4.21 ERA after Aug. 1.

So what you have is a young pitcher who has been superb his entire career except for a short stretch in the second half of last season that coincided with injuries that aren't career-threatening.

Billingsley has made 100 starts in his major-league career, and the entire case against him rests on about 15% of them.

I don't care if you're old school or new school – if you think that meets the qualifications for the discard pile, I simply don't know how you field 25 guys to play baseball.

Billingsley should remain a Dodger next year, and in all likelihood – unless the Dodgers are bowled over by an unrealistic, unfathomable trade offer – he will.

Comments

[Phenomenal Smith]

Chad Billingsley is being lumped together with Dave Bush and Jeremy Guthrie?

[kene]

Lets hope they don't trade him. It doesn't make sense anyway. If the team is indeed cash strapped Billingsley will still make less than most starting pitchers.
Unless they plan on just putting McDonald and Elbert in the rotation and really going cheap.

What really cracks me up are all these online shrinks that say "Bills doesn't have the mental make up." They don't even know the guy. At the very least Bills is a guy for the middle of the rotation and a very good option at that.

[ceyheyjay]

Thank you again Mr. Weisman for being the voice of reason here. I have actually seen other sites that have stated "Rick Honeycutt has RUINED Chad Billingsley." And this was from someone claiming to be a Dodger fan. It blows me away how the first time a young player struggles a little bit, fans want to discard that player (see Loney, James; Martin, Russell; Broxton, Jonathan). Those same fans will have a fit if those players turn things around, and then don't show loyalty to the organization.

I don't mean to sound as if I'm belitting Dodger fans, because every sports team in every sport has these sort of fans. Dodger fans are no worse or better, but to think that Chad Billingsley should be shipped proves that you are either a BoSPiNite (someone who watches too much of the network commonly called ESPN) or you really don't understand the sport very well.

[Jack]

In any trade, its all about what you get back...not what you give up.

Trading Billingsley may be beneficial...but whom will the Dodgers get back for him?

[ceyheyjay]

Kene, you make a good point. In Billingsley's first season in the show he was awesome at getting out of trouble. If you look at the numbers, you'll notice his ERA was much, much, much lower than someone with the WHIP he had should have posted. I think that trend stayed pretty consistent for a while, until this year, it totally reversed on him. I don't know why, but I think Mr. Weisman's original post laid out some very realistic possibilities (the injuries leading to change in mechanics, etc). He pitched a no-hitter in the minors in a playoff series. He shut the Cubs down in the playoffs. For every struggle in his career in a "pressure" situation, there are multiple successes that seem to be quickly forgotten by some.

[dalegribel]

To trade him seems like another observer based overreaction. Yes, the Dodgers need a #1 starter, but that's no reason to think that Billingsley can't be a solid #2 at this point in his career and develop into a #1. The guy is 25 years old for crying out loud. For that matter, Kershaw can develop into a #1. Anyone remember Drysdale and Koufax.

Also, I seem to remember that at various points last season, there were calls to trade Kemp, Ethier, Loney and Martin, along with a mandate to send Kershaw down to AAA as he was too young and not ready.

Unless a team is prepared to spend over $200 million per season, building any sort of lasting winner takes time.

[xeifrank]

Trading Chad Billingsley because of anything that may have happened the last month or two of the season is not based on sound reasoning. Billingsley has a good enough track record that a week, month or even 2+ months of mediocre performance is to be nothing more than chalked up to small sample size.
vr, Xei

[cargill06]

Ned Colletti was doing his radio tour last week or two weeks ago. He was asked about getting a #1 pitcher and he responded with we have a couple guys on the roster that could fill that role, obviously talking about Kershaw. Than said something to the effect that people forget how good Chad Billingsley has been, and they just need to get him in the right state of mind and pitching like he's capable again. So, it sounds like management isn't down on him and I'd be shocked to see him moved.

[nsxtasy]

>> •Had notoriously bad 2008 NLCS after forgotten good 2008 NLCS

I think you meant, "...after forgotten good 2008 NLDS".

If so, feel free to delete this post after correcting yours...

[nsxtasy]

We aren't trading Billingsley. That would be downright foolish. For all the reasons mentioned above. And as Jon notes, all such mentions are pure conjecture by pundits and bloggers. Heck, I can make guesses too. That doesn't give them any less credibility than the folks making those guesses elsewhere in the media.

[nsxtasy]

I hear the Blue Jays are going to trade Roy Halladay to us for A.J. Ellis. Straight up, no cash or other players involved.

(We can always dream...)

[ceyheyjay]

I'm relatively new to posting on this site, and I don't often read beyond the original post, but if you don't mind me saying this, every single post so far on this subject is right on the money. Really good stuff. Maybe I should start reading the posts more often.

[Kevin Lewis]

I would approve a trade of Bills for Pujols. That is just as likely to happen as us trading Bills for some mediocre pitching. I think Chad's problems last season were all mechanical brought on by the leg problems. It will be fun to watch him dominate next year.

[Marty Leadman]

But we need a guy who's not afraid to come inside or hit someone when needed. Oh wait, we got one of those guys last year and he didn't hit anyone that I can remember.

[nsxtasy]

>> 4) Any rumor attributed to an anonymous source is particularly useless.

Equally useless is any rumor not attributed to any source at all. If you closely read the two quotes above, from Kurkjian and Perrotto, both fall into this category. So do most rumors. There are often signs that they have no basis; for example, they often include phrases like "there is already speculation" without an admission that the writer himself/herself is the one doing the speculating.

[Warren]

I could not agree more. There isn't a team in the league that would turn down a 25 year old who almost always gets you into the sixth inning with a chance to win. I don't think it was lack of faith that kept him from starting in the postseason. I think Torre had a nagging suspicion that he wasn't healthy. Why send him out when he wasn't 100% and have his confidence get wrecked? The media would have killed him if he had blown up against Philly two post seasons in a row.

I'll take Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda, and two 4-5 type starters against any rotation in the west. Starting pitching didn't cost the Dodgers a World Series appearance. Situational hitting did.

[nsxtasy]

There is already speculation that Toronto will trade Roy Halladay to the Dodgers for A.J. Ellis.

:)

[SteelMohawk]

I like MLBTradeRumors, predictions on what is going to happen (minus Lackey to the Yankees). They see Garland, Bedard, and Pedro Feliz ending up with the Dodgers.

[twerp]

A bit OT--ceyheyjay, was it you who posted a while back about living in West TN and working for a small daily there? Interested because my background is West TN also.

If so, what city/paper?

Think there's a CeyHey here also, and he may have been the one who posted this

Anyway, thanks.

[356man]

If Bills has suddenly become a heap of manure then what team is going to give up "value" to acquire him? I just hope he doesn't go Rick Ankiel on us.

[regfairfield]

Completely unbelievable story: The Dodgers are trading AJ Ellis for something useful.

Totally believable story: The Dodgers are trading AJ Ellis to the Royals for something useful.

[Bill Haverchuck]

Pedro Feliz ending up with the Dodgers

The Feliz tastes like sad...

[nsxtasy]

>> I'll take Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda, and two 4-5 type starters against any rotation in the west.

I agree.
>> Starting pitching didn't cost the Dodgers a World Series appearance. Situational hitting did.

There were a multitude of causes of our NLCS loss. Poor hitting with RISP was one of them. Our starters and particularly our bullpen pitched poorly, quite the opposite of their performance during the regular season and NLDS.

[nsxtasy]

>> They see Garland, Bedard, and Pedro Feliz ending up with the Dodgers.

We're likely to sign one or two starters who won't cost an arm and a leg (pun intended), the kind of pitchers who would slot #4 or #5 in the rotation. Some of the inexpensive pitchers are inexpensive because of an injury history and the perception that they are risky. Bedard is one of these, along with Sheets, Duchscherer, and Harden. Garland may be inexpensive just because he's not as good as he was a few years ago.

Although he has played other positions, Feliz has played most of his career at third base. With Casey Blake signed through 2011, I don't see us signing a starting third baseman this winter.

[ceyheyjay]

Yea, twerp, that was me. I work at The Lauderdale Voice newspaper in Ripley, TN. If you look up small newspaper in the dictionary, we're it; and if you look up small town struggling badly in this economy, Ripley, TN is it.

[scrounger]

That was Felipe Lopez, not Pedro Feliz that MLBTR guessed we'd sign.

[DodgerBlueJeff]

Keep Billingsley and let him take his lumps. He will be a better pitcher down the line for it. $40 million coming 'off' the books and we cant sign a front line starter? SELL THE TEAM FRANK!! NOW!!

[Jon Weisman]

Breaking down the Rose Bowl race.

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac10/post/_/id/5042/breaking-down-the-pac-10-race

[Horace Andy]

Not Pedro Feliz, they predicted Felipe Lopez to the Dodgers along with Bedard and Garland.

I think the Dodgers should take a flyer on Bedard. If he's healthy (and yeah that's a big IF) he's a top flight starter.

[blue22]

I don't quite know why Lopez (who is a Type A FA along with Hudson, I believe) would be a target, but O-Dog is considered bench-fodder. Here's a Fangraphs article about the season Lopez just completed:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/felipe-lopezs-outstanding-season

[regfairfield]

Who besides Joe Torre thinks Orlando Hudson is a bench player?

[SteelMohawk]

Yeah I was wrong, I can see how those Phillies stay in the back of our relief pitchers' minds now. Sorry for the confusion.

[Jon Weisman]

New post up top.

[FT Ernst]

Good posts everyone

I was beginning to think the McCourts had sucked the life out of this board

Dodgers turned down AJ Ellis for Pujouls ; they wanted Wainwright added to the deal

[Victor]

Good article. But I have to disagree with most of my fellow Dodger fans. While I agree that Chad has a good track and he is a stud, the fact is that he doesn't have the mental make up to become a top flight pitcher. Kershaw, on the other hand, has the tools and mental make up to become that pitcher. People don't realize that the makeup of this current Dodger team is good, but I strongly believe that we have a championship caliber team. But our window is short. If Chad can't get his act together in the first half of the season and we have an oppurtunity to acquire Halladay: I say do it!

[Branch Rickey]

Well there seems to be agreement here that we shouldn't give up on Billingsley. But isn't it obvious that the Dodgers wouldn't trade him for prospects or a pinch hitter? I imagine they'd field offers for him and perhaps be willing to include him in a trade for a clear #1 starter. But I don't think it makes sense to even speculate that they're ready to get rid of him for the sake of clearing a roster spot.

On a related subject, I believe they are very down on Russell Martin. I also believe they offered him in a couple of trades over the summer and couldn't generate interest. I love Russell and I know how loved he has been here but I believe that the Dodgers don't believe he's likely to rebound.

[neoncactus]

Remember the Phillies won the World Series last year by having their core group of players who'd been together for a while (Utley, Howard, Rollins, Burrell), then Werth. Their pitching rotation was Hamels, really at that time no more experienced than Billingsley, Myers, Blanton, and Moyer. Where was their proven ace? And they still won the World Series. This year, they had Cliff Lee...and they lost.

Also, I keep hearing doom and gloom about the Dodgers financial situation because of the divorce. I'd like to know where they're getting their info. The Dodgers are not in the same situation with the Padres. More fan base, more merchandise sales, more TV revenue. Their payroll is around $100 million, which is outstanding for a large market club. The Cubs were for sale last year and had a payroll well over $100 million. I would think the Dodgers situation would be more like the Cubs than Padres. Unless the court gives the team to Jamie and then all that extra money will go to building little league fields.

[Casey]

Totally agree with your assessment, Jon. The hand-wringing about Billingsley's second half was so overblown. Chances are, his struggles wouldn't have been as noticeable if the Dodgers didn't have a rotation made up entirely of #4 pitchers.

[artieboy]

>>Billingsley should remain a Dodger next year<<

Absolutely!

How can anyone say the Billingsley is not tough. He spends his winters in balmy (?)Pennsylvania(?)

[JIM McVEIGH]

So, according to Tim Kurkjian the Dodgers do not have the money to sign Randy Wolf who is a third or fourth starter on a good staff, with the yankees he is in triple a. If Frank, all $1.2 billion of him can not play or WILL NOT (PAY) PLAY or run with the big dogs, it is time to get back on the porch, where he belongs. Sell the team to some one who wants to win. You do not win by getting some one else to pay your players salaries (Boston picking up Manny`s in 08). Hey Frank just go to Japan and get some over the hill pitcher or scan the disabled list and pick up another broken down pitcher We, three million fans strong are dumb enough to still come to Dodger stadiun. The yankees have proven, you make money by spending money. And Frank, just think you could buy another house. SELL THE TEAM TO REAL DODGER!

[jq]

Jack is on the money.

Depends what we could get back.

It's pretty clear that Kershaw is the ace of the future. Kuroda is solid. MacDonald still has a chance. But if there is a package trade with Billingsly in it, the Dodgers should and would definitely look into it.

Personally, I don't see a strong will and fire in Chad. No swagger (and by that I don't mean showboating, but confidence). He may get it someday. He tanks this coming year, then you would have lost an opportunity to have unloaded him during this winter.

They know him better, but this is his year, do or die. It'll be interesting, but regardless, we need a top shelf pitcher in this line up, stat!

[jq]

if Billz comes in training camp in shape then i'll be happy.

You too Brox!

why do these MLB players insist they can be successful when their uniforms look like over sized pillow covers when they're wearing them!

[Charles]

To all the dodgers Brass Trade Chad to Boston they will give a young Michael Bowden in return. Either that or just buyout his contract....He sux!

[the booch]

i would trade him for prince fielder and no one else. (you did say an "unrealistic" trade offer correct/)

[Andrew Shimmin]

If the Dodgers did ditch Russ Martin, I'd follow him to wherever he landed.

[SV Narine]

How is it Bills doesn't have the "mental make-up" because he was shelled in teh NLCS last year, and Kershaw, who got shelled this year in the NLCS, is suddenly the savior of the world? No question about Kershaw's make-up. All of this "mental make-up" garbage stems from Chad not wanting to throw at Phillies last year. It's insane.

[ben]

billingsley having an off year wasn't totally unexpected (see 2009 Verducci effect)...lets see what happens for the first half of 2010. I think he'll be fine and be a good #2

[Logan F.]

I think we should trade bills and martin to the Blue jays for Halladay and Barajas....We get the benefit of the doubt

[Alby]

Phillies fan here. My jaw hit the floor when I read Kurkjian's comment -- it's time for him to go? Coletti did exactly the right thing giving your young position players like Kemp and Ethier time to develop. Loney showed in the NLCS the way he's capable of breaking out the same way in '10. If the front office would show patience with faster-developing position players, why on earth would they give up on a young pitcher, under team control for several more years, because he has a couple of injury-related bad months?

Now if he had a habit of driving drunk or shooting himself every offseason in Central America, that would be another story.

[eeebayou]

Per the KC Star:

"One rumor to watch: A deal sending second baseman Alberto Callaspo to the Los Angeles Dodgers for catcher A.J. Ellis, a 28-year-old rookie who currently projects as a backup to Russell Martin following the anticipated free-agent departure of veteran Brad Ausmus."

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/royals/story/1557629.html

[Blue Jays Fan]

Barajas is a free agent

[Kike]

I know Bills has struggled mightly but lets give him the benifit of the doubt. Bieng how expensive pitching is these days and how McCourt will not spend on a number 1 pitcher because thanks too Colletti signing of Schmidt... I would be more content if we signed Wolf Padilla and Harden giving us a solid rotation of :

Kuroda
Wolf
Bills
Kershaw
Harden
Padilla

6 Man rotation

Then

go ahead and sign DeRosa to play some 2b and start giving Dewitt some time on 2b to rest DeRosa and 3b to rest Blake and vice versa for DeRosa to play 3b..... Oh almost forgot. Lets pray for the baseball gods that Mark Cuban buys this team..........

[Kike]

Also might as well have Aj back up Martin and its time for Hu to be back up middle infielder instead of waisting money on over the hill back up players.

[Bob Raines]

I have to agree that the Dodgers won't be giving up on Bills yet. He probably needs to lose a little weight, get in better shape (remember the broken leg last winter?), and maybe grow some facial hair (that last suggestion is more for effect). I want to hear about how they're going to shore up the starting five; Kershaw, Kuroda, Bills, and then…?

[artieboy]

>>Phillies fan here.<<

Hey Alby congrats to your phillies for two fantastic years. I guess they were payback for 1977-78. Even though it hurts its another example of "what goes around, comes around" eventually.

We're just upset that its been 21 years since we've been in the fall classic. We fell into this belief that we could purchase players that other teams developed and that would ensure success. And here we are still waiting and hoping.

BTW did Aaron Rowand leave via free agency:? He picked a great time to leave. And in listening to Vinny he says the Giants are very disappointed in what they paid for.

[Don Perkins]

I really don't see Billingsley in a block buster deal because the Dodgers had the opportunity to include Billingsley in the package for Roy Halladay. Keith Law, from ESPN, said the deal could have been done if the Dodgers would give up Billingsley. Law further added that Billingsley was mentally scarred in NLCS game against the Phillies in 2008. In my opinion Billingsley just needs to clear his mind something similar to memory loss. Spring Training will be an important step in building Billingsley confidence. Last years second half of the season was a bump in the road and I expect Billingsley to fully recover.

[Brad]

I feel like I was watching a different team last season. Is everyone really this high on Chad Billingsley?

Not saying he sucks, but the reasons everyone wants to keep him are the same reasons he looks good in a trade. If something is there that would improve the club for 2010 at the cost of Billingsley, then I don't know how we don't do it. It would make more sense to trade Chad Billingsley than to trade 4 to 6 top prospects.

[Justin]

No way they trade Bills...