The future of the Dodgers with or without Kim Ng

Some won't care; others will be fraught with anxiety.

Dodgers assistant general manager Kim Ng, a highly valued team executive long expected to become the first female general manager in baseball, interviewed for the vacant Padres' position today, according to unsourced reports by Jon Heyman of SI.com.

Ng has interviewed for other general manager positions before and isn't necessarily the favorite to get this one (which incidentally could make her the boss of her former boss at the Dodgers, Padres executive vice president Paul DePodesta, who is not a candidate for the job). But she certainly has a fan club in Los Angeles that holds its breath each time she talks to another team.

Is there any chance Ng could ascend in Los Angeles? Dodger General Manager Ned Colletti and the Dodgers have a mutual option for 2010, and after winning three division titles and two National League division series in four years, Colletti's return for 2010 (and perhaps years to come) would seem to be a formality. What could disrupt it?

One scenario would be that with his stock high, Colletti asks for a contract extension that Dodger owners Frank and Jamie McCourt – whose marital separation became public this week amid indications they're about to fight for control of the team – are unable to grant. Colletti decides he can't sacrifice his future stability to the McCourts' divorce proceedings, and uses his high standing in the baseball community to get out of the Dodgers soap opera and take himself elsewhere (though, one assumes, not San Diego).

If you want to go completely hypothetical, you can consider the possibility that one of the McCourts (call me chauvinistic, but I'm thinking Jamie) wants to be the one to crown baseball's groundbreaking female GM. Then, there would be a disagreement over Colletti that would come down to one thing: Who has decision-making power with the Dodgers? The one in Colletti's corner, or the one in Ng's?  Given that Frank's chairman title seems to rank over Jamie's chief executive officer position, it would seem to be Frank would get to rule on this issue.

Either way, I'm shaking my head as I write all this. I'd say it's still about 99% likely that Colletti will return as Dodgers GM next season.

In a sense, this situation is a bit like the one NBC faced with late-night hosts Jay Leno and Conan O'Brien. Leno was the present, O'Brien the future, and the Peacock was at risk of losing either when their contracts expired. Ultimately, NBC worked out agreements that kept both, but in a way that was extremely disruptive to the network. It's probably only a matter of time before the Dodgers find they can't have the luxury of both Ng and Colletti – though of course it's significant whether that time amounts to one more month, one more year or even longer.

Now, I've gotten to this point without discussing the merits of Colletti and Ng – for good reason, because I'm not sure how much light I have to shed on this subject.

There's something very appealing about Ng – she seems incredibly bright and she's certainly put in her years in training. She has a great reputation in handling contract negotiations, particularly arbitration hearings. And I'll confess, I want the Dodgers to be groundbreakers too. But she's mostly a closed book. We don't know how different she would even be compared with Colletti. She might be a prospect like Clayton Kershaw was a prospect, but she's still a prospect.

Colletti is almost the opposite. After four years, we know what we get with him – at least we think we do. The days of him throwing five-year megacontracts to free agents seem to be gone, in favor of short-term if expensive deals. He is not someone who empties the farm system at a moment's notice in a trade, but he will give up future potential (Carlos Santana, Josh Bell) for present-day value.

I don't laud him for retaining the young core of the team: Kershaw, Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, Russell Martin, et al. Knowing not to dump those guys is like knowing not to show up to work in your underwear.

On the other hand, I can hardly hold back praise for the team he has built around the younger core. He has made a number of successful deals on the margins: from Takashi Saito and Joe Beimel in the past to Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf and George Sherrill this year, that in the aggregate become pretty hard to dismiss. Sure, I'm not looking forward 38-year-old third baseman Casey Blake in 2011, but there's no doubt he's been a valuable player this year beyond what he's getting paid.

Though he has made some truly objectionable decisions, Colletti has also made some moves that I disagreed with at the time but nevertheless paid off, so I am past the point of playing holier-than-thou. For all his sainted praise this season, Juan Pierre's contract was still a mistake, and surely not Colletti's last.  But neither Pierre, nor Andruw Jones or Jason Schmidt, define Colletti. He has hits to go with those misses. No GM will be perfect, and there are clearly worse ones than Colletti.

Honestly, there's another chapter to be written before we come to a firm conclusion about Colletti's value as a GM, and that's when the young Dodgers stars who have been earning from $400,000 to $4 million earn the service time that multiplies their salaries tenfold. That's when Collletti won't be able to pencil in low-paying stars in half his starting lineup anymore. There will be a host of difficult decisions to be made – the more of these guys Colletti wants to keep, the more difficulty he'll have overpaying to fill the gaps elsewhere, especially if the McCourts' travails lead to the team being put up for sale, with the budget for salaries locked down.

A World Series title this year would certainly help, but Colletti's performance in the coming seasons – seasons in which the McCourt marital problems will be casting much more than a shadow – will almost certainly be what determines his legacy.

But to bring this back to Ng, there is one more very important point to made. Colletti is the general manager, but he doesn't work alone. He has Ng, he has assistant general manager/scouting Logan White, he has a host of scouts and advisors, and he also no doubt has the McCourts weighing in on the biggest deals. (Manny Ramirez, anyone?) Yes, in most player transactions, the buck has stopped with Colletti since the end of 2005, but we really don't know how much of the past four years is uniquely Colletti.

All of this is a very, very long way of saying that for all we do know, there's too much we don't know to determine how costly it would be for the Dodgers to lose Ng (or, for that matter, White, himself a GM prospect in some circles). It's possible that we're risking letting a gem getting away in Ng, while many will justifiably wonder why on earth this is even a subject of conversation, given how well the Dodgers have been doing. I don't want the Dodgers to lose Ng, but then again, I don't entirely want my kids to grow up either. But grow up they will, and should.

If Ng leaves, I'll fear the Dodgers have lost a great executive. But I'll console myself with how well the Dodgers have done under the current regime, and with the knowledge that Ng deserves her moment in the sun, wherever that sun is determined to shine.

Comments

[SoSG Sax]

Nice, thoughtful piece, Jon. I'd hate to lose Ng, but let's just see how this, and the McCourt soap opera, turns.

[Hollywood Joe]

Bravo Jon - great balanced view

I am not sure what I feel about this latest news, but everytime I hear the news of Ng interviewing it makes me, um,...well...unsettled

but a part of me is always happy for her too

[dzzrtRatt]

Jon,

This sentence seems to have gotten garbled by editing:

"I don't laud him for retaining the young core of the team: Kershaw, Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, Russell knowing not to show up to work in your underwear."

If Russell showed up to work in my underwear, I would not know what to do.

[68clcamino427]

Ng will be a GM in San Diego when a snowball ...

[68clcamino427]

Russell is one of the strongest men in baseball.
His endurane is without question.

[Dodgers' Bill Russell > Celtics' Bill Russell]

Unfortunately whoever hires NG to be the GM will have to face the fact that at least for the 1st few years nobody around baseball will take her seriously. It will be similar to Depo only worse. She will encounter a lot of people like that Mets exec a few years ago.

[dodgerkramer]

As much as I respect Kim Ng, I can't think of one instance in the history of pro sports where a team greatly regretted the loss of a GM or a prospective GM.

I was sad when Jerry West left the Lakers, but they survived just fine.

Buzz Bavasi and Al Campanis were good GMs, but the Dodgers won a world title with Fred Claire.

I suppose the Royals probably wish John Schuerholz had stuck around a little longer. That's about the only good example I can come up with.

Then again, I'm only 32 years old and admittedly not a sports historian.

[Robert562]

Great post Jon.

[Jon Weisman]

Posted by: dzzrtRatt | October 17, 2009 at 10:30 PM

That is weird - I wonder how that happened.

[Jon Weisman]

" nobody around baseball will take her seriously. "

I am sure that's not true.

[Dodgers' Bill Russell > Celtics' Bill Russell]

You give these people too much credit then.

[Jon Weisman]

Well, first of all, what does that even mean? "No one will take her seriously." It's not as if DePo, the example you cite, had trouble getting deals done. As long as the Dodgers have value, people will take Ng very seriously.

Secondly, even assuming the requisite amount of chauvinism, the idea that everyone will laugh Ng out of the boys club is a relic of a distant time. Just because Bill Singer got drunk and made a slur hardly means everyone will. It's a little hard to imagine Theo Epstein, Brian Cashman (whom she worked with), Josh Byrnes and a host of others doing anything but treating her with respect.

Ng is a way better known commodity than DePodesta was when he took over the Dodgers. She has a sterling reputation. Like any rookie GM, she'll need to cut her teeth, but I think you're greatly mistaken about her ability to make herself be taken seriously.

[Jon Weisman]

Good Kuroda feature by Dylan Hernandez. http://bit.ly/2TpPk9

[Roberto]

" nobody around baseball will take her seriously. "

Not true at all.

[bhsportsguy]

Well, this is the right perspective. From the LAT article linked above.

Missing two months early in the year because of a strained side muscle or another three weeks after being hit in the head by a line drive Aug. 15 doesn't mean [Kuroda] was unlucky.

"If I were unlucky," [Kuroda] said, "I would have died."

[Andrew Shimmin]

I'd promote Colletti to open the GM spot for Ng. He could be Viceroy of Dodgerdom, then he and the McCourts could argue over which title outranked the others.

[louisinsf]

Jon great piece and I think this forshadows some very difficult times for the Dodgers going forward. I think the divorce and the decisions the Dodgers have to make on signing their young stars is the time when you want good smart management in place.

Dodger Kramer, while good or bad GM talent does not guarantee a championship in can set in motion opportunities for better players to come to your organization and eventually put you in a position to be a champion or even have a championship run.

There is no question that Bill Walsh as a coach and GM helped make the 49er's a championship team. I think Sherholtz in Atlanta made a big difference.

If McCourt is in a position and give how highly regarded Ng seems to be and how well she seems to work with Ned and Logan White, it would be good if they could all stay and be successful together. My impression in pro sports today is people like Kim Ng and Logan White are more important to a team's success than they might have been in years past.

[miketink]

I loved that Kuroda article, thank you Jon. It makes me wonder how (except for industrial might and the atom bomb) we won WWII.

Now on to grammar: as bh reprinted: " If I were unlucky," he said, "I would have died." Now this man who doesn't even speak English says "If I were..." Well, here at DT all I saw for many, many months was "If I was..." until twerp in response to an unpleasant poster who was violating rules and complaining about Jon floored me with a (correct) phrase I would never have the courage to use namely "If I were he..." speaking of Jon. If Kuroda and Tevye and Beyonce can say (and sing) "if I were" then why can't we all just
go along with them.

[Eric Enders]

Now this man who doesn't even speak English says "If I were..."

It's very likely the interview was conducted in Japanese, which Dylan Hernandez speaks.

Back in August, Kuroda gave Hernandez this quote:
"I always thought I wouldn't mind dying on a baseball field. But as I was being carried away, I thought, 'I don't want to die.' I thought that there would be nothing sadder than for me to die in my uniform, without my family there to see me off."

[K T]

I think I would like a GM by committee approach if we lose Colletti...Ng with her negotiation prowess and White with his ability to find diamonds in the rough...If colletti doesn't move on, promote him like Andrew says and that way everyone would be happy

[SteelMohawk]

I too would be devastated to see Ng go. Its like the annual Logan White departure news, its just scary. I some how feel comfortable with Colletti making decisions, when those two are putting in their two cents. Cant we send Colletti to SD for prospects or cash considerations?

[Old Dodger Fan]

I don't mean this to be a rule violation but I think people said that Condoleeza Rice would not be taken seriously either. They were wrong.

[bumsrap]

I don't trust Colletti yet so I don't think my worry of Ng making a bad trade would be any more than my worry about Colletti making a bad trade.

[Lex]

Jon,
Really a nice balanced post.
Lex

[Herchyzer]

I think that many, like I, have recently grown a lot more comfortable with Colletti as GM than we once were. It sure helps his case that in '09 he's pretty well batted 1.000 with the player-personnel decisions, especially, as Jon says, with the slightly marginal ones whose rationale may have been initially a tad subtle (or that many of us fans questioned violently, at least). Sherrill, Padilla, Belliard, where would we be without them right now? Then, the negotiations last offseason with Boras, man, what has Colletti done wrong, lately (even if we should start growing weary of Manny next season)? I feel pretty good about Colletti as Dodger GM at this time. I wish Ms Ng well should she be offered a GM position elsewhere.

[bluetrain]

More than losing Kim Ng, which the thot pains me no end, is having the Dodgers turned into a soap opera on ESPN AND Fox. Yikes. Thank you McCourts. And on Colletti, I give a lot of the credit for his (our) success to his support group. His track record suggests that our young core would be playing elsewhere if Colletti were the one totally calling the shots. But I'll admit i've never cared for him, eh!

[AE Newman]

Ng may just be the beginning of a period of turmoil brought on by the pending divorce proceedings. The McCourts situation could put the Dodgers in a bind similar to what the Cubs have gone through during their bankruptcy, and what the Padres went through during their ownership struggles.

[nsxtasy]

>> And Yankees fans HATE Chone Figgins.

Not any more! :)

[Craig88USC]

Of course, she's interviewing elsewhere. Ned's staying here, for the long haul. The McCourt family, too.
We gotta hop on a plane and fly back to sunny California, within the hour, so I'll be brief (for me). : )

Loved Chicago, South Bend and the ND campus, as always. The Irish put up a ferocious fight, this time. But we prevailed without fail, much like the Dodgers will triumph, as well. Confidence and hope, folks.

19 year old Barkley: 19-29 2 TD's 379 yds. Matt has wins at the Shoe, Cal and South Bend... Hello?

The true freshman is now undefeated this year. He's 5-0 as a Trojan, thank you. Heisman!!??

Allow me to introduce you to the next great QB in the NCAA -

"This is fun. This is easy. This is what I was made to do. I really think that God put me here for a reason and I’m just happy to be here." ~Matt Barkley~

Move over, Tim Tebow (who I admire tremendously as a player and inspirational leader). Hope to see him and his Gators, in person, also, this January ... in Pasadena ... SEC and PAC 10, finally. ; )

[D Wreck]

His track record suggests that our young core would be playing elsewhere if Colletti were the one totally calling the shots.

Posted by: bluetrain | October 18, 2009 at 06:03 AM

Really? Somehow I can't help but wonder how this statement could possibly be true. It pretty much contradicts itself. Wouldn't he have had to trade away our young core for that to be his "track record"?

[D Wreck]

Perhaps, he has traded some prospects away, but none that are part of any "core". Maybe some people at one time thought that some of those players could or should be in that core but I would say that Colletti's track record has shown him to be a pretty good judge so far.

[regfairfield]

Ned has proved that the last thing he's going to do is take a risk. This means no trading highly valuable prospects or acquiring any highly valuable players. With the core we have, it's not a bad philosophy to have. In a couple years, we'll probably need someone else.

[Relx]

For those of you are aren't fans of Colletti, of the current GMs in MLB, who would you prefer? I am asking this question seriously, not snarkily. If you just look at the playoff teams from this year, you have:

Brian Cashman, New York Yankees
Ruben Amaro, Jr., Philadelphia
John Mozeliak, St. Louis
Dan O'Dowd, Colorado
Bill Smith, Minnesota
Tony Reagins, Angels
Theo Epstein, Boston

I would take Cashman and Epstein over Colletti--though both have large payrolls which cover up some of their mistakes (Kei Igawa, anyone?), However, I don't think the rest of the bunch are any better or worse than Colletti. Based on the results of the past four seasons, I would say that Colletti is one of the top 10 GMs in baseball.

[regfairfield]

Right now I'd say the rankings are Andrew Friedman, Theo Epstein, Kenny Williams, a bunch of guys you can throw in any order depending on the day of the week, Bill Smith, Ed Wade, Dayton Moore. The level of GM talent has really flattened recently.

[dodgerkramer]

For the record, I think Brian Cashman is the worst GM in the majors for about 10 years running now.

It would be difficult to convince me otherwise.

[kinbote]

Let Ng go, with our blessing. Just make sure Logan White sticks around.

[dodgerkramer]

Random thoughts on a sunny Iowa Sunday...

--I think you have to start the "Best GM" conversation with the guys running the Twins and Marlins.

--We are blessed to have Broxton for the 9th inning. Watching guys like Lidge and Fuentes fumble and stumble make me really appreciate the big bull, though he drives me crazy sometimes.

--I watched some Angels games late in the year, and Scioscia was doing the matchups thing in the ninth inning. I wonder why he didn't send out a right-hander to face A-Rod last night?

--There's no way Cliff Lee should shut us down today like he did twice against Colorado. We should score three runs off Lee, at least.

--I know Colletti has had cheap, young stars in recent years. That no doubt has helped him have flexibility in other areas of team-building. ... Still, I'm impressed with the job he's done. Really impressed.

--If Colletti leaves, either Kim Ng or Logan White would be a fine replacement. I'm not worried.

--Heck, bring back Dan Evans if all else fails. He's the best GM we've had since Al Campanis embarrassed himself on "Nightline."

[underdog]

Philly weather report update!
Brought to you by Cialis.

While the day overall gets a 100% chance of rain, on Weather Underground, it also gives the specific breakdown for the rest of the day thusly:

>>Rest of Today
Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Breezy with highs in the upper 40s. North winds around 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Tonight
Cloudy with a chance of showers in the evening...then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers after midnight. Breezy with lows in the upper 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. <<

We might get the game in after all...

I think I saw "Cloudy with a chance of cheesesteaks" somewhere as well.

[Sam PHL]

It hasn't really rained hard here since yesterday morning. It was a spitting rain most of the day and it isn't raining now. If this holds up, the game will be played.

[SteelMohawk]

I think in the big picture, it is not what defines a good GM, but who. And because the OWNER defines who is a good GM, and not the fans, Brian Cashman IS the best GM in the business. The owner is looking for a guy to run his business the way the owner wants it run. The Steinbrenners orginally wanted to win every year, despite what might happen next year. Cashman did that, now things have changed a little and so has Cashman. Colletti is expected to run a large market team, on a strict budget. Making seemingly boneheaded trades to save cash. And Billy Beane is supposed to play his money ball game and keep a half-way decent team out there. Unfortunately i think, when it comes to owners, not all of them want to win it all every year. And in fact i think A LOT of owners would rather have a team that is run in a specific manner, even if it sacrifices the team overall.

From a fans point of view, I still don't like Colletti, i think his player management really only works about half of the time. But unfortunately I really dont think the McCourts will trust anyone else to run the Dodgers on a payroll under $100M.

[Alex41592]

Game was never is doubt it was just a matter of the strength of the rain they were going to have to play in.

Now, the wind. That's going to be interesting to watch.

[Branch Rickey]

As a fan, it's really hard to know how much I should care about the Dodgers losing Ng. I have no idea how good she is or how responsible she is for the Dodgers good moves and bad moves. I know what to think of Clayton Kershaw, I've watched him work. And I have an idea how to judge Colletti because I assume him to have (nearly) final say on all moves. Of course I've been told repeatedly she's great and so I guess I believe it. But it's hard for me to worry too much about losing someone who I've heard third hand that I should respect.
I hope for her to be good because 1) She's an asian woman and I'm all for people who can break through barriers and stereotypes and 2) as of now she's a Dodger employee.
I'll say that I've when I've met her a couple of times (once at the DT gathering) I thought she seemed very nice and extremely bright. But I don't know what that's worth. I'll also point out (as I assume must have been pointed out during game 2) that one of the few things she said to us was that she thought Perdro Martinez was done and not worth signing. So the one bit of insight I have on her first hand was not exactly one to sway me towards worrying about the situation. I hope we retain her. If we don't, I feel confident that both she and the Dodgers will be fine.

[Phenomenal Smith]

Greg Maddux had a few games like Pedro Martnez's playoff performance while with the Dodgers. I don't know if Friday's performance is repeatable for either Martinez or Padilla.

[Branch Rickey]

Agreed. But Maddux was a good signing as was Padilla as was Martinez. At the time she passed on Pedro, Padilla was not available.

[Branch Rickey]

A quick thought on happiness...
It seems to me that the key to happiness is having it a little better than you did last week, last month, last year. No matter what "it" is. If things are going forward, we're usually happy and when they're going backwards, not so much.
As of right now, we have gotten exactly as far in baseball success as we had last year. Can't end up worse than last year; one more win and we're at least slightly better. For that, I am thankful on this Sunday morning.

[WBB]

I have mixed feelings about Colletti, who I think has been astute this year, but has made some terrible signings in previous seasons. Meanwhile, I quote from the G-nats Splash blog from a fan who seems to represent a common feeling, if not necessarily a consensus, about their current management:

"I said this before annd I will say it again. Ned Coletti was the brains behind the Giants success's of the past. Look at what he put together in LA."

Even leaving aside the bad grammar and spelling, this appears to be more frustration with the team's ineptitude that was caused largely, by their being held hostage by B*nds's chemically enhanced record chase.

[das411]

from today's Inquirer, Randy Wolf on:

Pitching in Phila - "If I were a Philly fan, I'd turn on me."

Pitching in the cold - "I feel more alert in the cold. My pigment isn't the darkest, so I think somewhere in my ancestral roots I endured the cold."

...wow. just wow.

[Phenomenal Smith]

I don't think Wolf will go all Burt Hooton on the Dodgers while pitching in Philadelphia.

[Bob Hendley]

Didn't she surprise the DT group by lauding Dre as much or more than Bison?

I wasn't all that impressed by the Maddux redeux, as we had people that could have provided at least like numbers.

Happiness to me would be that it stop raining in Philly today.

[Andrew Shimmin]

Underdog has corporate sponsorship for his comments, now? I've been away too long.

Regfairfield's point is an interesting one. But is there any cost to replacing Colletti now, instead of in the future when you expect him to be bad at the job?

[bigcpa]

I for one have not forgotten the frustrations of 2007 and 2008. Yes Colletti resisted the temptation to trade the kids. But he and his manager made it way too difficult for those players to break in. If you zoom out and look at the players under 27 that have come and left the organization since 2006, the ledger is awfully lopsided on the exits. I'm thinking Ethier and Betemit on the left-hand side. Werth, Navarro, E. Jackson, C. Ross, Guzman, Santana, Meloan, LaRoche, Morris, Bell, Aybar on the right. I'm sure I missed a few. I just don't see a long-term view at all.

And the hesitation to buy out free agent years from the young core have cost the organization no less than $50 million. At our meet & greet Ng made the excuse of the economy. Well Boston made a 6-year committment to Pedroia in 12/08 in the midst of the crash. Ng seems well-schooled on the ins & outs of MLB operations, but every GM candidate understands the CBA and waiver rules (other than GM Lasorda). The lesson of 2009 is that cheap young talent is gold. Hopefully Colletti has evolved in his thinking on that subject.

[CanuckDodger]

das411, what are you objecting to in wolf's comment? Anthropologically speaking, fairer-skinned people are associated with colder climates.

[Ken Noe]

Kim Ng also interviewed in Seattle and didn't get the job. We don't know that SD will hire her. Personally, I'd much rather keep her than Ned, but it's hard to imagine him leaving now unless the separation or a better offer intervene. And Ng deserves her chance. I just wonder how secure DePo is down there when any new GM arrives.

[Andrew Shimmin]

If Colletti were promoted to a make believe job with no real responsibilities, it would free him up for a reality tv show pilot I've been trying to produce. McCourt, Colletti, and Lasorda living together in an apartment in South Pasadena. It's like Three's Company meets No Exit. Bob is Mr. Roper.

[Phenomenal Smith]

There are a lot of unsold lofts in South Pasadena. I think those would work for the McCourt/Colletti/Lasorda version of "The Real World."

[Andrew Shimmin]

Just as long as they don't have access to a hot tub.

[Icaros]

Bob is more of a Mr. Furley

[Branch Rickey]

Well clearly for the ratings to be at their highest, both Jamie and Frank would need to be there. And Depo too. And let's not leave out the Kent/Kemp roommate possibility.

[Andrew Shimmin]

Furley. That's what I meant. I should stick to alluding to shows I've ever seen.

[Icaros]

Clearly the McCourts are Mr. and Mrs. Roper.

[DL]

And the hesitation to buy out free agent years from the young core have cost the organization no less than $50 million.

I don't believe that's true. If anything, the Dodgers saved money by not long-terming Russell Martin, whose performance has declined sharply two years in a row. The only players I wish the team would lock up are Kemp and Kershaw, and maybe Billingsley. I might have included Martin on that list a year ago, but not anymore. Broxton and Loney are replaceable and not worth paying big-money contracts, and Ethier might be past his peak by the time his FA years roll around.

[WBB]

While I personally have misgivings about the very concept of a "closer," truly dominant relief pitchers such as Jonathan Broxton are not easy to replace.

[bigcpa]

Sizemore's deal :
Yr 4 - $3.0
Yr 5 - $4.6
Yr 6 - $5.5
FA 1 - $7.5
FA 2 - $8.5
Total - $29.1M

Braun's deal:
Yr 4 - $4.0
Yr 5 - $6.0
Yr 6 - $8.5
FA 1 - $10.0
FA 2 - $12.0
Total - $40.5M

Howard's $10M arb win and subsequent extension is going to set the bar for Kemp and Ethier. Both of them could stand to make:

Yr 4 - $8.0
Yr 5 - $10.0
Yr 6 - $12.0
FA 1 - $15.0
FA 2 - $15.0
Total - $60.0M

So there's $20M each left on the table before you get to Martin, Loney, Broxton, Billingsley. Even if you overpaid for Martin a year ago you'd be way ahead at this point.

[UCLA Troy]

I can understand why a Dodger fan might feel that way, though. We've been pretty successful in that area.

[Bob Hendley]

Broxton don't grow on trees (they don't make trees big enough).

[Craig88USC]

Jonathan Broxton is ten feet tall and bulletproof. ;)

.

Touchdown! Reggie Bush! New Orleans! : )

Saints 34 ... Giants 17 (At that half)

[DL]

You think Kemp and Ethier are going to make Ryan Howard money?

[Blue Gal]

It's very nerve wracking sitting here and waiting for gametime. The Philly papers think Lee will cripple our Blue and already consider it an easy win. I love being the underdog but want to get this thing started. Anyone have any further weather updates. I hate football so I'm watching MLB network's re broadcast of game 5 of the ALCS comeback of the Bosox . It seems strange to see Torre in pinstripes. I now totally associate him as "our" guy.

[Craig88USC]

There is no 'ctrl' button on Broxton's computer. Broxton is always in control.

If you have five dollars and Jonathan Broxton has five dollars, Jonathan Broxton has more money than you.
Tebow will dress up as Broxton this Halloween.

[bigcpa]

>> You think Kemp and Ethier are going to make Ryan Howard money?

No Howard was

Yr 4 - $10m
Yr 5 - $15m
Yr 6 - $19m
FA 1 - $20m
Total - $64m

I'm assuming $45m each for the comparable years - 30% less. If you consider age and defensive value , Kemp & Ethier should ask for more than my numbers.

[Alex41592]

The heavy rain is long gone. Just scattered rain around Philly but it looks like rain won't be a problem at all.

Wind will be consistently at 20 MPH. But, they will weaken throughout the game.

[Craig88USC]

Drew Brees to Colston in the 3rd ...

'orleans 41
'york 17

[DL]

The whole point of buying out those FA years is to give the player some job security at a salary that is presumably discounted from what he could otherwise make. I could see Matt Kemp getting a $15m/yr (or more) free agent contract, particularly if the Yankees and Red Sox decide they want him, but I have a hard time seeing Ethier getting that much.

In any case, I should remind myself not to get into financial disagreements with someone named "bigcpa."

[Eric Enders]

I love Andre Ethier, and he's an outstanding player, but I can't help fearing that he's a bad contract waiting to happen. The Dodgers already seem to think he's better than he actually is. Considering his total lack of defensive value, his clutch performance (which, while awesome, is not a repeatable skill), and the fact that this is his age 27 season and likely the best season he will ever have -- and one fears that any long-term contract he's signed to will end up being an albatross.

[Jack Dawkins]

Interview with Vin in the Parade section today.

[Craig88USC]

New USA Today poll is out (being part of the BcS's first rankings of the season, which due in an hour)

Rank Team Record Points Last week
1. Florida 6-0 1,464 1
2. Alabama 7-0 1,398 3
3. Texas 6-0 1,386 2
4. Southern California 5-1 1,237 5

If we win out, we will either end up #1, if we go to the BCS NC game ... or #2, if instead we beat an undefeated BIG Ten champ in Iowa. We will play at the Rose Bowl, either way, imho. : )

If Texas doesn't drop below us beforehand (C'mon Missouri! C'mon Okie State!) and ends up going to the BCS NC game ahead of us, the SEC champ will eat them alive. We will ALL have to turn our heads away from the screen at the horror. ;)

[WBB]

I disagree on Ethier. His offensive numbers, especially power, have shown steady improvement and, by age, he is just reaching his prime. I expect, he can sustain or even improve his current production for the next four or five years. His defense may be another issue, but he's certainly not a major liability.

[Alex41592]

What a game in the Metrodome...err Mall of America Field.

[Alex41592]

They're playing Don't Stop Believin' for the Vikings.

[underdog]

Wow, what a choke job by the Vikings' defense. Wow. I wish my fantasy football team had Ray Rice instead of Willis McGahee, sigh.

[Alex41592]

Unbelievable throw and catch by Favre and Rice.

[Craig88USC]

After Manny leaves (with TWO more rings, hopefully) after 2010 to DH for the Indians or Yanks

'Dre can do his dining in left...

Hook him up long term, Ned. :)

[Eric Enders]

I disagree on Ethier. His offensive numbers, especially power, have shown steady improvement and, by age, he is just reaching his prime.

The fact that people believe this is exactly the problem. Ethier is still thought of as a young player. He's not. Baseball players have their peak seasons most commonly at ages 27 and 26, both of which have already passed for Ethier (and indeed, they have been his two best seasons).

You can choose to hope that Ethier will continue to improve, but that's what it is: a hope, a wish. It may happen -- these things aren't absolute -- but the odds are against it.

That said, he could decline very gradually over the next five years, with each season being only slightly worse than the last. In that case he'd have a fighting chance of being worth whatever he's being paid by then.

[Alex41592]

I think 30 HR's and 100+ RBI's over the next several years is just fine.

He's 27 not 37. Ethier is entering his peak. Lets not group him with Casey Blake.

[Craig88USC]

Just how sad can the fans of St. Louis get?

We're about to find out.

[Craig88USC]

Maybe it's about time for the Rams to back to LA ... ummmm

[UCLA Troy]

Phew. Jags avoid a potential embarassing loss.

[Craig88USC]

M.Jones-Drew up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

[Alex41592]

Wide left. Brett Favre and the Vikings 6-0.

[UCLA Troy]

What a game by MJD. Prior to this year the only remaining question about him was could he do it by himself. Answer: Yes.

[Fallout]

You can't have two GM's just like you can't have two up and coming catchers playing at the same time.

Did you ever have to make up your mind
Pick up on one and leave the other behind
It's not often easy and not often kind
Did you ever have to make up your mind

Did you ever have to finally decide
Say yes to one and let the other one ride
There's so many changes and tears you must hide
Did you ever have to finally decide....
---The Lovin' Spoonful---

[Craig88USC]

Troy, It's that great coaching by Del Rio. ;)

[UCLA Troy]

Haha.

How much I wish he'd get the axe.

[Craig88USC]

Sometimes you really dig a girl the moment you kiss her
And then you get distracted by her older sister
When in walks her father and takes you a line
And says, "You better go home, son, and make up your mind"

And then you bet you'd better finally decide...

[CanuckDodger]

I agree with Eric Enders on Ethier. Nobody is saying get rid of him NOW. He still belongs to us for three more seasons before he is eligible for free agency. But after those three years, when Ethier is past 30, I say forget about throwing big money at him. We have players in our farm system now who can take Ethier's place when the time comes. They will be younger and cheaper than Ethier, and they will have their best years AHEAD of them -- like Ethier once did.

[Dodger-Robert]

Regarding Ethier, I would tend to agree that he is coming into his peak years, not coming out of them. Eric, I think that using other players' careers as a yardstick for performance is also a recipe for a bad contract situation. I'm sure some of the more knowledgeable statisticians here can come up with plenty of players who had their peak years from say, age 28-34. My point is just that there is no real way to predict how a player's career arc is going to play out. Pun intended. With Andre, he has shown a consistent increase for every year he has played in the majors. He will either decline, stay where he's at, or continue to improve. It seems to me like he could hit 40 HR next year, or 25. I personally would try to lock him up for the next 2-3 years and see what happens.

[Dodger-Robert]

"I agree with Eric Enders on Ethier. Nobody is saying get rid of him NOW. He still belongs to us for three more seasons before he is eligible for free agency. But after those three years, when Ethier is past 30, I say forget about throwing big money at him. We have players in our farm system now who can take Ethier's place when the time comes. They will be younger and cheaper than Ethier, and they will have their best years AHEAD of them -- like Ethier once did.

Posted by: CanuckDodger | October 18, 2009 at 01:30 PM"

Hard to disagree with that logic! What would you do if Andre does end up being a 35HR/ .290 batter over that time? Would you still advocate the younger talent over a contract? Just curious!

[Icaros]

I can help but think that if the Dodgers had not traded their other up-and-coming catcher for a worthless pitcher, and allowed him and Martin to both play significant time, Martin might not have seen his career burn out in two years.

[Icaros]

Can't help, that is.

[EMDarrow]

Wow. Ethier is becoming Eric Karros 2.0.