Kuroda still possible for NLCS rotation, Padilla definite

Vicente Padilla will start in the National League Championship Series, Dodgers General Manger Ned Colletti said today, meaning that Chad Billingsley's fate for the NLCS depends on whether Hiroki Kuroda comes back from his nerve injury to grab a spot in the four-man rotation.

Dodgers Manager Joe Torre added that Kuroda threw 50 pitches in a five-inning simulated game today, using all his arsenal, followed by more pitches in the bullpen.

"I was very comfortable watching him," Torre said. "There's probably a chance he'll be on the roster. Let's see how he comes out of it tomorrow."

If Kuroda returns, Billingsley probably will be in the bullpen and Jon Garland will be left off the 25-man roster.

Comments

[Eric Enders]

This was the decision I expected, although not the one I was hoping for.

[Craig88USC]

Sounds like Hiroki is about ready to return if he feels good in the morning.

lat'd

: )

"You kind of catch yourself rooting for the Dodgers, and I'm sure the Dodgers are rooting for us," Hunter said during a workout in Anaheim. "It'd be kind of awesome to have a Freeway Series."

"That's a dream world," Angels leadoff hitter Chone Figgins said about an all-LA matchup. "Hopefully, they'll win on their side, and we can get the first game in our series and go from there."

-AP story by Beth Harris

[Alex41592]

Have to switch those D's to C's, Jon.

NLDS is so last week.

[Eric Stephen]

Does anyone else feel bad that the two "super fans" in the MLB Network commercials (one woman, one man) are apparently incapable of speech?

[nsxtasy]

LAT'ed...

>> 2010 starters if get to choose - :)
>> 1-Kid K
>> 2-Kid Bills
>> 3-Ol' Roki
>> 4-Ol' Wolf
>> 5-Kid Josh

Well, as of right now, Kershaw, Bills, and Kuroda are signed for next year, so I think it's safe to assume they will be 60 percent of our rotation next year, until and unless we hear otherwise.

When we signed Wolf last winter/spring, he was considered a typical #3 or #4 starter. Houston had retracted its offer of $28 million for three years, and we signed him late in the winter for $5 million for one year; presumably that was the best offer he got. Granted, salary levels were generally somewhat depressed due to economic conditions, but I think that was a typical offer for a typical #3 or #4 starter. Compare that with, say, Derek Lowe, who - based on his 2008 performance - would be considered a typical #1 or #2 starter, i.e. not a Halladay/Lee/Carpenter type superstar, but good enough to be the best starter on a lot of teams. I thought Lowe was worth $10-12 million/year, although not the $15 million he got from Atlanta.

Based on his 2009 performance, I think Wolf's comparables have moved up. I would now consider him a #1 or #2 starter like Lowe was a year ago, and I could see him getting anywhere in the $8-12 million range for next year. I could see us re-signing him for, say, $15-20 million for two years. Is there another team who might sign him for longer and/or more than that, such as $35-40 million for three years? I don't know. Maybe. If so, I don't think we would match it. So I really don't know whether he will be back next year or not.

I think we could re-sign Padilla for a lot less than Wolf. I don't know how much less, but I'm guessing somewhere in the $2-4 million per year range. I think he's worth that, and that's a bargain as well as a relative pittance compared with the rest of our payroll. And I bet he wants to be back, since he went from a non-playoff team where he was disliked to a perennial contender where he's been welcomed. I think it's likely Padilla will be back next year.

I don't think Garland was good enough to make us want to re-sign him.

I don't think Ned will make the same mistake next year as this year, and thus won't assume that any of our prospects (including guys with MLB experience like Stults and Milton) is worth committing a spot in the rotation for them. They might make it during the season if someone gets injured or doesn't pitch well. He certainly wouldn't reserve a spot for anyone who hasn't already pitched very well at the AAA level for a sustained period.

So that means we'll have Kershaw, Bills, Kuroda, and Padilla, and maybe Wolf. And maybe instead of Wolf we sign a free agent or trade for someone.

Someone mentioned Roy Halladay. With his contract expiring at the end of 2010 and an extension unlikely, you would expect Toronto to be willing to trade him before then. It actually confounded logic that they didn't do that this past July, when his value was even higher, but there's been plenty of criticism of Ricciardi written for not doing so and for the way he conducted those negotiations, and I'm sure that's much of the reason he no longer works there. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Ned made a deal with Toronto to get Halladay. I'm not saying it's likely, just because there are other teams who would be equally interested. But gee whiz, if we could land Halladay, that would really make us a hugely better team, depending on what we would have to give up, which is a big qualification on that statement.

[gpellamjr]

If Kuroda is still available for the NLDS, he's grittier than I thought.

[Craig88USC]

Bill Dwyre's new LA Times column excerpt -

"Then, faster than you can say one-two-three, Los Angeles became the center of the baseball universe. Fly away, Cardinals. Chew on that, Beantown.

Two division series sweeps. The broom is the new sports logo of Los Angeles. The Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim make baseball's final four. How good is that?

The elephant in the room is called a Freeway Series, just four wins away now for the Dodgers and Angels, meaning their travel days would be in a carpool lane instead of an aisle seat.

Rumor has it some hard-core Philadelphia fans are training for this series by throwing rocks at crossing guards."

[underdog]

ESPN's (Sportscenter) going to have the top plays of the year for just the 4 remaining baseball playoff teams. Any minute now!

[DL]

Considering how much the Dodgers are playing the "nobody believed in us!" card after beating St. Louis, they're actually slight favorites in the NLCS according to the bookies:

Phillies +105
Dodgers -125

A 7-game victory by either team pays 4-1, and a sweep by either team pays 4-1. The 5- and 6-game victory scenarios also pay out at identical odds for either team, indicating how close Vegas thinks this series is.

Randy Wolf is a very slight favorite in Game 1 over Cole Hamels:

Phillies +103
Dodgers -113

[CanuckDodger]

Wrong, Colletti did not make a "mistake" by leaving open the fifth rotation slot to be won by a pitcher in spring training. This year proved that we absolutely did not need to get a "proven" and expensive pitcher for that slot. We just threw anybody with a pulse in that slot and we won game after game. And going into next year, McDonald is more experienced and Elbert too is ready to be a major league starter. We have no business blocking them.

[Acardinalfire]

Please visit my blog too!
http://www.espnisstupid.blogspot.com/

[nsxtasy]

>> Padilla: WHIP BAA ERA
>> 305 Game Career- 1.39 .268 4.33
>> 2009 Season- 1.43 .277 4.46

>> One issue that I rarely see raised is comparative ERAs between the NL and the AL, which has the DH and, consequently, pitchers have higher ERAs there.

Good point. Another good point is that Padilla was treated very differently in Texas from Dodgertown USA, and his attitude may have affected his performance. Check out the splits this year between the 18 regular season games with Texas and the 8 regular season games with the Dodgers (note, these numbers do NOT include his playoff game against the Cards):

WHIP - BAA - ERA
Texas: 1.50 - .286 - 4.92
L.A.: 1.22 - .252 - 3.20

That's a HUGE difference. Can he sustain that level of performance if he continues with the Dodgers in 2010 and beyond? Only time will tell. But it's worth noting that he showed a similar level of performance in his best years with the Phillies (2002-2003), and that he'll still be 32 years old next year, which isn't all that old yet.

[Craig88USC]

NSX, my friend, You're not a big fan of plugging in new kids into the starting rotation?
We'll just have to agree to disagree on that philosophy, my friend.

I would plan on ScottE, JMac and my favorite, Phenom Lindblom to battle it out in
next spring for that 5th spot.

But, that's me. : )

[nsxtasy]

I just think it's great that we have TOO MANY good starters who many of us think deserve starts in the NLCS, so we have to disagree on which one to leave out. That's a problem some other teams would love to have.

[DL]

Correction for all you gamblers out there: A sweep by either the Phillies or the Dodgers is at 12-1 odds, not 4-1. Any takers?

[Craig88USC]

Please disregard that dangling extra "in" in my last post. ;)

[nsxtasy]

>> Posted by: lafaninchitown | October 13, 2009 at 08:40 PM

This post represents some of the same frustration I occasionally feel with some posts and posters here on DT. We should be able to express differences of opinion without anyone feeling they are being lectured or castigated. That's the reason for those DT rules (wherever they vanished to), so that posts don't insult anyone or say the same thing over and over again (easily the most frequently violated of Jon's rules). And once the team decides to do something, that's the decision they get paid to make and what the team lives with. With time, we then find out whether it works out or not. If the team decides to do something you or I would have done differently, they simply have a different opinion from yours; but their job is to make those decisions, and ours isn't. When that happens, there's no reason to continue to whine about it; doing so shows a profound lack of respect, not just for the team, but also for fellow DT participants.

[Robert562]

Agreed NSX. We are facing a very good problem.

[lafaninchitown]

nsx,
why is my name called out? I am the one under attack because I said Padilla should start over Billingsley. Which was the decision by the Dodgers also.
I was questioned for claiming Padilla was the best pitcher. Someone countered only in record. Which I agreed, that's why I did not send a counterpoint.
For the record, Kersh is my favorite pitcher. J Mac next. So, I am not a Padilla fan. I was just impressed by his contribution to the team.

[Craig88USC]

Face it. This year's edition of the Dodgers is darn good.

And so were those rules. It keeps folks from getting their posts deleted, for one thing. This place is different from all my other favorite sites - posted rules is one big reason, Jon. :)

[Hobo Ambush]

"Correction for all you gamblers out there: A sweep by either the Phillies or the Dodgers is at 12-1 odds, not 4-1. Any takers?"

That sounds more like it. They were 8-1 to sweep the shorter NLDS
and don't think I'm not kicking myself for not taking that chance.

[nsxtasy]

Incidentally, here are some stats for each of the Dodgers starters this season. They include all appearances for the Dodgers, including relief appearances for those (McDonald, Weaver, Haeger) who appeared out of the bullpen as well as starting.

Name - Starts - ERA - WHIP - BAA
Garland 6 2.72 1.27 .262
Kershaw 30 2.79 1.23 .200
Padilla 7 3.20 1.22 .252
Wolf 34 3.23 1.10 .227
Haeger 3 3.32 1.05 .188
Weaver 7 3.65 1.52 .281
Kuroda 20 3.76 1.14 .243
Milton 5 3.80 1.52 .303
McDonald 4 4.00 1.49 .254
Billingsley 32 4.03 1.32 .244
Stults 10 4.86 1.54 .268
Schmidt 4 5.60 1.58 .239

I find it rather interesting that the guy with the lowest ERA hasn't pitched in the playoffs and may not even make the roster for the NLCS. Even more interesting are those with the best BAA, in order: Haeger, Kershaw, Wolf, and... Schmidt???

[Eric Enders]

We're all impressed by Padilla's contribution to the team, of course. The $64,000 question is whether or not he'll be able to continue that level of contribution. The decision has been made, so now all we can do is wait to find out (and root for him).

Also, as Jon frequently points out, there's a difference between being attacked and being disagreed with.

[lafaninchitown]

that's why I dont waste my time looking at stats.

[Craig88USC]

Oh boy. Can't wait 'till Thursday.

[lafaninchitown]

I am still pissed off about Friday's game. I wish I knew that a week ahead then I could have asked for a personal day off. It's that important to me.
I have to figure out an excuse to take off early on Friday. Maybe I can talk my doctor into making me a note for a follow up visit. I have an appt tomorrow.

[nsxtasy]

>> why is my name called out? I am the one under attack because I said Padilla should start over Billingsley.

I think you are misunderstanding my post, although to the extent it gives that impression in any way, I apologize. I AGREE WITH YOU AND YOUR POST. I'm not referring to your post saying that Padilla should start over Billingsley (although I agree with that too), but rather, to your post showing your frustration at posts where folks claim to be "holier than thou" and imply that those who disagree are somehow not worthy of posting here. There's too much of that kind of thing going on here. Each of us has a valid opinion and should be treated with respect.

[lafaninchitown]

The only thing, a few people at work (here in Chicago) knows I am a Dodger fan.

[Maddz]

Is it just not worth it to have a starter that can only go 5 innings?

[Craig88USC]

Kershaw and Wolf - 64 starts
Haeger and Schmidt - 7 starts

[lafaninchitown]

nsx,
I am the new guy here. So, I cant tell anyone to stop posting.
But if I misunderstood you, my bad.

[Daniel Zappala]

Finally, a Gmail extension for all of Bob's friends:

http://bit.ly/3VZPIV

[lafaninchitown]

Anybody here listen to the sports talk show? Being in Chicago, I download podcasts from PMS and Tony Bruno. And here's what I think about the show:
Tony Bruno Into the Night - if you are a Dodgers fan this is the show to listen to right now. Bruno is a Phillies fan and he is broadcasting in L.A. so he will talk about the series majority of the time.
PMS - After that miraculous Dodgers comeback win in game 2 which was a Thursday night. I downloaded the thursday and friday shows and guess what? No mention of the Dodgers. Fatros talked about college football 99% of the time. How can a L.A. based sports talk show not mention a Dodgers win that was so dramatic that it has to be a headline over there?
Am I missing something here? Help out a fellow L.A. sports fan here, I dont get much info here.

[nsxtasy]

>> You're not a big fan of plugging in new kids into the starting rotation?

Quite the contrary! However, I don't see any of our new kids as being ready quite yet. Elbert hasn't started at all with the Dodgers and wasn't pitching all that well during his September call-up; give him more starts at Albuquerque. McDonald was a disaster in his four starts this year, although he had a mixed record in relief and probably could benefit from continuing from the bullpen with the Dodgers with an occasional spot start, with more starts if he does well in those. Lindblom was just called up to Albuquerque towards the end of this season, and needs to spend some time there before he's ready for the Dodgers. OTOH the Erics might be ready, if healthy, and I might consider giving one or the other a shot.

The #5 starter situation was nothing short of chaos before we got Padilla and Garland, and even though we won many of those games, it was unsettling to the entire team. It would be better to start the season with five designated starters. Chances are that one or more will falter during the season, due to either injury or to poor outings, and at that point I'd give one of the young lads the opportunity to start games. There might also be opportunities in the bullpen for them (as well as possibly others, like Leach, Schlichting, Haeger, etc). Unlike the playoffs, we can't keep using the same three relievers in game after game during the regular season. Unfortunately for those kids, the normal route to becoming a big league starter is to try them out in the bullpen first, but we have so many good relievers that there aren't a whole lot of openings there.

[Craig88USC]

lafaninchitown, my friend

I love how big a Dodgers fan you are. Especially being way out in Chicago,
which my wife and I will be visiting this weekend while attending the SC/ND clash.

Just make sure that you read and follow Jon's 12 rules so you don't get deleted anymore.
(Personal attacks are a no-no here, for instance). So Go Padilla! Go Hiroki! Go Chad!

Go Dodgers! : )

[Alex41592]

PMS is now a national show but they still should've talked a little bit about it. College football and NFL football will get a wider variety of people interested from across the country to listen. So, they stick to that.

[lafaninchitown]

Did i get deleted? and for what? I was the one being attacked. I just made a comment. I told Eric Enders he wins! That's not an attack.

[lafaninchitown]

L.A based radio talk show and the Dodgers and Angels are in the playoffs. Why arent they talking about it?
I stopped downloading their shows after that.
Got any suggestions? The show must be downloadable.

[lafaninchitown]

L.A based radio talk show and the Dodgers and Angels are in the playoffs. Why arent they talking about it?
I stopped downloading their shows after that.
Got any suggestions? The show must be downloadable.

[lafaninchitown]

I have nothing to do with that double posting. I swear!
I am computer savvy!

[nsxtasy]

According to the Ken Gurnick article on dodgers.com, JT is considering starting Kershaw in game 1, rather than Wolf.

Note that this doesn't commit him to starting Kershaw in Philadelphia. He could start Wolf in game 2 and have him come back and start game 5 in Philly on normal rest, while waiting until game 6 in L.A. to bring back Kershaw.

Of course, there may not even be a game 5 or a game 6, and you can be sure Joe won't be talking about them until after game 4.

[lafaninchitown]

Kershaw is always compared to Koufax. But anyone else remind Kershaw of Orel Hershiser?

[Craig88USC]

I don't listen to radio much, so I can't help you there. Lots of radio here in LA, like
Alex said, is national now and heavy with football. And we don't even have a NFL team
here in Los Angeles................................................... yet.

But we have college football galore. : )

[nsxtasy]

>> I am still pissed off about Friday's game. I wish I knew that a week ahead then I could have asked for a personal day off. It's that important to me.
>> I have to figure out an excuse to take off early on Friday. Maybe I can talk my doctor into making me a note for a follow up visit. I have an appt tomorrow.
>> The only thing, a few people at work (here in Chicago) knows I am a Dodger fan.

I assume you are referring to your desire to watch the game on television, rather than attending in person, and without having the result spoiled to you beforehand. My suggestion: record the game at home on a DVR (e.g. Tivo) or VCR or other recording device, and watch it from the beginning. This may require some additional precautions to keep from hearing game results before then, such as not answering the phone, not checking your e-mail (not even looking at a list of e-mail subjects), not checking news websites, not listening to the radio, etc. But you can do it. Heck, I've done that with Dodger games, no problem.

Also note that the game starts at 3:07 pm our time (I'm in Chicago too) so it will still be in progress on your way home from work. If you normally take the el or Metra, you may want to drive to and from work that day so you can control your ability to overhear others talking about the game.

[nsxtasy]

>> Did i get deleted? and for what? I was the one being attacked. I just made a comment. I told Eric Enders he wins! That's not an attack.

I don't speak for Jon, who runs this site. But if you have any questions or concerns about posts here, deleted or otherwise, you can e-mail Jon directly. You can find his e-mail address by clicking on his name, Jon Weisman, where it appears under the heading About the Bloggers in the right column of every topic here on Dodger Thoughts.

[Jon Weisman]

lafan -

You got deleted because of the sarcastic comment at another commenter's expense. I've done the same to Eric in the past, so don't feel singled out. It's just one of those things.

New post up top.

[underdog]

If I may chime in here...
I think the Dodgers have are set at the top three starters, now that Kuroda appears both healthy and on his game (according to Torre's glowing report this week): It should be Kershaw, Kuroda and Wolf. (I like mixing up LRL but whatever the think is best.)

Then the next two guys are Billingsley and Padilla and all the arguments here for either one of them as the next starter have been pretty fair. Padilla has been hot and no one can deny that. He also could just as easily be terrible in his next start, as he's been erratic in his career, but any of the Dodger starters are capable of bombing out. I don't trust either he or Billingsley to go more than 5 good innings but with their bullpen so what? 5 good innings and then 4 from a great pen beats 6 good innings + the Phillies lesser pen.

I also could see Padilla being very effective out of the bullpen for 2-3 innings.

I guess what I'm saying is either either Padilla or Bills I think the Dodgers are in pretty good hands, but I particularly like their top 3. For the Phillies I'd only have confidence in their top 2, and neither one of those guys scare me.

[68elcamino427]

Pitching for this series?

1. Kershaw
2. Padilla
3. Wolf
4. Billingsley

If relief is needed:

in the 4th/5th inning enter Weaver
in the 6th inning enter Bellisario
in the 7th inning enter Kuo
in the 8th inning enter Sherrill
in the 9th inning enter Broxton

Elbert/Kuroda in reserve

Please score a few runs for the starters.

Could this work?

[nsxtasy]

I previously noted that the Dodgers can start games 5 and 6 with the starters of games 1 and 2, in either order; in other words, the game 1 starter can pitch either game 5 or game 6 on normal rest, and so can the game 2 starter.

Game 7 also offers the flexibility of choosing from either the game 3 starter or the game 4 starter, and either one will be pitching on normal rest. What this means is that you can have game 7 started by whichever starter pitched better, the one in game 3 or the one in game 4. However, this latter flexibility can break down if there is a postponement, such as if game 3 is rained out on Sunday so games 3 and 4 are played on Monday and Tuesday.

And again, any games after game 4 may not even take place.

As for availability to start in the World Series... The NLCS schedule has a possible game 7 on October 24. The starter of that game would not be available to start game 1 of the World Series on October 28 on normal rest. The ALCS schedule has possible games 6 and 7 on October 24 and 25, so starters of either of those games would not be available to start game 1 of the World Series on normal rest, and the ALCS game 7 starter would not be available to start game 2 of the World Series on normal rest, either. This is exactly what occurred with the Phillies, with Cliff Lee not being available to start the NLCS until game 3.

This disadvantage for the ALCS winner would be more significant if it weren't for the possibility that the ALCS might not go seven games, and/or might not go as long as the NLCS series.

[nsxtasy]

Oops, sorry, new post up top, will need to be LAT'ed...