I don't know, second base?

No offense to Blake DeWitt, but second base is widely considered the most likely position for the Dodgers to bring in a new hombre. In the last 24 hours, four bloggers have addressed it in some fashion.

• Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness and Memories of Kevin Malone look back at the 2009 performances of the Dodgers second basemen.
• Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors looks at the trade market for second basemen. (An earlier post looked at free agents, including 2009 Dodgers Orlando Hudson and Ronnie Belliard.)
• Jack Moore of Fangraphs thinks the Dodgers should re-sign Hudson, though after his fall benching, Hudson has indicated he's very much through with Los Angeles. (MSTI points out that the Dodgers should offer Hudson salary arbitration, expecting that he'll decline but allowing the team to get draft-pick compensation.)

But there are some who think DeWitt actually is the answer.  For a few weeks now, I've saved this comment from Dodger Thoughts reader CanuckDodger. It might not be the last word, but it has words worth considering.

You asked me what makes me so confident in Dewitt's offense. A couple of things. First, let's deal with the issue of his Triple A numbers this year. I think the most relevant numbers are 48 walks and 44 SOs in 356 ABs. He had to be awfully unlucky on balls in play to hit for the low average he put up (.256). That low average is the only problem, because his walk rate was good and his extra-base hits relative to total hits was also good, exceeding the 30% one wants to see. And it is not like DeWitt hasn't hit well at Triple A before, as he hit.306/.366/.486 in 2008.

Second, I think what DeWitt did in the majors in 2008 is pertinent. He had no business being ready for the majors then, but despite that he hit .303/.372/.465 in 48 games through April and May. We all remember the terrible slump he slipped into after that till he was demoted to Triple A, but again, why should that be held against a player who was not supposed to be MLB-ready at all? The time in Triple A seemed to help, as he was fine after returning to the majors. He replaced Jeff Kent as our starting 2B at the end of August, and in 27 games till the regular season ended he hit .282/.404/.447.

I will end by just noting that if you really want to dismiss DeWitt because he only hit .256 in Triple A this year, well, Chase Utley only hit .263 in Triple A when he was DeWitt's age, 23. I sometimes think people assume a guy isn't going to be a decent major leaguer unless he blew everybody away in the minors. History says that assumption is incorrect.

Comments

[Eric Stephen]

Offering Hudson arbitration seems like the obvious call. Even if he accepts, it would be great to have him back on a one-year deal, but given the way he was brushed aside in the end I don't think there is any way Hudson would accept arbitration. There are two free draft picks for the Dodgers' taking, and I hope they do it.

[Branch Rickey]

I believe that the Dodgers see DeWitt as the long term solution at 3rd base, not at 2nd base. I guess that doesn't mean he can't be the short term solution at 2nd and although that might be the backup plan for 2010, I think that is not Plan A.

[Jon Weisman]

If you want to hear my appearance discussing the McCourts on KCRW's "Which Way, L.A.?" last night: http://bit.ly/2JFmS

[regfairfield]

After Utley had a crappy year in AAA at age 23, he spent most of next year at AAA at age 24 and had a .696 OPS in 154 PA in the bigs that year. He didn't become the full time second baseman until 26.

If DeWitt's comp really is Chase Utley, then we need another second baseman next year.

[ceyheyjay]

I like Dewitt's bat plenty to be a part of the starting 8 and his defense at 3B is excellent. At second, he's not great, but he's definitely not bad. Given the current cloud hanging over the team, I think we could do much worse than giving the job to Dewitt. Canuck makes great points as always.

However, just as an alternative theory to discuss, for all the Juan Pierre-haters out there, what about a contract swap of Luis Castillo for Juan Pierre? It'd be sort of a gamble since you don't really know what to expect from Manny, but not really too bad risky. I know Castillo isn't great by any stretch, but at least the money would be used for a starter, rather than a reserve. And if the Mets buy into Pierre being better than Castillo, which I think he is, then we could save some money along the way, which is going to be important this off-season whether anyone wants to face that fact or not.

[OZ]

The 2B spots is going to come from the inside, you got Blake DeWitt, Chin Lung Hu, Ivan DeJesus, or sign Ronnie Belliard for one year. I've heard of the idea of trading Juan Pierre for Luis Castillo (bad contract for bad contract:Pierre = 2/18, Castillo = 2/12). But I would rather have them trade Pierre to the Mets for Oliver Perez (2/24). If you're going to overpay, overpay for pitching, but I could settle for Castillo.

[Humma Kavula]

I am also in the swap-the-bad-contracts-of-Pierre-for-Castillo camp. Pierre is more useful to the Mets than Castillo is, and Castillo is more useful to the Dodgers than Pierre is.

What's more, the Dodgers could play the same game with Castillo that they played with Pierre. Pierre was the default starter and then the better players took his starting job away. The Dodgers can tell DeWitt, with a straight face, "Want to start at 2B? If you can earn it, we'll bench the other guy."

[Humma Kavula]

Have I been banned? Or is anyone else having trouble posting?

I'm assuming I've been banned.

[DL]

I've had few posts disappear into the ether too. The site's performance the last few days has been awful. Come on, tech guys, get it together.

[Eric Stephen]

I wouldn't be horribly opposed to a Pierre for Castillo swap, but one thing to consider is that Castillo is probably the worst fielding 2B in baseball.

UZR/150
-10.8 (20th of 20 qualifiers at 2B; next worst was Uggla at -7.3)

Plus/Minus
2009: -8 (31st among MLB 2B)
2008: -11 (32nd)

Still, for an eight-year period his lowest OBP is .355. Even though Mets' fans generally have hated him since his acquisition in mid-2007, his OBP as a Met has been .374. Not too shabby.

[Eric Stephen]

I forgot to add...the plus/minus number is actually "runs saved," per Bill James Online.

[MFC521]

I'm going to jump on the swap-the-bad-contracts bandwagon too. Even if--heaven forbid--something did happen to Manny again, there's absolutely no guarantee that JP will be able to match his numbers from this year's suspension.

And Maddz, I too am dressed up for work. My boss more or less forced me into dressing up as a cowgirl with her; yes, we're matching, and no, I've never felt this lame before in my entire life.

[Marc P.]

Orlando Cabrera???

I like the idea of bringing him in and shifting him to second...

[nsxtasy]

>> Have I been banned? Or is anyone else having trouble posting?
>> I'm assuming I've been banned.

DT is processing posts slowly this morning, although it's not having the slow loading problems I incurred earlier. My "mea culpa 1993" post an hour ago took about 15 minutes before it showed up on the site (which is why I repeated it).

[Maddz]

No, just trouble posting, Humma. :)

[Maddz]

MFC, I am a Splicer from Bioshock. I have a pipe wrench. I am all powerful, and if anyone makes a comment about my dress, they are going to get melee'd.

[Eric Stephen]

From 2005-2009, 116 pitchers threw at least 500 innings. None walked batters as often as Oliver Perez and his 5.24 BB/9. (Not even Daniel Cabrera, at 5.21!)

His FIP in 2009 was 6.36. I wouldn't touch him with a 60 foot, 6 inch pole.

[Humma Kavula]

It's been a thing going on several days for me. I wrote a long post a few days back, which couldn't have been too important because I've completely forgotten what it was about... but it never showed.

[das411]

Oooo challenge trade slash contract dump thoughts??

How about: JP and Billingsley for Papelbon and Julio Lugo?

[Humma Kavula]

All that said: really, I kinda should be banned. What do I contribute here? N to the O to the thing.

[nsxtasy]

We had an obvious answer at second base, but unfortunately we traded him for Jon Garland. :(

When developing prospects into major leaguers, isn't the usual strategy that they need time in the minors where they'll get more attention, or something to that effect? If so, then DeWitt really needs at least another year at AAA, a full year without getting jerked back and forth between there and the bigs.

I like the O-Dog arbitration offer. Either way, if he accepts or declines, we win. And if he declines, signing Belliard for a one-year seems like an acceptable stopgap until 2011, when DeWitt will (hopefully) be ready. 2B or 3B, you can worry about which one he'll play at that time.

The thing to realize about second base is that it's not a power position, so you can accept something less than you would want at one of the power positions.

I'd considering bringing back Davey Lopes to play second, just to get him out of that damn Fillies uniform...

[Jon Weisman]

I'm told the slow posting this week has been a TypePad-wide problem and isn't related to Dodger Thoughts.

I have no idea why it's taking so long to solve.

[nsxtasy]

Don't expect a big announcement for quite a while. Second base and the #4 and #5 starter are the positions most likely to remain unfilled until late in the off-season, with Ned trying to wait out a late-off-season bargain (like he did with O-Dog and Wolf last winter/spring) and minor leaguers as the backup option if that strategy doesn't work out.

[underdog]

das, I love your contributions here, but please, no Dodger trade ideas for awhile, man. ;-)

[BlueCorona]

I'm not too opposed to Dewitt being the 2nd baseman for 2010, but I'm not too excited about it either. From his small sample size of ML at bats, he's a streaky hitter, and if he hits a bad streak at the wrong time then it can be a nightmare. I also worry that if Dewitt is Plan A, then what is Plan B if Dewitt doesnt work out? That being said, I think he'd make a decent #8 hitter because he's probably one of the most patient hitters the Dodgers have. Combine that with the fact that there isn't a whole lot out there, we might not really have a choice.

Regarding BABIP...I've seen this stat be directly equated with luck over and over again, but I just can't buy into it. Shouldn't something be said for a hitters ability to make solid contact? Sure, hitting always takes a fair amount of luck...but a high BABIP indicates to me the hitter squares up and makes solid contact more often than a player with a low BABIP, who might swing at a "pitchers pitch", roll one over to first, or hit a high amount of weak groundouts. Just my two cents

[Kuofax]

I could see the logic on the Pierre for Castillo swap, but I'm intrigued by Uggla's availability.

Wouldn't a Uggla for Sherril trade work, since the Marlins are looking for a closer. The money might be a bit much for them, since he's arb eligible. How much of a butcher is Uggla in the field? I remember that all star game with the multiple errors, but is he that bad? Would be nice to get another homerun threat at 2nd. Plus, seems like we've got a lot of young arms lining up for bullpen spots.

[Jonny (TAFKAJ)]

Can I get some help with this?... The thought came over me last night that perhaps I am not a great blogger..... :)
Maybe I need some time back in the minors or something....

Last night, I was trying to make a point about he McCourts' handling of the team. Basically, I quite simply believe that as owners of the Los Angeles Dodgers, they have a responsibility to make it all that they can for us fans...Let's face it, they're going to make plenty of money either way. Jamie's court papers paint a very clear picture of this. Simple point about their lack of being truly genuine with us fans. (Do not continually tell your fans that you are truly committed to doing everything necessary to field the best team you can...then fail to do so, meantime having the economic means all the while.)

I think HJoe regarded the point as "preaching"...and that my focus was on the social issues surrounding the divorce.....This was not my intended focus.

KG then responded nicely about the importance of a solid young core as if I don't feel that there is value in a solid minor league system....Again, incorrect.
I totally believe in a solid flow of prospects...You just need to fill your roster with the appropriate veterans to "put you over the top"....even if that proves to be an expensive endeavor.

I feel as if I put all necessary qualifiers and digressions in an effort to "cover all the bases"....my posts would be 10 pages long....Anyway...carry on y'all.

[regfairfield]

Hitters BABIP isn't luck. The quick and dirty calculation for expected BABIP for a hitter is .12+line drive percentage.

[Jack]

There are strawmen out there in which a guy doesnt do much at the minor league level, but then will put it together at the MLB level. History says that it just doesnt happen very often.

It is nice to see Dewitt appear to develop some patience at the minor league level. His power seems lacking though.

[Jon Weisman]

Say hi to ...

http://www.dodgerdivorce.com/

[Terry A.]

In keeping with the post title theme: Hulu's on First!

News today that Hulu.com may not be (bone)headed for a paid-subscription type model in 2010 after all.

But Chase Carey still traded Mike Piazza. And for that he must die. Probably in his late 70s. Of heart disease.

[Humma Kavula]

Hitters BABIP isn't luck. The quick and dirty calculation for expected BABIP for a hitter is .12+line drive percentage.

I have a question about this. I'm not trying to be antagonistic about this -- it's just something I don't understand.

That question is: how can something be luck on one side of the ledger and skill on the other?

For example, BABIP. The best explanation of the numbers, if I understand correctly, is that pitchers have relatively little control over this -- i.e., it's luck and dependent upon fielding.... but that it is not luck for hitters, as you express above. I understand that the numbers show this is true, but regardless, I find that explanation unsatisfying. Why would a pitcher have so much less control over the outcome of a BIP that it is reduced to luck, while a batter's control over it is predictable and repeatable?

A similar question we might ask is about strikeouts. If I understand correctly, there is no better predictor of future success for a pitcher than his strikeout rate, especially compared to walks. But I have heard it said that for hitters, a strikeout is just another out, no different than any other. I understand that the best explanation of the numbers suggests this is true -- but why? How can it be that something that's so good for pitchers is not so bad for hitters?

Again, I'm not trying to start a fight here. I know what the numbers show and I don't want to fight that. I just find it unsatisfying and I'm wondering if there's a better explanation out there than "that's just the way it is."

[Horace Andy]

I like Blake DeWitt and I think the Dodgers do too... but I think they think he's not quite ready yet, so I am betting they sign a Belliard type on the cheap to be a stop-gap. If this Belliard-type doesn't play well, DeWitt is DeWaiting in DeWings. (Sorry)

[pete]

I'm thinking Ned is loving life these days. New contract. The chain-of-command has thinned out. Uber nerd Jeff Fuller isn't roaming the hallways. The FTD dudes aren't poking their heads in Ned's office asking for directions anymore. And most importantly if the Dodgers regress next season the distractions of the divorce may be used as the excuse.

[neoncactus]

I can see them signing a middle of the road FA second baseman, perhaps Belliard, perhaps a Pierre trade to the Mets for Castillo, and then give DeWitt the chance to win the job in spring training. I wouldn't mind seeing a trade for Uggla either. He's not the best defender, but no worse than Belliard, and it gives them a more reliable power bat in the lineup.

Plaschke's such a horrible writer. He takes a subject that could have been interesting, and then spends more than half his article back on his anti-Manny Ramirez soapbox. LAT needs to reassign this guy to write about anything BUT the Dodgers.

[jim hitchcock]

Some thing we're better off just not knowing.

I was checking out Sealy Posturepedic mattresses on line yesterday, and came upon this little gem under `Mattress Trivia':

" Tens of thousands of dust mites, members of the arachnid family, may be sharing your bed every night. The Wall Street Journal reported on February 18, 2000, that the average mattress will double its weight in ten years as a result of being filled with dust mites and their detritus."

[fanerman]

It's worse when you're allergic to dust mites. Because it's not dust mites you're allergic to. It's their feces. Yuck.

[Craig88USC]

Hi!

We just stopped to have lunch in Crescent City at the beautiful
Northwoods Inn.

Heading into Oregon enemy territory shortly...

Oh, two things: Start DeWitt at 2b
Listen to CanuckDodger; he's our friend :)

Also, sign DeBig John w/desavings.
or, at least DeWolf of nearby Denoga Park.

Be bold, Ned... 50% Blakes in the infield!!! :)

[Jack]

Humma,

I think the real question is whether Line Drive % is luck or skill.

Do pitchers consistently give up the same amount of line drive % from year to year?

Do hitters hit the same amount of line drives from year to year?

[Maddz]

Perhaps Casey Blake can teach Blake DeWitt to grow a fantastically amazing beard.

[artieboy]

BTW nsxtasy
>> Honorable mention to Orel, Fernando, Billy, Boomer, Davey, and Piazza.

>>"Who are Billy and Boomer?”

Billy Russel (18) and Steve Yeager (7): Billy for most games played by a Dodger and Yeager for holding onto the ball when Dave Parker flattened him.

I dare you to name any other catcher (post Yeager) to get obliterated by someone the size of Parker and still hold on to the ball.

Scioscia was cheap-shoted by that chump Jack Clark but the Parker-Yeager collision was perfectly legal.

[356man]

The Dodgers should sign Figgy and put him wherever they want.

[SteelMohawk]

Uggla would be nice, but DeWitt would be ok. Manny's contract and health are the teams' biggest concerns. If his wrist needs work and comes back which Manny will we get? If he comes back at all we start restricting our options.

LF, 3B, 2B and 1B could all use some sort of improvement. I like Casey Blake, but if Manny goes and we can trade or acquire a bigger bat, we could move Blake to LF.

I really like Loney, but if a big time 1B can be had for money or a trade, I would take an established power hitter at 1B.

Manny among the other veterans is handcuffing the team to basically looking for one spot, and Uggla's bat is the best out of the bunch.

[DL]

I dare you to name any other catcher (post Yeager) to get obliterated by someone the size of Parker and still hold on to the ball.

Easy. Scioscia. I can't think of any specific instance offhand, but for years he had a repution as the best plate-blocker in the game.

[El Lay Dave]

If you want to hear my appearance discussing the McCourts on KCRW's "Which Way, L.A.?" last night: http://bit.ly/2JFmS

Posted by: Jon Weisman | October 30, 2009 at 09:51 AM

Jon starts at about the 49 minute mark.

[underdog]

Too bad we can't have some kind of mutant combining Uggla's bat with someone like Hu (or O-Dog)'s fielding prowess. Uggla's glove is uggly if I recall.

Meanwhile, you can now follow Dodger prospect Trayvon Robinson on Twitter:
http://twitter.com/TRobinsonAFL

[underdog]

Oh, and prospect Blake Smith as well.

http://twitter.com/Blake_Smith

(Thanks to Diamond L for pointing those out.)

[356man]

Too many Blakes to keep straight. Who's next on the roster, Amanda Blake?

[El Lay Dave]

The Olney/Weisman Q-and-A on the McCourt uncourting is coherent, reasoned, informative, rational, and even-handed, in other words the diametric opposite of the last Plaschke column. Jon sounds well-prepared in the interview. I must admit that since I've read the news, this blog, and other blogs, I kind of knew what Jon's answers were going to be before he gave them, but it was good to hear, particularly in the lucid fashion Jon always presents things. Nice work.

[Blue Gal]

Sorry if this has been covered, but what happened between O'Dawg and Torre? Seems like something other than a mini slump got him benched. Is it because his contract called for mega bucks for post season hits and homers? It seemed as if Hudson went from loving it here to hating it pretty quick. I can't imagine he'll be back.

[68elcamino427]

Coletti will likely persue a method of operations similar to last off season, as nxtasy@10:31 has noted.
Unless Ned has a specific target in mind.
The pieces by Tim Dirkes are very good.
Working deals for cheap value seems to be the order of the day in the recent past when acquiring players (Wolf, Hudson, Manny and Blake). Retaining Manny and Blake have required signifigant expenditures however.
During the Fox years the Dodgers were accused of fielding a team that would contend, drawing fans and interest in the team's quest - hence revenues, but not go all the way.
Second Base is not a position that is critical to fill with a star player in order for the team to perform on a level similar to what we have seen the past two years.
Same holds true for a #4 and #5 starter.
It will be shocking if the Dodgers attempt to trade for Uggla, or try to get an aging high priced player like Cabrrera or Tejeda to move to second.
The Dodgers just don't need to do these things to stay the same rather than improve the offense.
DeWitt, Hu, and Dejesus come with no new additions in team salary.
Same with McDonald and Elbert when looking for more pitching.
Ned will wait and unless something falls in his lap may continue to wait until the trading deadline to improve these positions.
Of course the second baseman and the pitchers will need to contribute enough and the team as a whole will need to play well enough to make taking action at the trade deadline a priority. Unless of course something needs to be done just for the sake of public relations purposes.
Whatever they do, no spending of money on the Dodgers by me until the ownership issue is resolved.
This Mr. Torre is greeted with as he fulfills the last remaining year on his contract - he is the highest paid manager in the MLB right?
The Angels do not operate this way.

[El Lay Dave]

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/los-angeles-dodgers.html

Hudson's contract had no bonuses for post-season performance. He made 99.984% of his 2009 performance bonuses ending up one PA short of collecting the last $10,000.

[Eric Enders]

Canuck's comment up top (which IIRC was originally made in response to a dismissive comment I made about DeWitt) is good and informative, but I still disagree with it even though it makes some legitimate points.

The main thing I take issue with is this:
And it is not like DeWitt hasn't hit well at Triple A before, as he hit.306/.366/.486 in 2008.

To me, that line is evidence that DeWitt hasn't hit well in Triple-A before. I very much disagree with the notion that a .306/.366/.486 line in the PCL, at Las Vegas to boot, is good. It's solidly mediocre. It's the line of someone who would be a below replacement level hitter in the big leagues. Its major league equivalency is .239/.298/.354 for a .234 EQA.

The fact is, Blake DeWitt has never hit particularly well at any level of pro baseball during any season of his career. He has never shown any sign, statistically, of becoming a good MLB hitter someday. All the promise he is said to have comes from draft pedigree, scouting reports, and people analyzing his swing.

And those scouts may be right -- he may in fact be a terrific prospect. He may be a late bloomer like Utley. He may become a good major league player someday. But the odds are against it, I think, and the odds are even more against it happening all of a sudden in 2010. I'm not giving up on DeWitt, but I don't think he's a viable option as the Dodgers' 2010 second baseman. He's a fallback option. He's insurance.

As for who is a viable option... well, not Tony Abreu anymore. I like the Uggla idea if the price is cheap enough. But what I really like is a trade for Kelly Johnson. He's persona non grata in Atlanta now, so he wouldn't cost much, he's 28 years old, and he's been a terrific MLB player as recently as 2008.

[Dave]

How about Chone Figgins?
He has played lots of 2nd base in his career, and it seems like a more natural position for a player his size than 3rd base.

[Dave]

How about Chone Figgins?
He has played lots of 2nd base in his career, and it seems like a more natural position for a player his size than 3rd base.

[El Lay Dave]

The risks I see with Figgins are:

1. He's never been a full-time 2B in the majors and he's played single-digits games there every season since 2005 when he made all of 36 starts there.

2. He's a speed guy who turns 32 before spring training starts.

[Serge]

Offer arbitration to Hudson: It's win-win as someone posted earlier. If the Dog walks, give an incentive-rich offer to Belliard and platoon him at 2B with DeWitt while the kid learns to hit LHPs.

[bhsportsguy]

Cole Hamels gave up 2 home runs to James Loney in the NLCS. Think about that tomorrow for those of you not watching the USC/Oregon game.

[blue22]

I don't understand the comment about his extra-base hits as a percentage of his total hits, especially just after the comment about his BABIP being too low. Assuming his BABIP stabilizes, won't that throw his impressive extra-base-hits-to-total-hits ratio down to a less than ideal level? I'd always assumed that BABIP fluctuations were about singles. You're adding more singles without necessarily adding more extra base hits.

[blue22]

I like the Kelly Johnson idea. He's under team control for two more years, and a 4-some of Blake, DeWitt, Belliard, and Johnson gives you a lot of options at 2B/3B (two lefties, two righties, good balance of offense and defense).

[kinbote]

Have a great weekend, everybody. And have fun in Eugene, Craig :)

[El Lay Dave]

Is Jon's post title a hint to where he thinks DeWitt ends up defensively?

[blue22]

I may regret throwing this name out there, but he seems like a "Ned guy": Placido Polanco?

[CanuckDodger]

blue22,

In AAA, DeWitt's percentage of extra base hits relative to total hits (41%) was far enough above adequate (30%) that you can turn 33 of his outs into singles (making his BA for the season.349) and his extra-base-hit percentage still does not fall below 30%.

[blue22]

Canuck: thanks very much for the context. How do his numbers hold up when looking at extra base hits / AB (isoP?)?

[68elcamino427]

This is a great time for DeWitt to get a real shot at the big time. He has developed good plate discipline. He has a great swing and he shows promise of good line drive type power now that may develop into more than that later. There's only one real way to see what he can do and that is to put him out there. If he does develop more power as he matures, then he becomes more valuable at 3b.
With the set of circumstances the team is facing today is there really much downside to letting him play at second base at least the first half of the upcoming season?
The team can get a real read on how he will perform at the plate and it costs them no new money or talent in a trade.
For the Dodgers, DeWitt just needs to be near "average" as a NL 2b for a plan like this to work for the team.

[underdog]

Speaking of second base, hot news:

SFGate: San Francisco Giants : The Splash : UPDATE: Giants re-sign Freddy Sanchez to two-year, $12 million deal

Discuss.

(Btw, I like Chone Figgins but why does signing him to be f/t starter feel like having Juan Pierre at 2nd?)

[blue22]

I guess what I'm asking, not necessarily how do they "hold up", but that it looks like his isolated power is basically consistent from '08 (.180) to '09 (.170), which supports your point.

But I guess, to Eric E's point, is that sufficient power considering the environment he played in? I don't know the answer to that, but I would guess his bat looks a lot better if he sticks at second base.

Anyhow, time for the weekend to start. Happy Halloween all.

[Humma Kavula]

For the Dodgers, DeWitt just needs to be near "average" as a NL 2b for a plan like this to work for the team.

I decided to see what kind of performance that would require.

I also set a minimum PA at 400. That was arbitrary, and if anyone thinks I shoulda picked a different number, I'll try that again.

There were 12 NL 2B with 400 PA last year. #1, of course, is Chase Utley, and he's off the charts. #2 (O-Dog) through #7 (Luis Castillo) are all kinda bunched together, and #8 (Craig Counsell) isn't all that far behind. Then there is a big drop and you get Barmes, Eckstein, Matsui, Fontenot.

So that's pretty clear: for DeWitt to work out, he has to be as good (or better!) next year as Craig Counsell was last year. Counsell hit .285/.357/.408 in 459 PA.

[Humma Kavula]

By the way, looking at that list of 2B last year, I've decided that the Mets would have to be nuts to trade Castillo for Pierre. He's overpriced, sure, but he's by no means the Mets' biggest problem. Unless somebody like Daniel Murphy can play second base for them, or they sign Hudson, their problems aren't really solved by trading Castillo for Pierre.

If they can sign Hudson, though, that deal starts making more sense.

[Deuces are Wild]

We should trade for Rays minor leaguer Matt Joyce, convert him to 2nd base, and platoon him with Blake DeWitt.
Having a Joyce/DeWitt platoon, we should then proceed with eliminating the Journey 8th inning song, and replacing it with the "Three's Company" theme song.

[Kevin]

This is an interesting topic. For most of the season, I felt that Hudson was playing very good baseball and was a breath of fresh air. He seemed to track down balls that used to just trickle up the middle. But by July, his at bats and weren't as good. I suspected his wrist wasn't in good shape. Nonetheless, I was satisfied and felt as if he were an important part of this team so I was a little shocked when he was benched. I thought it might have had something to do with his incentive laden contract. So, I asked Simers about this. He basically said that O-dog had fallen out of favor with the coaching staff who doubted his health and his return to LA in 2010. It might be time to give Dewitt a chance if the guy isn't ready by now, he'll never be. I don't care who we get, but we need a real consistent lead off hitter who won't choke in the NLCS. My crazy idea: teach Pierre to field right handed. Who knows? Maybe his right arm is better than his left.

[Deuces are Wild]

I'm not sure about Kelly Johnson. What's next? Should we sign Shelley Duncan and bring up Jamie Hoffman? What is this, a girl's softball team?

[Craig88USC]

Thanks, Kinbote and Underdog. I actually like the Freddy signing. Good for him. :)

Now that we're all settled in Eugene, I'm getting hungry...

Roast Duck Stuffed with Apples and Grapes

Yield: 4 Servings (3 for me)
Ingredients:

1 Duck, 5½ pound, dressed

Stuffing:
Duck giblets
½lb Mushrooms, coarsely chopped
4 Greening apples, cored and sliced, but not peeled
1½ cups Seeded (or seedless) halved Sweet grapes
2cups Unblanched hazelnuts

[Humma Kavula]

I need to stop thinking about Pierre-for-Castillo, because the more I think about it, the less sense it makes for the Mets. As long as he's putting up numbers closer to 2009 than 2008, he's much more valuable than Pierre is.

So let's say that Hudson is available for, say, $9 million next year (as part of a multi-year deal). The Mets could trade Castillo for Pierre (about a wash in money) and start Hudson at 2B. For $18 million or so, they have Pierre + Hudson.

Or they could go out and see what kind of LF they can get for $9 million and keep Castillo. Could Bobby Abreu be had for that? If so, which would you take, Abreu + Castillo or Pierre + Hudson?

[El Lay Dave]

"It might be time to give Dewitt a chance if the guy isn't ready by now, he'll never be."

I disagree with the "he'll never be" part. Next year is only his age 24 season. He doesn't have tons of time left to prove himself, but next year is not make or break at the major-league level. A good AAA performance next year would also be a good step forward, leading to a shot next year.

[Horace Andy]

The only problem with Kelly Johnson is that you'd have to trade to get him. Sure it would cost a lot less in opposing value than an Uggla, but the Braves would want someone on the level of Belisario or Troncoso. Perhaps those are easily replaceable parts, and surely that's selling low on Johnson, who had a OPS over 800 just one season ago and was very well regarded in the minors (much more than Blake DeWitt, for example).

[underdog]

Craig, as a Dodger fan, I like the Sanchez signing, too. ;-)

[Humma Kavula]

I would have no problem trading both Bellisario AND Troncoso for Kelly Johnson.

Rule of thumb: in any trade, the team that acquired the middle reliever(s) is the loser.

[Craig88USC]

There is no reason for the Angels to NOT re-sign Bobby Abreu imo.

And Juan Pierre as the Dodgers fourth outfielder again is a luxury we can afford (again, imo)
and I (along with many fans I know) would LOVE.

Re-signing Randy Wolf and/or better should be LA's top priority. The '10 club can win MORE than
95 games with that tweak ...along with the youngsters getting ONE year better for the most part. : )

[Craig88USC]

Humma, no trades from you for the next 12 months! ; )

[Sam DC]

Posted by: Deuces are Wild | October 30, 2009 at 04:09 PM

It's a late entry, but I've got to think that one locks up COTM.

[WBB]

The Freddy Sanchez signing is great news for every other team in the division.

[Jon Weisman]

NPUT

[Paul]

I have a question about Plaschke's article. He seemingly blames the McCourts for a deterioration of the atmosphere at Dodger Stadium. Since I am an east-coaster, I only make it to road games. Do those of you who get the privilege of going to Dodger Stadium agree with Plaschke's opinion about DS, or is this just one more thing he is complaining about just because he enjoys complaining?

[stephen]

I want to buy the Dodgers. It may take me about 20 years. PEACE

[FONZIE]

The Dodgers need an ACE pitcher & a left handed power bat.
Furcal at shortstop only plays when he is going to be a free agent, Casey Blake needs to be replaced by Blake DeWitt.
Manny needs to start acting like a grown man in his final year with the Dodgers & not a spoiled brat.
I expect Kemp, Ethier, Billingsley, Kershaw & Broxton to match or build on their 2009 success.
Torre as a manager is only good as his placers but having an ace in the rotation would have gotten this team to the fall classic.

[Marcg]

DeWitt only hit .256 this year at Triple A but remember, this guy was up and down so much this past season he must have felt like a yo-yo. Don't hold that against him.
If I were Orlando Hudson I would feel slighted, too. He was such a big part of the first half success of the team and didn't deserve to sit so long at the end. It wasn't like he was platooned. He was benched above and beyond the injury. His glove is second to none in the National League. I'd like to see him back. But, that won't happen unless he's guaranteed to start and...THAT WON'T HAPPEN.

[Soupking]

The Dodgers have next to nothing to trade in terms of prospects, are going through a divorce, and the "ace" market is shallow.

One of the first things Ned mentioned after his affirmed extension is that he plans on expanding scouting. My guess is that if the Dodgers make any significant moves, like usual it will be off the radar, since the above mentioned are going to keep the Dodgers payroll to an absolute minimum.

Personally, I say re-sign Wolf, platoon Belliard/DeWitt, and let go of Hudson for the draft picks and try to put together a package for another pitcher until Manny is finally out of the picture. The Dodgers already have an awesome team. All they really need is Wolf and one more veteran pitcher.

[88]

dodgers already have the personnel to take them to the post season. putting dewitt at 2nd isn't gonna make a difference. so we shouldn't go crazy this offseason with free agent signings.

i feel the key transactions will be in midseason, like what philly did with cliff lee or what we did in '08 with manny. at least by mid-season you know the type of player you're getting to finish the season. a lot of times these preseason signings are busts because they're were only playing for the contract the previous year.

[88]

dodgers already have the personnel to take them to the post season. putting dewitt at 2nd isn't gonna make a difference. so we shouldn't go crazy this offseason with free agent signings.

i feel the key transactions will be in midseason, like what philly did with cliff lee or what we did in '08 with manny. at least by mid-season you know the type of player you're getting to finish the season. a lot of times these preseason signings are busts because they're were only playing for the contract the previous year.

[Soupking]

+1 to 88's post

[Hotblack Desiato]

For example, BABIP. The best explanation of the numbers, if I understand correctly, is that pitchers have relatively little control over this -- i.e., it's luck and dependent upon fielding.... but that it is not luck for hitters, as you express above. I understand that the numbers show this is true, but regardless, I find that explanation unsatisfying. Why would a pitcher have so much less control over the outcome of a BIP that it is reduced to luck, while a batter's control over it is predictable and repeatable?

For batters, BABIP is a skill. Better hitters have a higher BABIP. It takes several seasons to get an idea for what a hitter's "natural" BABIP is, but once you've figured that out, you can chalk up higher or lower BABIPs to luck.

Pitchers cannot control their BABIP for the most part. The reason every pitcher should have the same BABIP is because they face the same hitters over the course of the season. It is a skill for hitters, not for pitchers, and if one pitcher has a lower BABIP than another, it means he was luckier against the same group of hitters than the other pitcher.

[NYBlue]

Put aside the statistics, I really would like Dewitt to have his chance. He has one essential quality that will help this team - HEART and a blue collar approach to the game.

As for batting stats this year, I think its tough to look at them without acknowledging that he was shuffled back and forth so many times this year, he was set up for having an awful year.

[Gary]

I agree with a few in here, I would offer Orlando Hudson arbitraition. Blake Dewitt could very well be a good choice, and I would love to see Dan Uggla. I think another choice that might be worth considering is Brian Roberts from Baltimore Orioles, to start with he adds to the team speed, defense, and can bat leadoff because lets face it Furcal had a bad year and if Juan Pierre isn't playing who bats leadoff?

[Soupking]

+1 on NYBlue's comment:

People are stating how DeWitt's numbers aren't increasing in productivity after making a good run at being a good nomination for bean bag of the year (distant 2nd behind Pierre). That's very common especially between minor and major league transition.

Of course, nobody talks about Loney's minor league average after he was snubbed from the '07 roster after making clutch hits in the '06 playoffs. His average dropped over .100 points and his power all but disappeared in his return to the minors in '07.

In '09, Loney hit .281 and was third place in both RBIs and triples for the Dodgers.

For DeWitt, I'd be more concerned about his defensive stats at 2B.

If Belliard could play like a free agent for one more year (24G - 5 HR, 17 RBI, .351), I'd say offer Hudson arbitration. Once he declines, then platoon 2B with those two and call it a day. Then develop possibilities for another starter. Play ball.