Possibility and limitation

It has to be heartening to the Dodgers community, if scary for me on a personal level, that I can take two days with my family at Legoland and find that online Dodgers coverage has not suffered in the slightest. I like to think I’ve done some good work over the years, but it’s pretty clear that Dodgers blogging’s MVB for 2009 is True Blue L.A. Smart, thoughtful, relentless and fun (and without the weight of my personal anxieties) -- the site has simply become a powerhouse.

I have a couple more weekend trips planned for 2009, and will otherwise be trying to maintain my relevance and justify The Times' investment in me. But with Eric Stephen, Phil Gurnee and Brendan Scolari around, supplemented by the several other Dodgers sites that have flowered, Dodgers fans never have to worry about being abandoned.

* * *

With the Dodgers poised ... and poised ... and poised to clinch the National League West during my Carlsbad caravan, I had some time to reflect on the rapidly concluding season and the imminent NL playoffs.

I allowed myself infrequent updates on the games Sunday and Monday, and in both cases was shocked by how quickly each contest went south. I was eager to see the team clinch -- though at this point, not out of fear that they wouldn't. I brooded over the Dodgers' defeats for about 30 seconds, and brooded about how people would react to the defeats for much longer.

Contrary to some popular opinion, I don't live to see the Dodgers blindly supported. My mission here, from the blog's earliest days, has been to contribute toward a search for truth about the Dodgers. Earlier in the decade, that involved a lot more pointing out flaws than it does now.

Day in and day out, there's a real imbalance in Dodgers postgame reaction. I addressed that in my only comment on Dodger Thoughts in the past 48 hours:

Dodgers winning: "Hey, that's great. Don't know what's gonna happen next, but this is cool."

Dodgers losing: "Pathetic. They're not even trying. They're hopeless. They have no chance of winning (in the postseason)."

After a season of this, does it really need to be pointed out that one of these reactions is over the top?

The upbeat crowd never makes guarantees. And yet the cynics claim they're the realists.

You can say this bugs me more than it should, but it sure does bug me.

During spring training, one of my main arguments about the Dodgers was that many people were downgrading the Dodgers starting rotation without looking at it in context. They would say the Dodgers rotation had holes that would undermine the team, without acknowledging the holes that other teams had.

Since then, I feel like more than anything else this season, I've been in a season-long quest to ask people to look at the Dodgers in a big-picture fashion. To note that their use of relievers, while tops in the league, was only of a marginal difference compared with other teams. To note that they weren't the only team that left runners on base, that they weren't the only team to lose to bad teams. And so on.

I wasn't asking people to put on blinders when evaluating the Dodgers; I was asking them to take them off with regards to the other teams in baseball, at least in the National League.

I feel, for the most part, that I've failed. There are some people who consistently get what I'm saying, and others who disagree with me on one point or another -- but with whom I'm generally having a healthy debate. For example, Gurnee and I are passionate fans who disagree every so often, but I always feel we're more interested in learning than in being right.

But there are others (I'm talking both inside and outside the Dodger Thoughts comments and have no single person specifically in mind) who implicitly or explicitly rebel against my philosophy. Their approach is ignore context, latch onto one or more easily accessible fears, assume the worst and wait to see if they'll be surprised. 

They're not necessarily wrong. There's certainly no rule that you have to bring an evenhanded mind to sports, and there is something to be said for managing expectations. And though I don't do this with the Dodgers, I do it in other areas of my life. I dread some things that I'm facing that I've tried to talk myself out of, to no avail.

But I do find there's a difference about being worried inside my own head and being worried in a public forum. If I were to write something's going to go wrong when I take my next weekend trip, you'd expect someone to step in and say, "Well, maybe you're being too negative." And if I were to write the same thing over and over again, you'd expect someone to step in and say, "You're definitely being too negative."

(And, of course, if I were an Internet troll who only wrote negative things for no other reason than to piss people off, you'd expect someone to delete the comment and wonder how I could possibly not have anything better to do with my life.)

I bring to Dodger Thoughts a certain bias, but that bias is not "Think positive about the Dodgers at all costs."  The bias is this: Life can be so hard -- why let baseball make it worse?

It's one thing to be realistic about the Dodgers' chances -- they'll be in a dogfight in every playoff game, whoever the opponent is, home-field advantage or not. It's another to go out of your way, consciously or not, and suggest that this team cannot win. When you look at other teams and see their flaws and slumps, and factor in how much chance is involved in the game, there's simply no reason to give up on the Dodgers (or any playoff team) at this point. There is no objective basis for it.

If you want to lower expectations so you'll only be relieved or excited rather than disappointed, that's a legitimate personal choice. But arguing artificially lowered expectations as gospel isn't. Not here, anyway.

The Dodgers have clinched a playoff spot and are about to clinch a division title. Life is hard, and they’ve done the hard part. The NL pennant or the World Series would be more memorable achievements, but neither is a greater test of talent or will.

As things stand now, there is nothing this Dodgers team can't do. Whether they'll do it is another matter that nobody -- nobody -- has an answer for. But it is not optimistic to say they will contend for a title. It is realistic.

And so I just find myself with very little stomach for those who act like they know the Dodgers' fate better than the rest. Not once have I guaranteed what the Dodgers would do in 2009. I've only talked about what they're capable of. And I don't mean "capable" like we're all capable of winning the lottery -- I mean sincerely qualified.

I can't stop people from feeling otherwise, but I sure was hoping I'd be better at persuading folks this year.  But as much as I've enjoyed 2009, in no year have I felt my limitations on this blog more acutely.

Tonight, Chad Billingsley takes the hill for the Dodgers, capable of greatness, performance to be determined in this ever-evolving world that never fails to surprise.

Dodgers at Padres,
7:05 p.m.
Today's lineup

Rafael Furcal, SS Orlando Hudson, 2B Andre Ethier, RF Manny Ramirez, LF Matt Kemp, CF James Loney, 1B Russell Martin, C Juan Castro, 3B Chad Billingsley, P

Marlins 4, Braves 1 (fifth inning)

Phillies 5, Astros 2 (fifth inning)

Reds 4, Cardinals 1 (fifth inning)

Brewers at Rockies, 5:40 p.m.

[The Dodger Thoughts sidebar and commenting guidelines]

Comments

[TheAnc]

Thanks Jon. Welcome back. I hope you had a great time at Legoland. Did you go to the aquarium next door? If so, how was it?

[Craig88USC]

LAT'd -

"New post up top.

Posted by: Jon Weisman | September 29, 2009 at 05:39 PM"

Yesss! : )

Posted by: Craig88USC | September 29, 2009 at 05:42 PM

[underdog]

Thanks, Jon. Good (Dodger) thoughts.

Good talk, Russ. (Sorry, channeling Vacation for a second.)

Seems like quite a few of the playoff-bound teams have been shuffling in place this past week. Nothing extraordinary about that but good to realize, for a perspective check. That said, I sure would like them to win tonight.

And speaking of all this, I posted this at end of prev thread but it made me chuckle:

funny tweet from the host of Wait Wait Don't Tell Me just now:

petersagal: Red Sox heading to postseason like my 11 yr old eats vegetables: screaming, weeping, running other way.

[Bob Hendley]

Go, Bills, Go!

[Alex41592]

That was worth the wait. Good to have you back.

Everyone think good thoughts for Billingsley tonight.

[Alex41592]

5-1 Reds Bot 6.

[Bob Hendley]

Nice nod to TBLA. Great crew over there.

[Blue Velvet Jones]

I'm very much looking forward to hearing Vin announce the Dodgers as the NL West champs tonight, one way or another.

[Alex41592]

Bruce hits his second home run and blows it open. Piñeiro gives up his third home run of the game.

7-1 Reds.

[underdog]

But... but... I thought the Cards were unbeatable!

This world is spinning and so is my head!

[Alex41592]

Phillies also blow their game open.

[Craig88USC]

"The bias is this: Life can be so hard -- why let baseball make it worse?"

Oh yes. You are so wise, Jon Weisman. :)

[bhsportsguy]

Nicely done.

And to point out again, Eric has some nice pieces regarding if being "hot" matters and also about Matt Kemp. And there is a continuing look at the Dodgers' minor league system at TBLA.

[Jim]

Any update on the beard's status? Castro starting at third doesn't seem to bode well. Just wondering if I've missed something.... Good to have you back Jon. Thanks for the blog. I'm an Angelino living in Seattle and you all have kept me sane this season. Much appreciated.

[Alex41592]

Rockies take the lead. 1-0.

[Craig88USC]

Cardinals 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 - - ... 1 6 0
Reds 0 3 1 0 0 3 - - - ... 7 8 0

Cards could drop back of the Phillies in the HFA race AND guess who's sittin' pretty on top! : )

[bigcpa]

Yikes, with the intro about other Dodger blogs and the talk of failure I thought this was a retirement post. Don't scare a guy like that.

[Jon Weisman]

We didn't go to the aquarium just because the kids like Legoland itself so much.

[Jon Weisman]

Posted by: bhsportsguy | September 29, 2009 at 05:55 PM

They covered almost every possible angle.

And of course, the blogs together did a nice takedown of that hit piece on Kemp.

[Jack Dawkins]

So this weekend we play the Rockies, Cardinals the Brewers, Phillies and Florida, and Braves and Nationals. My gut tells me the Phillies have the better chance to end up #2 out of this. With 2 games up in the loss column and 5 to play I feel pretty good we stay #1. The big issue to me is whether the Braves can pass the Rockies. I would prefer to see that happen, but it makes this weekend series relevant. We should clinch by then, so will Joe respect the WC race and not rest the entire roster? Perhaps that will be the push we need to play better and guarantee the #1 spot.

To me the best record in the league is always the most impressive prize, as it is the most difficult to accomplish.

[Jim]

They're all tied up in Colorado

[Craig88USC]

Won't you come Homer Bailey?

In Cincy Tonight IP H R ER BB SO
Bailey, Homer ... 6.2 7 1 1 1 7

Thanks for helpin' LA, HB!

[bhsportsguy]

Phillies have the tiebreaker over St. Louis. So a 1 game lead is effectively 2.

I am sure by the end of the week someone will call Elias or MLB to confirm that.

[Craig88USC]

...make that NOW a full 7 strong innings against St. Louis tonight for Bill Bailey's little brother. :).

[Craig88USC]

Marlins/Braves now tied at 4

[miketink]

I need 3 Nicaraguans currently on ML BB rosters. I have Padilla and W. Lopez. Who's the 3rd, please?

[Phenomenal Smith]

Homefield advantage is determined by six guys in a room in New York that is loaded with cans of Diet Coke, boxes of Snackwells, and several report cards with F grades in math.

[Jim]

miketink
Cabrera from SD

[Phenomenal Smith]

Everth Cabrera is from Nicaragua.

[Craig88USC]

Snackwells ... mmm mmm good

[Phenomenal Smith]

The surprising thing is that some knew that Wilton Lopez was from Nicaragua.

Or in the majors.

I certainly didn't know him. That's like only knowing Jose Carreras among the Three Tenors.

[El Lay Dave]

Everth Cabrera, a member of tonight's Dodger opposition, is from Nicaragua.

[68elcamino427]

Dodger love.

Life is hard.

Playing in 150 baseball games in five months is hard too.
Maybe it's harder for the players who know their team's not going anywhere this year ... at least they get paid for it.

This is a great season to be a Dodger fan.

[Jim]

Marquis walks in a run - 2-1 Mil E wah K

[miketink]

Thank you guys. I knew Lopez because the Phillies radio announcer told me in the pre-game but he said there were 3 but didn't say the others. I guess I could have googled but it was fun to ask you and you came through.

[kid4lif]

At this point, I think I'd rather see a slumping Cardinals team than a thriving Braves team in the NLDS. (See Rockies 2007). Anyone else?

[yoshshmenge]

two to one, brewers over rox, bottom 3

[Craig88USC]

I w-a-n-t
t-o f-a-c-e
P-h-i-l-l-y.

This time it's personal.
Payback for last year. ;)

[Phenomenal Smith]

Marlins back ahead 5-4. Twins pull to within 5-4 in Detroit going to the bottom of the 8th. Presumably, Rodney will be trying to close it out. Verlander is over 125 pitches.

[Brian]

Jon, thanks for the thoughts. As a fan for going on 45 years, I try not to get too high nor too low when it comes to the Dodgers. There have been times after a tough loss where I have to tell myself it's only a game. It is just baseball, and we need to keep that in perspective. I remain optimistic about the Dodgers postseason chances, and refuse to give in to the naysayers. Of course I will be disappointed if they fail, but will never lose my faith in this team.

[Phenomenal Smith]

And Granderson makes it 6-4 Tigers.

[Craig88USC]

Cards fold like a cheap red suit

... and lose 7-2

[Ken Noe]

Thanks Jon. That's the sort of writing that keeps me here when frankly I've given up on nearly all of my other once-favorite sites. Plus, I'd love to see that Legoland, having been to the one in England. We're definitely a Lego family.

[OhioVic]

Marlins re-take the lead in the top of the 7th, 5-4.

kid4lif, I've been rooting against playing St.Louis because I feel they have the toughest top of the rotation (Wainwright and Carpenter) and that Pujols guy is a pretty good hitter, but I hear you. That all said, it's starting to look like the Cards are the likely NLDS opponent.

[Paul]

Anyone else notice that the Marlins took out Josh Johnson after 5 innings (and promptly gave up the lead)? Would they have done that if the game meant anything to them?

[Hollywood Joe]

I am interested to know the playoff match-ups, I want to know who the Dodgers will face

but

I really don't care who they face, like not at all. I can't even get a shrug out of myself about it

and welcome back Jon - as always you were missed

and nice shout out to TBLA. I don't comment there often because I find it hard enough to follow one conversation, but I read those guys religiously and really love what I get from it

[kid4lif]

Ohio, the only team in playoff contention that seems to be getting consistency out of the starting rotation is the Braves. The Dodgers, Phils, Cards, and Rockies are certainly showing some increasing weakness in the rotation. Fortunately for the Dodgers they have 6 to make 4.

[Phenomenal Smith]

The Marlins are mathematically still in the race. I think Johnson was taken out with "an abundance of caution."

There's still a chance he might have to pitch again.

Not a good one.

[Marty Leadman]

I'll be the skipping record. I don't care who we play nor when in the playoffs. All they need to do is win.

[Paul]

kid4lf, I agree with you about the braves, but my view may be tainted because I have a deep dislike for the braves thanks to my in-laws. I personally want to see the phils in round 1 because their 2 aces have struggled recently, and they have no bullpen to back them up.

[gpellamjr]

Jon--

I remember when I first started reading this blog right after the '05 season ended. Then you, and the majority of commenters here, were constantly being accused of being too negative about the Dodgers. That gets to the issue. You, and most of the commenters who flock here to read your work, are responding to the situation. When the Dodger management is making bad decisions, the players playing badly, and, accordingly, are not winning, you criticize in the hope of figuring out what's wrong. When management makes good decision, the players play well, and, accordingly, are winning, you point out the positive as well as the negative, in hope of figuring out why they're winning.

It's pretty simple. You are positive when the team does well, negative when the team does poorly. Makes sense to me.

The problem is--the people who want to be exceedingly negative about the team with the best record in the NL (for some reason) probably didn't have the patience to read your whole post.

[Bob Hendley]

Might miss this one, as I am taking my visiting sister to dinner. She transplanted to SF and became a giants fan. Sweet revenge, her daughter roots for the A's.

[Marty Leadman]

For Hollywood Joe:

Tsunami (of pretty small size) expected to hit California coast at 9 p.m.

[Paul]

I wonder who the phils will bring in if it is still a 3 run lead in the top of the 9th? I hope it is Lidge.

[jimishelter]

Jon, I read DT everyday. I don't post much, but I appreciate the tone you and the regular posters set here. Keep up the great work.

[Hollywood Joe]

thanks for the notice Marty

but at 9PM I will be wearing my Dodger footie PJs (god I wish that part was true) with my bottom firmly ensconced in my favorite easy chair (this part is surely true)

I guess I will have to wait until the next murderous natural disaster to fulfill my idiot fantasies

and I am fairly certain Matt Kemp would have caught that ball Curtis

[Craig88USC]

Goin' to the 8th - It's gettin' scary for Atlanta!

LandSharks 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 - - ... 5 10 0
BraveOnes 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 - - ... 4 6 0

[miketink]

Paul, Josh Johnson's last 4 games before tonight: IP 5,5,6,5: pitches 82, 89, 100, 92. Tonight 5 IP, 91 pitches.

[Paul]

Come on, miketink, why ruin my good story with facts?

[Paul]

Tying run at the plate with 1 out for the 'Stros in Philly! And Lidge isn't even in the game.

[underdog]

I think Josh Johnson was pulled because he had to get ready to play QB vs. the Redskins.

[underdog]

Meanwhile, yay, it's Vin Scully!

[google boy]

Oh wow, this guy went to my high school!

[underdog]

Raffy continues to be as hot as all get-out.

I just wanted to use the phrase "all get-out."

[jimishelter]

Karros picks Broxton for MVP. I can dig it.

[Craig88USC]

The Dogs ARE loose!!

[Phenomenal Smith]

What should the Dodgers be rendering unto the Padres pitcher?

[Alex41592]

The Phillies did hold on and win.

[underdog]

Don't help this guy out, Andre.

[Alex41592]

Dodgers are at it again.

[underdog]

Will there be a blog post by Oberjuerge about Raffy Furcal now?

[Phenomenal Smith]

One more throw and there would have been a phone number!

4-3-4-3-6-5

[ucladodger]

Ethier's complete inability to hit lefties is really the only thing that concerns me about the Phillies. If they throw Lee, Happ, Hamels, and Lee again, they can throw 4 lefties in 5 games, basically nullifying Ethier. That would really hurt.

[Alex41592]

Rockies tie it up at 2.

[Phenomenal Smith]

So Adam Lind hits three home runs and when he bats in the 9th, he gets hit by a pitch and nobody gets kicked out? Are the Red Sox pitchers that beknighted?

[Craig88USC]

Chad B good!

[jpg]

Thanks for the shout out Jon, you and all the old timers here know full well that if it wasn't for Dodger Thoughts weaning Eric and myself the current TBLA would be nothing like you see today. I'm just sorry we are so busy with TBLA that we cannot participate here on an everyday basis. I knew Eric was going to help TBLA, I had no idea he was going to be such a powerhouse. For TBLA he's like our Andre Ethier scouted as a 3.5 who became the best player on the team. Just getting out of his way is the best thing I do.
I don't want to make this long but it was just a little more then two years ago that I met Eric for the first time at a DT game and he was congratulating me on getting the TBLA gig. He had a nice demeanor combined with a real smile and I thought we hit it off pretty good in how we perceive baseball. Little did I know that two years later he would have taken the sleepy little blog and turned it into one of SB Nations biggest successes.
Without you, it is very doubtful we'd be blogging in front of anyone. Thanks for everything.

[underdog]

Nice start for Bills. One inning at a time, kiddo, one inning at a time.

[Alex41592]

Red Sox denied.

I wonder if they'll stick around until 1 a.m to see the final of the Rangers/Angels game.

[underdog]

That was very close at first. Just one bison hoof away from safe.

[Phenomenal Smith]

Last call for the Braves in Atlanta. They're down 5-4 in the 9th.

[Craig88USC]

Rockies tied in their 6th ... bases loaded ... no outs ...

[Alex41592]

Rockies take a 3-2 lead.

[Craig88USC]

... Torrealba at bat } SAC FLY

Rocks take the lead.

[Alex41592]

Braves lose and Rockies add another on an ugly play.

A Rockies win would put them in great position to win the wild card.

[Craig88USC]

...Hawpe up now, one out, two on } Brad makes something happen.

Colo up 2 runs.

[underdog]

Nice 'n easy so far, for Chillingsley.

[underdog]

And stick around jpg, just keep two browser screens open. ;-)

[Blue Velvet Jones]

Please welcome our newest Dodger fan to the fold...

http://bit.ly/GDlgl

[Craig88USC]

Brave fans will be HUGE Dodger fans this weekend.

[dsm9412]

Jon, for what it's worth, you convinced me.

[Craig88USC]

Hang in there 'Dre on this lefty.

[Craig88USC]

"Lefty smefty" 'Dre says as he rips that ball foul!!!

[Alex41592]

13 pitch at bat but nothing to show for it.

[Phenomenal Smith]

Well, that was anticlimactic.

[whodat807]

Hello all. The east coast trip made it a lot harder for me to watch the games, which is funny, since I live on the east coast. I'm a fan of the 10 PM ET start times, gives me a chance to finish my work before turning on the game.

Love hearing Vin again. It feels like it has been forever. I think I'm going to sync the radio broadcast with the playoff TV broadcasts, so hopefully I won't have to listen to anybody other than Vin for the rest of the season (aside from Steiner/Monday for innings 4-6).

Ramos sure had to work hard for that scoreless inning.

[Craig88USC]

Top of the 8th -

Beer Makers 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 - - ... 2 6 2
Coors Makers 1 0 0 0 0 3 1 - - ... 5 7 0

[Alex41592]

Hooked the pole.

[SteelMohawk]

Solo shots are not the greatest hit to give up, but far from the worst.

[Craig88USC]

3 outs - That's ok, Ch Ch Chad, Only one run ... We laugh at one run

deficits this season. Ha!