How the Dodgers and Rockies match up

Though the Colorado Rockies play the San Francisco Giants on Monday while the Dodgers are idle, I thought I'd jump ahead and show how the Rockies and Dodgers match up for their upcoming three-game series beginning Tuesday.

The Dodgers have an extra player listed; Tony Abreu will probably be optioned when Vicente Padilla is activated, unless a burned-out pitcher becomes a candidate for a temporary demotion.

Carlos Gonzalez is not listed in the Rockies' starting outfield because he badly cut his hand this weekend and isn't expected to play. Josh Fogg is making his first start of 2009 because Aaron Cook went onto the disabled list. Colorado might do more fine-tuning before Tuesday, but I'm working off the best information I have tonight.

Statistics are through Saturday's games.

Dodgers	PA	EQA		EQA	PA	Rockies
Russell Martin	458	.255	C	.259	307	Chris Iannetta
James Loney	506	.265	1B	.302	492	Todd Helton
Orlando Hudson	523	.284	2B	.252	468	Clint Barmes
Rafael Furcal	519	.243	SS	.291	474	Troy Tulowitzki
Casey Blake	477	.292	3B	.260	380	Ian Stewart
Manny Ramirez	298	.336	LF	.248	312	Ryan Spilborghs
Matt Kemp	506	.311	CF	.279	444	Dexter Fowler
Andre Ethier	530	.309	RF	.299	460	Brad Hawpe
Brad Ausmus	89	.271	C	.233	128	Yorvit Torrealba
Mark Loretta	169	.212	IF	.224	335	Garrett Atkins
Juan Castro	101	.257	IF	.170	54	Omar Quintanilla
Juan Pierre	347	.282	OF	.299	271	Seth Smith
Tony Abreu	8	.225	IF/OF	.293	191	Carlos Gonzalez

The main advantages offensively for Colorado are at first base and shortstop. At every other starting position, as well as the bench as a whole, the Dodgers are either in the lead or in a virtual tie. I suppose recent momentum might taint some of that advantage, but I don't see the Rockies overwhelming the Dodgers offensively.

Dodgers	IP	ERA+		ERA+	IP	Rockies
Clayton Kershaw	139.67	142	SP	100	125	Jason Hammel
Randy Wolf	169.67	126	SP	202	40	Josh Fogg
Vicente Padilla	108	92	SP	95	141.67	Jorge de la Rosa
Jonathan Broxton	58	142	RP	145	51.67	Huston Street
George Sherrill	53	243	RP	110	35	Matt Daley
Ronald Belisario	69.33	154	RP	180	25	Franklin Morales
Hong-Chih Kuo	15.33	119	RP	----	11	Rafael Betancourt
Ramon Troncoso	69.33	154	RP	47	59	Adam Eaton
James McDonald	47.33	100	RP	120	47	Joe Beimel
Jeff Weaver	68.33	114	RP	17	0.33	Matt Herges
Guillermo Mota	60	122	RP
Charlie Haeger	14	218	SP	133	166.33	Ubaldo Jimenez
Chad Billingsley	155.67	113	SP	127	163.33	Jason Marquis

Hammel has a 7.02 ERA at Coors Field this season. Fogg's longest outing in 2009 is 4 1/3 innings (68 pitches). We'll give De La Rosa, who strikes out more than a batter an inning, the edge in Game 3.

No grand conclusions intended or implied, however. The teams are close enough at this point that looking at them on paper is nothing more than a prelude to what should be an intense series for August.

Two parting thoughts:

1) Are those who are losing patience with Manny Ramirez offensively now the same that lost patience with Andre Ethier in May? I'm not saying that the two are equals, but rather suggesting people think twice before they assume the worst.

2) Dodger fans want the Dodgers to respond positively to the pressure.  Can Dodger fans do the same?

Comments

[Bill Grabararkewitz]

1) Ethier is 27 and Manny is 37 and has not looked right to these tired old eyes since he came back. Whether it's age, being off the PEDs, an injury, or a slump, I don't know, but there's a difference as far as I'm concerned: Ethier still looked okay even when he was in his doldrums; Manny looks consistently overmatched. (But, for that matter, I'm also "losing patience" with Loney and Martin.)

2) Dodger fans -- even the most pessimistic -- always want the team to respond positively, but we've seen this pattern of going into prolonged funks and slumps -- especially after the ASG -- and generally stinking up the joint before and will see it again. The question for me is how far they'll fall behind the Rox and Giants before they turn it around and whether it'll be too late to recover.

[whodat807]

2) Dodger fans -- even the most pessimistic -- always want the team to respond positively, but we've seen this pattern of going into prolonged funks and slumps -- especially after the ASG -- and generally stinking up the joint before and will see it again. The question for me is how far they'll fall behind the Rox and Giants before they turn it around and whether it'll be too late to recover.

Posted by: Bill Grabararkewitz | August 23, 2009 at 11:06 PM

I'd be very surprised if the Dodgers fall out of first place during any point during the remainder of the season. I think we'll split in Colorado, the Rockies and Giants will continue to beat up on each other, and the Dodgers will feast on inferior competition. I'd put money on it.

[jasonungar]

please make the talk of benching Manny for Pierre a rule violation. (lol)

[JQM]

Not sure if this was talked about much during earlier posts, but I'm remark about the bees thing here now because I was at the game, sitting in Section 309 of the LF Pavilion all game long.

First, the bees were clearly headed our way during the 7th inning stretch. We noticed them sitting over the middle of the field and slowly moving our way. It took about 3-5 minutes for them to move from the field towards us. Ultimately the largest part of the swarm was flying about 5 - 10 feet over our heads, we were in the last row before the middle section of the pavilion. The rows directly behind us got hit the worst - then the swarm moved towards center field before they finally settled in the last section in the pavilion. It took them an additional 5 - 10 minutes to move from section 309 to the last section in the pavilion.

My biggest concern was how slowly Dodger security moved into the area and responded. It wasn't until after the bees had already claimed the last section of the pavilion that security starting moving people - and by the time security was moving them many people had already moved themselves. There was also extremely poor communication - security showed up, and just stared. They were clearly shocked by the occurrence, I suppose I was surprised that there wasn't already some type of plan in place in the event of this type of incident. Within 5 minutes of realizing there was a problem - and not in the entire pavilion, but in one section at a time, I'm not sure why they didn't evacuate a section once there clearly was a problem and have those people head for cover.

[bayareadfan]

The comparisons show a few things. One is, the Rockies are getting it done with a team that is composed of players who are taken as a whole, not as good as ours. Yet their team stats are very good (+83 run differential). Sum is more than the total of the parts?

Secondly, they're starting pitching is very good and is probably responsible for the team's success of late, so losing Cook is going to hurt just like losing Kuroda is hurting.

[Ben]

so the chart looks great to me...but then again i don't know what the stats mean. is there a good into site that will explain eqa? era+? vorp? and all the other acronyms that i see everywhere when i read a column now.

thanks in advance

[Eric Enders]

Good stuff, Jon. I'm pumped for this series, which will be my first three Dodger games of the season. I'll be the guy wearing blue in Section 133 on Tuesday if anyone wants to come say hi.

Incidentally, I disagree with Bill's statement that Ethier "still looked OK" at the plate during his deep slump. I thought he looked awful. His plate discipline turned into Juan Samuel's and he seemed to have little clue what he was doing up there. Just my 2¢, for what it's worth... admittedly not much.

[Eric Enders]

I'm far from an expert, but I suppose I'll do until an actual expert comes along. Or at least someone with a link to a good stats primer.

EQA, Equivalent Average, is a Baseball Prospectus stat that measures a player's total offensive contribution. It's designed to work on the same scale as batting average; .300 is good, .240 is bad, .340 is a Hall of Famer.

VORP, which stands for Value Over Replacement Player, is another "kitchen sink" stat. It measures a player's total offense, and also adjusts for how valuable that offense is based on the player's defensive position. (It does NOT, however, take actual defensive prowess into account -- just offense adjusted for position.)

ERA+ is ERA, normalized to remove the misleading effects of differing ballparks and differing time periods. This allows all pitchers in history to be compared on an apples-to-apples basis. 100 is league average, below 100 is below average, above 100 is better than average.

[Ken Noe]

I'm looking forward to this series even more than I'm looking forward to that nineteen-year-old USC journalism major replacing Helene Elliot. And that's saying something. "Don't you hear footseteps, Orlando? Don't ya, don't ya?? Footsteps? Huh huh??? Footsteps????"

[Bob Hendley]

Aren't most journalist good, until they write about something in your own area of expertise?

[Chunkdog]

Although the Dodgers have slumped noticeably since the AS break, the Helene Elliott route seems strange, considering they just won 3 out of 4 from the Cubs.

I'm not a big fan of the matchup analysis. Based on that, the '88 Oakland A's should have/would have swept the World Series. Sometimes there is more to it than stats, with apologies to Bill James and the Moneyball gurus.

[Ken Noe]

I'll say this Bob, I've been misquoted more than once, or else a complicated argument was reduced to a partially misleading quotation or two. But I also draw a line between honest mistakes and trolling for a pre-determined result, which is what the Elliot column seems--seems--to derive from. Pushing buttons until you get the desired response. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm happy to be corrected if so.

[East Coast Dodger]

Eric - I'll be at the second and third games of the series. Wednesday, I'll be fairly close to you, in section 142 nine rows back, in my Dodgers' shirt and cap.

The Dodgers don't have as many issues as the Mets, granted. But similar to any worries about Johan Santana (there are loud voices about that out here) being WAY far down on their list of problems, so I Manny to us. The Dodgers have much more to worry about than whether Manny will hit.

[DL]

For the entire month of August, Baseball Prospectus has been even better than Xanax. They still have the Dodgers ranked first in their "Hit List" power rankings, which seems ridiculous to me until you consider that the Dodgers still have the best record in baseball when adjusted for 2nd and 3rd order wins. (Yes, even better than the Yankees.) LA's actual record is 3.6 and 3.4 wins worse than their adjusted record, so we ought to be able to expect things to normalize a bit going forward.

And the Dodgers playoff odds are holding steady at 98.4%. The lowest they've been during this whole month was 97.2% last Thursday. The odds of winning the division outright have sunk from a high of 94.2% to 86.9% currently.

All this could change significantly if the Dodgers get altitude sickness this week, but for now, just take the little pill and relax...

[Dr. Gary]

The tie-breaking match-up is Joe Torre versus Jim Tracy.

And don't reflexively give this one to Joe, the winner that he is...

Jim Tracy could garner Manager of the Year honors for catapulting the Rockies to contention.

Tracy wasn't a good fit in 90090, but his low-key stewardship could give the Dodgers the fits down the stretch.

The Rockies remind me of the "Butch Cassidy & the Sundance Kid" relentless pursuers:

"Who ARE those guys?"

We're about to find out.

[Lambert]

So a 45 million dollar contract followed by a 50 game suspension, sloppy fielding, and poor performance at the plate is not a legitimate cause for losing patience.

More scolding. More spin-doctoring.

[regfairfield]

What's missing in Jon's chart that explains most of the Rockies success is the team defense. Other than Hawpe in right they have a great defensive player at every position.

[regfairfield]

Manny had a 1.200 OPS as a Dodger before the suspension. Not giving him any leeway for a slump is absurd.

[Preacher Roe]

Who comes off the 40 man roster to put Loaiza....I mean Padilla on it?

[underdog]

Posted by: whodat807 | August 23, 2009 at 11:26 PM

Hope you're right whodat, though I will say I'll be surprised if the Dodgers split this three game series. ;-) Maybe they'll have a soccer game on Wednesday and not do penalty kicks.

[dalegribel]

Good thing the actual players can take more pressure than the fans. Seems Broxton is back to form, anyone still want his head? How about those crying for Ethier's? And, oh yeah, there were definitely calls in this forum madating Kershaw be sent to the minors. There's a reason these guys play 162 games.

[Deuces are Wild]

I like the position we're in right now.
Look at the Rockies, at 70-54 and still 3 games out. I would have killed to be 70-54 last year.
I envision the same buzz that we experienced in the last series at SF, with the same result, us taking 2 out of 3. Kershaw should step up and I think he'll hold the Rockies at bay.
As far as Manny, I guess this is the time to slump. He needs to be back to form by October.
I don't expect a meltdown from this team. If anything, the meltdown should come from the Rockies. Don't you guys remember how Tracy's Dodgers would slump horribly just after the All Star Break? And Tracy is just about at the 80-game mark, so the timing is right. I predict that the Rockies will be 9 games out by day's end on 8/31.

[gus2327]

I feel like a bold prediction. Gut feeling...sometimes you gotta use your gut for more than just catching lunch crumbs.

Dodgers Sweep "Jimmy Tracy and the Rockets".
G1 - Kershaw gets the dub with a 7-3 win.
G2 - The Wolf gets the dub with a 6-4 win.
G3 - Bullpen brings it home with a 12-6 Dodgers win.
With the Dodgers sweep of the Rockies...the Earth's core begins to spin again, bringing everything back to what we call normal. Thank you Dodgers!

[Ken Noe]

When I watch Manny, I just see his timing way off, and a little less patience in the box. He's not hitting the ball squarely, but rather getting under it. Plus there's Steve Phillips's surprisingly insightful comment about his high arm position. I suppose age could be a factor, but there's every reason to think he'll work out what's wrong. I hope so, because he is sure our left fielder next year.

[Jon Weisman]

"Think twice" is now the definition of scolding?

[Maddz]

"Think twice" is now the definition of scolding?

Posted by: Jon Weisman | August 24, 2009 at 08:53 AM

Man, my parents were totally doing it wrong.

Thanks for the matchup preview, Jon. I'll be looking forward to watching this game (somehow, my boyfriend's roommate has a pathological hatred for the Dodgers so watching the games at their place is really...stressful).

[gus2327]

On the subject of "Think Twice". It was Dylan that said "Don't Think Twice". Good Tune.

"Im walkin down that long, lonesome road, babe
Where Im bound, I cant tell
But goodbyes too good a word, gal
So I'll just say fare thee well
I aint sayin you treated me unkind
You could have done better but I dont mind
You just kinda wasted my precious time
But dont think twice, its all right"

[BlueCrewBruin]

Lambert | August 24, 2009 at 08:13 AM

I think the thing is that for Dodger fans in general (maybe not for you personally) it all comes down to Manny's recent poor performance at the plate.

Everyone and their grandmammas knew he was a sloppy fielder from the get-go and he seemed pretty well received when he returned form the suspension. The boos have only really started to heat up since he's been slumping. Given all that, I think all Jon is saying is that with the guy's history at the plate, it's too soon to get on his case and jump to the conclusion that he's fallen off a cliff. It's certainly possible but maybe not the time yet for boos.

[BlueCrewBruin]

form = from

Ugh, even with an edit botton...

[DrBob]

I think Jon has it right on point. The season is a long one and the sky is not falling. For whatever reason, many fans seem to look at the glass as half empty. I don't look at the team through rose-colored glasses but I try to keep an even-keeled view of the team and the season. As it is, I am quite happy that we are where we are, maybe looking over our shoulder - but at least not looking at the back of another team's uniforms.

DrBob

[Branch Rickey]

"So a 45 million dollar contract followed by a 50 game suspension, sloppy fielding, and poor performance at the plate is not a legitimate cause for losing patience.
More scolding. More spin-doctoring.
Posted by: Lambert | August 24, 2009 at 08:13 AM"

Well, the fans cheered him wildly until last night so you have to figure the contract and suspension weren't an issue for them. They were losing their patience based on one game (as has become usual) and whereas they of course have the right to do so, it (booing our players based on one game or even one play) sure is tiresome for the thoughtful fan.

[jpg]

20 million dollar free agent ballplayers who slump dont' get a lot of slack and why should they? He is carrying 20% of the budget, the expectations are squarely on his back right where they belong.

Manny had a .240 slug% for the week. Safe to say he hasn't seen many of those in his lifetime. Slumps happen more often for the aged, the important thing is that he break out right about now. Glad we do have a day off today, otherwise I would have suggested he take a break. He's 37 for god's sake and played a lot of games when he's been allowed to take the field. Much more then I expected he'd be able to play. His drop in production should not be a surprise.

[Jon Weisman]

I wasn't surprised Manny got booed yesterday. It was an ugly looking play. It wasn't so much that Manny overran the ball as much as how slowly he turned back to get it. I think Ramirez assumed Kemp would be trailing him and that he wouldn't have to worry about turning around and getting the ball - a dumb assumption, of course.

My comment was mainly the point that even a month of slumping does not necessarily mean the end of the road for hitters, even aging hitters. We saw it with Kent during a lot of his Dodger tenure.

There are certainly reasons to think Manny's struggles might continue, but I didn't think I was going overboard in saying that people might be overreacting to those struggles.

[Xeifrank]

First swag on tuesday's game with my simulator puts at pretty much a 50/50 game.
vr, Xei

[Jon Weisman]

I certainly don't argue with the proposition that expectations should be higher for Manny - nor am I expecting him to repeat his late-2008 run. He's looked pretty bad to me this past week or more, that's for sure. I'm just not convinced he's lost it.

[AENewman]

on Manny's slump...

I think he needs glasses...no joke...and I think he is compensating for not seeing the ball well by overswinging...

Do any of the PED treatments help vision? I seem to recall talk of this when Bonds was in his PED heyday...

[delias man]

I think the paying crowd was just venting yesterday. A hot, boring game is sure to get the crowd a little fussy.

[jpg]

For whatever reason and I'm sure it is myth but whenever I see a great hitter in a great slump I always expect that when they come out of the slump, they will destroy pitching for several weeks as they need to drive the numbers back up to the normal level.

Working against Manny are his age, the number of games he's had to play since the suspension, and very possibly the fact that he did need his PED's to play at that level of what we are expecting.

Working for Manny is his historical history in Sept which shows that he has posted his highest OPS (1.028) in Sept/Oct, the fact his teams always win and he's a big reason why, and the fact he's just a great hitter who probably still has six big weeks left in him.

[Ian Capilouto]

My prediction for this series is I don't have one. The combination of the series being played at Coors Field, where the Dodgers have historically had some remarkable games, the fact that the Rockies are red hot, plus other factors give me no sense of the outcome. The Dodgers pitching has been pretty good, while the hitting has been cold lately. But now they are starting a series in a ball park where that could get turned around. 3-0 sweep for the Dodgers, 3-0 sweep for the Rockies, or two of three going either way, I don't know. I have to side with the idea that Manny will turn it on again, and likely at Coors, but I have to admit that all of this steroid stuff has crept into my head. In the back of my head I think "what if for all these years he has been using PED's and the last few years since testing began, he has been using some undetectable substance to get around the tests. But since he has been caught a few times and literally his manhood was in question, he is doing it all natural to prove he can do it without the PED. Or that he merely hopes to get his virility back." But I would give him the benefit of the doubt. Hitting slumps are normal in the game and he isn't in that much of a slump. But then maybe he reverting into just a pretty good hitting left fielder instead of the monster he once was? Who knows? I don't. Manny just confuses me now. I say that with humor.

[regfairfield]

Even with this slump Manny is still having the 9th best season of his career at age 37. At some point the guy was going to have to regress and not be the best hitter in baseball.

[Ian Capilouto]

With the booing yesterday, I thought I remember Vin mentioning that the crowd was booing the second base umpires safe call at second base?

[Jon Weisman]

New post up top.

[David s]

I wouldn't say its losing patience, but more wondering what is wrong. When a player is older, a slump is more than likely a physical problem that can no longer be overcome. Manny was/is such a fine tuned hitter and for whatever reason he is not getting it done. And its not like he has just had a bad week or so. He certainly must be ABLE to figure out what's wrong, but maybe can not do anything about it. Again, this mystery slump started right after his injury. Sure everyone says he is ok, but we know how much that is worth. I, like everyone else, hope to be cheering Manny in September

[David s]

I wouldn't say its losing patience, but more wondering what is wrong. When a player is older, a slump is more than likely a physical problem that can no longer be overcome. Manny was/is such a fine tuned hitter and for whatever reason he is not getting it done. And its not like he has just had a bad week or so. He certainly must be ABLE to figure out what's wrong, but maybe can not do anything about it. Again, this mystery slump started right after his injury. Sure everyone says he is ok, but we know how much that is worth. I, like everyone else, hope to be cheering Manny in September

[Bob Hendley]

I'm not a big fan of the matchup analysis. Based on that, the '88 Oakland A's should have/would have swept the World Series. Sometimes there is more to it than stats, with apologies to Bill James and the Moneyball gurus.

Posted by: Chunkdog | August 24, 2009 at 06:46 AM

I agree, and I think Jon would as well, that matchup analysis is not definitive, but what does that have to do with James and Moneyball that requires your apology? Matchup analysis has probably been done since the beginning of baseball, just using decidedly less informative stats.

[Richard]

Rockies will sweep the series and go on to win the NL West with LA and SF BOTH losing out on the WC chase to Atlanta.