The Giants make a Cinderella bid for the playoffs

Reports of the weediness of the National League West are overblown. The division is four games over .500, with the last-place team posting a .424 winning percentage despite playing a high percentage of games against the best team in the league.  

The NL East is 11 games below .500, lowlighted by the Washington Nationals, whose losing percentage (.732) is greater than the Dodgers' winning percentage (.667). The NL Central is five games above .500 with a plus-10 run differential, hardly demonstrating any significant edge over its Western counterpart.

Some observers write off the NL West as the Dodgers and four patsies.  But considering that the "patsies" (not including the Dodgers) have a 56-55 record outside the division, it seems pretty clear that writing the division off is premature.

All this is prelude to my question: Are the San Francisco Giants a legitimate playoff contender? They have some great pitching and some great prospects, which in my mind makes their roster competitive and easier to improve down the stretch than other rivals. Their biggest issue might be the number of remaining games against the Dodgers, but then again, the Dodgers could easily come back to earth a bit.

NL Wild Card Standings

Team	Overall	Runs	Runs allowed	vs. NL East	vs. NL Central	vs. NL West	Vs. AL
New York	31-25	263	243	18-10	7-8	4-6	2-1
Chicago	29-26	244	230	4-2	17-15	8-9	0-0
Cincinnati	30-27	250	243	5-7	20-16	3-3	2-1
San Francisco	30-27	226	224	10-7	5-3	14-15	1-2
St. Louis	31-28	254	249	7-5	19-15	3-7	2-1
Atlanta	29-28	247	255	12-10	9-10	3-7	2-1
Florida	29-31	274	297	16-10	6-11	6-8	1-2
San Diego	27-31	231	280	4-5	7-8	16-18	0-0
Colorado	26-32	291	282	4-6	9-8	11-17	2-1
Pittsburgh	26-32	256	258	11-7	10-21	4-2	1-2
Houston	25-31	231	266	2-2	13-23	10-3	0-3
Arizona	25-34	253	290	7-6	5-8	11-19	2-1
Washington	15-41	252	327	6-27	3-6	5-6	1-2

Comments

[fanerman]

I sure hope not.

[Surfacetear]

I know it's a dead horse, but the main problem with comparing Juan Pierre to the great, speedy Dodgers of the past is that they were mostly middle infielders who played plus or even elite defense. If Juan Pierre was a slick-fielding 2B or SS, I think he'd be a very valuable player.

[bhsportsguy]

The Giants are going to have to start playing better in NL West (10-10 against non-Dodger opponents). And a problem they have is that their pitching advantage is sometimes muted by NL West teams who can occasionally match their pitchers.

As a contrast and probably not totally fair but the Dodgers are currently 21-5 against those same teams. So when you subtract those games for both teams, the Giants are 20-17 and the Dodgers ae 19-15.

[Xeifrank]

Record and pythag record-wise the three NL divisions are pretty much even. Good post. Anyone who says the NL West is the worst can come talk to me. :)
vr, Xei

[bhsportsguy]

You can thank Colorado and Jim Tracy for the above .500 record outside the division.

[Sac Town Dodger Fan]

So funny this became a post today, I was just having this discussion with some co-workers who are definately not Dodgers fans. Their argument was the NL West was weak, hence the best record in MLB.

This info should prove them wrong. Thanks Jon!

PS Went to Friday nights Either walkoff 2B game. The sight of Sasha V throwing out the 1st pitch made me sick.

[fanerman]

I hope by "sick" you mean "fantastic."

[Sac Town Dodger Fan]

No literally sick. Only ate one Dodger Dog instead of the usual 2.

[jpg]

I said from the beginning I thought the Giants could be contenders. Now it looks like it is going to be the wild card for them but that is very possible.

The biggest problem they have is that none of their premium prospects are ready to help in 2009 which means they will need to trade some of them if they want immediate help.

I expect they will look at the team and realize that it is probably a fools play to go for it this year and let the kids percolate and make some deals this winter to strengthen the offense. A rotation starting in 2010 of Lincecum/Cain/Zito/Bumgarner/Alderson will give us pause as they develop. They really needed Sanchez to step up bigger this year so they could trade him for an impact bat. Could still happen, last June is when he started to put it together last year before running out of gas.

[Xeifrank]

... as far as the Dodgers coming back down to earth or regressing to the mean, I think that journey has already started. Their team babip was .340 a couple of weeks ago and is now down to .331. Many of the players are still way above their career norms for BABIP (Pierre, Hudson, Blake to a lower degree).

Even while regressing somewhat on offense, the Dodgers keep on winning more games than they are losing. This is the benefit of having both a solid offense and pitching. When one cools off, the other can keep you from any prolonged slumps.

vr, Xei

[Rob McMillin]

The problem with your analysis, Jon, is that it's akin to Bill Gates walking into my living room; all of a sudden, average per-capita income just took a big upward spike! The second place team in the NL East is also only two games back of the first place team. The NL West's second place team is eight and a half games back. The difference between the Dodgers and Giants is enormous. On the other hand, the Giants are only a game and a half out of a Wild Card slot ...

[jpg]

After some bad luck with Jesse Foppert and other high impact prospects blowing out their arms the new kids seem to be staying healthy.

[fanerman]

For what it's worth, the Giants are overachieving more than the Dodgers are, according to 3rd-order wins (Giants by 4.5, Dodgers by 3.6).

[fanerman]

Or, James Buchanan saying, "You know my successor and I average a ranking of 21.5!" Well, not quite that.

[dodger tony]

Good grief, by the time I start writing a comment a new post has been created. I can't keep up.

By the way, weren't VORP and WOR Klingon's from Star Trek the Next Generation?

As regards Marchman's take, I absolutely agree that the Dodger's lack of power is, along with our pitcher's not going deep into games, the single most worrisome aspect of this ballclub. IF, and it is an if, Ethier and Kemp can begin to emerge as legitimate power threats then, along with Manny, you now have your three guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark at any given time. I agree wholeheartedly that without this element, the Dodgers cannot win it all. They MAY, but reason suggest not.

It would be an enormous shame if the Blue was unable to complete their mission due to this outage. As much as I am a fan of Loney and Martin, I salivate thinking that Adrian Gonzalez and Victor Martinez are out there on teams that have no chance of going anywhere. Ooooh.

[Jon Weisman]

Rob, I'm not touting the Giants for an NL West title. Just a playoff spot.

[underdog]

I hope the Giants do trade some of their prospects for a vet who can help them this year, but I doubt they'll be that dumb this time. Like Colletti, it's possible Sabean has learned from his mistakes (though maybe not).

My defense of the NL West does battle with my hatred of the Giants on this one, but I am glad to see the teams overall faring pretty respectably outside the division. I hope that does silence East Coast journalists who keep beating that mantra. And Sac Town's coworkers.

[Jon Weisman]

Also, Rob, I took pains to separate the accomplishments of the non-Dodger teams in the NL West.

[DL]

I was going to make the same point Fanerman did about 3rd-order wins. The teams' records, when adjusted:

LA ... 36.4 W, 23.6 L
SF ... 25.5 W, 31.5 L

That's still about a 9-game lead. The Dodgers also still have the best record in baseball when adjusted for 3rd-order wins, while the Giants are in 4th place in the NL West.

[fanerman]

I thought conventional wisdom was you win in the postseason with more smallball than longball. And teams that were home run hitting teams were supposed to be the ones that struggled in the playoffs. Now it seems odd that people are worrying about the Dodgers' future playoff success for the exact opposite reason.

I remember this article from THT about what has worked in the playoffs:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/so-billy-what-does-work-in-the-playoffs/

[Jon Weisman]

Dodger Tony, I'd just worry about the power - and then I'd stop worrying when Manny returns. As for the pitchers going deep in games, as I wrote last month, this has also been overblown as a factor.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dodgerthoughts/2009/05/bullpen.html

[underdog]

I think I'll choose my "worry about power" moment for some time other than the day after they hit 4 home runs in a game. ;-)

[Eric Stephen]

Sac Town,

Just be thankful Robert Horry wasn't around on Friday to throw out the first pitch. :)

[jpg]

I just hope that Andre is on a hot streak when October comes and not a cold streak. OMG the ball just jumped off his bat last night like it was shot off of a alum bat but it was unmistakenly the beautiful sound of wood exploding with impact.
How for a month a hitter with that talent can't do anything and then turn into such a beast. I believe the moon was near full. Maybe it is a tide thing.

[68elcamino427]

Dodger Power!

Manny
Blake
Ethier
Kemp

Are each one of these guys good for 20+ home runs this year???

[Craig88USC]

I (as the biggest Dodger fan of all) will go on record today -

I'm pickin' the hated Giants to be the NL WC winner
and to beat whoever they play in the 1st round.

ESPN - get ready.

[fanerman]

LOL Eric S. Great comment.

[Eric Stephen]

El Camino,

Manny and Ethier should hit 20, Blake will likely hit 20, and Kemp might hit 20 (he's on pace for 19 right now), IMO.

[fanerman]

Wow. Okay Craig, from now on I will no longer think of you as "that guy obsessed with USC" and now will think of you as "the self-proclaimed biggest Dodger fan of all."

[Craig88USC]

TJ Simers - " THE MAGIC called on 7-year-old Gina Marie Incandela to sign the national anthem, doctors telling her mother early on she might never speak and her not doing so until age 3.

Sent to a special school to help children with autism, music appealed to her, and now in six playoff appearances with the youngster belting out the anthem, the Magic has yet to lose.

I have a pretty good hunch who will be singing Thursday night."

She must be stopped. ; )

[jpg]

If Sasha is the "machine" he must have been made by GM.

[jpg]

I'm not sure you can be a USC and Dodger fan and still get to blue heaven.
Craig, who is the greatest Dodger to ever play for USC?

[Eric Stephen]

I'm not sure you can be a USC and Dodger fan and still get to blue heaven.

We'll see about that.

[jpg]

Was Blue Heaven, Steve Martin's best movie?

[Kevin Lewis]

The last two games I have been to included a first pitch from a "star" of the "hit show", "The Hills".

I hate that show soooooo much.

[Kevin Lewis]

I think L.A. Story or Planes, Trains and Automobiles are up at the top for me.

[Craig88USC]

Fanerman my friend - For USC it's strictly generational blessings.

For the Dodgers it's true baseball love for Robinson, Campanella, Scully, Koufax, Drysdale, Wills, Davis, Parker, Lasorda, Valenzuela, Hatcher, Hershiser, Eithier, Torre & Manny.

And it's 1955, 1959, 1963, 1965, 1981, 1988 and the joyful journey to number 7.

[tjdub]

More important tv thoughts: Based largely on the popularity of the show amongst this crowd, I'm planning on adding Top Chef to the watching menu. Is Top Chef Masters likely to be a good indication of whether or not I'll enjoy the show, or would I be better off waiting for the next "regular" season?

[Craig88USC]

LA's favorite QB Mark Sanchez just signed for 5 years $28,000,000

; )

[blue22]

For whatever reason, I watched "All of Me" about 50 times as a kid. That movie killed me. "Beck in da bowl...beck in da bowl...beck in da bowl"

[Eric Stephen]

I'd go with Kevin's two Steve Martin movies, but Blue Heaven was also very funny. Father of the Bride was quite good too.

tjdub, I would only say if you don't like Top Chef Masters, still give the regular version a try once its on.

Kevin, Bill Paxton is throwing out the first pitch tonight. It would be cool if he threw three balls at once to his TV wives.

[Jon Weisman]

A quick list of Steve Martin's greatest movies (that he was in):

1) Roxanne
2) All of Me
3) Dead Men Don't Wear Plaid
4) The Jerk
5) Shopgirl
6) The Spanish Prisoner
7) Little Shop of Horrors
8) The Lonely Guy
9) Bowfinger
10) L.A. Story
Honorable mention: Parenthood, A Simple Twist of Fate, Planes, Trains & Automobiles

[Tripon]

More important tv thoughts: Based largely on the popularity of the show amongst this crowd, I'm planning on adding Top Chef to the watching menu. Is Top Chef Masters likely to be a good indication of whether or not I'll enjoy the show, or would I be better off waiting for the next "regular" season?

Posted by: tjdub | June 10, 2009 at 03:05 PM

______

If you want to watch Top Chef for the 'drama', i.e. the boring relational crap, you'll probably won't like Top Chef Masters.

However if you want to watch people compete on a very high level while doing some very conventional things, Top Chef Masters should be very good in that regard.

The contestants on Top Chef Masters aren't bunking with each other, don't have to pretend they're not sequestered for a month, and can just cook to the best of their ability. If I have to guess, I'd say you'll like it.

[bhsportsguy]

Mark Sanchez threw one pass as a sophomore back up quarterback in high school.

[Eric Stephen]

I forgot about Parenthood, and of course The Jerk.

[Jon Weisman]

Don't hold me to the order, except for No. 1.

[Jon Weisman]

It's "backinbowl" by the way. That's very important. No "da."

[Ryan Francis]

Hey Everyone!

I have four tickets to tonight's game I cannot use. If anyone wants them for the $2/ticket charge to retrieve them from ticketmaster, shoot me an e-mail.

ifallelse1 AT aol

Maybe you can mail me a cooler bag?

They are 24 Reserve, Row E, seats 1-4.

[ucladodger]

I'm still amazed the giants have a winning record with that offense. Obviously the front 2 of their rotation has performed great, but I'm still not sold on the back half. Heck, I'm not even sold on their great front 2. Lincecum is a legit stud, top 3 pitcher in the game, but Cain hasnt really pitched that well (4.24 FIP, extremely high strand rate that will regress, lowest K:BB ratio of the last 4 years). Zito has a 4.7 FIP, Randy has a 4.6 FIP, Sanchez cant control the baseball. So really, their rotation is nothing special and their offense is putrid. If they continue to play like they are, I cant see them being a legitimate contender or even a .500 club.

[blue22]

Jon: "backinbowl"

d'oh! You are right, though it has been some 15 years since I saw that movie. I think I need to watch it again.

[Jon Weisman]

"So really, their rotation is nothing special"

Are there many teams with more special rotations?

[bhsportsguy]

I really like the Top 4 on Jon's list.

[ucladodger]

Not many, but all teams have better offenses. A rotation with 1 stud and 4 league average to below average guys isnt going to carry an inept offense to the playoffs.

[Jonny (TAFKAJ)]

On the topic of the Giants....
It really is fun when the Dodgers and Giants are battling it out down the stretch....(I went to dental school in the Bay Area and have a bunch of friends that are die hard Giants fans....It was tough being a Dodger fan up there for 4 years. All I can say is that I will receive a huge ration of grief from these people if the Giants should go advance further than the Dodgers this year.)
Anyway, It's about this time of the season that I begin wondering which players could become available to contending teams....and, I always think of who the division foes could possibly acquire.
Historically, as we all know, with some teams trying to keep other teams from being able to get the player(s) they want, it makes for a very interesting time of year.
And, since the Giants didn't sign any big name free agents....You'd think they might have some money to spend. My nightmare is Jake Peavy going to SF.
What do you guys think? Any forecasts?

[jasonungar]

Odd Stat: (and it may have been pointed out lately I haven't been around as much)

The dodger pitching leads baseball in era and..... walks allowed. I guess a walk isn't as good as a hit..lol

[Craig88USC]

JPG - I gotta say the Red Headed Dodger Ron Fairly who helped USC win our 2nd
(out of now 12 !) College World Series titles.

But we should of got Tom Seaver long ago
or Grant Green yesterday.

It's too bad (and really dumb) that you can't trade draft picks.
How can u run a descent "war room" without trading up & down?

[jpg]

Jon - great list, but wasn't a fan of LA Story. Bowfinger is a great movie and Spanish Prisoner is one of my favorites. Roxanne is a good number one. Didn't see Shopgirl. I'd forgotten about All of Me until it was mentioned. Great movie.

Blue Heaven couldn't crack that list?

[jpg]

Johnny - the last team I'd be worried about Peavy going to is the Giants and even if he did it wouldnt' bother me. Whoever pays the price for Peavy is not going to get their money's worth. That will be a terrible contract in a few years.

[kuofax]

Good call putting Bowfinger on that list. Rewatched it recently, and I'd put that in his top 5, for sure!

[ucladodger]

Trading draft picks would make the draft more fair. Teams like Pittsburgh yesterday could trade their pick and still get the guy they wanted instead of massively overdrafting. The big clubs (well, except us) go over slot anyways, so draft order doesnt mean all that much either. Also, could you imagine what kind of offers the Nats would have gotten for their pick yesterday? That definitely would have been fun to see.

[jpg]

UCLA - how is Matt Can a league average pitcher?

[ucladodger]

Agree on the Bowfinger call. Really funny. Speaking of funny, has anyone else seen The Hangover? Its the perfect college aged movie, so I enjoyed it immensely.

[Hollywood Joe]

Odd Stat #2

Dodgers lead the league in IBB too - only SDP are really close

The Dodgers are 16% over league average for BB but a whopping 76% over league average for IBB.

The average team IBB is about 8% of their total BB, for the Dodgers that number is 12%

I must say I haven't noticed a rash of IBBs but maybe I was just too happy to care

they have 6X as many IBB than the Cards

Other contextual information: They are 4th in WHiP and they have played the most games (60) and are among the leaders in IP - which certainly helps when citing a totals stat like BB

[fanerman]

jpg, ucladodger was referring to Cain's 4.29 FIP, I think.

[Surfacetear]

The Jerk is Steve Martin's best movie, followed by Roxanne, L.A. Story, Bowfinger, The 3 Amigos, Dead Men Don't Wear Plaid and The man with 2 Brains.

I believe he wrote all of those as well. Pretty amazing.

[Craig88USC]

Jon - How can you possibly rank P, T & A down so far? You gotta go back and watch it again. It's aged so well and is now a Thanksgiving classic. Please reconsider. So many precious and hilarious scenes. The travelin' buddies genre. Martin & Candy. : )

[ucladodger]

JPG, his advanced numbers really arent that good this year. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and his FIP is around league average. His strand rate is like 87% (15 or so % above the league average), so he has gotten really lucky. Here's a good article from a few weeks ago that still pretty much holds.
http://tinyurl.com/psmbjr.

He's due for some serious regression soon, so I'd expect his traditional numbers to suffer also.

[jpg]

UCLA - hangover was great fun. I never would have guessed how he lost the tooth but it should have been obvious.

[jpg]

I've come around to the trading of draft picks. Would have made yesterday a circus with the offers the Nat's would have gotten.

[blue22]

I think it's Don Sutton that is the best Dodger/Trojan, yes?

[regfairfield]

My favorite part about The Hangover is that there was no learning, and no growing. Didn't have the 20 minute serious part that most of the Apatow movies do.

[ucladodger]

I know, i couldnt believe i didnt think of that. I need to go see it again because I think I missed a few punchlines. The theater in Westwood was packed and it was hard to pick up the second part of some jokes because the laughter was so loud.

[blue22]

Hmm...maybe not. The Cube has Sutton attending USC, but his wikipedia article does not mention it.

[Jon Weisman]

I didn't see Blue Heaven. I didn't love L.A. Story but thought it deserved a spot.

But again, I wouldn't get caught up in the order, even beyond the top 10, except for the fact that Roxanne is truly a tour de force. Steve Martin's resume is nothing short of amazing - and we haven't even talked about his standup, his books, his short stories, his plays or even his banjo!

[Craig88USC]

"Don't hold me to the order, except for No. 1"

Now you tell me -
After I've made a fool of myself. ; )

[Eric Stephen]

The Hangover was a lot of fun, and if only to relive (and remember) some of the jokes I will definitely see it again in the theaters.

[das411]

Is there a reason a certain defending world champions are missing from that chart Jon?

[blue22]

I think those are the current wild card standings.

[Phenomenal Smith]

In "My Blue Heaven", Joan Cusack got to play her SECOND uptight divorced mother. And she was just 28 when that film came out.

[Jon Weisman]

Sorry - I should have labeled the chart as such.

Dodger lineup tonight:

Pierre, LF
Hudson, SS
Ethier, RF
Loney, 1B
Blake, 3B
Martin, C
Furcal, SS
Kemp, CF
Kershaw, P

[jpg]

I think that ended the string of Rich Moranis movies where it seemed he was in everything. Now I don't think I've seen him in a movie in 10 years.

[Nauticus]

"Is there a reason a certain defending world champions are missing from that chart Jon?"

I believe that all division leaders are excluded from that list.

And who else would love to see a Giants vs. Dodgers NLCS? ESPN would probably hate to admit that there's a rivalry outside of Red Sox vs. Yankees and it would make me giggle.

[fanerman]

I think Rick Moranis retired or something.

[Phenomenal Smith]

Rick Moranis does most of his work behind the scenes as a writer since his wife passed away.

[jpg]

Jon - so true, who knew the man with an arrow through his head and the happy feet would be the real "most interesting man in the world".

[Artful Dodger]

The Hangover was super funny, enjoyed it immensely, although I did graduate from college 13 years ago...

I always liked Three Amigos best.

[Craig88USC]

Why did Nascar let Kyle smash that custom guitar?

(Townsend and Hendrix at least switched out to the dummy model before the smash/burn.)

[jasonungar]

"I think he looked more like a Carlos too"

Had me rolling. Throwaway lines like that are the best...

[WBB]

The G-nats are no more a contender than they were last year, and will soon come down to earth. In all likelihood, the wild card (which I detest) will come out of the NL East (Mets) or Central (any of several teams). But in the long run it should come down to the Dodgers v. the Phillies with, I hope and expect, a happier result this time.

[Jon Weisman]

I didn't know that about Moranis, though I don't know how much writing he has done.

[blue22]

Has anyone heard anything about Ghostbusters 3?

[Phenomenal Smith]

By writing, I think Rick Moranis writes essays and short stories and stuff like that.

Not screenplays.

[jpg]

Hangover has the best opening line of any movie I've seen for a while but we knew it was coming from the Trailer. Just didn't think it was going to be the first line. Well, not exactly the opening line but anyone who has seen it knows what line I'm talking about.

[jpg]

So is Will Ferrell played out? I've only liked him in "Stranger then Fiction" and "Elf". Had to give him credit for playing the Elf.

[underdog]

Cleaning woman!? Cleaning woman!!?

Okay, Steve Martin Thoughts, underdog edition:

1) Roxanne
2) All of Me (and let's not forget to shout out Richard Libertini, he of the "backinbowl!")
3) Dead Men Don't Wear Plaid
4) Man With Two Brains
5) LA Story and Bowfinger tied
6) Pennies From Heaven
7) The Jerk & Dirty Rotten Scoundrels tied (not for the movie as much as Martin kills me in that one)
8) Lonely Guy + Parenthood, tied
9) Spanish Prisoner, Shopgirl, Planes/Trains; Little Shop of Horrors; Simple Twist of Fate; Father of the Bride; Leap of Faith all about equally good

Blue Heaven is decent enough but I don't remember much about it except "meh."

Guilty pleasure: Looney Tunes

Alas you could make just as long a list of his worst movies, since he's chosen quite a few stinkers in recent years.

[ucladodger]

Also, Hangover 2 is in the works. Hopefully Carlos and Mike Tyson are included.

[Eric Stephen]

I would love to see a Dodgers vs. Giants NLCS, because then we could march to the World Series quite easily.

I don't remember what the opening line to The Hangover was. Even more reason to see it again.

[Humma Kavula]

Steve Martin made a very, very good Oscar host for a subdued program.

It was 2003, and the red carpet was cancelled out of respect for the Iraq war, which had just begun. But the show went on, with a Young Kavula in the publicists' room.

Second-favorite Steve Martin line of the night: after Michael Moore gave his "shame on you, Mister Bush" acceptance speech, Steve Martin said, "It's so sweet -- out back, some Teamsters are helping Michael Moore into the trunk of his limo."

Favorite Steve Martin line of the night: first, the setup. During one of the musical performances, the camera cut to reaction shots of various celebrities in the audience, including Danny DeVito, who was -- inexplicably and hilariously -- munching on some carrots and celery. It was weird. So the song ends, and Steve walks into the audience holding something... he leans over DeVito and reveals what he's holding, inviting DeVito to partake: "Dip?"

And Danny DeVito dipped his carrot into the dip.

[jpg]

Underdog - not Eddie Murphy stinky

[Craig88USC]

Don Sutton wanted to go to USC but instead went to Gulf Coast Community College.

I think that's what Wiki says,,.