Dodger bullpen still not overworked

Express memo to major-league broadcasters and reporters: Please, before you complain about the arms of the Dodger bullpen falling off, read this.

So many people remain so sure that the Dodgers are burning out their bullpen, I've decided to take another close look.

Below is a chart (using data mined from Fangraphs) of pitches thrown by major-league bullpens this season. As you can see, Dodger relievers have thrown only four pitches per game more than the MLB average and only 11 pitches per game more than the least-used bullpen in the majors. Considering those 11 pitches have been divided over a relief corps numbering seven or eight pitchers at a time, the number seems objectively inconsequential.

As for the Dodgers' three most valuable relievers in 2009 -- Jonathan Broxton, Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario -- the data remains the same as it was when I posted about this two weeks ago.

Broxton, the team's top reliever, has thrown more than 20 pitches in consecutive games twice this year, Each time, he got at least two days' rest afterward. Every time Ramon Troncoso or Ronald Belisario has thrown more than 25 pitches in a game, he has gotten the next day off.

Even as the Dodger offense has declined and the pitching has become more critical, Broxton, Troncoso and Belisario have continued to be used in a most moderate fashion.

And then, for all this talk of burnout, no one seems to comment on the fact that three-fourths of the Dodgers' probable postseason rotation -- Hiroki Kuroda, Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw -- has combined to throw more than 110 pitches twice this season, and more often than has been below 100 pitches per game. In other words, if the need is for Dodger starters to be able to shoulder more of the burden, there's every chance these guys will be rested enough so that they can.

If you want to worry about a guy carrying a lot of the load, worry about Chad Billingsley. But any worry about the bullpen at this point is paranoia -- Dodger relievers simply are not throwing an excessive number of pitches.

Bullpen	Pitches	Games	Pitches/Game
Phillies	3725	61	61.07
Marlins	3918	65	60.28
Astros	3700	62	59.68
Padres	3587	62	57.85
Athletics	3583	62	57.79
Orioles	3605	63	57.22
Nationals	3532	62	56.97
Mariners	3583	63	56.87
Dodgers	3628	64	56.69
Yankees	3503	63	55.60
Indians	3553	65	54.66
Braves	3376	62	54.45
Red Sox	3414	63	54.19
Cubs	3183	60	53.05
AVERAGE	3305	62	52.57
Diamondbacks	3335	64	52.11
Mets	3141	61	51.49
Rays	3321	65	51.09
Tigers	3191	63	50.65
Brewers	3173	63	50.37
White Sox	3210	64	50.16
Reds	3089	62	49.82
Giants	3066	62	49.45
Angels	2986	61	48.95
Rangers	2991	62	48.24
Rockies	3025	63	48.02
Pirates	2941	63	46.68
Twins	3033	65	46.66
Royals	2867	62	46.24
Cardinals	2926	64	45.72
Blue Jays	2960	65	45.54

Previously on Dodger Thoughts: Dodger bullpen is not overworked.

Photo: Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Jonathan Broxton. Credit: Tim Heitman/US Presswire.

Comments

[Craig88USC]

(Speakin' of bullpens)

C'mon Anaheim Scioscias

- close 'em down

so the real LA can gain a half.
: )

[Tripon]

Sandoval homers again with a 3 run homer to make it Angels 9, Giants 7, Sandoval 5.

[Ollie]

giants not going quietly, 9-7 in the 9th with 2 away

[Tripon]

Apparently, FSN is going to do their pre-game shows at the Morongo casino for the foreseeable future.

That is er, odd.

[Alex41592]

Lyons would say Sandoval killed the rally.

[Ollie]

the morongo commercial with the female dancing poker chips is arguably the most annoying commercial on television

[Alex41592]

And he did. Game over.

7 1/2 game lead.

[Tripon]

"

"We joke that there should be a James Loney cam," Martin says. "Just on him, all the time."

"Crazy legs and crazy eyes," Wolf says. "He's like a baby giraffe."

That led to Loney being nicknamed "Geoffrey" after the Toys R Us mascot.

Loney is fine with that. If what he does gets people to smile and laugh, he says, great.

"I'd rather see people smile than frown," Loney says."

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers-james-loney16-2009jun16,0,7151659.story?page=2

[Craig88USC]

Looking at the extremes -

Phillies a plus 11 & Blue Jays a minus 7
from the average number of BP pitches thrown/per game;

MLB managers seem to think alot alike.

[Phenomenal Smith]

I would think the Blue Jays numbers are skewed by the presence of Roy Halladay.

[miketink]

Tripon, Thanks for the link to the story on Loney. I enjoyed the rest of it as well. Got a good laugh.

[schoffle]

Jon

Your point is well taken, but wouldn't it be more relevant to look at the innings/pitches of say "our" (the Dodgers) top three relievers verses the usage of other teams top guys. I realize that this may be problematic in some ways, but I say this only because it seems to me that Brox, Tron, and Beli are routinely used in games ranging from down by three to up by five (ok maybe this is an exaggeration, but not by much). Perhaps such a comparison would show that we are no different than other teams in this regard, however I believe that most people who worry about Torre's use of the bullpen don't actually care about the workload of pitchers 9-13.

[oshea2002]

I don't know if it is a repeat - but there was just a special about Drysdale's scoreless streak narrated by Costas on MLB - great stuff. Should be on again somewhere around 20 minutes into each hour on tonight's Quick Pitch.

[underdog]

Yikes. There's something called "Joe Buck Live" on my HBO. Do I need to call somebody to have that removed, or spray?

I would like there to not be Joe Buck on my HBO.

[Tripon]

Walt (Atlanta, GA): Rank for their career's barring injury: Price, Kershaw, Hanson, Buchholz, and Strasburg.

Will Carroll: Top of head ... Price, Strasburg, Kershaw, Hanson, Buchholz. The diff in the top two is team (Rays better than Nats over next five years) and the diff in the next two is also team (Dodgers > Braves.) That's not the order I'd pick them in, but you don't really go wrong with any.

[CanuckDodger]

I agree with Schoffle. It is not the bullpen as a whole that I worry about. The problem lies in certain guys being over-used while others are under-used. Probably not Broxton so much as Troncoso and Belisario. Torre's reputation has been that he rides his set-up men into the ground. Proctor in New York. Wade last year. Leach has been good enough lately that I have been wanting to see him given more responsibility and more work. He has been better against righties than he has against lefties so there is no point in using him only as a LOOGY. Mota has turned things around well enough that I would give him more work. Weaver and Schlichting are barely used at all.

[Jon Weisman]

" Brox, Tron, and Beli are routinely used in games ranging from down by three to up by five (ok maybe this is an exaggeration, but not by much)"

Actually, it's a huge exaggeration.

For Broxton - four times in 29 games
For Troncoso - nine times in 28 games, twice since May 13
For Belisario - six times in 32 games

I feel like I went out of my way in both my posts about the bullpen to spotlight the use of those three pitchers. While I didn't do a direct comparison to other teams, their usage has been so light that I'm not sure what relevant info a direct comparison would yield.

The Dodgers have played 64 games. None of these pitchers have been used in more than half, and only in a blue moon have they been used strenuously in those games.

[Jon Weisman]

In the past month, there has only been one questionable incident of overwork of the bullpen by Torre. Troncoso threw 21 pitches June 5 and 31 pitches June 6.

Troncoso then got two days of rest, and in the nine days since has thrown a total of 53 pitches.

I'm not predicting what will happen in the future. But to this point, these guys simply have not been burned out. Really, it hasn't even been close. Whatever Torre's reputation is, I really don't see how one can argue otherwise.

[Craig88USC]

Friendly reminder to west coasters -

"The Tonight Show with Conan..." in 40 minutes has some special guests on:

Joe Torre and his favorite band Spinal Tap

[Xeifrank]

Most of the Dodgers "overwork" comes from having to pitch so many bottom of the 9ths on the road because they are winning. If only the Dodgers didn't win so much! :)
vr, Xei

[Jon Weisman]

LOL, Xei.

[underdog]

I really do think that's part of the problem -- Torre's reputation. However much deserved, it is entirely possible for someone to learn from their past mistakes, or at least learn to listen to other people who are better at tracking pitch counts and overuse, and entirely possible that Torre is doing just that this season. The evidence is really strong that the 'pen hasn't been overworked, and Jon has pretty clearly laid that all out here, but the reputation is so strong it causes people to overlook the facts. That's my theory anyway.

I also like that a TV comment was followed by one from Xei. No need to consult the Irony committee, it was just cute.

[CanuckDodger]

But what is the the standard for "over-work," Jon? I guess it is pretty subjective. I am simply getting the impression that as a rule I would give a middle reliever more rest than you would. I would like a reliever to get about 80 IP per regular season. I remember Paul Qauntrill always loved work and he said the more the better, and yet in two great seasons with us, he never reached 80 IP in either season. In three seasons as a set-up man, Broxton pitched between 69 and 82 innings. Troncoso is at 41.2 IP and we are 17 games away from the season's half way point.

[pdotmac1]

Joe Torre on Conan about his 'depressing' walk when he takes out pitchers:

When you have a lead, and a closer like Jonathan Broxton, it's not always a bad thing to go have to get the ball.

(I'm paraphrasing)

He then said, "oh, and I had Rivera back in NY too"

[Phenomenal Smith]

Troncoso's IP should go down as he takes over the setup role. He will get one or two innings at most. He had a four inning save already this year.

[Tripon]

I rather see Troncoso pitch two innings and skip the next game than see him pitch in back to back nights.

Same for Belisario.

They're both sinkerballers, and able to get low pitch counts in a given inning. They're capable of only having to throw 11 or so pitches in an inning.

If they have an easy first inning, I see no reason to pull them out of a 2nd inning.

[Ollie]

I've never been a late night T.V. guy, but decided to tune and see Joe on Conan. Anyway, I'm really enjoying the show so far, I was laughing out loud during the segment where Conan visits, and mocks all of the wax figures...good stuff

[bhsportsguy]

For many reasons, I hope giving Conan a Juan Pierre jersey is not symbolic of anything.

[Eric Enders]

I believe the optimum innings pitched total for a Dodger reliever has been established as 82.3, has it not? Whenever the Dodgers use a pitcher for 82.3 innings, he has a really good year. Broxton's on pace for 81 -- so close.

[louisinsf]

I am still getting used to Conan on the Tonight Show, but Joe in a media setting is soooo natural. He buttered both sides of the bread in answering the Manny question. He very softly let it be known how shocked he and the team was regarding Manny and steriods, yet showed his compassionate side and expressing for Manny a sense of embarrassment, which I am not sure Manny feels. Also made the classic point of saying Manny's behavior was not a good example for kids.

Hope we continue to carry on, Giants lose a half a game tonight.

[TheRealPaul]

phenom: don't know that it will matter, but the concern is, well, even if we assume no more 4 and 3, Ramon's at the 41.2 IP and it's mid June. So far this month, it's 8 IP. Add 8 IP to end the month and he's at 49.2. The 8 + 8 work out to 16 IP per month, and so 49.2 + 16 [July] + 16 [August] + 16 [September] = 97.2 IP.

With the 97.2 IP in mind, Heath Bell's monster '07 was 93.2 IP. Easier for Heath since he's a tree trunk up from his ankles up to his head. Ramon doesn't quite have the same legs and hips to carry the load. Troncoso's max is 78 IP in '07 in the minors, all in relief. Sticking with excluding SP years ['05, 74 IP, 6 GS], the third highest is 63 IP in '06. Last year, second place, was 30.2 IP at Vegas and 38 IP for the Dodgers for 68.2 IP. As to why it might not matter, the X Factor here is Kuo. If Kuo can come back and eat some innings, then there's more room for Troncoso to have time off.

[Old Dodger Fan]

Can you imagine if there had been bloggers in 1974 when Mike Marshall was pitching?
106 games (is that a ML record?)
83 games finished
208 IP

[Ken Noe]

Speaking of the bullpen, Robothal says the Sox are shopping Saito: http://tinyurl.com/ma3lrv

[Hollywood Joe]

I loved the Loney article in the times - nice work Dylan

[delias man]

I also worry about Tron's workload because he pitched a lot of innings in the DR as a starter this past winter. I do not have the numbers in front of me, but I think he threw around 30-40 IP down there as well. Now do the Dodgers factor that in, or not?

[Jack]

Billingsley has thrown alot of pitches this year - seems to go about 105 or more every game, and a high pitches/inning ratio. If he comes up with a dead arm in August/Sept, I think we'll know how it developed.

[JQM]

I agree with previous comments, just looking at raw numbers for the pitching staff as a whole doesn't work. You need to factor in number of consecutive days, % of times the pitcher warmed up when they actually came in, and the type of pitcher. Some pitchers put more stress on their arm then others - Broxton appears to put a lot more stress on his arm when he throws that Rivera ever did, which is probably why Rivera could be so dominant for so long, and work multiple innings. It also depends on how the pitcher works out, how he prepares his body for the work he does.

With that said, if we are going to just look at raw numbers - if the Dodgers are 4 over the average per game, that's an extra 648 pitches for the year. That's the equivalent to approx. 6 full/quality/complete starts. If you took each of 6 Dodger relievers, their normal workload, and then asked them to also pitch one complete game some time during the regular year, that would be what the 4+ pitches per game computes to.

That's not anything to not pay attention to, or to just ignore. That's significant.

[Jon Weisman]

Test

[gagne55]

Mota threw over 100 IP for the Dodgers back in 2003 and he was effective all year. (Granted he may have been on steroids)

[El Lay Dave]

Mota also threw 96.2 the next season, but has been mediocre or worse ever since.

[Kevin Lewis]

Man, Geoffrey is a great nickname for Loney.

[Jon Weisman]

JQM -

You would really argue that 648 extra pitches per year is the same as six complete-game starts, or one extra complete game per reliever - completely ignoring a) that the Dodgers use well over six relievers and b) the idea that 100 pitches spread over six months is not the same as 100 pitches spread over three hours?

Look, I've already looked at how much the key relievers have pitched on consecutive days and pointed this out ad nauseum. Perhaps it's possible that Dodger relievers have warmed up way more than all these other teams' relievers. Perhaps Dodger relievers are unique in throwing with great stress. But unless you have the data, that's all speculation And really, considering how great the Dodger starting pitching has been for at least the first five innings of a game, does it really make sense that the Dodgers would be outliers in this area?

So let's put it this way. This is what's happening.

1) People are looking at the innings pitched by Dodger starters and relievers -- and only that -- and concluding that the bullpen is bearing too much of the load.

2) The data at hand indicates that this is not the case.

If you can find data that does disprove it -- and I'll admit that Troncoso does have a surplus of innings, although I contend they have been so spread out and so pitch-count light that they're not a big deal -- then great. Otherwise, the idea that the bullpen is overworked is a myth, plain and simple.

People everywhere are saying that the Dodger bullpen is overworked, and the best evidence for this is that Troncoso has thrown almost an extra inning a week more than he theoretically should have. That's not enough.

Saying "what if the pitchers have been warming up a lot" or "what if these pitchers throw with a lot of stress" doesn't disprove my findings. I can't help but feel that some people are looking to make the data conform to their suppositions, instead of just looking at the data itself and then drawing conclusions. For example, we're worrying about Troncoso throwing 40 innings in the winter? 40 innings over an entire offseason?

[delias man]

Yes, I was wondering if the team does worry about those 40 IP. But he is the only player I worry about. I think Wade and Leach are not used enough.

[delias man]

I could imagine the outrage if Kershaw went to the DR to throw 40 IP.

[berkowit28]

Geoffrey is just a regular first name - reminds me of Kent, though spelled the other way - unless you happen to know of the cuddly (I'm guessing cuddly) giraffe reference, which I didn't. Not as great as some other nicknames used around here. I'd rather not be reminded of Kent.

[SaMo]

Jon:

Your point about Kershaw, Kuroda, and Wolf being underworked neglects to menton the reason they've thrown so few innings: an inability to go deep into games. Kuroda for injury reasons, Kershaw for wildness, Wolf for his seeming predilection to end up with an ND.

I think Joe Torre would love nothing more than for each of these guys to pitch into the 7th inning on a regular basis. But they seem to wilt after five or six.

The concern is not the bullpen overall, but the guys Torre can rely on.

In the playoffs, when every game counts, BeliCoso and Broxton are the ones who will have to shoulder the load. Trachvisch Schlichtingch, Guillermo Mota, and Brent Leach are not going to pitch meaningful playoff innings. The time to make sure the big three aren't overworked is now.

[underdog]

Instead of "Geoffrey," I could see calling him the Giraffe.

After all, after we came up with Bison, we've been looking for more wild animal nicknames. That one fits him pretty darned well.

But Crazy Legs/Eyes still works too.

[fanerman]

I also like the Geoffrey the Giraffe nickname. Now he's another animal (Bison, Ox) that came from the Dodgers' farm.

[Jon Weisman]

"The time to make sure the big three aren't overworked is now."

And they're not.

[fanerman]

Eric Stephen, your interview with Athletics Nation is genius.

[dalegribel]

Jon,

This is a classic example of perception exceeding reality. Your research certainly supports the fact that Torre is managing the bullpen well. In game analysts however, aren't biting and are filling the public perception with false data.

Gone perhaps are the days of Mike Marshall appearing in 105 games, but relievers on championship teams should be ready to appear in 60 or more.

As the Dodger lead expands and the season wears on, I'd expect to see Mota, Schlichting, Leach, Ohman, et. al, picking up more innings. Likely we'll see some maneuvering of the pitching staff to match the bench maneuvering we are seeing now.

[schoffle]

“A huge exaggeration”

Wow, here I was just suggesting that comparing the innings/pitches of each teams top three bullpen guys would make a more useful example in which to prove whether or not “our” bullpen is possibly being over taxed. Yes I noticed you laid out some pitch counts for the top three but since the majority of the post was a comparison of the total bullpen usage I merely wanted to suggest doing a similar comparison with the top three

Anyway, I didn’t get any response to that suggestion so I will assume that you felt it to be a non issue, ok by me. I did however get quite the slap down on my feeling that Brox, Tron, and Beli were being routinely used in games ranging from down by three to up by five, heck I even put in a disclaimer here but this is what drew the ire of the boss man ok so I decided to look for myself at how ridiculous this statement really was.

Ok so negative 3 to positive 5, well seem to me like everyone would go ahead and assume that in a save situation we should use our best and brightest so lets leave that out and I figure the same logic applies to a tie game, so that leaves me looking at -3 to -1 and +4 to +5. Now without the aid of a data miner (I am sure some posters know way in which to pull this without going box score to box score, not me though) this was taking more time than I had anticipated so I decided to cut off at 30 games. What I found was that over the last 30 games the Dodgers had played in 12 games in which at some point beyond the sixth inning “we” were either down by 1 to 3 runs or up by 4 to 5 runs. In these 12 games 8 of them featured one of our top relievers and 6 of them featured one of said reliever over multiple innings (also worth noting that this does not include 5/31 up by 6 all three used or the 2 innings pitched by Beli on 5/25 up by 9).

Now maybe my standards are off quite a bit but I really don’t see where this constitutes “A huge exaggeration”.

[ClemsonDodger]

Just curious, but why do people always use innings for comparisons like these instead of pitch counts? I wouldn't be surprised if we were actually below average if you looked at that instead given our team WHIP.

[regfairfield]

Is it wrong to point out how ineffective Mike Marshall was after that 200 inning season when people use him as an example of manliness?

[Jon Weisman]

Schoffle -

I'm sorry you felt slapped down.

As for your latest response, you've changed the parameters of the discussion. Among other things, you're suggesting that being down by one run is not a time to use one of our three best relievers. I disagree with that. Do you really think it's wrong to use a good reliever who has been rested when you're only down, 4-3?

[Old Dodger Fan]

I don't think Marshall was so bad after the 1974 season.
in 1975 he pitched in 57 games; 109 IP and a WHIP of 1.253 which is better than 1973 and better than his career average.

In fact, as late as 1979 (age 36) he pitched in 90 games (1 start); 142 IP; ERA+ was 166 and WHIP was 1.26.

'74 was his best year but it didn't ruin him.

[regfairfield]

It didn't ruin him, but he went from being a great reliever to an average one until he stopped throwing obscene amounts of innings for three years.

[Eric Stephen]

I just want to point out that Randy Wolf is 24th (among 77 qualified pitchers) in IP per start, at 6.21.

Also, Wolf has completed six innings in 11 of 14 starts, and it would have been 12 of 14 had the transformer hadn't malfunctioned in Texas on Saturday.

Fanerman, thanks. It was fun needling them :)

[Jon Weisman]

New post up top.

[Lex]

i have not posted for quite some time (since the K-bros got the move over).
I want to change topics to Pierre and Gurnick's article at MLB.com.
I still say that the Pierre signing was a mistake in terms of $'s paid and length. Lofton was available for a 1yr deal when it was obvious to most fans that Ethier and Kemp were ready for increased roles if not immediately then very soon. Signing Pierre and Gonzalez slowed the progress of both Kemp and Ethier.
It is not that Pierre is a bad player, he just happens to be the 4th best outfielder on the team when Manny returns. He had an awesome May and had a huge role in the Dodgers retaining the best record. However, he is now returning to his normal production. His last 10 games: BA: .243 OBP: .300. His offense is generally consistent over an entire season: batting nearly .300 with the noteworth deficit of not walking enough and having rather poor bunting skills for a guy with a speed game.
His biggest downfall is his defense, IMHO. His pathetic throwing arm is well documented but he does not get a "good" jump on the ball. He routinely takes very circuitous routings (albeit very fast) to get to the ball. I am not sure if that is a vision problem or what but he could certainly improve that aspect of his game.
I grow weary of Gurnick continually defending the Pierre signing. I would say that no team has had any interest in trading for Pierre which in my thinking validates the poor value of this signing. This would have been a much more tolerable signing with a 3yr length instead of 5. I also don't appreciate hearing about what a professional he is for sitting on the bench and staying ready. He is being paid 9M per year whether he plays, plays well, or sits!!
I would rather have seen D Young, Repko, or Paul be the 4th outfielder. Repko or Paul would have probably produced less offense but been far superior defensively.
When discussing Pierre, it is often overlooked how many runs he costs the team when runners take extra bases due to his incredibly weak throwing arm.
I would have hoped the Dodger management could have used Pierre's hot streak to show-case him for a trade even if it were just to take his contract. I think there are acceptable 4th outfielder alternatives on the 40man roster with some young talent coming up through the ranks (Lambo/Russell).
Sorry for the off topic rant but I hate the party line on this signing.
In summary, IMHO, Pierre is a solid offensive ball player (needs to improve bunting skills and increase his number of walks) that is a defensive liability who is vastly overpaid.
Am I alone on this?

[dalegribel]

I agree Lex. The signing of Juan Pierre was way too risky, but more in terms of years. Surely management should have seen that Kemp and Ethier were ready dictating the max years on Pierre at 2.

As for your second half, I can't help but feel that this has become a 50 game showcase for Pierre. Problem is, that as I look at contenders, there really isn't one that needs an outfielder as a lead off / #2 hitter. At his current salary, I don't see anyone wanting to pay this much to play him exactly the same way the Dodgers will have to. That means the Dodgers will have to swallow a huge portion of his contract and make him a throw in piece on a trade to fit LA's needs, not the acquiring team's.