Some trapeze artistry to go with the clowns

No less a personage than Jon Weisman seized upon the Mets' mistakes -- including a trio in the 11th inning -- as the primary cause of the Dodgers' victory Monday. The New York Times offered an entertaining review of the bumblin' and stumblin'.  Still, I would remind Weisman and others that without great pitching on both sides, there wouldn't have been an 11th inning.

Remember, although both teams were missing players from their starting lineups, this game featured arguably the two top offenses in the National League. Yet for the Mets, after Tim Redding gave up two runs on one hit in the first inning, he and his relievers held the Dodgers scoreless for three more hours. For the Dodgers, Randy Wolf walked off the mound after 7 2/3 innings and 96 pitches, having allowed only one run;  Cory Wade blew the save only because of the unlikeliest of infield singles, and Jonathan Broxton had an easy ninth inning. In addition, Los Angeles had multiple defensive gems.

So there was plenty of good baseball played Monday, even if the ultimate story of the game was a memorable night at Clown College.

Comments

[cargill06]

How foolish would my 7 infielder strategy have looked last night? I guess that's why I don't get paid to manage.

[cargill06]

How foolish would my 7 infielder strategy have looked last night? I guess that's why I don't get paid to manage.

[regfairfield]

Not as foolish as Jeremy Reed.

[DL]

"Rickey approves of this post."

--Rickey Henderson

[delias man]

I wonder why my comment was not posted in last thread. Is Slater a new curse word?

[underdog]

Heh heh heh. Clowns are funny...

I'm also expecting the Mets will play less clown-like tonight.

Both teams sure could use a long outing from their starters.

[blue22]

Best...Simpsons episode...ever.

[berkowit28]

I'm a little puzzled by the third-person reference to "Jon Weisman" - linking back to the previous post, no less. I have learned from this blog that we are supposed to refer to this as "Jim Tracy-like" (before my time, but so many references here have taught me well). This was not a guest post by someone else, right? Just a "second thought"?

While we're on the topic, I frequently test out the sidebar link to Blue Notes, just to see if it leads to somewhere other than a circular reference back to here again. I like it.

[Craig88USC]

Just thinking...assuming all of us share the same goal for the '09 Dodgers to win this year's World Series title; having Juan Pierre with his .481 OBP W.S. average and previous experience in winning a ring surely helps. (As a DH perhaps). Remember this is a very young team to be going all the way. We need ALL the pieces & big game success we can muster up for this run. 20+ years has been a long wait. Toooo long.

[Sam DC]

DL -- LOL

[Harold]

Is this a post meant for the Fabulous Forum or something?

[jacob l]

I can't help but worry that this is the kind of victory the Dodgers will have to pay for, at least in the karmic sense.

Every once in a while I make a birdie by boucing a ball off the beverage cart, and up near the flag. It still counts, but is often followed by a triple bogey from the middle of the fairway.

[Andrew Shimmin]

Did Jim Tracy speak of himself in the third person? Not as I can recall. Did he have a different verbal tick? Indubitably.

[Kevin Lewis]

"Clown college? You can't eat that"

[Jon Weisman]

I am Jon Weisman, and I approved this post written by me.

[Hollywood Joe]

Jacob
The Dodgers are scoring many more runs than they are allowing, many. The actual Dodger record is 27 - 13, the Pythagorean WL for the Dodgers is...27 - 13.

I don't worry when the team gets a break, I don't win they don't get breaks. I didn't worry when they went 1 and 4 after Manny but scored as many runs as they allowed.

When I do worry is when Pythagorean W L is out of whack with actual W L. Sometimes teams are able to defy Pythagoreas for an entire season, but those are few and far between.

BTW 2 - "every once in a while "you hit the beverage cart? The cart girl must love you...

[Kevin Lewis]

I am not going to keep score at the game tonight because I am afraid I will get nacho cheese on the book in the AYCE Pavilion

[cargill06]

KL,

I'm going tomorrow. As a seasoned AYCE vet, what should my game plan be? I was thinking 2 hot dogs, a soda and nachos before the game. A hot dog, peanuts, and soda around the 5th. Than maybe another dog in the 8th.

Will I be miserable doing that?

[Eric Stephen]

Kevin,

Are you going to combine foods to make some sort of mutant hybrid nacho salsa dog?

[cargill06]

Plus that's a lot of jalepenos. For my nachos and 4 dogs, major heartburn may follow.

[Harold]

Hollywood is Pythagorian record simply runs scored - runs allowed divided by games played?

[Tripon]

I still can't believe the Dodgers won this game.

[Eric Stephen]

Harold,

Pythagorean record is

runs scored, squared
divided by
(runs scored, squared + runs allowed, squared)

[cargill06]

Interesting read on Brewers hard throwing RHP Mark DeFelice.

http://tinyurl.com/qpowr2

His walk rates in the majors and the last few years in the minors are unreal.

[Eric Stephen]

Dodgers have scored 225 runs, and allowed 154, so their pythag win % is:

(225 x 225) / (225x225 + 154x154) = .681

.681 x 40 = 27.24 wins

[VA Blueblood]

Clown College.

I'll thank you not to refer to Princeton that way.

[Marty Leadman (LAT)]

Could we just call it a team's hypotenuse then?

[Tripon]

Also, did anyone see Jose Lima eating nachos at the game yesterday?

[Eric Stephen]

Could we just call it a team's hypotenuse then?

We could just say the Dodgers' pythag record is a good sine.

[kinbote]

I was told there would be no math today.

[VA Blueblood]

To me, our win total appears factorial.

27!

[VA Blueblood]

kinbote, this will be on the test.

[Kevin Lewis]

Cargill,

I went only once before, and I had two dogs and two nachos by the 2nd, so I just shut it down right then.

They stop serving the food (for free) 2 hours after the start of the game, so keep that in mind.

My goal tonight is to not feel rushed into eating stuff right away. I will show up for batting practice to hopefully catch a ball, and I think I will just have one dog and a soda. Then, after the game starts, I might pick up a nacho and a dog. Then, I will go with how my stomach feels.

Eric, last time I had a nacho dog (dipped it in the cheese). It was velvety good, but deep down inside, I knew I was doing something wrong.

[google boy]

Could we just call it a team's hypotenuse then?

We could just say the Dodgers' pythag record is a good sine.

Posted by: Eric Stephen | May 19, 2009 at 09:53 AM

I cosine that comment...okay no more!

[harold]

Thanks for the info, guys! I had seen people use that term on this blog before but never got around to googling it. :)

[DL]

The standings page on MLB.com has an option where you can list teams' "expected W-L record," which is pretty cool. They use an adjusted Pythagorean formula, where instead of squaring the numbers, they raise them to the 1.82nd power: RS^1.82/((RS^1.82)+(RA^1.82))

It has yet to be explained to me how a number can be raised to a fractional exponent. But I'm pretty bad at the maths, so I doubt I'd understand even if someone did explain it to me.

[Hollywood Joe]

Thanks Eric - always appreciate when I miss the math question

Jacob - another way I like to think about baseball and breaks is to distort the example of a coin flip.

In the first instance, think of a perfectly balanced machine built to flip coins in a manner which does not influence the outcome of the flip and a perfectly balanced coin being flipped by such machine; the outcome of the flip should be 50% heads and 50% tails. Easy enough. Even if heads landed 50 times in a row, or 500 times in a row, the chance of tails happening on the next flip would still be 50%. Tails can never be "due" when we look at the likely outcome of anyone flip. Even though all deviations over a large enough sample size will return to the mean of 50%.

Now think of an instance just like the last one, except in this case the machine to flip coins is designed in a way that heads comes up 60% of the time. Now imagine a flip that tails should come up, but some strange fluke happens like an object striking the coin right as the coin is about to land and because of that object our tails is changed to a heads (a fluke!!!). What is the chance of heads landing up on the next flip? It is of course, 60%. The Dodgers are heads. No matter what happens the game before this team is built to win more games than is loses going forward. Things like the 1 - 4 immediately after Manny will happen, some folks will twist their panties into a knot, but we know that these are just the bumps of the road.

As I said above, though in different language, winning by breaks only portents "karmic retribution" (which is what we are calling it, but not what I believe in) when the team wining is winning beyond what its to date performance would suggest

Does that make any sense at all?

[lurker]

Yes, enough with the geometry puns.

I prefer the conversation didn't go off on such a, ahem, tangent.

[356man]

Sounds like we're going on a tangent with Pythagoras...

[Sam PHL]

The Dodgers are 73-47 in their last 120 regular season games going back to July 1, 2008. That's a 99 win pace over the course of 162 games.

Not bad.

[DaDoughboy]

HJ,
That is the best definition of expected wins I've ever read. In fact, I may steal it verbatim when talking to some of my baseball team this weekend...Unfortunately, I think we are more of the 40% tails variety.

[GoBears]

HJ-

That's a nice concise lesson in probability theory, but it rests on a big assumption that may or may not be applicable to baseball. It assumes that the flips are independent of each other - that there is no "memory" of past outcomes. In baseball, or anything involving human beings, it's possible that the "flips" (games) are not independent events. If a player's performance is affected by his reaction to a prior performance (getting cocky or depressed, say), the trials are not independent, and last night's game CAN affect tonight's.

I'm not saying it happens. And even if it does, it would be hard a priori to guess the direction of an effect (do the Mets who made errors dwell on them and lose concentration tonight, or do they use their mistakes as extra motivation and play better than could otherwise be expected?). Who knows? Moreover, since the trials are different from one another (different pitchers, weather, pregame meal, whatever), there's just no way to know.

So what you illustrated is that the best a priori expectation is the base probability. Since we can't guess as to the nature of the hangover (the serial correlation) we can't do better than to assume it away and go with 60% (or whatever). But the analogy to coin flips is somewhat strained.

[delias man]

I actually ran into Lima in the Club Level last night. He was very "available" to fans back in 2004 as well. Always good for a nice hello. Really like him.

[D4P]

I was gonna launch into a treatise on how baseball games are not independent of each other (the way coin flips theoretically are), but figured I'd wait to see if GoBears could save me the trouble.

[DL]

To answer my own question about fractional exponents, I looked it up on wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponent_(mathematics)

It made my brain melt out through my ears. I know have a huge mess of liquified brains all over my desk, and I still don't know anything about fractional exponents.

Clowns are funny.

[Mitch]

Big pet peeve of mine violated in the Neyer chat today:

-

Joe, RI : So is Craig Biggio in the Hall then? He hung on, reached the same numbers Damon would reach (all in the weaker NL) and played crappy defense in his 30's? Can you say double standard?

Rob Neyer: Biggio was a legitimately great player who routinely was one of the 10 best players in the National League. Apple vs. Orange.

--

So not only is it "the weaker NL", it's been that way for the past twenty years? Makes you wonder why they even play the games.

[VA Blueblood]

HJ, that's good teaching right there.

Once in grad school (for Education) I was tasked with producing a lesson plan on anything at all; the assignment specifically stated that the content didn't matter one bit, provided I clearly identified objectives, instruction and assessment. Knowing that I'd be teaching History and English the rest of my life (and, as it turns out, Theater), I drew up a little number on both OPS and Pythagorean Run/Expected Win Theory.

I rocked the lesson: my objectives were clear (that the three trial students--my classmates--would understand the concepts), my instruction detailed everything I wanted understood, and my assessment was successful in determining comprehension (specifically because none of the three were sports fans to begin with). And I thoroughly enjoyed the exercise to boot.

Yet the professor failed me because she thought it had no classroom relevance.

I didn't care much for that particular professor after that, and have subsequently been very careful in sticking to stated rubrics and expectations in assigning my students work.

I may have told this story on here before. Sorry for the repetition.

Back to work.

[fanerman]

That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college!

[Hollywood Joe]

GoBears (and D4P) - fair enough, you are correct, and I considered it, but thought it was not worth the trouble in going the extra step.

I mentally build it into the model of the machine that hits out at a 60% heads clip (as being any one of the possible factors that results in 60%) but neglected to call it out and thought it would make it overly complex and messy, when my intent was a simple analogy that could be understood and applied on a high level.

Should have never tried to sneek such a weak fastball by this crew.

and DA, thanks, feel free to use it with the appropriate disclaimers related to player memory (and fatigue, and injury, and home sickness, and hang over, and.....)

[delias man]

I can not stand when they even allow those questions. You can debate his candidacy, but to compare to Damon? Damon still needs 100 homeruns to catch him up there. No top 10 MVP's either. Biggio had a great career. Slides into the HOF in my book.

[Kevin Lewis]

I don't think any of us expected that

[DL]

I've used the weighted coin flip analogy before to detail why fantasy football leagues that use head-to-head matchups are totally bogus.

[underdog]

I actually do have two friends who went to clown college here in SF, if, you know, you ever get really (un)serious about studying, fanerman.

--

Meanwhile, the NY Times' Ethicist chimes in:

Is Manny Ramirez Really All That Bad?
http://tinyurl.com/p5usyf

This is quite a take on things. Definitely read.

[Alex41592]

For those outside L.A and have MLB Network.

Bob Costas & Harold Reynolds will be doing the Dodgers/Cubs game on MLB Network next Thursday May 28th.

[Hollywood Joe]

Thanks VA - I love that story of the lesson plan. Great on so many levels.

You know my fantasy profession, after being a professional baseball player, is probably teaching philosophy, history, and english to kids that really like subjects like philosophy, history, and english (and maybe be the baseball coach too when I really start to dream!)

A teacher is what I wanted to be when I was 10 years old and I have never really lost the yearning for it.

A goal when I went into business years and years ago was to change careers at 50, I have a little more than 8 more years left....Wish me luck, I might be asking you for a job!!

[Hollywood Joe]

DL - in my league we like the head to head aspect of FF but understand its bogusness so we split prize money equally between the points champion and the head to head champion.

Keeps the fun of the one on one but doesn't hose the guy who scores a ton of points but happens to have a ton of points scored against them

[regfairfield]

If Johnny Damon gets into the Hall of Fame I win a burrito, so I'm all for the idea he's as good as Biggio.

[blue22]

To be fair to Neyer, Mitch, I don't see him supporting the questioner's claim that the NL was weaker during Biggio's heyday. He says that Biggio was routinely a top-10 player in the NL and is (presumably) a HOFer (and by comparison Damon is not). He does not seem to pass any judgements about the quality of the leagues (at least not there, just wait another question or two before he sandbags the NL again).

[Hollywood Joe]

underdog at 10:45 AM

THANK YOU for that link. It really made my day.

It was an unexpected ounce of intelligence and perspective injected into a national discussion filled with pounds of foolishness and shouting.

I can only hope that it will be read and understood by a wider audience than I imagine will find it interesting.

Really, compare it to this trash... http://tinyurl.com/o6zxf9

[Jon Weisman]

Just did an interview with ESPN 710 AM's Mason & Ireland. Will post a link later.

[Kevin Lewis]

Underdog,

Thanks for the link. That was an excellent article

[Hollywood Joe]

"Just did an interview with ESPN 710 AM's Mason & Ireland"

My new coffee fueled idea...

Jon = Media star for the next generation of fans. Humanity, a bit of the romantic, a love of the language and the game all mixed with statistical acumen and a modern understanding of baseball.

We need you to go off like a rocket ship Jon. You are the perfect ambassador to the old white guy world and the voice of the world that is coming

[Kevin Lewis]

I know I have no impact on the excellent work that Jon does, but every time he has an interview or another reference in an article somewhere, I feel proud.

[kinbote]

Will there ever be a "blogger" in the Hall of Fame?

[underdog]

I definitely now feel like the next TV piece on Manny should feature the level-headed Jon Weisman and Randy Cohen, rather than the likes of Plaschke.

[Hollywood Joe]

Well said Kevin

[GoBears]

HJ - I was thinking more about the coin-flip metaphor whilst out walking the dog. If,when someone says "the fates will punish the Dodgers in payment for that lucky win" they mean that good luck must be balanced by bad luck, then your reference to coin flips is quite apt. "The fates" won't do anything. In that sense, unless we believe in a vengeful god, the trials ARE independent.

If they mean that the Dodgers will get their comeuppance because they'll get cocky or the Mets will bear down, then of course the whole claim is about serial correlation, and the coin flip analogy is irrelevant.

In the case of the comment to which you were responding, I think you were correct to infer the former meaning as opposed to the latter. So your probability primer was appropriate, and I was out of line. Sorry about that.

[Kevin Lewis]

I should add that I feel proud and extremely happy for Jon

[Keven C]

Will there ever be a "blogger" in the Hall of Fame?

Posted by: kinbote | May 19, 2009 at 11:15 AM

Curt Schilling maybe.

[Eric Stephen]

Jon, was it a "websclusive?"

[Eric Stephen]

I believe the link to Jon's interview is up:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/player?id=4179549

[Hollywood Joe]

GoBears - fair enough and no need to appologize.

I agree with you that I was responding to the vengeful karmic gods, yet the serial correlation aspect of the problem also crept into my thinking mainly because memory, as you called out, is involved with humans and not with coins. But I banished to the thought to make my comment clean (and easier) to write and read.

Maybe my whole point really was and is, Karma or any other word or phrase for "due a streak of bad luck" are foolish things for fans of good teams to be scared of.

But instead of saying it like that (like an opinion), I was trying to explain why that is. But once again, you start trying to explain the simple, but you leave the simple in the name of completeness, it can turn on you and get really complex really fast.

This is far more fun than I expected on a Tuesday AM.

Here is a question for the group. If you could go to the game tonight and see Bills pitch, or tomorrow and see the Dodgers absolutely rake against Livian, but you can't go to both...which do you choose?

[D4P]

I know I have no impact on the excellent work that Jon does, but every time he has an interview or another reference in an article somewhere, I feel proud

It's not unreasonable to think that Jon's success is partially a function of Dodger Thoughts traffic, so we are all partially to (opposite of) blame.

[underdog]

Stop asking Jon Mets questions! We don't care! ;-)

[underdog]

(Sorry, that was directed at Mason and Ireland.)

[Marty Leadman (LAT)]

I go see Bills. Sometimes the Dodgers flail away at Livan.

[Kevin Lewis]

Bills pitch, but that might be because I am going tonight no matter what.

One thing I know to be true in my own playing experience is that a game with a lot of errors can weigh on the defense and the pitcher. But it is possible that pro players are able to get past this emotional pitfall.

[Humma Kavula]

Johnny Damon is finishing up a very, very good career. He was great for the Royals, and it should be noted that he had a fine, fine season for the Red Sox in the season that they needed him to have a fine, fine season, 2004.

Johnny Damon's HOF case is entirely due to people seeing his gaudy early numbers this year and thinking that he might not be done. What they're missing is that oh yeah, dude is done. He might not be done this year -- perhaps he can put together one more season of value. But for Damon to sniff the Hall of Fame, he will need to continue the level of play he's established over the last six weeks for, oh, say, five more years. That will not happen.

That said, none of that takes away from what is a very, very good career.

[Humma Kavula]

Also, this:

Johnny Damon's total number of seasons with an OPS over 900: Zero.

Johnny Damon's total number of seasons with an OPS over 800: Seven. Well, six, but one at 799, so we'll give it to him and call it seven. Seven seasons at CF with an OPS of 799 or more is very, very good.

Craig Biggio played mostly 2B and C, put up two seasons over 900, two more in the 890s, and a total of nine seasons over 800. At a more difficult defensive position.

That is the difference between a very, very nice player to have on your team and a Hall of Famer.

[Jon Weisman]

It's not unreasonable to think that Jon's success is partially a function of Dodger Thoughts traffic, so we are all partially to (opposite of) blame.

Posted by: D4P | May 19, 2009 at 11:38 AM

Definitely.

[kinbote]

Humma--Don't tell me you're out of seals!

[regfairfield]

Damon was a solid player last year, he's not done. After this year he's going to be sitting on ~2400 hits, 200 home runs, and 400 steals. If he doesn't completely collapse the rest of the year, the Yankees will re-sign him.

He's really not a Hall Of Famer, he can join Steve Finley in the Hall of Very Good, but if he can get a two year contract, then hang around on a bad team as a veteran presence, he's got a shot at 3000 hits. If that happens (and I'm not saying it's a good chance) who knows what the Hall will think about him.

[underdog]

My Name is Earl fans, get out your hankies, as the show has been canceled by NBC. (Not that I've watched it since the first season mind you... but I know it has its fans.)

[Humma Kavula]

One more thing -- I'll borrow from Bill James.

Things like HBP and ROE (and counting twice for GIDP) don't figure into a player's OBP. For most players, it all balances out.

Biggio is a player for which it doesn't balance out. Biggio is #2 all time in HBP and #238 all time in GIDP. (For what it's worth, Damon also avoids the GIDP very, very well, but has just about 20% of Biggio's HBPs.)

So Biggio gets another edge here, if he needs it, which he doesn't.

[Humma Kavula]

Reg -- sure, I can see that happening. But I think it's also just as likely that age catches up to him very quickly.

Damon in the HOF wouldn't really bother me, I guess. As I've said, he's a very, very good player. I wouldn't vote for him, but I can see the argument that he sneaks in.

I just think that if his case depends on comparing him to Craig Biggio.... well, I think he compares poorly to Craig Biggio. Damon better than Biggio? That is a silly argument and, yes, one that I award the Humma Kavula Seal of Nonsense.

[fanerman]

Can we collect Humma Kavula Seals like one can collect stamps?

[regfairfield]

Oh, no question, Biggio is better than Damon. I just like that Damon has piled up way more counting stats than you'd think.

[Humma Kavula]

In other news, I still cannot believe that Church missed third base.

Repeat: Can. Not. Believe. It.

[Kevin Lewis]

Humma Kavula,

I know. I just didn't think stuff like that happened in the majors anymore. It happens at least once each game for softball...but the majors? Wow

[quirkzoo]

orange bag!

[Kevin Lewis]

Wow, that is some promotion that Jetblue is doing tomorrow at the Angels game.

Per Diamond:
http://tinyurl.com/pfr7s2

[Kevin Lewis]

Ah, the Orange Bag at first base. You would think that after 5 seasons of Softball people would understand this rule. Same goes for the extension at home plate

[Jack]

Underdog - has The Office been renewed? How many seasons do you think is left of that show?

[Jon Weisman]

"The Office" has definitely been renewed, with no expiration date.

[Serp]

Speaking of Steve Finely, that guy came into my work the other day. I wanted to say hi and "remind" him of that magical grand slam he hit to get us to the post season... but he seemed pissed...i think he is getting sued.

[Hollywood Joe]

Nothing like lawyer client confidentiality!

[Billy Blue]

Kyle Russell update:
Russell is leading the Midwest League in HR with 10 and has an OPS of .994

http://midwest.league.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=l_bat&lid=118&sid=l118

[Harold]

I felt bad for Ryan Church, mostly because he's from Santa Barbara (county). They said Lompoc on last night's broadcast.

The MLBers I knew or knew of from the area are:

Casey Candaele (did Coley make it to the bigs?)
Robin Ventura
Ryan Spilborghs
Ryan Church

Who else is there?

[BlueinBerkeley]

Reading these comments in the Bay Area, where we Dodger fans are a minority, is an utter joy. I love you guys (and gals). Thanks for keeping me entertained!

[Phenomenal Smith]

I could have sworn that in 1988 I attended a Giants-Phillies game at Candlestick Park and Jeffrey Leonard was called out for missing third. It had been part of my whole memory of that time.

And I now discover that not only did Leonard not get called out for missing third in that game, he didn't even play in the game.

I don't know what to believe about my memory now. Or my existence. The phone has been ringing at work, but no one at the other end can hear me. People walk past me without saying hello.

Except for this one little kid who seems really scared all the time.