This is my brain ... this is my brain on Andruw Jones

"I feel like I'm cursed," I said out loud at work last month, after a Delta Airlines computer fouled up a five-month-old reservation of mine. 

"Maybe you are," my Variety colleague Stuart Levine replied.

I laughed, mildly amazed. I had just been venting, but what if it were true? Not universally, but what if, in certain select areas, I really was cursed?

The thought came back to me as I worked on my taxes today and reviewed my personal financial wreckage from 2008. I realized that all the money I might earn from my upcoming book, which I spent more than six months writing, could have been made in one night if I hadn't been lost in my Oct. 1 deadline as the economy began to tank. I might have responded sooner to the crisis and saved myself a pile of losses that I'll spend at least the entire year trying to make back.

Of course, I wasn't nearly alone in taking a beating last fall, but as I look to the future, my attitude is such that I ask myself not whether I will mess up again, but rather how will I do it?  What path will my inevitable pound-foolishness find? I don't always feel this way, but it does come in waves. 

And at the end of the day (literally, not figuratively), I sit here wondering if Ned Colletti ever feels similarly damned. Sure, he's had plenty of success -- two division titles in three years, for one thing. I've had my moments as well.  But speaking on a purely personal level, does he ever fear, in a way that he'd never admit to publicly, that in certain areas he can do no right? Have there been moments, a year after Andruw Jones, two years after Juan Pierre, where Colletti has feared that no matter what choice he makes regarding the signing (or not) of a free-agent outfielder, it will be the wrong one?

The question has a whiff (pun intended) of timeliness, not because of any developments on the Manny Ramirez beat, but because Texas general manager Jon Daniels told Jeff Wilson of the Dallas Morning News that the Rangers have agreed to terms with Jones on a non-guaranteed minor-league contract. (Tony Jackson of the Daily News was among those who had the link.)

The contract would cause $500,000 of the Rangers' money to go into Jones' bank account if he makes the team, with the potential of another $1 million in incentives. Of course, from Jones' perspective, this is a mere accounting procedure, because no matter what happens, he'll continue to earn many times that from the Dodgers, with the Rangers' portion amounting to a relative pittance.

So, the future has begun. And now we wait, and wonder more, and consider a scenario where the Dodger left-fielder-to-be-named-later blows out a knee or a gasket in April, while Jones slowly but surely works his way back and becomes a Comeback Player of the Year. No, I wouldn't bet on it happening.  But who ever said I haven't missed on a bet? Who am I not to fear the worst?

Anyway, I'm not predicting anything. This post isn't about predicting anything. It certainly isn't about being rational. This post is about the irrational feeling I sometimes get that, even after giving my best effort -- which is all I can ask of myself -- Murphy's Law will send me to the slammer. With no bearing on the coming season, I am just idly wondering out loud if the guy running the Dodgers ever feels that way too.

Ah, probably not.

Update: Here's the Texas depth chart. Adam J. Morris of Lone Star Ball doesn't see a spot for Jones on the Rangers 25-man roster.

I don't get this move.  It tells me that the Rangers don't believe that Nelson Cruz or Brandon Boggs are major league caliber outfielders.  If they did, there's no place for Jones on this team.

I know it will be suggested that adding Jones means that the Rangers can move Marlon Byrd, but they could do that anyway.  I'd be perfectly on board with going with a Murphy/Boggs platoon in left field, Hamilton in center, and Cruz in right.  That Murphy/Boggs combination could give you above average offense and defense in left from a couple of guys who will be making the league minimum for a couple more years.

That option, though, appears to be getting pushed by the wayside for the opportunity to bring in another "reclamation project," another guy in his 30s who isn't part of the future of this team, but which the rebuilding Rangers appear to think can be part of the present.

I don't get it.  With Byrd, Murphy, Hamilton and Cruz all here, plus Blalock at DH, there's no room for Jones to get any playing time even if he looks okay this spring.  Keeping Jones on the 25 man roster to start the season only makes sense if you are going to play him regularly,  and it seems likely his playing time would come at the expense of Cruz, who, after his strong finish to 2008, seemed to be in position to be the starting right fielder, but who now appears to be back in limbo.  ...

Adjusted OPS for the aforementioned names last year (100 being average):

170 Cruz (R, 28 years old)
136 Hamilton (L, 27)
123 Byrd (R, 31)
106 Murphy (L, 27)
94 Boggs (S, 26)
34 Jones (R, 31), who has topped 120 in OPS+ four times in his career, with a high of 136.

Comments

[Eric Stephen]

According to both Tony Jackson and Diamond Leung, the Dodgers get half of what Andruw makes (as opposed to all of it, up to $3.7m), which is why for Andruw's sake it actually matters what his new club will pay him.

In a weird way, we have to root for Jones to succeed, because if he earns the full $1.5m the Dodgers will get $750,000 that they can put in their "take on salary in a trade so we don't have to trade premium prospects" pot.

Jon, the feeling of doubt is always there, but can also prove quite the motivating tool, if of course it doesn't consume you first. I have often questioned just about every decision I've ever made, but I'm at my best when I can convince myself to "suck it up, Slappy" and not worry about it.

(I call myself Slappy sometimes).

[Hollywood Joe]

Really good stuff Jon

[Jon Weisman]

Yeah, I saw that on Tony's blog. I have to say, I found it curious that it would be a straight 50-percent cut across the board: base salary and incentives. What's the logic of that? What would cause that to be the case?

It doesn't fit any pattern that I recognize in previous situations where a cast-off with a guaranteed contract signs with another team.

I'm not saying it's wrong, and I'm not doubting Tony's account of what his source told him, but I still didn't find it entirely convincing.

[Marty Leadman (LAT)]

I'm just wondering when that raccoon that's taken up residence on Ned's head is going to eat his face off.

[Jon Weisman]

I still can't get over Odom: 15 points and 10 rebounds in the third quarter alone today.

[Boblawblaw]

Every personnel move is a gamble. Some are bound to pay off, and some won't. Ned struck gold with Manny, but lost big with Schmidt, Jones, & others. I'm just glad that Jones is gone, and hopeful that Schmidt is healthy enough to give some productive innings this year.

[bokonon42]

The raccoon doesn't have a wristwatch.

[Eric Stephen]

Jon,

The only thing I can think of is that it was a condition of the release of Andruw that the Dodgers only get half, as opposed to the normal 100% up to $3.7m.

Andruw is essentially deferring his $22m over 6 years at 0% interest so besides his freedom to look for work perhaps a concession was the 50% deal so Andruw could still earn more money.

Weird though, and very unique.

[Tripon]

Every personnel move is a gamble. Some are bound to pay off, and some won't. Ned struck gold with Manny, but lost big with Schmidt, Jones, & others. I'm just glad that Jones is gone, and hopeful that Schmidt is healthy enough to give some productive innings this year.

Posted by: Boblawblaw | February 08, 2009 at 09:11 PM

Except the moves to sign Schmidt, Jones, JP, etc. were made to mitigate gambles. They were 'sure' things, veterans with known qualities who would give you consistent production. Its why Ned Coletti paid more to acquire these players.

[Eric Stephen]

The guy in the Slap Chop commercial wastes an awful lot of onion when he removes the skin.

[overkill94]

As for the whole "talent doesn't have a wristwatch" nonsense...The Walkmen were way ahead of the curve when they named one of their songs "Revenge Wears No Wristwatch" back in 2002. Hamilton Leithauser owns you, Boras!

[eekrock]

doh, i missed music talk.

if you are at all into power pop (of the Paul Collins Beat/Nerves variety), may I highly recommend the Gentleman Jesse & his Men record from last year.

and if you are into Ramones style punk, Nobunny's "Love Visions" has some seriously catchy songs (check out Chuck Berry Holiday).

lastly, I enjoyed the Night Marchers "See You In Magic", but I'm quite biased to the San Diego scene.

[MollyKnight]

Why are we paying Brad Penny $2 million if he's on another team this year?

[LABits]

I missed the wristwatch+Boras reference. Where was that?

I don't wear a wristwatch. Guess that makes me... talent?

Just when they get to stop paying Carlos Perez, the Airship floats away with more dough.

[Eric Stephen]

Molly,

The $2m was a buyout of his $9.25 million option.

[Dodgers49]

09:22 PM The only thing I can think of is that it was a condition of the release of Andruw that the Dodgers only get half, as opposed to the normal 100% up to $3.7m.

This seems to me like something Boras would come up with. Although, of course, I have no knowledge as to whose idea it really was. It could even have been Ned's idea. But I doubt it.

[John Hale]

Delino Deshields Jr has listed UCLA and Oregon as two of his early favorites in the recruiting process. He is a running back in the class of 2010.
I hope if he comes to UCLA it works out better then when Willie Crawfords kid (also a Jr but I could be wrong) was on the team and ended up getting arrested for stealing stero equipment.

[Dodgers49]

10:08 PM I missed the wristwatch+Boras reference. Where was that?

Dodgers Debate Next Move After Rejection by Manny Ramírez

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/sports/baseball/08ramirez.html

[Dodgers49]

10:08 PM I missed the wristwatch+Boras reference. Where was that?

Dodgers Debate Next Move After Rejection by Manny Ramírez

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/sports/baseball/08ramirez.html

[Dodgers49]

My first double post at the Times. :-)
It was bound to happen sooner or later.

[LAbits]

Still trying to figure out the TypePad thing... is there anything special to it, or is it just a URL to go in the URL blank.

Name: DT Handle
Email: Email I use on TypePad
URL: TypePad profile

Is that right?

[Eric Stephen]

I believe the 900-foot McGwire off Randy Johnson HR is about to happen on MLB network.

[BHSportsguy]

It must be the 7th inning of the Grammys. Or is it the 8th?

[Eric Stephen]

Wow, that Big Mac HR was a long one. He killed the Kingdome!

[aj]

eekrock:

I love me some Swami/RFTC music. I saw the Hot Snakes many years ago and not only did they rock, btu they also made a Huell Howser reference. Night Marchers definitely bring the jams.

I vote that when Broxton closes, his introduction music is something by Rocket From the Crypt.

[LAT]

Ned is not cursed, he's just not a very good at his job. He makes bad decisions. He knew Schmidt was hurt when he signed him. (It would be like buying Citi Bank today cause you just can't believe the headlines are true.) JP was an average stock for which Ned paid way too much. (Think BofA buying Merrill Lynch). Ned might be cursed if he made well reasoned decisions that didn't pan out for unforeseen reasons. But his two biggest mistakes were foreseeable. That is not a curse just bad judgment.

As for you and the stock market; you are not alone. If you are cursed, so is the rest of the world. Not to mention that as compared to Ned, you are not a professional investor, Ned is a GM.

[eekrock]

Nice, aj.

i'm a man with an RFTC tat. drove down from LB for the first NM show at BPE. Good times!

I hear the NM may be playing in LB at Alex's very soon.

goo'night everybody.

[jasonungar]

Say we have 25 Mill per season and 65 Mill for three:

Just out of the FA pool and being fair with what you already know about current dodger roster construction is there really a combination of players still available that would be better for this season than just getting Manny?

Would that combination also be better say over the next three years for the dodgers then Manny for 3?

[LAT]

Apparently the Grammy's was sent into a panic when Chris Brown was arrested and withdrew from the opening act with Al Green shortly before the show started. Rehana also withdrew. Apparently, they had a fight last night after Grammy rehearsal and he sent her to the hospital. But I thought Timberlake did a great job filling in. That guy can do anything. I think Ned should sign him to play LF.

[Louis in San Francsico]

Liked the post and I do wonder if Ned thinks he is cursed, especially when picking up free agent outfielders. I wish Ned at times like many I think on this site would take gambles on players with more upside, especially if they are younger. So at times Ned adds greater risk to his decisions, especially if they fail. Hopefully he won't fail in this outfield choice, and Manny will make Ned and all Dodger fans happy.

[Dodgers49]

Ken Rosenthal doesn't agree with Fred Claire:

A-Rod faces more problems by 'coming clean'

>> Why should Rodriguez provide official confirmation when he already is guilty in the court of public opinion, and when the government might consider any confession an open invitation to investigate him? <<

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9199886/A-Rod-faces-more-problems-by-'coming-clean'

[das411]

Excellent post as always Jon, but...Is anybody else really really loving the game that MLBN is airing right now? A quality start by Steve Karsay, three hits by Rafael Bournigal, a mammoth homer by Mark McGwire...and so far 15 strikeouts by His Unitness through six and a half innings!

[das411]

Ahh of course Eric Stephen would also be watching it! And Future Dodger Mark Bellhorn has already struck out three times, does that make him cursed for just this game?

[Dodgers49]

Baseball contracts can be off the wall

>> So the Atlanta Braves, who will pay pitcher Derek Lowe a fortune over the next four years, also agreed to give him a hotel suite whenever the team is on the road. <<

http://tinyurl.com/addll6

[Boblawblaw]

LAT-

I remember when Ned signed JP & Gonzo - it didn't seem to make sense except it showed how much he valued PVL, and how little confidence he had in Kemp & Ethier. I was excited when he signed Schmidt, but the fact that Ned knew he was injured at the time is unforgivable.

With Jones I think he I bought mostly on reputation despite Jones' dwindling stats from the prior year. I think he must have figured it was just a bad year for Andruw rather than the start of a trend. He could have reasoned that '07 Andruw's 26 HR/ 96 RBI would have led the '07 Dodgers in both depts. . IIRC, Andruw was one of the last big FA names available, and it was pretty commonly known that Ned wanted to add some pop to the lineup. He rolled the dice and lost big-time on that move! I was glad he only signed him for 2 years, but it was obviously a gamble at the time.

[berkowit28]

The info on Jones' half-pay to Dodgers is now on dodgers.com, courtesy of Gurnick. It ends:

"On Sunday, Jones agreed to a Minor League contract with the Texas Rangers worth $500,000 if he makes their Major League roster and an additional $1 million in incentives if he reaches 620 plate appearances, so the Dodgers could receive as much as $750,000 back."

"As much as $750,000"? Gee, wow. That'll make a real dent in the $21.1 million remaining. Most likely he won't make enough even to wipe out the .1, rounded.

[D4P]

I have little doubt that Ned feels cursed, which is one of the things about him that bugs me the most.

The old dog seems completely unwilling/unable to learn new tricks, or to scrutinize his own philosophy in order to determine whether or not his own line of thinking could be responsible for what he instead chalks up to bad luck.

"Look at yourself: LOOK...AT...YOURSELF. When was the last time you sat down at a mirror and looked at yourself?"

[Sam DC]

Given that my financial wreckage probably looks up from the bottom of the ravine at Jon's and LAT's and thinks "how do those guys always get so lucky," I'm not one to sniff at $750K.

But I really don't get it. Does this somehow go in the are-they-broke-file with Carlos Santana and the "wouldn't our fans rather build ballfields for the kids" remarks?

[bokonon42]

LAbits- The Typepad thing (the way I've been doing it, anyway) is that you sign into Typepad, and then that overrides whatever is in the boxes at this site. You can leave the boxes blank and it'll still show your user name, linked to the profile.

[Eric Stephen]

Sam,

If anything, negotiating getting "only" half of Andruw's salary shows the opposite. Under normal situations involving released players being paid by other clubs, any salary the player earns with his new team would be paid 100% to the old club.

Then again, no team would pay Andruw more than the MLB minimum of $400k if that were the case. But it is quite a longshot for Andruw to earn the $1.5 million, let alone make the team anyway.

[Bob Hendley]

Least we forget, Ned is rolling the dice with Rafi, no?

[Bob Hendley]

I mean, in the colorful language of DT, you could have gone with PVL suckitude and cost us a draft pick in order to fill the ss slot. JP could always lead off. ;-)

[Jon Weisman]

Here are the names competing for outfield spots on the Ranger roster:

Brandon Boggs*
Julio Borbon
Marlon Byrd
Frank Catalanotto
Nelson Cruz
Greg Golson
Josh Hamilton*
David Murphy*
* Played more than 100 games for Rangers last year.

There is also the DH spot, which Milton Bradley mostly held, but the emergence of Chris Davis might push Hank Blalock there, if I'm not mistaken.

[Jon Weisman]

Adam J. Morris at Lone Star Ball doesn't see a spot for Jones on the team.

[Jon Weisman]

http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/2/8/753235/daniels-confirms-rangers-s

[Doug Minnick]

Ned's trade history: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

When viewed in such a concise list form, it's amazing how often he misses.

[Jon Weisman]

Adjusted OPS for the aforementioned names last year (100 being average):

170 Cruz (R, 28 years old)
136 Hamilton (L, 27)
123 Byrd (R, 31)
106 Murphy (L, 27)
94 Boggs (S, 26)
34 Jones (R, 31), who has topped 120 in OPS+ four times in his career, with a high of 136.

[D4P]

It would be fun to ask Frank McCourt if he still considers "hiring Ned" to be the best decision he ever made.

[Sam DC]

Eric -- I understand, but then, why? Effort was put into requiring this weird small by mlb standards payment to the Dodgers. Why?

[Hollywood Joe]

Jon
Just saw the plug for the blog this AM in the sports section - it made me happy

I showed it to my wife but she wasn't sure what I was showing her or why

A week into the new DT home, I can say with great conviction that it isn't location that makes a home but rather company. The company is always good at DT and it feels much like it ever did.

[Jon Weisman]

Thanks, Hollywood Joe. I just saw that this minute. I hope others feel the same way. (Although I fear that excerpt by itself in print will make me come across as hopelessly naive.)

[bokonon42]

If Jones mounts a monster come back, he'll (maybe) get a big contract next year, and then the re-pay clause will matter more. It's a hedge against Jones' turning his career back around.

[SF Dodgerfan]

Funny post on Ned, Jon, but I have to wonder what the people in Texas think of Jon Daniels. They take one reclamation project after another. Sosa, Gagne, now Jones. They've had some success (obviously no pressure down there), so I wonder if Jones will at least do average compared to last year.

At least Ned and the Dodgers have the chance of winning. The Rangers always take the chance on the reject...and still never seem to be any better.

Scott
www.sfdodgerfan.com

[DL]

Which was worse, in terms of sheer Dodger suckitude: Daryle Ward in 2003, or Andruw Jones in 2008?

Ward: OPS+ of 9 in 114 plate appearances.
Jones: OPS+ of 34 in 238 plate appearances.

And for those of you think Jones is finished, keep in mind that Ward has been pretty good the last few years. He OPS+'d 139 and 144 in 2006 and 2007, although he fell to 84 last season. And we all know Jones is historically a much better player than Ward.

[Sam DC]

bokonon @7:31

Makes perfect sense, not sure why I was looking at it so narrowly.

Meanwhile, actual headline on cnn.com right now: "Kid Scores 890,971 Guitar Hero Record"

[bokonon42]

If Jones does turn his career around, though, I'd recommend that he not eat anything in the gift basket Colletti sends ostensibly to congratulate him for it. Or at least he should let his kids take the first run at it and see what happens.

[D4P]

**I'd recommend that he not eat anything in the gift basket**

As Luke said to Yoda when the latter suggested the former use The Force(insert TM symbol here) to lift the former's X-wing fighter out of the Dagobah swamp,

"You ask the impossible."

[DL]

You went all the way to Dagobah just to make an Andruw-Jones-is-fat joke?

I admire your dedication.

[poppinfresh]

Do they have Twinkies and Cake in the Ranger's minor league affiliate? By by FAJ. Glad you are finally gone.

Has anybody read mlbtraderumors.com's article about ranking our wonderful GM Ned Flanders? I wont spoil the rating for you all...

[D4P]

**You went all the way to Dagobah just to make an Andruw-Jones-is-fat joke?**

It's far, far away in terms of galaxies, but lightspeed is pretty fast, so it doesn't really take that long.

[DL]

There's a Jabba the Hutt joke that's just dying to be made here, but I can't think of it right now.

[greenchris]

I have a buddy who plays for the Rangers, he told me Andruw worked out for the Rangers and was absolutely crushing the ball and it was the hitting coach who pushed for the move. He also mentioned that he's lost 20lb's and looks to be in great shape. I hope he flops.

[regfairfield]

Any team arguing about giving Brandon Boggs or Nelson Cruz playing time has much bigger issues than what to do with Andruw Jones if he figures things out again.

[cargill06]

The guy in the Slap Chop commercial wastes an awful lot of onion when he removes the skin.

Posted by: Eric Stephen | February 08, 2009 at 09:24 PM

Why does he always wear a headset in his commercials? And why does he' feel he needs to scream at me to sell things? I guess he's not as bad as that Al Borland looking guy who sells things.

[Jon Weisman]

Ken Gurnick's Camelback Ranch preview at MLB.com: http://tinyurl.com/ccwujb

[Jon Weisman]

And Alyssa Milano steals my thunder...

http://alyssa.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/02/offseason_blues.html

[Phenomenal Smith]

Great, SHE gets the MLB Network, but I don't.

[D4P]

**With a Foreward by Joe Torre**

Does this mean we'll get a tell-all about Alyssa and Brad Penny?

[chris]

Jon, you really should have ended that post with, "any questions?"

[okdodge]

Count me down as one who thinks the Rangers outfield is too crowded for Andruw. Hamilton and Byrd are locks. I watched Nelson Cruz play at AAA about ten games last summer, the guy can rake and he plays a pretty good outfield w/ an above average arm. I'd be really surprised if he didn't make their roster. Boggs and Murphy are both pretty solid guys. With those players and Andruw's recent below par performance in winter ball I just don't see him making the team. If he accepted an assignment to AAA it would be interesting to see how he did. He crushed the ball last year when he was rehabbing so you never know.

[okdodge]

Regarfield-

What don't you like about Nelson Cruz's game?

[LandonKK]

Do we know any more details on the Jones 50% payback thing? Is it just this year? Is it for the 5 years we are making deferred payments? Is it until we get paid back (yeah right)? I would assume that it is until we have paid him in full which really stinks because the last thing I want to do is hope for his resurgence. I'm cool with missing out on $750k this year, but it would be nice if he played well enough to get a 5 or 6 mill. deal for a few years....

OK, so I have decided that my official position is: I already wrote him and the expense off in my mind so as far as am concerned I hope he is a huge FLOP.

[immouch]

ok, i know we're near the end of the off season because the commentary is scraping the bottom.
a few points:
* ned/rocky raccoonhead as talented but cursed risk taker? please. a recent lawsuit found that ned KNEW about schmidt's bad shoulder before signing him. if that, alone, doesn't get him fired, nothing will. that's an outrage.
* andrew jones will not make any MLB team ever again.
* manny would be one of those players who "pays for himself" says boras. maybe/maybe not. depends on what he's signed for. whoever let boras say that without bringing up the obvious was wasting everybody's time.

[jpg]

A Jones will be comeback player of the year. No pressure, great hitting environment, and motivation. I'll sink with the A Jones Flotilla. Based on the recent photo's we've seen, we'd all be so lucky to be in that kind of shape. Not sure what some posters will have to work with once the fat jokes run into reality but it's been played.

[Jon Weisman]

Did someone say Ned was talented? I sure didn't. And again, my point (I hope it was clear) was not that I thought Ned was cursed, but whether Ned ever thought he was cursed.

[D4P]

**manny would be one of those players who "pays for himself" says boras**

This makes me wonder: is there a good way to estimate Manny's impact on revenue (i.e. revenue with Manny minus revenue without Manny)?

[Sam DC]

I've never seen an episode of Dancing with the Stars, but it's quite a lineup they've got this time around.

Steve Wozniak? I thought he was the techsmart introvert.

Jewel is married to a bull rider?

[jpg]

D4P-to many variables we are not privy to. Just a few examples.
1. How many season ticket holders use their tickets because Manny is in the lineup. They have already paid for their tickets but the % of food/goods purchased if they attended the game could be attributed to Manny.
2. How many walk ups came because of Manny.
3. How much money did those walkups spend on food/goods.
4. How many number 99 jerseys sold.
5. How many dreadlocks sell.
6. How much did the visitor gate increase with walkups because Manny was in town
7. Postseaon money

It should be easy for the Dodgers to figure it out, not so easy for outsiders.

[D4P]

**Jewel is married to a bull rider?**

Yes. They've been together for over 10 years, but only recently tied the lasso.

On a related note, her latest album is a country album, and while I generally like it, I hope she hasn't "gone country" for good.

[jpg]

Jon - Only losers think they are cursed. Every time Ned starts to lament to himself about A Jones and Schmidt he only needs to remember Magic Marlon and he will realize his ledger is just like everyone else's.

[Eric Stephen]

"This makes me wonder: is there a good way to estimate Manny's impact on revenue (i.e. revenue with Manny minus revenue without Manny)"

D4P,

I think this is one of those things that's hard to ultimately measure (like defense, perhaps?), but we would have to find out:

1) Manny's impact on attendance

This is difficult to measure. Are the extra butts in seats solely because of Manny or are some other factors in play (summer vs. school time, day vs. night, weekend vs. weekdays, etc). You could argue that since Manny could help the Dodgers win, that will drive the attendance upward since performance is the most common driver of attendance.

For instance, the Dodgers averaged more with Manny last year (I think it was 4,500 or so per game), but I have to think part of the reason was that they were in a pennant race. Then again, Manny was largely responsible for presence in said race, so there you go.

2) Manny's impact on other revenue

Well, the extra parking and concessions can be estimated based on our quantity guessed/estimated in #1.

Of course, the easy part to measure is the profit from the dreadlock hats, Manny shirts/jerseys, etc.

[Jon Weisman]

I really tried to emphasize the importance of irrationality in my post, but I guess it's getting lost on some.

[jpg]

According to MLBTR Ned has made 25 trades since taking over. The only player still on the team who he traded for is Andre Etheir, his very first trade.

Casey Blake is also on the team but he signed as free agent so I don't think we can count him.

That is remarkable. One player. I'll say one thing for him, he doesn't cling to his players.

[D4P]

**According to Ken Rosenthal, "Rich Aurilia will return to the Giants on a minor-league contract."**

QED

[SaMo]

"wondering if Ned Colletti ever feels similarly damned. does he ever fear, in a way that he'd never admit to publicly, that in certain areas he can do no right? Have there been moments, where Colletti has feared that no matter what choice he makes. . . it will be the wrong one?"

Jon:

You act as if higher forces were at work here inexplicably cursing the innocent soul known as Flanders. But like all such "curses," this one has a perfectly rational explanation: the guys he signed were poor choices, and there were thousands of statistics at hand to demonstrate that fact before Ned signed either one.

Colletti has demonstrated over and over again that he's a poor judge of talent, that he signs players for far too long, and that he overpays. In addition to Piere, and Jones, he's done it twice now for Furcal, who is the fifth best shortstop in the National League (Rollins, Ramirez, Reyes, Tulowitzki are all better), yet he continues to get paid as if he were the best.

If Ned is truly feeling sorry for himself, there's a simple Costanza solution: do the opposite. Whenever he thinks he has a good idea, he should do the exact opposite. Had he signed neither Pierre nor Jones, the Dodgers would be looking at pretty much the same outfield as they have now, perhaps with Jason Repko playing more often in a dismal 2007 season. But he would have had $80 million to spend on Manny, CC Sabahtia, Johan Santana, or whoever.

For the record, didn't the Dodgers win the wild card in 2006? San Diego had the tiebreaker on them.

[Jon Weisman]

"You act as if higher forces were at work here inexplicably cursing the innocent soul known as Flanders."

No, I really don't - and now I really feel I've gone out of my way to emphasize that I don't believe that.

Do you never get in a frame of mind where, despite all rational logic, you think that sometimes you can't or won't do the right thing? Do you never doubt yourself?

If that's the case, I envy you.

[Jon Weisman]

And the last thing this post set out to be was an attempt to defend Ned's record.

Well, they can't all be winners.

New post up top.

[delias man]

AJones is NOT making this comeback. If you saw him play in the DR this winter on TV you can see that he was just as bad as you remember, against pretty mediocre to bad pitching.

[bokonon42]

Jon's being Arnesonian.

[bokonon42]

Drat, should have given a time stamp so it was clear that I meant the suspending reason intentionally to consider emotion, point. That's not a particularly well written summary, but I don't want to leave that sitting there unexplained.

[SaMo]

Ironically, irony is hard to convey on an emotionless blog.

[madmac]

D4P | February 09, 2009 at 09:41 AM

Maybe we could get Boras to his money where his mouth is. How about an incentive laden contract based on revenue. Specifically, ticket sales have to reach X and Manny specific merchandise brings in Y dollars. Perfect!

[Dodger Dude]

Hello,

I think you forget that AJ numbers were in freefall before we signed him to a two-year deal. Ned certainly did not sign him to a 211 contract. There is no curse there, but an oopsies, he forgot to read the "past performance does not necessarily indicate present abilities" tag on every player’s left ear.

As for Pierre, his numbers although slightly down are very similar to what his numbers were when he signed him, and when he plays every day are almost exactly the same. His arm didn't get any weaker when he came to Dodger stadium, and guess what, he didn't know how to bunt when he came here, and we still have not taught him.

And think Manny Ramirez, we know at some point his numbers will go down, but we know just a few months ago he is in his hitting prime while playing with this very team. If you play the odds, that's the way you are least likely to be "cursed".

I think Texas thinks they are playing roulette, and putting that half million on '23'. But in reality, they are putting that money in a hefty bag and throwing it on a curb. Now I can definitely tell you that Texas will be cursed next year, I really wish it were the Giants that signed him.

[El Lay Dave]

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