With Penelope Cruz as Manny …

It's strange, but I can't remember when I've had less interest at the outset of a Dodger offseason. That's partly the reason for my mini-vacation in recent days. It's not that I don't care what goes on with the team, but I've really reduced myself to a "wake me when something actually happens" state.

One thing I have wondered about, however, is the state of mind of the Dodgers and their fans should Manny Ramirez sign elsewhere. Having become addicted in a short time to his awesome display of talent, the mood around Dodger Stadium in his absence might be funereal. Might be downright angry. Might be hopeless.

I watched a movie this weekend, Elegy, which called to mind this dilemma. Elegy tries to offer a twist on a May-December affair between characters played by His Eminence Ben Kingsley and Penelope Cruz. One of the key points is that Kingsley's David is so enraptured by Cruz's Consuela, but also so convinced she will betray him, that he can't envision a future – with or without her. He's trapped. Who David was – his considerable talent and his thoughtful (if smug) personality – no longer matters, and when this Catch-22 inevitably leads to their breakup, David can't figure out where to go from there. (By the way, it's after this point that the movie's sad part comes.) Despite the talent in the Dodger clubhouse that Ramirez would leave behind, I suspect there will be a similar identity crisis if Manny suits up for another team in 2009.

Of course, an identity crisis pales in importance to a talent crisis, and it's how the Dodgers respond to the latter that matters most. One idea that has been floated by people like Andrew Grant at True Blue L.A. is that the Dodgers' best move in a post-Manny world might be to focus on pitching and defense. Even if the team loses Derek Lowe, the Dodgers have the resources to keep their pitching among the best in the National League. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has room for improvement on the defensive end, an improvement that could come more easily than trying to solve all the team's offensive problems. If you want to know whether better defense can make an impact, look no further than Tampa Bay. A Dodger team that smothers the opposition will contend, even if the core of the lineup is Russell Martin, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and James Loney.

Of course, I'm not against improving the offense – I believe in the importance of the home run as much as anyone. The defense-first approach is just something to consider. The question is, does Los Angeles have the stomach for it? Even though pitching and defense supposedly defined those glory Dodger teams of the 1960s that so many people look back upon so fondly, is 2009 destined to be a buzzkill without Ramirez?

A team pursuing this strategy needs the courage of its convictions. It needs to be assertive. It needs to sincerely and passionately make the case, because Spring Training offers too much time for others to fill in the blanks with their own assessment.

And then, the strategy needs to work. The 2003 Dodgers won 85 games, even though the second-best hitter on the team was arguably Jolbert Cabrera. The run prevention was that good. You can win that way. I don't know if the 2009 Dodgers can match the 2003 squad for keeping runs off the board, but I don't see any way that the '09 club, even without Ramirez, will be as offensively challenged as the '03ers.

Manny Ramirez would be great for the Dodgers in 2009. Frankly, the team could frontload a contract and, if it managed its finances properly, simply accept overpaying him in the later years of his deal as the cost of doing business. They could even pay him and trade him, just like the Red Sox did. But the Dodgers don't have to sign Ramirez to win. They just need to have an alternative that makes solid performance sense, that's convincing. No matter what happens, the Dodgers need credibility.

Penelope Cruz is the bee's knees, but you have to be prepared for life both with her or without her. Either way, you need a good reason to get out of bed in the morning.

Comments

[Eric Enders]

1.  Well, at least we still have a dead ringer for the young Ben Kingsley, Cory Wade.

[D4P]

2.  Pairing Ben Kingsley with Penelope Cruz is like pairing a great actor with a terrible one.

[Harold M Johnson]

3.  I'm actually really excited for this off-season because it seems to me that for the first time in awhile, the Dodgers' needs are less than the $30-$40m they have to spend.

[Harold M Johnson]

4.  2 Penelope Cruz is actually an amazing actress. If you've only seen her American work you're seeing her act in her 3rd best language.

[D4P]

5.  the Dodgers' needs are less than the $30-$40m they have to spend

2B or 3B
SS
LF
SP
SP

That's a lotta needs.

[Eric Enders]

6.  " the Dodgers' needs are less than the $30-$40m they have to spend."

But are they? The Dodgers' needs include:
1. Left fielder who can hit
2. Frontline starting pitcher
3. Three starting infielders

Even if we assume DeWitt helps fill #3, that's still a lot of important spots to fill.

[Eric Enders]

7.  Or, what he said.

[D4P]

8.  6
I originally wrote both 2B and 3B, but then remembered that DeWitt had "earned" a starting infield position.

[trainwreck]

9.  5
Why do we need two starting pitchers?

[Eric Enders]

10.  4 Does she speak Basque, or what?

[KG16]

11.  given the unbalanced schedule and the NL West's park factors, pitching and defense might not be a bad focus. According to ESPN's park factors, the NL West parks ranked as followed:

Stadium/Runs/HRs/Hits

Chase/2/10/3
Coors/3/3/1
AT&T/11/13/13
Dodger Stadium/29/24/30
Petco/30/30/29

I'd like to see Manny back, but not at any price. I'm only willing to go a few steps past the unreasonable line.

[Jon Weisman]

12.  2 - Are you making an analogy based on looks? Penelope Cruz is a wonderful actress.

[Harold M Johnson]

13.  The number of holes the Dodgers have is not equal to the amount of money they need to fill them.

[Eric Enders]

14.  Martin-Loney-Hu-Furcal-DeWitt-Kemp-Ethier would be a hell of a defensive team, regardless of who ended up playing left field.

[Harold M Johnson]

15.  10 One of her best films in the Italian Language "Don't Move" for which she won the Italian equiv of the Oscar.

[Eric Enders]

16.  It seems to me that if 2 were intended as a comment on Cruz's acting skills, it would have omitted the word "like."

[KG16]

17.  16 - i read it as an analogy.

[bigcpa]

18.  I think he's making fun of analogies.

[scareduck]

19.  13 - yes, exactly. And people haven't generally realized that the Yankees and Mets will both have similar sets of issues as the Dodgers, and will be bidding on similar players.

[D4P]

20.  A quick check on The Google shows that the only movies in which I've seen Ms. Cruz are "All the Pretty Horses" (which I thought was meh) and "Vanilla Sky" (which I don't remember at all).

[D4P]

21.  Why do we need two starting pitchers?

Because after Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda, Ned won't feel comfortable giving the remaining rotation spots to players currently on the roster. He'll pay for an expensive starter, plus a Loaiza-type (the latter of which we'll eventually pay to sit on our bench or someone else's after he's DFAed).

[Dave60]

22.  0 I reached the age of baseball awareness during the 1961 Dodger season. I love pitching and defense. Pair Kershaw as Koufax and Furcal as Wills with a league-average offense and I'll happily relive my childhood.

That's a great point that others will write your "story" during spring training if you haven't already written it yourself.

[Eric Enders]

23.  That assumes Penny's option will be bought out. I still think the right move is to pick up his option. This year's problems notwithstanding, $7.25 million for a guy who started the All-Star Game in 2006 and led the league in wins in 2007 is an acceptable risk.

I think between Penny and McDonald we have the #4 starter covered.

[cargill06]

24.  21 I think Joe is pretty high on J Mac.

[Jon Weisman]

25.  Fun story:

http://harvardmagazine.com/2000/11/the-saga-of-a-great-head.html

[Indiana Jon]

26.  4 I don't even have to turn the sound on and hear the language to know that Penelope Cruz is amazing. Oh, you said amazing actress. Well I'm less qualified to judge that I guess.

[bhsportsguy]

27.  Here's my question, the Dodgers gave up the lowest amount of runs in the NL and the second lowest in baseball. They gave up almost 1/2 a run less than they did in 2007 and even better than when compared to 2006.

The last time they gave up fewer runs was in 2003.

I do think that getting better in these categories is a good idea, I don't know how much better you can get.

Does anyone think that the Dodgers can do what Tampa Bay and Philadelphia did this year? Tampa Bay gave up 273 less runs than they did in 2007 and Philadelphia gave up 141 runs less. (Tampa Bay scored 8 runs less this year while Philadelphia scored 95 runs less)

[franklin]

28.  5 ,6
Higher ticket prices and a little playoff payoff could allow $50M* available for FAs in 2009. With that budget, seems possible to mix and match the following combos to fulfill the three needs...
1. LF power: Manny/Dunn/Burrell
2. SP: CC/Lowe/Penny/??
3. middle infielder, leadoff: Hudson/Furcal and use internal options to fill SS or 2nd.

*also assumes McCourt will look at the $50M as a real possibility since the ~$30M sinkhole to Jones/Schmidt ends the following year (although I believe there would still be bonus $$ to be paid)

[cargill06]

29.  The Dodgers used to play "Low" whenever Derek Lowe pitched. Next year, "Return of the Mack" when ever James McDonald pitches.

[Xeifrank]

30.  5 out of the last 7 blog entries Jon has made have TV/Movie related analogies or entry headlines. Jon is on quite a roll. In all fairness, I hope Jon is putting baseball and sports related analogies and headlines in his Variety articles. :)

For example his review headline of the latest James Bond movie could read something like, "Not Much VORP in New Bond Flick!". Let's give those entertainment minded folk a taste of their own medicine.
vr, Xei

[Eric Stephen]

31.  30
Perhaps a more palatable headline would be "Quantum Solace a Home Run" or "HSM3, Max Payne Bury Bond's Latest at Box Office."

[cargill06]

32.  I agree completely with Jon, as I said in a previous post all I would do is sign, CC, Furcal and lock up Kershaw, Billingsley, Kemp, Martin and Ethier.

That would be fantastic and I would be very happy, would the payroll go up or down with that?

[Jon Weisman]

33.  30 - Hmm, that does seem a bit much, even for me. I guess it's just that time of year.

[NoHoDodger]

34.  Its the off-season for Dodger Fans, so I don't want to think too much about 2009, yet.

But it's never tiring talking about Penelope. If you want to see a young Penelope, try to find Belle Epoche, Abre Los Ojos (the original version of Vanilla Sky), or Jamon Jamon.

I'm pretty sure that you get to see skin in all three. Notwithstanding, she has the most voluptuous face out there.

[Eric Stephen]

35.  If Hamels and the Phils end it tonight, the Dodgers have until next Monday to exercise or decline Penny's 2009 option.

They would have until Thursday, November 6 to decide on Gary Bennett's option ($50k buyout or $900k).

[ToyCannon]

36.  20
Small sample size. As Harold said check out her Spanish movies like Volver or Todo sobre mi madre. Probably having a great director helps.

[ToyCannon]

37.  0
I agree, I've said all along I'd like CC more then Manny not that I'm holding out hope for such a thing.

[underdog]

38.  I highly recommend Penelope Cruz in All About My Mother, Volver and (the very underrated) Live Flesh. All Pedro Almodovar films. I'm sure Ben Kingsley was just fine acting against her - both talent-wise and, er, looks-wise.

Re Elegy: File it with a thousand others under "Book is better than the movie."

[underdog]

39.  It's starting to sound more and more possible that CC ends up re-signing with the Brewers, though I'll believe it when I see it.

I still think he ends up either in California, or in NY.

[Eric Enders]

40.  So I finally got around to watching the premiere of Life on Mars. I really wanted to like it, but boy was it painful. I ended up turning it off after 45 minutes.

[underdog]

41.  Steve Henson has an amusing piece up on Yahoo:

"For Philly fans, winning is torture"
http://tinyurl.com/6fzr74

>>In spite of the good vibrations, the inner Philadelphian – the one who cheered when Michael Irvin got carted off the football field with a neck injury – is always aching to come out in any form. Phillies fans this October are like pit bulls wagging their tails, seemingly rehabilitated until one false move turns them savage.<<

Makes me root even harder for them to lose, but maybe winning will cure them of all the evil. Hard to imagine...

[KG16]

42.  35 - part of me would love to see the reaction around here if Bennett's option were picked up. but i can be a pretty twisted person sometimes, so we'll write that desire off to that tendency.

[Eric Stephen]

43.  27
I do think that getting better in these categories is a good idea, I don't know how much better you can get.

Part of it is getting better, part of it is replacing parts to tread water. The league-wide downward scoring trend contributed to a 79-run improvement in run prevention. The ERA+ in 2007 was 109, and was 115 in 2008 (this updated number isn't yet on the B-R league page), so the pitching gap wasn't too wide.

In 2007, the Dodgers gave up 727 runs, good enough for 4th in the NL. Yet 59 of their starts came from guys with a collective 5.86 ERA (~78 ERA+).

In 2008, the Dodgers gave up 648 runs, 1st in the NL. Yet they still had 29 starts from guys with a collective 5.77 ERA (~79 ERA+).

This year, Billingsley's improvement and simply playing a full season contributed greatly to the team's improvement. Hopefully Kershaw takes that mantle this season.

Penny, or Penny's replacement, figures to be better in 2009 than Penny in 2008.

Add in the CC > Lowe factor, and there's still plenty of room for improvement.

[underdog]

44.  If they don't re-sign Gary Bennett, who will we have to blame for any Dodger-related woes (and by extension, the world's)?

[KG16]

45.  41 - I reject the pit bulls are bad dogs line. beyond that, it's probably good for the psyche of a city to win a title every so often, just as it is good for a city to lose one every so often. Philly would probably be better off with the Eagles winning rather than the Phillies, but there's some poetic justice to the first team to 10,000 losses winning the world series the next year.

[Eric Enders]

46.  We can still blame Gary Bennett. He doesn't have to be around.

Sort of like how a pitcher gets charged with runs that score after he's already in the shower.

[MC Safety]

47.  32 Glad to see you've come around on CC.

[Eric Enders]

48.  The only Philly team I don't find obnoxious is the Flyers and that's probably because I don't know enough about hockey to find them obnoxious.

[fanerman]

49.  Gary Bennett has signed a little-known $0, one-year "rolling" contract extension, that gives the Dodgers and their fans the ability to keep him as their "designated scapegoat," even if Bennett decides to play for another team.

[Eric Stephen]

50.  49
The Scapegoaters Association is not going to like that contract. Luckily, they have no shortage of people to blame.

[Eric Enders]

51.  49 Tom Niedenfuer breathes a sigh of relief. Now he can quietly live his life outside the spotlight and concentrate on his family's reality tv show.

[LogikReader]

52.  Penelope Cruz is a good reason to get out of bed in the morning.

[runs and ducks]

[Eric Enders]

53.  Or, you know, into.

[Eric Stephen]

54.  Earlier today I saw an article from last week about "original Ray" Miguel Cairo buying two tickets to Game 1 in Tampa.

http://tinyurl.com/59368e

The article mentions that Cairo and Randy Winn are the only two active original Rays, since they were on the first 40-man roster in club history. Since they used that criteria, our man JJJ got the shaft. Johnson (first pitched for TB on 4/23/98) is the other 1998 Devil Ray still active in the bigs.

[bhsportsguy]

55.  One thing that I noticed in looking at 2008 pitching stats, Tampa Bay's had 5 pitchers with 27 or more starts for a total of 153 starts.

That is a stat that will be hard to repeat.

[bhsportsguy]

56.  One thing that I noticed in looking at 2008 pitching stats, Tampa Bay had 5 pitchers with 27 or more starts for a total of 153 starts.

That is a stat that will be hard to repeat.

[Eric Enders]

57.  If Miguel Cairo bought tickets to a game in Tampa then he was probably surprised when nobody showed up. (Sorry, pet peeve of mine.)

In 1995 the Dodgers' double-play combo at Class AA was Miguel Cairo and Wilton Guerrero. Who would have thought Cairo would end up having by far the longer career?

[Eric Stephen]

58.  57
I purposely corrected myself in the second paragraph to avoid the lonely "Tampa". I completely missed the first error. D'oh!

[Jon Weisman]

59.  56 - And yet the comment was so easy to repeat :)

[Eric Stephen]

60.  55
Only the 1922-1923 Yankees have pulled off the five 27+ start group in back-to-back years.

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/fBfZ

[Eric Stephen]

61.  56
Only the 1922-1923 Yankees have pulled off the five 27+ start group in back-to-back years.

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/fBfZ

[Jon Weisman]

62.  60-61 - Back-to-back indeed! You guys are on today :)

[Eric Enders]

63.  We'll need a ruling from the committee on whether 60-61 qualifies as a true double post.

[Eric Stephen]

64.  63
Exhibit A: I changed the links.

[Jacob Burch]

65.  I grew saddened that my iambic trimeter poem I did in three seconds got lost in the shuffle. But this solid commenting has brightened my mood.

I've decided to go forward with the essay/semi blog project, hopefully domain'd "amillionbutterflies.com," but now I'm starting to think I should wait until Spring Training. Decisions, Decisions.

[Jon Weisman]

66.  62 - Not a true double-post, but it still works for my amusement.

[bferb]

67.  If we could somehow sign CC and deal for Holliday, I would be pretty excited and we'd still have plenty of money to fill out or IF. Problem is I'm sure we'd have to give up McDonald just for starters in a Holliday trade. What do you all think?

[Eric Stephen]

68.  Incidentally, the 1922 Yankees lost the World Series in 5 games (4-0-1), and came back to beat the same team (Giants) the next year 4 games to 2.

Both teams had an outfielder named Whitey Witt, whose name delights me.

[Eric Enders]

69.  67 I think a Holliday trade probably starts with Kemp and McDonald.

[bferb]

70.  69 Kemp AND McDonald would be a little steep for one year of Holliday. Kemp is a solid major leaguer at this point, and although we are all still waiting for the upside, its not like he's just an unproven minor league prospect we are packaging.

[Eric Enders]

71.  70 I agree. I wouldn't do it. But I'm guessing that package is at the low end of what the Rockies would be asking for.

[Eric Enders]

72.  McDonald with the Rockies would be sort of scary for both parties anyway. Extreme flyball pitcher.

[Eric Stephen]

73.  70
For a half season of Teixeira, the Angels gave up a starter at the same position (Kotchman) and their #6 prospect (Marek; according to BA).

McDonald was rated #7 in the Dodger organization, but would be higher now.

A Kemp-McDonald is not that far fetched (and probably isn't enough).

[bferb]

74.  72 Good point. I would like to see Holliday in Dodger blue, but I can't really see what package we could send. Rockies number one request is young starters.

[bhsportsguy]

75.  62 I remove ('s) from Bay in the second post.

[Bob Hendley]

76.  0 - Very minor point, and one that begins with Mr. Roth, but my wife, Consuelo, would never forgive me if I didn't say something. I don't believe that the name Consuela actually exists as a Spanish given name, outside of books and scripts written in English.

[bferb]

77.  73 Despite BA's ranking, the Angels weren't high on Marek, and turned him into a reliever prior to last year. He never had a season comparable to McDonald.

Kemp's OPS+ was 10 - 15 pts higher than Kotchman every year and Kemp plays a much more valuable position, although Kotchman was major league ready.

If the Rockies expectations are that high, no way a trade gets done.

[Marty]

78.  Mike Singletary is my new hero. He has made the NFL interesting again.

[Eric Enders]

79.  For another perspective, the most recent "Bad Altitude" post deals with the issue of a Holliday trade.

[D4P]

80.  The thing that often got overlooked about Mike Singletary was the intensity of his eyes when he was waiting for the ball to be snapped.

[Tripon]

81.  Scott Boras is the agent of too many players. I wonder how many he actually has personally met. I bet he doesn't even know what Tony Aberu looks like!

[Eric Enders]

82.  Boras lives in L.A. and goes to a lot of Dodgers games, so he's probably seen Abreu play a lot. I wouldn't be surprised if he has other clients he's never met, though.

[Gen3Blue]

83.  As I think the path to the play-offs involves keeping an economical core together, while winning short series involve great pitching, I am tempted to keep MacDonald in case he evolves into a good starter. Therefore I would rather trade Kemp and Loney for Holiday rather than lose Mac. But of course I would rather not.

[ToyCannon]

84.  82
Has any Dodger fan seen Tony Abreu play alot?

[ToyCannon]

85.  Lakers open tomorrow against the young Trailblazers. Finally a chance to see what all the fuss is about.

[Bob Hendley]

86.  41 - Not to forget the Eagles-Skins Body Bag Night.

[Eric Stephen]

87.  85
I'm looking forward to seeing Portland play. Fernandez/Oden could make them something special, and soon.

[JoeyP]

88.  Ty Willingham out at Washington.

At what point does he stop getting head coaching jobs?

[KG16]

89.  I'd rather have Halladay than Holliday.

[Dodgers49]

90.  Dodgers Mailbag:

When will the Dodgers decide if they are going to sign Manny Ramirez?

In last week's mailbag you said the club hasn't given up on Jason Schmidt. Why not?

If a player needs three years of MLB service to be eligible for salary arbitration, why are Russell Martin and Andre Ethier eligible already?

How will the fact that Dodgers assistant general manager Kim Ng did not get the Seattle general manager's job impact the Dodgers?

Is Tony Abreu healthy?

http://tinyurl.com/645ogm

[Jon Weisman]

91.  88 - Before he got to Washington, he was 65-52-1 and took Stanford to its only Rose Bowl in the past 30+ years. It's not as if he didn't earn the jobs he got.

He might be done as a head coach now, but your implication that he hasn't deserved the jobs he has gotten is off base.

[Jon Weisman]

92.  Lonnie White the latest departure from the Times sports department:

http://www.laobserved.com/archive/2008/10/list_of_la_times_departur.php

[Eric Enders]

93.  90 The first graf of Gurnick's answer to the Ramirez question is unbelievably disingenuous. He's already preemptively making excuses on behalf of McCourt.

[Eric Enders]

94.  Way to scare the heck out of me, Jon. I momentarily misread those first six words as "Logan White the latest departure from..."

[bhsportsguy]

95.  Per the Philadelphia Inquirer, Ruben Amaro will be named the next GM of the Phillies 24-48 hours after the end of the World Series.

[bhsportsguy]

96.  92 I met Lonnie White once, same day I met Bill Plaschke, at the LA Times Book Festival at UCLA.

[Bob Timmermann]

97.  95
Tell Ruben to do some laundry. The wait may be a while.

[Eric Enders]

98.  Two ex-Stanford players are GMs now, Amaro and Kenny Williams, with A.J. Hinch waiting in the wings. Am I missing anyone?

[Brent Knapp]

99.  The following is a question re: TV technology. I'm in the market for a TV (looking at 52" LCDs) and think I'm settling for the SAMSUNG LN52A550. It has everything I want except it is not 120 hz. From my research it is roughly $300-500 extra for that and I don't think it's worth it. Anyone here have any opinions on that matter? Also, I have only looked at LCD's. Should I be looking at plasmas too?

[CajunDodger]

100.  99
Not an expert on TVs, but we got Samsung 42" with the 120 hz refresh rate and it is one of the most satisfying things I have ever bought. My wife and I looked at this particular model in three stores and the picture looked better than anything else at all three (and it was $500 less than one of the Somy Bravias that we looked at).

I like an LCD over Plasma. Slightly less heat, deeper blacks, and a wider viewing angle (but only slightly).