Turnaround of All Turnarounds: Willy Aybar

Of all the remarkable stories that make up the remarkable Tampa Bay Rays, is there any more remarkable than that of Willy Aybar?

The ex-Dodger third baseman, who on-based .448 in 26 games in 2005 and .364 in 79 games in 2006 (with Los Angeles and, after the Dodgers traded him, Atlanta), was beset by personal and physical problems in 2007 and missed the entire season. After spending three months rehabbing from substance abuse, Aybar broke the hamate bone in his right hand.

At one point, even his closest supporters could not reach him. I think many considered his career to be over. But not everyone. This past January, Tampa Bay took a chance on Aybar. It wasn't as if the Rays picked him up out of the scrap pile – they traded for him.

Tampa Bay wasn't immediately rewarded. In February – only eight months ago - Aybar was arrested in the Dominican Republic on domestic violence charges and faced three months in jail. The charges were dropped days later, not that that was entirely reassuring.

At the ballpark, at least, Aybar recovered. As a part-time player, he wasn't sensational, but he was solid, OPSing .737. But when Rays starting third baseman Evan Longoria went down with an injury in August, Aybar started 30 consecutive games and OPSed .898. And in the 2008 postseason, Aybar has been downright spectacular, posting a .988 OPS (11 for 30, two doubles, two homers). He went 4 for 5 in the Rays' Game 4 victory in the American League Championship Series, and in Sunday's pennant-deciding Game 7, he doubled, homered and scored two runs in a 3-1 win.

The Willy Aybar story, on and off the field, is far from over. Perhaps, with the Rays in the World Series, it will get the up-close-and-personal treatment. Whatever happens, I hope that his recovery on all fronts continues.

* * *

Here is an excerpt of my reaction to the Dodgers' trade of Aybar (from July 29, 2006). Though Aybar was traded for Wilson Betemit, my column focused on the differences between Aybar and the infielder the Dodgers hung onto, Cesar Izturis:

... I think about how Aybar was benched so that Cesar Izturis could play. Izturis is without a doubt the more spectacular fielder. But in many games, Aybar would make all the plays at third base that Izturis would make. And yes, in a few games, Aybar would make more plays than Izturis, because Izturis isn't perfect.

In the end, Izturis comes out ahead. But when you have the reptuation of being a better fielder, people tend to focus on the plays you make and forgive the plays you don't. For Aybar, it was the opposite. The differences get blown out of proportion. ...

Meanwhile, at his worst, Aybar hit home runs more often than Izturis, who celebrates them like birthdays. In fact, there isn't a single aspect of using the bat in which Aybar, at age 23, isn't already superior to the 26-year-old Izturis - and that factors in Aybar's summer slump. You don't know offensive slumps until you've seen Izturis.

Again, I get what Friday's trade was about. It was an attempt to balance prayers for 2006 with hopes for the future. I'm not complaining about that.

But another underlying truth about the trade - unless other moves are made - is that it was a final exchange of Aybar for Izturis. Given that Izturis was contributing almost nothing toward the team's current hopes, and that he realistically has no future with the Dodgers - as soon as Jeff Kent returns, Izturis is supposed to go to the bench if he hasn't already been traded - this is the trade that's bugging me.

And I don't even have the raging dislike for Izturis that some others have. I love his glove, and I'm dispassionately bored by his bat. He is who he is. A great-fielding No. 8 hitter. Just like the great-fielding 22-year-old the Dodgers have at AA Jacksonville, Chin-Lung Hu.

I don't know if Atlanta would have taken Izturis instead of Aybar, though it does appear that their primary goal was Baez and so the second player in the trade could have been either infielder. I also don't know if Izturis will yield a bigger prize in a few days or months. All I can say is that as I write this, I'd rather Aybar were still in the Dodger organization, for all his flaws, even if he were at AAA, than Izturis.

Of course, Izturis himself would soon be traded in the first Greg Maddux deal ... the same day as the arrival of Julio Lugo ... from Tampa Bay.

Comments

[LogikReader]

1.  Just one great story among many great stories of the Tampa Bay Rays. These guys could be the subject of a great movie. So many good plot lines.

None of which, unfortunately, will be fully appreciated by the general public.

[kinbote]

2.  An anagram for Willy Aybar is Bay Ray Will.

[Louis in SF]

3.  When I was watching the game last night I kept on thinking about the same thing...what a recovery. Always liked him when he was with the Dodgers, I only hope that we see a similar turnaround from Tony Abreu in 2009.

[PalmdaleSteve1]

4.  1 True and a ice story and worthy of highlights, but please don't let the folks from NBC who did the Olympics know about the story.

Besides, baseball don't do human interest stories unless the player is StrayRod and some recent divorced grandma looking singer who speaks with a fake English accent.

[Eric Stephen]

5.  1
The Rays had their movie moment with "The Rookie." :)

[kinbote]

6.  I can never remember whom Willy Aybar's batting stance reminds me of. Crouched over, front leg back, wide open stance?

[Eric Stephen]

7.  6
Kind of a cross between Rod Carew and Tony Batista?

[kinbote]

8.  7 That works. I never thought I'd see those two names used in combination!

[rbs10025]

9.  6 Larry Craig?

0 When did OPS and on-base become verbs? Oy.

[Bob Timmermann]

10.  9
When Jon wants to create a new verb, don't get in his way.

[Marty]

11.  Aybar looks a bit heavier now too, which makes sense if he's kicked a substance abuse jag.

[Disabled List]

13.  It's gonna be quite the riot watching Willy Aybar play in the World Series, while at the same time wondering who's going to play third base for us next year.

It'll be almost as fun as watching Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino play in the World Series, while wondering what we're gonna do with the $26 million pair of useless centerfielders on our roster.

[Jon Weisman]

12.  9 - I actually did a post on this several years ago, though I can't find it in the archives. Basically, I wrote that one of the reasons I think OPS and OBP have had trouble catching on in the mainstream is because they lacked a convenient verb form like "batting." I think it's a needed evolution.

[blue22]

14.  6 - Whenever I see anyone with an open stance, I think Jerome Walton.

Wow, it was really 2005 when Aybar had that awesome 2nd half? Time is flying...

[superbas]

15.  3 yea i can't wait to root for tony abreu on another team...like pitts, cleveland, tampa. from past experience the current front office would rather hold onto a berroa more than an abreu.

[Bob Timmermann]

16.  Willy Aybar doesn't play in the field too much now for Tampa Bay aside from first. He did fill in at second and third when Iwamura was suspended and Longoria was injured.

[regfairfield]

17.  Abreu still has an option (unless we never actually optioned him to AAA this year), so there's zero reason to get rid of him, especially when he's rehabbing. If he gets hurt again this year though, he's gone.

[LoneStar7]

18.  is tony still rehabbing, or is he gonna playing winter ball

[Bluebleeder87]

19.  Nice story Jon.

6 7 talking about that, I think Longoria's swing is very EYE CATCHING, in many ways (not all but in many ways) it reminds me of Piazza's swing, except Longoria pulls the ball a lot better than Piazza did when he first came up...

[bhsportsguy]

20.  17 Abreu still has 2 options left.

[kinbote]

21.  19 I like Upton's swing: quick, compact, powerful. {drool}

[Brent is a Dodger Fan]

22.  Good for Aybar, but I don't think he'd be as lucky if he were were still a Dodger. LaRoche would have been ahead of him, and perhaps he would have forestalled DeWitt.

The key lesson here is that a change of team sometimes really makes a difference. Tampa Bay is less likely to be as organizationally burdened by Aybar's past mistakes than Atlanta, and Aybar is less likely to transfer any ill will that may have existed in Atlanta to Tampa Bay.

[ToyCannon]

23.  16
Only because they have those positions filled quite capably. He can still play 3rd okay. With the added weight I have no idea if he can still play 2nd. Interesting how he and Boom Boom were basically 1st baseman by the time the season ended based on playing time. I don't think to many of us pictured them as 1st baseman in 2008 when they were traded for each other two years ago.

Home run rates for both of them are quite different from their AAA days.

[Kevin Lewis]

24.  From last thread re: Softball game:

159. Kevin Lewis
154

Shooting for the Rose Bowl and moving to the Eagle Rock Rec center if the fields are taken.

The Rose Bowl fields are almost always free on Sunday afternoons, except for when the CalTech Frisbee game shows up, and they try to take up the entire outfield for both fields.

[ToyCannon]

25.  Last November I wanted to replace Kent with Abreu. A year later I see no reason to change my mind since we now have a possible in-house replacement in DeJesus if Abreu can't stay healthy.

To bad about Ellis staying with the A's. I guess being comfortable was more important then winning. That contract was doable for us.

[ToyCannon]

26.  24
Send me an evite.
molokai
at
yahoo

I haven't played in a few years, good time to break out the gloves and bats.

[bhsportsguy]

27.  This year's World Series will produce the 8th different champion this decade, only the 1980's, where 9 different teams won a World Series trophy, is higher.

The 1970's had 3 teams that won consectutive World Series in a span of seven seasons.

In the last 30 seasons, only two teams, the 92-93 Blue Jays and the 98-00 Yankees have won consectutive titles.

All of this may not mean anything but I thought it was interesting.

[LogikReader]

28.  27

I tend to consider decades like that a "golden age" for baseball.

In the 90s, back when I was in school, I used to lament the dominance of the Yanks and Braves. I would be like "Why can't it be like ten years ago, when a different team won the World Series every year?"

I love what we have now much more! Note how the Dodgers were the only team to win more than one championship in the 80s.

[LogikReader]

29.  I'll never forget how the NBA was for a good 12 years. From 1987 to 2000, every championship came in 2s or 3s.

Lakers
Lakers
Pistons
Pistons
Bulls
Bulls
Bulls
Rockets
Rockets
Bulls
Bulls
Bulls

[Jon Weisman]

30.  29 - Preceded by hundreds of articles that declared repeating in the NBA impossible.

[JJ42]

31.  24 Sunday softball? Count me in: jjlacs at hotmail dot com

[Ken Noe]

32.  I'll repeat what I said mid-summer: Aybar could be our answer at third...I wonder what Tampa would want.

[cargill06]

33.  32 Jeez, if Aybar is the answer I guess I don't want to know the question.

[kinbote]

34.  27 That reminds me of the Bloom County line (it was mocking the media and how they create stories out of thin air): "Next--All this Nothing. Is it Something?"

[bhsportsguy]

35.  29 Only 8 different teams have won NBA titles since the 1979-1980 season.

Lakers - 8
Bulls - 6
Celtics - 4
Spurs - 4
Pistons - 3
Rockets - 2
76ers - 1
Heat - 1

[ucladodger]

36.  If only 3 years ago someone would have told us that Edwin Jackson, Dioner Navarro, and Willy Aybar would be playing for the same team in the World Series, we'd all have been pretty darn ecstatic. Funny how things work.

[KG16]

37.  13 - there are no promises that each of those guys (along with Navarro and Jackson) would have become the players that they are, had they stayed with the Dodgers. A to B to C to D, if you remove C from the time line, there's no promise of getting from B to D. They are the players they are today because they moved on, not in spite of moving on.

[Ken Noe]

38.  33 Who's playing 3B for the Dodgers other than Joe Crede or some other overpaid veteran stiff?

[Icaros]

39.  37

So if the Dodgers had kept Roberto Clemente in the system you don't think he'd have been the same player?

[Eric Stephen]

40.  37
For me, the angst isn't from wishing those players were still Dodgers; I'm happy for their success now, and agree somewhat that their opportunity was better found in TB.

My animosity toward their departure was the awfulness received in return. Aybar was the only one of the castoffs (to Atlanta at the time) for which the Dodgers received anything remotely useful Betemit, and now Proctor).

[bhsportsguy]

41.  38 Per the last LA Times story on the Dodgers, Blake DeWitt is not going to work on his second base comfort level this winter, the implication is that both he and the Dodgers see's him as the 2009 3B.

[El Lay Dave]

42.  13 $27.1 million. Interestingly, 2009 is the highest-paid year in each man's contract, according to the "Cot's Baseball Contracts" link on the sidebar.

[cargill06]

43.  38 Willy Aybar + what we trade < Blake DeWitt

Probably,

Willy Aybar < Blake DeWitt

[ToyCannon]

44.  Has any Dodger pitched a no - hitter since Jon instituted Rule 9? I wanted to ask this question when no one is pitching so as not to break the rule.

Who will hit the most home runs in the World Series? A plethora of candidates.
Upton, Longoria, Floyd, Pena, Howard, Utely, Burrel?

[Ken Noe]

45.  41 I expected as much but I still think long-term his future should be at second.

[bhsportsguy]

46.  45 I think it reflects their (the Dodgers) thinking all along. DeWitt was only plugged in at second because Kent got hurt.

[cargill06]

47.  45 DeWitt's value will probably never be on offense. It's a very real possibility he can be an above average to elite defensive 3B, why take him away from his strength?

[KG16]

48.  39 - maybe, maybe not. My point is more that you can't really speculate as to what would have happened, you can only analyze what did happen.

Example: what happens if Ruth is never sold to the Yankees? Does he remain a pitcher? Do the Red Sox win a slew of titles while the Yankees never break through? We simply can't say because we don't know.

[ToyCannon]

49.  39
I had the same line written but then I thought he might have a point. Think about it. If Navarro stays, he's a backup for the last two years. Werth or Victorino may never have been given the opportunity to be more then spare outfielders. E Jackson would have languished in the bullpen or lost when he ran out of options. Aybar is likely the only one who would have been given the opportunity to play 3rd base full time but that regime had soured on his defense.

[Tripon]

50.  43 We traded a Willie Aybar with problems to the Braves.

I'd like to think that a DeWitt > Willie Aybar with an alcoholic addiction. But Aybar might one of those players who can still perform despite being on some substance. Like say... David Wells. But the world may never know of Aybar's performance under alcohol.

[Tripon]

51.  45 I rather leave 2nd base open for DeJesus, or Hu. Especially if we resign Furcal.

[ToyCannon]

53.  Manny to the Giants with that pitching would be an interesting proposition.

[cargill06]

52.  51 I'm with you on that.

[Eric Stephen]

54.  50
Did Aybar have problems as a Dodger? I thought the stuff came about when he was in Atlanta, but I could be wrong.

[Tripon]

55.  Where would that leave Freedy Lewis, or Nate Schierholtz? Not to mention Wynn, Rowand, or Roberts. Manny to the Giants might make sense until you realize that they have an even bigger outfield jam than the Dodgers had in '08.

[ToyCannon]

56.  Would a team of
Loney
Abreu/DeJesus
Furcal
DeWitt
Martin
Ethier
Jones
Kemp
with a rotation of
Billingsley
Kuroda
Kershaw
Penny
McDonald/Schmidt

invoke dispair or hope around here?

[Eric Stephen]

57.  44
The only "no-hitter"* for or against the Dodgers since the advent of Rule 9 was a game the Dodgers won!

*I'm fully aware this is not classified as a real no-hitter.

[Tripon]

58.  54 I don't remember anything public, but I have to think the Dodgers knew things about Aybar that the rest of the world didn't. Otherwise, why trade Aybar for Benimit straight up?

[ToyCannon]

60.  54
It surfaced with the Braves but aren't most addictions something that was going on long term?

[D4P]

59.  I find it weird that DeWitt has essentially earned himself a spot in the starting lineup.

[Ken Noe]

61.  47 51 If DeJesus is ready to go at 2B this spring, marvelous. I'll be quite content with him at second and Solution at third. But isn't it more likely that Ned is going to sign some PVL at one of those positions? I'd rather go cheap and spend the money on Manny or CC; hence my Aybar love. If DeJesus ends up a regular after all, then great.

[ToyCannon]

62.  59
Yeah, why should the Dodgers reward a guy who might have saved their season by playing 2nd base when they had no other options when Kent went down other then black hole one and black hole two.

[Eric Stephen]

63.  56
Absolutely crushing.

I am prepared to be mentally crushed if the Dodgers don't sign at least one of CC or Manny. If the Dodgers don't sign a single starting player as a FA this offseason (as your lineup implies), that would be crushing and would fuel further speculation of McCourt's cash problems. That said, I don't want to spend for spending's sake, but it would hurt a lot.

[ToyCannon]

64.  58
It was Baez/Aybar for Betemit.

[Harold M Johnson]

65.  56 I would be happy with going to the stadium and watching that team, but I wouldn't expect them to go deep into the playoffs. So much of that team depends on Furcal being healthy and productive and, quite simply, great.

[Eric Stephen]

66.  58
why trade Aybar for Benimit straight up?

To get rid of Baez?

[ToyCannon]

67.  63
Doesn't signing Furcal count?

[Tripon]

68.  Cards bought out Mulder's option for $1.5 million. Non-roster invitee?

[Eric Stephen]

69.  56 ,63
I somehow glossed over Furcal being re-signed in your proposal. I change my opinion from crushed to hopeful despair. :)

[Eric Stephen]

70.  68
Why not? We already have Scully.

[Jon Weisman]

71.  44 - Well, Rule 9 existed long before Dodger Thoughts. So in that sense, yes.

[ToyCannon]

72.  71
Have the Dodgers had a no hitter since you started Dodger Thoughts?

[D4P]

73.  62
DeWitt OPSed .728. Maybe that was "better than expected", but "better than expected" does not necessarily equal "good".

By objective standards, his offense was poor. He is now being given the starting job at third base. I find that weird.

And what does "rewarding" him have to do with it? Why shouldn't "building the best team" be the top priority?

[ToyCannon]

74.  69
Hopeful Despair, welcome to my Clipper World:)

[D4P]

75.  Will DeWitt's offense improve? Maybe.

But I don't understand that rationale that leads someone to assume that his offense will inevitably improve enough to be a starting third baseman.

[ToyCannon]

76.  73
Given the free agents available at 3rd base, I would take Blake DeWitt over all of them. You can focus on his season OPS, I will focus on how he ended the season.

[wronghanded]

77.  73 What would you like to see the Dodgers do? Sign Blake and keep Dewitt/DeJesus at 2nd?

[Harold M Johnson]

78.  Haha, 56 just realized that somehow my addled brain thought that Manny was in your proposed team of next year! A Dodger team without a legit slugger is a team that will frustrate fans, just like this team did pre-Manny. You never know if someone like Kemp might finally have a breakout season, or if Loney and Martin will take major steps forward, but without a legit hitting star... I think the team would be very frustrating.

[Harold M Johnson]

79.  76 I agree, the free agent crop is not good and I think everyone needs to see the writing on the wall that big bucks are not going to be spent in the off-season, especially when something like half of the payroll already committed for next year is on Schmidt, Jones, and Pierre.

[Brian Y]

80.  76. And by that I'm guessing you mean the regular season. His dreadful NLCS is something I'm sure he even wants to forget.

[ToyCannon]

81.  75
You love OBP, I'm surprised you aren't more impressed with how he managed to increase his OBP to over 400 the 2nd time around the league. This is not BABIP inspired OPS, but plate discipline inspired.

[Tripon]

82.  73 Because it's building the best team with salary implications? If you're going to resign Manny, or C.C., that takes a huge chunk of your budget, you're going to have to plug holes somewhere. And the free agent market for 3rd baseman are thin enough, where Casey Blake and Joe Crede are likely number and two for 3rd baseman. We seen what Blake can do on a personal level, and Crede is a fragile player. Not exactly the kind of player you want to give big money for.

And as for giving a job to DeWitt, I don't think it'll kill the Dodgers to have some stability at 3rd. Yeah, he's not the greatest option, but he might be the best best option. I would like to see an open competition between DeWitt, and Aberu at 3rd next year if those are the in house options.

[ToyCannon]

83.  80
As does everyone not named Manny or Loney.

[Tripon]

84.  83 James McDonald had a good NLCS.

[Brian Y]

85.  79. I look at is and see that we are losing about $35M after next season when Andruw and Schmidt are gone. We can afford both CC and Manny if we wanted since all we would have to do is rearrange their contracts so the 1st year would be less and compliment that with a signing bonus distributed over the contract.

I don't think that both of them are feasible as we have other needs as well that need to be explored such as SS,2B,3B, bullpen, bench, etc.

[CodyS]

86.  Of Kemp, Martin, Ethier, Loney only Ethier did better this year than last year. Young players can be expected to get better on average but there is a big enough variation that for any particular player for any particular year, there is a very high chance he will not be better at all next year.

[D4P]

87.  Would anyone really argue that what Blake DeWitt has done thus far is obviously and unambiguously enough to deserve a starting third baseman job in the major leagues?

I just don't see it. I think he's being given the job because of a lack of alternatives and because he makes Management feel good in a touchy-feely kinda way.

[Jon Weisman]

88.  72 - No, the last was Nomo's in Colorado.

[Brian Y]

89.  83. Exactly, but you specifically mentioned that you wanted to focus " how he ended the season" so I was just checking to make sure you did not mean the NLCS since that is technically how he finished this season.

I have a lot of hope for DeWitt but I really prefer him at 2B since I think we need power at 3B and LF. Loney and Ethier are not power hitters and they man the other corners.

[Marty]

90.  Yossarian: That's some rule, that Rule 9
Doc Daneeka: It's the best there is.

[superbas]

91.  56 can we get a hr guy in there somewhere? it's conceivable either/kemp/jones could hit 25hrs next year but that's no sure thing. it was cool seeing manny up at the plate and knowing good things will happen...i don't wanna go back to the base-to-base style and depending on luck and babip.

[Disabled List]

92.  48 Maybe Aybar, Werth and Victorino wouldn't have turned into solid major-leaguers if they had stayed with the Dodgers, but they clearly had the talent to be solid players. My lament was about the inability of the Dodgers' front office to identify, value and make use of that talent.

I'm definitely in Rule 8 territory here, but the primary reason the Dodgers will not be able to sign both Sabathia and Manny this offseason is because of the massive amount of payroll being wasted on not one, but TWO unproductive centerfielders--while all the while we had Victorino, Werth and Matt Kemp pass though our system at various points.

[Eric Stephen]

93.  I have a simple offseason plan of signing Manny, CC, and Furcal. If that were to happen, I'd be happy to take my lumps at 2B and 3B with some combo of DeWitt, Abreu, DeJesus and Hu.

[Kevin Lewis]

94.  56

I would be fine with the field if Penny was replaced with CC

[Kevin Lewis]

95.  93

I'm listening

[El Lay Dave]

96.  87 What is the difference between "lack of alternatives" and "best available"?

The FA at 3B:

Casey Blake
Hank Blalock (team has option)
Joe Crede
Morgan Ensberg
Chipper Jones (team has option)
Corey Koskie
Greg Norton
Nick Punto

Unappealing.

[Jon Weisman]

97.  I don't really like seeing the Jones and Pierre signings lumped together. Jones had a good chance of being a big help*. Pierre did not.

* Scareduck and D4P are exempt from this. They may lump at will.

[El Lay Dave]

98.  96 Norton hasn't actually played a moment at 3rd since 2004, but his middle name is "Blakemoor" - cool.

[D4P]

99.  96
I mean that DeWitt is getting the starting job by DeFault. If he's the starter, it has much less to do with his performance (which, IMO, has not warranted a MLB starting 3B position) than it does with the fact that there are no other options right now.

Any kind of Mueller/Blake/Randa/Boone/Brosius/Generic No Power White Guy would probably be enough for Management to send DeWitt to the bench.

[Eric Stephen]

100.  98
We tried (Casey) Blake more in 2008, and will try Blake (DeWitt) more in 2009 as well.