Trading Aces

At It Might Be Dangerous... You Go First, Paul DePodesta uses the reports that Padres ace Jake Peavy might be traded to talk about the philosophy of dealing star players.

We are looking to get better.

It's really that simple. We're not trying to trade certain players, and we're certainly not looking to move players just to move them. As with any off-season or trading deadline, we're assessing the market value for our players to see whether or not that value surpasses their value to the Padres. If you have something you value at one million dollars, it would be foolish to refuse to consider selling it for twenty million dollars. On the flip side, it would also be foolish to sell it for anything less than one million. The thing that makes the market work is that each player has a different value to virtually every Club.

Furthermore, no one player makes a great team. This has been proven time and time again in baseball. We don't need to look any further than the 2008 Padres that went 63-99 with Jake Peavy ...

This, of course, doesn't mean that trading a star player ensures success. What it does show, however, is that trading a star player can buoy a team. That is what we're exploring.

As far as Jake's particular situation, we have him under contract for the next four years with an option for a fifth year. Our task, then, is to determine whether what we would receive in exchange for him would outweigh the benefits of having him for those five years (presumably some player(s) we would get in return could be of service for more than five years, so that needs to be factored in as well). Make no mistake, however - we place tremendous value on Jake's presence here. That is why any offers for him in past years and every day up until this writing have been rejected. ...

In short, we are charged with fielding the best possible team in both the short and long terms. Believe me, we wish we could put together a dynamic team comprised of players who would remain as Padres for the duration of their careers. On a personal level, we don't enjoy trading players. I don't know any executive who does. However, that just isn't the reality of today's game. Because of that fact, the best organizations out there can't really believe in the concept of "untouchable", because one can lose great opportunities with such blinders.

So, to answer the most basic question: are we going to trade Jake Peavy? We'll see if someone offers us a compelling deal that makes us better.

I've made a similar point on a number of occasions, saying that characterizing a team as a buyer or a seller is a false dichotomy. Teams are just looking to get better, the most efficient way possible.

Comments

[Jacob Burch]

1.  LAT'd in a few ways.

D4P: Sort of sums up the last few posts (we sort of got out of sync), but my objection was when BH suggested he didn't feel victimized, you acted as though because he liked the team, he was finding Ned perfect, etc etc etc. It irked me, but I think most of that has been sorted out.

And:
123 Eric will not rest until he tries and make people despise Nelson more than I despise him for the Matt Stairs home run.

And the compliment made me happier than you may realize, TC. Thanks.

[trainwreck]

2.  The free agent options for hitters really stink this year. I am worried about our offense for next year.

We are going to really need DeWitt to hit well enough to solidify third. If we cannot keep Manny, we are probably going to need to trade for an outfielder. Don't think we have enough to also trade for a third baseman.

[KG16]

3.  Furthermore, no one player makes a great team.

That's something we should put on a poster around here this off season. Baseball is a strange game, ultimately, it is an individualized sport played at the team level. What the player in front of me does has little bearing on what I do at the plate, what I do has little bearing on what the player behind me does. Against Pitcher X, a team scores 7 runs in two innings, the next day, against Pitcher Y, the team scores 2 runs in 7 innings.

I think it really takes at least 2 great position players and at least 2 great pitchers (in the old days to great starting pitchers were almost a requirement, but today you might be able to get by on one great starter and a great closer, but I'd still prefer to great starters) to make a good team great. That's likely the problem with the Dodgers as presently constructed, with the exception of Manny and Furcal (both free agents) the Dodgers don't have any great players, at the moment.

Still, I like this core group of guys and really hope none of them get moved for PVL.

[KG16]

4.  2 - I'm thinking that Blake will get re-signed if Manny leaves. That would move DeWitt to second, allow for one of Furcal/Hu/DeJesus at short, and give the farm some time to develop a third baseman.

Heck, might not be a bad idea anyway.

[Jacob Burch]

5.  3 My friend and I played a game the other day where we tried to, off the top of our heads, name the currently rostered player most likely to hit 300/30/100. It would be interesting to see if we could do the same trying to name the teams with two greats in each category.

I'm more one to think that my favorite teams have a solid 90% or so, top-to-bottom in the rotation, bullpen and line up with at least three great players spread through out it.

[Jacob Burch]

6.  Also, it has been batted around that Casey first said he'd most likely return to Cleveland, but it being a two-street way, I'm pretty positive Cleveland does not want him back. Am I nuts on thinking this?

[Tripon]

7.  6 Indian GM Shaprio said he's looking to resign Casey Blake if it makes sense.

[Branch Rickey]

8.  Furthermore, no one player makes a great team.
When this point comes up, I always think of the Mariners who couldn't win with Griffey, A-Rod and Randy Johnson. That is the ultimate lesson that winning baseball requires a balanced team much more than one, two or even three superstars.

[ToyCannon]

9.  6
If they are moving Peralta to 3rd and Cabrera to SS where do they have room for Casey?
It might be that the Dodgers were not very impressed with Casey, he didn't exactly do much during crunch time except hit one key home run. From Sept 16th till the end of the Dodger season he hit one home run. As a 3rd baseman. Carlos Santana could have done that from both sides of the plate in the same game.

[Jacob Burch]

10.  I hope Carlos Santana becomes the Bill Brasky of DT. Especially years down the line when he doesn't pan out* and new comers, equally confused by LAT, don't understand why we lionize a guitar player on a baseball blog.

* - Forgive me!

[ToyCannon]

11.  I don't know this Bill Brasky you speak of but I do no that HSC is already the poster child for players who didn't pan out that we loved.

My mancrush on Carlos is ego related as I was asking BA questions on him dated back to his days in the Dominican Rookie League only to be ignored until one day they looked up and said Holy Crap this guy is the MVP of the California League and might be better then this LaPorta guy we wet our pants about when he was traded for CC.

[bhsportsguy]

12.  11 I remember those questions.

[Jacob Burch]

13.  Source is one of the odder SNL skits during not-so-great mid-90s. Watching them was sort of absurd, but they're fun to read. Sort of Chuck Norris jokes a decade earlier, but more irreverent and usually actually funny.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Brasky

[D4P]

14.  Gurnick has an article up about Pierre asking for a trade.

[Jon Weisman]

15.  From the same article:

"Teammates say Jones wants no part of a return to Los Angeles."

[trainwreck]

16.  4
Re-signing Blake if Manny leaves is pretty much the worst consolation prize ever.

Looking at things, I think we almost have to sign Manny.

[Jon Weisman]

17.  That part is unsourced.

http://tinyurl.com/4vvhke

[D4P]

18.  15
Heh, I was just gonna post that.

[trainwreck]

19.  Frankly, we cannot count on Andruw Jones at all anyways.

[LogikReader]

20.  You know what, you guys?

No matter what the Dodgers went through this week, nothing is as embarrassing as this ALCS is for Boston.

The Boston dynasty crumbles!! Hooray for everybody!

[regfairfield]

21.  Once you get rid of Jake Peavy, you're going to replace him with a player that's worse than Jake Peavy. Unless the Padres get very lucky, the maximum number of games they could win is going to go down. Sure, they could replace him with some guys who will be more valuable combined than Peavy, but players where do you go from there if they aren't good enough? It's a lot cheaper to improve a team with one really good player and a bunch of bad ones than it is to improve a team with a bunch of okay ones.

[fanerman]

22.  20 I thought my wood knocking days were over.

Oh phewie, since it's not the Dodgers, whatever.

[bhsportsguy]

23.  But now, do Pierre and Jones fall into to the they don't want to be here category?

[D4P]

24.  23
Pierre wants to play. If he can't play here, then he doesn't want to be here.

Jones wants to get paid. The bottom line for 2009 is he'll get paid no matter where he is, but he might want to be somewhere else just so he doesn't have to deal with as much baggage. The baggage will accrue elsewhere too, but at least he'd start at a lower baggage level somewhere else.

[bhsportsguy]

25.  24 I can only speak for me but no one got less of a honeymoon than Andruw Jones. I'm not saying he should have but short of being cheered for on Opening Day, by the time he came home for the second homestand, it was over.

[trainwreck]

26.  If the Braves trade for Peavy, I sure hope the Padres do not get Jayson Hayward.

[trainwreck]

27.  *Heyward

[Ken Noe]

28.  I give JP credit, he could have made this an ugly issue during the season, but he didn't. I hope someone wants him, for his sake as well as ours. As for Jones, who on earth would want him?

[Brian Y]

29.  Besides being unsourced, it doesn't even specify WHICH of his teammates are saying this. Are these the teammates that even speak to him on a semi regular basis and would have any knowledge of what he does and does not want? I mean, this is just ridiculous journalism.

[bhsportsguy]

30.  Evan Longoria is an example of not drafting the best player because you have other players supposedly ahead of him in the system.

[underdog]

31.  Yah, I have more sympathy, or at least respect, for Pierre than I do for Jones. I'm glad Pierre isn't one of our starters, but at least he gave effort when he played, didn't cause a ruckus. Jones was just awful this year, and it's no one else's fault but his own. It's fine if he admits such, and works hard to remedy it, but he really shouldn't be demanding anything or expecting anyone else wants him. If he does play his way back into the mix next year, play more like he used to, then that'll be great for everyone. But he's got to earn that belief and the respect.

Pierre, as I've said here before, will definitely be traded this off-season. To who, and for what, will be the questions.

[bhsportsguy]

32.  UCLA starts basketball practice at 8:00 p.m.

There will be no press, cheerleaders or Joe Bruin in attendance.

However, expect Morgan and Gordon to learn what "hedging" means.

[underdog]

33.  Oh is there still baseball going on? :-/ (I literally almost forgot about the Rays-Sox game.)

But off to soccer!

[Bob Hendley]

34.  25 - You're right, but the booing may have been meant for Torre as well, since the strategy seemed to be to just keep plugging him in there day after day until he snapped out of it. He actually seemed to be regressing. And, of course, there were options on the bench. The same thing that motivated this plan, the big outlay for Dru, just intensified the booing.

[OhioBlues12]

35.  Everyone knew the Pierre trade demand would be coming and he will get traded and I think we will get something useful back. The question of what to do with Jones is a tough one. If Ramirez comes back we obviously have trade him or release him. If Ramirez doesn't come back then we still almost have to move Jones because the pressure to be the big bat will be even greater than it was before we got Ramirez. He will never live up to those expectations, though no one will be able to put up those numbers.

[trainwreck]

36.  32
That video of the freshmen interviewing each other was pretty cool.

[rayg]

37.  possible Pierre destinations? you need go no farther than Cincinnatti where Dusty Baker runs the team. He gave Corey Patterson another shot even though he didn't deserve it. Pierre played for Baker in Chicago.
Another is the Whitesox-they need a speedy OFer, and have read about this need more than a few times this year.

[Louis in SF]

38.  I don't think we will ever get full value for either JP or Jones and the only way to go is to trade both of them pick up significant parts of their salaries and get some prospects back who may have some value in a few years. What is unfortunate I really can't see a market for Jones unless we pay lots of his salary.

[Bob Hendley]

39.  There was a question in an earlier thread about the Dominican League. It commenced playing this week. The Mexican Pacific League started last weekend. Eric Stulst (sic) made his first start and went 5 IN 1 ER 6K and 0 BB. Also on the Mazatlan team with Eric are Terry Tiffee and Brian Myrow.

[KG16]

40.  29 - the bit on Jones is not the sort of thing you can source and expect to get access in the future. dirty laundry only gets aired on background. What happens if the Dodgers don't move Jones and this source said that it was Kemp or Ethier or Martin that said this? It's going to be a bad situation in the locker room, and despite the chemistry mythos, that's not good for a team. It's not bad journalism at all, it's reporting what can be reported without destroying your source.

[ryu]

41.  I must admit I really enjoy watching Jonathan Palpelbon struggle.

[KG16]

42.  38 - what is full value of something you don't need/want? Honestly, if moving these guys improves the team (even if it's addition by subtraction), then it's the right move and in the best interest of the team. Even if you have to swallow some of the salary, the goal is to make the MLB roster the best possible this and each year.

[trainwreck]

43.  We should clone the Upton brothers and field an entire team of them.

[OhioBlues12]

44.  42 - Exactly. The goal should be to move move players that are tying up resouces and providing no benefit for players where we have a need even if money has to exchange hands. I can't see any scenario where Pierre would be useful to this team so he should be moved for a player that would be useful even if that player is only marginally useful.

[Jon Weisman]

45.  40 - We can debate what "bad journalism" is, but the unsourced aspect limits its value and its reliability. And if it hadn't been reported at all, I don't think any of us would be worse off.

[Indiana Jon]

46.  37 I agree. Since the Reds have traded away their entire outfield from last year and have only Bruce to replace them, and possibly Dickerson is he's as good as he was the last couple of months, they need someone out there better than Patterson. Pierre may be that guy. The Dodgers could probably get Encarnacion for him.

[OhioBlues12]

47.  Example - Trade Jones to the Yanks for Kei Igawa. This would not be trade because of any burning desire to acquire Igawa, but more to move Jones and get a player that might be useful but would likely only provide depth in case a pitcher got hurt. We trade Jones and pay his entire salary for Igawa with the Yanks paying his salary. Not saying something like this should or would happen but it would be the only way to move Jones.

[rayg]

48.  couple things:
Peavy-Olney reports he could be dealt fairly quickly:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3647795&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

sorry, no idea how to "tinyurl"

and Jones was quoted in a Dylan Hernandez article on Oct. 10th saying "I'm an everyday player or I'm out"....check it out.

Already an interesting offseason in LA.

[Preston Bannard]

49.  Keith Law joked in his chat today that Jones and Pierre have negative trade value - I honestly can't see any trade with either of them that brings back anything remotely useful, even if we're eating their entire contracts. These are sunk costs, and we just have to hope that they can contribute positively in some way, because they currently have essentially zero worth on the market.

As for Pierre wanting to be traded, the Dodgers can do just what the Red Sox did with Manny a couple years back - stick him on waivers, where no one will touch him with a ten foot pole; maybe that will clue him into the fact that he's not going to be a starter for the life of his contract on any team that's likely to win 70 games.

If Jones is a clubhouse cancer, then we might as well cut him, but I'd rather at least give him a shot to win a job next spring, just in case he decides to show up in shape.

[jujibee]

50.  46. There is no way that trade happens unless we further deplete our minor league system or pay them money to take Pierre. This team needs to go in one of 2 directions. 1, sign Manny and plug in some chips around him or 2, forget Manny and sign/trade players that are average or a little better offensively but great defensively and concentrate on pitching. The problem is taht Ned has hamstrung this team with bad contracts. While I was for the Jones signing, the Schmidt and Pierre additions I was against. That money could be used this offseason, though I'm sure Ned would've exhausted those funds into contracts that we'd still be dealing with.

[bhsportsguy]

51.  From ESPN.com on Peavy being on the trade table.

San Diego, too, is said to be willing to deal with the rival Dodgers, who could conceivably have some excellent young players to dangle, like outfielder Matt Kemp and pitchers Clayton Kershaw and James McDonald. The Padres intended to wait until the Dodgers completed their playoff run before engaging in serious talks with L.A.

[rayg]

52.  In that Hernandez article, I think he says that Jones stays in contact witn Furcal and Berroa....mentioned another player who I forget at teh moment.

[fanerman]

53.  49 We should want to get rid of Pierre, especially if we don't have to pay his salary. We could use the money to help sign an expensive free agent.

I'd have to think there's some team that would want Pierre for next to nothing except having to pay his salary. Right?

[Jon Weisman]

54.  51 - BH, BH ....

[bhsportsguy]

55.  53 But right now, the Dodgers have no incentive to deal him unless they know that they have at least 4 outfielders better than him on the roster.

[bhsportsguy]

56.  54 Sources: Pads gauging interest in Peavy, whose contract runs through 2013

http://tinyurl.com/busterpeavy

[rayg]

57.  BH-55. I disagree...if they somehow find someone who will take on all, or a portion, of his salary, that gives Ned more money to spend on CC/Peavy/Furcal....etc.

[Preston Bannard]

58.  53 I don't think there's anyone out there that's interested in paying $27 million over 3 years for a player that's currently a 4th outfielder, at best, and is only going to further regress in the next 3 years. I think we'll have to pay at least 2/3 of that to get rid of him, and that's without getting anything in return.

[rayg]

59.  58-Think Cincy-they need a leadoff hitter and CFer-they traded Dunn and Griffey and shouldn't put Bruce is CF.

[Dave60]

60.  Sometime around June, someone here suggested re-signing Furcal and moving him to centerfield. The idea has increasingly captivated me. I live 400 miles to the north so can't follow every Dodger story. Has that idea gained any traction?

If so, I'd be fine with Manny going elsewhere. He's great at honeymoons, but bad at marriages. Let's call it a good 2-1/2 months and move on.

With the outfield, first, and catcher set, let's give DeWitt second. I'm not sure he's the solution there, but he's earned 300 at-bats to prove himself. Shortstop can be up for grabs between Hu and DeJesus.

Which leaves third base. I'd be okay with Blake, but think we can do just as well for fewer dollars. Florida doesn't seem interested in giving Dallas McPherson a chance. Plug him in at third and seem if he can do an Adam Dunn inpersonation?

[Jon Weisman]

61.  I wasn't looking for the link. Quoting an article that suggests the Dodgers might even consider trading Kershaw ... I thought we knew better.

[Jon Weisman]

62.  60 - We need infielders more than outfielders.

[bhsportsguy]

63.  61 I think it is more like Olney (or his sources) tossing out names.

[Dave60]

64.  62 Agreed. That scenario would assume that at least Jones and perhaps Pierre also would go away. But we need a solution that keep Furcal's back healthy.

[rayg]

66.  how about putting Furcal at 2b, he played there in the Dominican league last winter, and trading for JJ Hardy?

[Louis in SF]

65.  42

I am in complete agreement of addition by subtraction and a trade like that: getting Igawa might be the type of trade that will work. The problem I see that even paying lots of Jones salary, I still don't know how attractive he will be on the market. Would the Yankees entertain a Jones for Cano deal?

[Jon Weisman]

67.  63 - Yeah - in other words, it's nonsense.

[jujibee]

68.  I find it amusing that articles still mention Kemp, McDonald, and Kershaw in the same breath as Kennedy, Hughes, and Cabrera, thought the later seemed to be referencing fallen prospects, but it still wasn't clear.

[LogikReader]

69.  20

Ohhhhhhhhh NOOO!

[fordprefect]

70.  Hold on a second, people, we got a game in Fenway.

[fanerman]

71.  69 22 This is partly my fault...

[milkshakeballa]

72.  I'm wondering i anyone else is in agreement with me.....

James MacDonald has a #1 type ceiling. Maybe not the potential of Kershaw (left-handed) but almost as high of ceiling as Bills. The guy's stuff is nasty. H can get it up to 94-95 with a nice curve and a filthy change. I do NOT want to see MacDonald traded.

[bhsportsguy]

73.  72 From what I saw last night, he lacks a blazing fastball and I don't know if his change up is an out pitch.

He's good but he's not a No. 1.

[KG16]

74.  I think Billingsly, Kershaw, and MacDonald are the untouchables on the pitching staff. In the line up, I'd say Ethier, Martin, Kemp. Everyone else would be tradeable, if the right deal came along. So, Onley's sources can talk all they want, as long as they don't talk is an audible whisper near Ned's ear.

[KG16]

75.  I hate Boston sports.

[KG16]

76.  hmmm, Khalil Greene might be included in a Peavy trade. I am now a bit more interested. Not Kershaw-MacDonald-Kershaw interested, but interested.

[LoneStar7]

77.  I don't believe what I'm seeing, hopefully the Rays really put a dagger into beantown's heart by raking one outta here right now...

[Alex41592]

78.  Journey lives on at Fenway.

[kinbote]

79.  So . . . the offseason is 24 hours and we're already awash in rumors. My takeaway:

1. Manny's gone
2. Furcal's coming back
3. DeWitt's moving back to 3b

Right now, I'm interested in seeing a DeJesus/Hu/Abreu battle for 2b this spring. I'd also like to see the Dodgers consider converting Schmidt to a short reliever.

I really don't care about Jones/Pierre. Put 'em on the depth chart as our Cf platoon [while knowing Repko/Paul might well be more productive] and say a little prayer for Ned.

Among the questions I want to see addressed soon is what we plan on doing with Elbert. Will he be groomed as a reliever or a starter (in which case he'll likely need more seasoning)?

[milkshakeballa]

80.  Agree. I'm interested in seeing what they do with Elbert. I'm sure Logan will have the say in that so I do trust what they end up deciding on.

[kinbote]

81.  72 It would be a huge surprise is he's ever a #1. We only need him to be a #3, as in: Bills/Kershaw/McDonald.

[Dave60]

82.  74 With the DePodesta/Weisman caveat from above that no player should truly be considered untouchable, I agree with your list, with the possible exception of Ethier. I love his game and hope he remains a Dodger for years, but think that other teams could overvalue him, in which case he should be moved.

I just don't think that he'll get much better than he is today, but wouldn't be surprised if another team thinks that there is another possible 10-15% growth.

[KG16]

83.  82 - I remain committed to the position I staked out earlier this year: the Dodgers will rue the day they trade Ethier. Rue, I say.

[kinbote]

84.  80 For whatever reason, Torre didn't seem to trust Beimel this year. I see us adding an "experienced" lefty reliever and sending Elbert back to the minors to work on his starter's arsenal.

[kinbote]

85.  83 I spent some lovely nights on Rue Ethier . . .

[fanerman]

86.  LogikReader!!!

[milkshakeballa]

87.  Obviously Mac would be the #3 to Kersh and Bills....but he doesn't have #3 type stuff. I think he has 1.5 type stuff, maybe more towards the #2....but I think the Dodgers will regret if they ever trade him. And I quiver in fear at the thought of what little Colletti would get in an unproven pitcher like MacDonald...I don't think he would get near the value MacDonald has.

MacDonald can get it up to 94 or 95, but is consistant at 91/92. I feel with a little more work, his changeup can easily be his outpitch. The nastiest pitch I have seen a Dodger throw this year besides Kershaw's curveball is MacDonald's very first pitch in Philly against Burrell, a 74 mph changeup. Just FILTHY.

[KG16]

88.  sometimes, i like to believe that I'm going to wake up in the morning and it's going to be October 17, 2004, and Jorge Posada throws out Dave Roberts. and then I am happy for a brief moment, then I remember it's still 2008, and am very sad.

[KG16]

89.  i do love it when Ortiz tries to bunt down the third base line, though.

[KG16]

90.  player's union filing a grievance against the clubs for acting in concert on Bonds.

http://tinyurl.com/5g6k24

Problem is, with the indictment and bad PR, every team in the league had a legit reason to not sign Bonds.

[jujibee]

91.  MacDonald is a #3 pitcher on a good team right now. I like his stuff and how he attacks hitters, but he isn't anything more than a #3 on this club. He might become something better seeing how he's only been pitching for 2-3 years after converting from an outfielder...time will tell. But I was quite impressed with him in the playoffs this year, moreso than what I saw of him in the minors.

[Indiana Jon]

92.  Red Sox win, unbelievable.

[KG16]

93.  The Tampa Bay Rays are officially on notice.

[JRSarno]

94.  Damn, down 7 runs and the BoSox show some crazy resolve. I wish we had conjured some of that yesterday, down by only 5! Youth v. Experience.

[rayg]

95.  79-I like the idea of Schmidt in the bullpen also.

[Alex41592]

96.  Rays were 7 outs from the World Series with a 7 run lead.

[njr]

97.  What a game. Those Red Sox do seem to have an eerie ability to come back year after year just when you think they're out of it.

This was the kind of playoff game I was hoping to see the Dodgers be a part of and win. Oh well, maybe in a few years...

[Indiana Jon]

98.  79 Wow, that's a depressing list. I would prefer this one.

1. Manny's coming back
2. Furcal's gone
3. Laroche's moving back to LA

[LogikReader]

99.  86

I know... I know... I bury my head in shame... I can't believe it... I jinxed the game!

[milkshakeballa]

100.  How come JD Drew didn't play like this with the Dodgers?