One Last Look Backward, And Then Forward

In the 2008 National League Championship Series, Rafael Furcal has as many hits as game-changing errors. Casey Blake has one walk, one single and one giant Almost.

But the guy I want to preach patience for most of all today is Matt Kemp.

A lot of folks have grown frustrated with Kemp, such as the estimable ToyCannon at True Blue L.A.. Kemp is 1 for 7 in the NLCS and 3 for 20 in the postseason. All three of Kemp's hits have been doubles, and he also has two walks, but I understand that a .527 OPS is not enough to make people feel better. It hasn't been a great October.

However, I guess what I don't want is for the heightened intensity of the playoffs to cause people to lose faith in Kemp. Kemp is a streak hitter. He's looked bad countless times for the Dodgers - he did set the team single-season strikeout record, after all - and then come back to post remarkable games.

Some of Kemp's failings are more inexplicable than others. Sometimes he gets himself out, but other times, you have to tip your hat to the pitcher. It's not as if Kemp is alone in tipping his hat to Cole Hamels or Brad Lidge or any of the Cub pitchers who came into October with sterling seasons. Kemp has struck out seven times in the playoffs, but that's the same as Russell Martin and one fewer than Andre Ethier. As a team, the Dodgers have struck out 22 times in their past two games.

In any case, I truly dispute the notion that he's been hopeless at the plate.

With runners on second and third in the first inning of the NLCS, Kemp went to the fourth pitch of the count and then drove the ball to right-center field. It was an out, but it showed a hitter who wasn't trying to do too much, who was just trying to get that hit. In fact, Kemp has gone to right a few times in the series, including his one hit, a flyball double just inside the line.

In the ninth inning of Game 1, Kemp made a bid to tie the game off Lidge with a deep out to center field. Perhaps it wasn't quite in the Manny Ramirez or Blake class of near-home runs, but Shane Victorino had to go back to get it.

In Game 2, Kemp got off to an 0-for-3 start that included a first-inning strikeout with two runners in scoring position. But instead of letting that undermine the rest of his game, he drew consecutive walks in the fifth and seventh innings. It was his two-out, none-on walk in the seventh that set up Blake's potential game-tying homer.

Again, it has been anything but a successful series for Kemp, but he's not lost. He has taken some bad swings, but he has also put the bat on the ball with runners on base and been drawing the occasional walks. In short, he's been Kemp. He's not Willie Mays, but don't let the times he looks awful lead you to believe that he can't look good.

Kemp is a metaphor for the Dodgers in the NLCS. The bad has outweighed the good, but the good is still there, ready to be tapped.

* * *

With the exception of James McDonald, the Dodgers should have a full bullpen to back Hiroki Kuroda today. Hong-Chih Kuo has had two days off, as have Jonathan Broxton and Greg Maddux. Cory Wade threw only three pitches Friday and Joe Beimel 12.

Kuroda himself hasn't pitched in exactly a week. The Dodgers will of course be hoping that he can pitch more shutout ball, but if the Phillies cash in opportunities the way that Chicago couldn't, Joe Torre can't hesitate to go to the relievers, even though Derek Lowe will be pitching on three days' rest Monday. The Dodgers need to get this victory today before they can worry about problems they might or might not have tomorrow.

* * *

Other tidbits:

Take away Carlos Ruiz, Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, and the Phillies are batting .208 in the NLCS.

When the Dodgers fell behind 2-0 in four playoff series from 1995-2006 - a total of eight games - four of those defeats were by one run.

Dodger middle-infielders Furcal, Blake DeWitt and Jeff Kent are 1 for 18 with no walks in the NLCS. DeWitt does have two RBI.

In the NLCS, the two teams' bullpens have pitched 14 1/3 innings without allowing a run.

Update: Scott Proctor will have season-ending surgery, reports Tony Jackson of the Daily News.

* * *

There should be a beautiful sunset tonight. When the game starts, the scoreboard will say 0-0. Let's have some fun.

Phillies at Dodgers, 5:22 p.m.

Comments

[Marty]

1.  Could be on the windy side too.

[MollyKnight]

2.  Everyone going to the game: have fun and be safe. And if you see a Dodger fan berating a Philly fan, say something.

[MC Safety]

3.  (In best Billy Mays voice)

Tidbit One! Brought to you by the makers of Life's Not Fair!

[Linkmeister]

4.  2 Molly, did you report on your experience at CB Park the other day (and the restaurant review!) and I just missed it in the flood of comments?

[Branch Rickey]

5.  Take away Carlos Ruiz, Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, and the Phillies are batting .208 in the NLCS.
I think this pretty much sums up the whole notion of flukes being the biggest factor. If those three close their eyes, swing and happen to hit like Babe Ruth for two days, you lose. Not a lot more analysis of what you did wrong needed. As for Kemp, he will be starting until these playoffs end and he will be starting opening day next year. He's got the skills. But approach is a real thing and he lacks skills in that dept. With the skills he does have, he can win a game any time. Hopefully we'll see more of that this week than his flaws. Maybe next year he'll close that gap and be unstoppable.

[KG16]

6.  I hate to say this, but I think this post-season could be a net negative for the Dodgers. Either this team is a young team that has so far out performed expectations, and the clock is finally tolling midnight; or, this team is a very good team playing below its actual ability.

Either way, I think it bodes well for the Dodgers over the next few years, as I don't think that any of the core players have reached their peaks. But, let's also keep in mind that this is a team with 2 All Stars (Martin and Saito (did he make it this year); 3 if you count Manny). Manny and an aged/ineffective Kent are the only potential Hall of Famers (at this time).

When it comes to Kemp, let's not turn into Yankee fans, complaining about A-Rod because he only hits .275 in the playoffs with solo home runs. Bison is going to come around, hopefully tonight, and if not in this series, then next year and the year after that and the year after that. Same with Loney, Martin, Ethier, and DeWitt.

Besides, all the Dodgers have to do over the next couple of days is what they did in the regular season, beat the Phillies three times at Dodger Stadium.

[MC Safety]

7.  First three comments by handles that start with an M.

[KG16]

8.  5 - luckily, "approach" is something that can be taught. Where as, "running fast", "throwing hard", and "hitting the ball really, really hard" are not so much teachable as natural.

[Branch Rickey]

9.  Time to go root them on... sounds like there'll be a strong DT contingent out there... Cheer loudly and enjoy. If you're not going, cheer loudly and enjoy!

[Branch Rickey]

10.  8 Agreed!

[superbas]

11.  that's the thing, i haven't seen the progress in kemp from the start of the season till now...that's where the frustration part comes in.

[MC Safety]

12.  I miss the first Matt Kemp we ever saw. The one who used to pull homers.

[Alex41592]

13.  Matt Kemp (September 12 - September 25, 2008)

.370/.404/.519/.923

20 for 54 2 HR's 7 RBI's 3 walks

He's just in a funk right now.

[jasonungar07]

14.  If Berroa is playing instead of Furcal we may be winning the series. If Pierre was playing in front of Kemp all of you who write bad things now about Kemp now would

1. wonder why kemp is not playing
2. bash torre for not playing kemp
3. bash Pierre
4. bash Ned for having Pierre there

[KG16]

15.  11 - here is Kemp's game logs for this season.

http://tinyurl.com/bison2008

I see substantial improvement in the last 65 games (or so) of the season. Only 7 games with multiple strikeouts, his batting average very consistently in the .290s and a ton of multi-hit games. Also, let's not forget, he just turned 23

[KG16]

16.  14 - eh, we tend to do #4 just because.

[Jon Weisman]

17.  From Tony Jackson: Proctor to have season-ending surgery.

http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers/2008/10/scott-proctor-t.html

[Bob Timmermann]

18.  Dick Stockton makes similar errors in football broadcasts as he did on baseball broadcasts.

[D4P]

19.  18
Do you ever assign him multiple errors on one call...?

[DBrim]

20.  Analysis of tonight's pitching match-up

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2008/10/12/tale-o-tape-nlcs-game-3-pitching-moyer-should-fear-manny/

[MollyKnight]

21.  3-I had a blast in Philly, despite the losses. The stadium experience during game one was fine, but during game #2 it got ugly. I think people were drunker 'cause it was a Friday, and cockier 'cause the Phillies were already up 1-0.

Thing is: I've never heard a stadium quieter than Citizen's Bank Park during Game 1 when the Dodgers had the lead. I mean, it was SILENT. Those people are notoriously paranoid, so if we could somehow push this series back to Philly and take the lead in game 6, I really like our odds.

[Linkmeister]

22.  21 Philadelphia silent? Yikes. Then I like the odds too.

[underdog]

23.  I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you.

(Repeat every few scenes, er, innings or so.)

[Andrew Shimmin]

24.  The Cowboys and Cardinals are standing in the way of my learning what Jeanne Zelasko thinks of Loney's benching.

For the first time in my life, I'm grateful to the NFL.

[Andrew Shimmin]

25.  You have forty-five minutes, gentlemen. Use them all, but don't you dare go over.

[Sam PHL]

26.  21. Jimmy Rollins has a word to describe those fans.

[Sam DC]

27.  What a trainwreck (no offense, trainwreck) the end of this Cards/Cows game is. No one announcing for Fox has any idea what the NFL Rulebook says should happen when a team snaps before a limping player gets off the field.

[Sam DC]

28.  ( 27 And they had a LONG time to look it up and still never did.)

[Lee Corbett]

29.  what do we think of Loney's benching? Nomar's AB at the end of the other night's game was execrable. I thought Loney was going reasonably well.

[MollyKnight]

30.  Update from last night: My super just came and liberated the rat from my cupboard. It was dead. I screamed again.

[MollyKnight]

31.  Update again: it was a mouse. I'd like someone (perhaps Bob) to explain to me the differences between rats and mice.

[Marty]

32.  Rats are what you saw. Mice are what you find.

[gpellamjr]

33.  29 I think it's kind of a non-issue. Loney's been playing fairly well, and is a better defensive 1B. But Nomar has hit Moyer pretty well in the past (admittedly years ago), and seems like a good risk against the soft-tossing LHP.

[Marty]

34.  Actually I find dead rats occasionally in my back yard. They're just somehow rattier looking than mice. Usually bigger too.

[DBrim]

35.  Generally it's size. Rats are huge, mice are not. At least that's how it works here.

[D4P]

36.  Rats are big. Mice are small.

[Andrew Shimmin]

37.  Top score wins a prize from Bob!

http://www.ratbehavior.org/QuizRatOrMouse.htm

[D4P]

38.  Has anyone else had the flu yet this year? I've been stricken since Thursday, roughly 3 weeks before my scheduled flu shot.

[D4P]

39.  37
10 out of 12

[LoneStar7]

40.  will there be rally towels tonight?

[Andrew Shimmin]

41.  Rats. I only got a nine.

[GiantturnedDodger]

42.  I'm looking for a new idea for pregame early dinner/drinks for tomorrows game. We've done Philips, Spring Street Smokehouse, Chinatown, Olvera Street and Pacific Dining Car (never again). Any new ideas? Does anyone know a good pizza and beer place downtown?

[MollyKnight]

43.  I got 12/12!

So it was a rat that I saw!

Related: EW.

[Ken Noe]

44.  I watched the first two games in a hotel in New Orleans, and thus threw the universe out of kilter. I'm now home. Dodgers roll.

[D4P]

45.  When we lived in Oregon, our cat brought in a live "mouse" and dropped it in our kitchen. It ran into a storage room, and hid amongst a bunch of boxes. We looked for it but couldn't find it.

For the next 4-5 months, we set up a mousetrap every night, with cheese or peanut butter or some such thing, only to awake to find the trap sprung and the food gone. We finally bought a large squirrel trap (that didn't harm the animal, but just caged them in) and eventually found out that the mouse had actually been a baby rat. The thing was humongous.

[trainwreck]

46.  Perfect time for family gathering to end.

[trainwreck]

47.  My friend is at the game and sitting next to Chase Utley's family.

[Alex41592]

48.  There is a media section in the reserve level! Right behind home plate.

[trainwreck]

49.  That was awesome to have Rob and Danny do it.

[Marty]

50.  Only pizza place I can think of is a Pitfire on Second and Main. Pete's on 4th and Main has good beers and great hamburgers.

[nick]

51.  Was that short man in the sunglasses my brother? Am I required to love him?

I hate the whole city of Philadelphia after that.

[Marty]

52.  Joe Buck, what took you so long?

[nick]

53.  Was that short man in the sunglasses my brother? Am I required to love him?

I hate the whole city of Philadelphia after that.

[KG16]

54.  11 of 12 on the rats/mice test.

unrelated: hey, two up, two down. nice.

also unrelated: i ordered an iphone today. went to the apple store, only to learn that the network with at&t was down and they couldn't complete the purchase. so i have to go back tomorrow. but i did get Civilization IV, so there is a good chance that this is the last you hear from me until Spring Training.

[Alex41592]

55.  Utley walks again.

[thinkblue88]

56.  GG!!!

[thinkblue88]

57.  and furcal, nice tag!

[Alex41592]

58.  Nice pick by Furcal.

[KG16]

59.  nice defense by Martin/Furcal

[Marty]

60.  He looked safe to me.

[Lexinthedena]

61.  Rosenthal is so usless.

[tethier]

62.  60 Caught a break there - he looked safe to me too.

[Lexinthedena]

63.  Marty, no one likes a party pooper.

[PDH5204]

64.  Those creatures in the photos, well, none of them look like the Rattus rattus that I've declared war on every now and again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rattus_rattus

See that "tending even to flee upwards" there in the 2nd paragraph? Rattus rattus is very good at climbing the curtains. Helps to have your Easton Assassin handy. So too your Titan TPM 2020. The screaching following contact isn't pretty, but this is war.

What with rabbits as pets, well, Rattus rattus can smell the waste and food, even with regular daily cleaning, and the critters have been known to chew through the bottom of wooden doors to create entry space. Two paid dearly for that error and I was so incensed that they were even buried without customary and traditional honors. Presumably, lucky for me that Rattus rattus is not protected by any Geneva convention concerning the treatment of enemy combatants during time of war.

[Marty]

65.  Mary Hart?

[KG16]

66.  Mary Hart? that's the best Fox could do in LA?

[Kuo-fax]

67.  60 & 62 Looked safe to me too. Nice to see us catching a break, compared to Friday!

[thinkblue88]

68.  Furcal!! Yess, solid base hit.

[Alex41592]

69.  Atta boy. Now take second Furcal!

[KG16]

70.  this bodes well for the Dodgers.

[Greg Brock]

71.  Why not just have a botox needle give the starting lineup.

[Lexinthedena]

72.  Who's Mary Hart? Seriously, I don't know who she is.

I thought Beimel did a phenomenal job yesterday.

[Alex41592]

73.  GREAT START GUYS!

[Rob M]

74.  Nice start guys...

[thinkblue88]

75.  Ethier!! Finally, getting guys on.

[Lexinthedena]

76.  Ma-Knee!

Ma-Knee!

[KG16]

77.  72 - apparently she's a host on Extra

[thinkblue88]

78.  WoooohoooooHOOOOOOOOO!!!!

71. LoL!

[Rob M]

79.  Even better! Moyer ain't foolin' nobody.

[Marty]

80.  Thanks Brock, I did a spit-take.

[Raf]

81.  Not sure what Pat was thinking throwing home...

[Sam DC]

82.  Wow. My solidarity-with-la chorizo burrito is good.

But this -- http://tinyurl.com/3mltvr -- is grossly, overly hot.

Which I kind of like.

[Alex41592]

83.  And look who's coming up.

[Lexinthedena]

84.  If Hiroki doesn't retaliate, Rosenthal will have someone's head!

[Andrew Shimmin]

85.  Havoc!

[Alice S]

87.  Right off the kneecap. Ouch. I felt that one all the way over here

[Indiana Jon]

86.  Things are looking good so far. I am cautiously optimistic.

[Lexinthedena]

88.  82 The Chile Verde they make is fantastic.

[Lexinthedena]

89.  Wow....that was a really great pitch.

[Sam DC]

90.  OOOoooooohhhhh . . . . so close Nomar.

Strike 3 was a heckuva pitch . . .

[KG16]

91.  that was a nice pitch by Moyer for the called third strike, but what ever happened to defending the strike zone with 2 strikes?

[thinkblue88]

92.  Nice hit Beard!

[Lexinthedena]

93.  Chuck Norris does not bow to old pitchers.

[KG16]

94.  It's time for the hit parade

[Greg Brock]

95.  Come on, Matty.

[Sam DC]

96.  I'm just stuck with the picture of Jon at the stadium, just hoping so deeply for Kemp here . . .

[KG16]

97.  3-0 to Kemp, nice.

[KG16]

98.  that was not a strike.

[Lexinthedena]

99.  Another great pitch by Moyer.

[Greg Brock]

100.  Swing the bat, Kemp.