Who's Whose

Below is a chart of who brought in the players on the 2007 Dodger roster and how much those players have contributed to this year's success as hitters and pitchers, according to Baseball Prospectus and its Value Over Replacement Player statistic.

There are some major caveats that come with this chart:

This is not an effort to determine who the best or most important front-office executive is. It couldn't be. For example, if Ned Colletti chose the right players from his predecessors to keep, that reflects well on him. And we don't know what Paul DePodesta or Dan Evans would have done had they stayed in the organization longer.

The statistics do not factor in defense.

Playing time granted by manager Grady Little have an obvious effect on each player's numbers.

And so on.

I did feel it was interesting to see how some of this broke down, forever, even if the presentation is unscientific. At a minimum, credit for the Dodgers' current first-place standing in the National League West should be shared.

Paul DePodesta (84.1)

Name		Bat	Pitch	Total
Penny		3.5	41.4	44.9
Lowe		2.2	25.1	27.3
Kent		11.9	---	11.9

Logan White (60.3)

Name		Bat	Pitch	Total
Martin		23.0	---	23.0
Loney		11.0	---	11.0
Broxton		---	8.5	8.5
Kemp		7.7	---	7.7
Billingsley	0.9	6.4	7.3
Abreu		2.1	---	2.1
LaRoche		0.7	---	0.7

Ned Colletti (50.9)

Name		Bat	Pitch	Total
Gonzalez		21.1	---	21.1
Saito		---	14.8	14.8
Wolf		1.0	12.5	13.5
Seanez		-0.1	7.0	6.9
Ethier		5.5	---	5.5
Furcal		5.2	---	5.2
Tsao		---	5.1	5.1
Hendrickson	-1.8	5.5	3.7
Beimel		---	2.9	2.9
Betemit		2.7	---	2.7
Pierre		-0.3	---	-0.3
Anderson		-0.9	---	-0.9
Valdez		-1.8	---	-1.8
Clark		-3.1	---	-3.1
Lieberthal	-3.1	---	-3.1
Schmidt		0.9	-4.2	-3.3
Garciaparra	-5.7	---	-5.7
Tomko		-1.7	-4.2	-5.9
Martinez		-6.4	---	-6.4

Dan Evans (-0.2)

Name		Bat	Pitch	Total
Saenz		2.9	---	2.9
Brazoban		---	-3.1	-3.1

Ed Creech (-0.9)

Name		Bat	Pitch	Total
Kuo		1.5	-2.4	-0.9

* * *

Fun with history, courtesy of Eric Enders:

Best Career Slugging Percentage in Baseball History
(since 1871, min. 100 PA)

.690 Babe Ruth
.662 James Loney
.634 Ted Williams
.632 Lou Gehrig
.621 Albert Pujols
.611 Ryan Howard
.609 Jimmie Foxx
.608 Barry Bonds
.605 Hank Greenberg

Enjoy it while it lasts ...

Comments

[D4P]

1.  I've wanted to post something like this before, but thought it might be verboten. It's worth adding this:

Average VORP

Depo: 20.3
White: 7.4
Evans: 2.9
Flanders: 2.7

Course, it's also worth noting that, among the four player acquisitioners, only Depo probably knows/cares about VORP.

[StolenMonkey86]

2.  Course, it's also worth noting that, among the four player acquisitioners, only Depo probably knows/cares about VORP.

I'm sure White knows about it, but also keep in mind he drafts them.

[StolenMonkey86]

3.  wait, when was DePo hired?

[weatherman]

4.  I like that 100 PA counts as a "career".

It seems odd that Ned has brought in 5X as many players as Depo. I look forward to seeing how their draft classes match up.

[kngoworld]

5.  In a few years it might be interesting to evaluate the players White drafted under each general manager. I am sure White has the majority of say when it comes to drafting players but the GM should have some input.

[kngoworld]

6.  4
Depo brought in other players, they were just not on the team this year.

[Jon Weisman]

7.  The key thing about Colletti (at least as far as perception) is that so far, in over a year and a half, he hasn't gotten rid of anyone that most people care about. The closest to that was Izturis, but that didn't really burn people. His worst moves can be written off as bad spending. "It's not my money."

He can't keep that going forever, of course, but he has that going for him right now.

[Bob Timmermann]

8.  DePodesta was hired in the middle of February 2004.

[Joshua Worley]

9.  Ned has let a lot of the Depo players who didn't work out go, of course. That pushes up Depo's average a lot.

[Greg Brock]

10.  7 He hasn't brought much in that anybody cares about, either.

[Joshua Worley]

11.  10

Saito!

[bhsportsguy]

12.  4, 5

The 2004 and 2005 drafts are a bit hazy right now.

2004 - Elbert remains as the best prospect but he is injured and will miss the rest of this season. Dewitt and Orenduff were the other high picks along with Dunlap, none of these players are destined to be in LA anytime soon.
2005 - Hochevar affair, enough said (some would put this in both DePo's and Ned's camp but he was drafted under Paul's regime so here he stays) Meloan and Josh Bell are two of best prospects in 2005, Meloan certainly seems to be on track to play in LA sooner rather than later and Bell is probably the best young power hitter in the system.

Under Ned you have 2006, which has Kershaw, a raw Mattingly, a TJed Morris and a Canadian named Orr at the top of the list, all young and at least 2-3 years away. 2007 remains to be seen.

I think it is unlikely to see the wealth of talent up with the Dodgers that White's first two drafts has brought in, Loney, Broxton, Martin, Billingsley, Kemp, LaRoche and now the latest to be added maybe in a few years, James McDonald. That's a lot of frontline talent for a decade of drafts let alone two years. And not even mentioning the guys from those drafts that are still in the system.

[D4P]

13.  Ned has let a lot of the Depo players who didn't work out go, of course. That pushes up Depo's average a lot

I had thought of that.

[StolenMonkey86]

14.  8 - That's what I thought, and Brazoban was part of the Kevin Brown trade from December 2003.

[regfairfield]

15.  Colletti deserves at least partial credit for Kent, since the DePo contract expired last year.

[ToyCannon]

16.  1
Your kind of cherry picking aren't you. Look at the VORP for Depo's boys in 2004/2005 when he had to fill a roster of 25 not with what is left of the good ones.
Using Jon's analysis it would be easy to look at the roster configuration for each of the Gm's starting with Evans last year through today. Last year Ned would have been on top with the positives from Furcal/Nomar/Maddux and the negatives Depo would have taken from Penny's meltdown.

In any given year I'd like to see the home grown boys with the largest VORP. We are well on our way to seeing that happen over the next few years.

[Greg Brock]

17.  11 He signed a NRI, 36 year old journeyman Japanese baseball player. I don't know how Saito has pulled this off, but he has. If Ned saw this coming, he is Jesus.

[bhsportsguy]

18.  7 Furcal was a good signing, if he could have avoided Repko, he probably would have a higher VORP and raise Ned's total there. And I think most believe that Raffy has worked out for the Dodgers.

Wolf and Gonzalez have probably done at least as much as could be expected and in Luis's case, he is having a good month so that reflects even better.

Obviously Nomar has been a double-edged sword, he certainly filled a need both in the PR sense for the team in 2006 and on the field. But no question, this year has been nothing short of a disaster.

[ToyCannon]

19.  7
Really, you don't care about Furcal, Saito, Ethier, Wolf, Betemit, and shockingly the 6th best LF in the NL this year?

[Greg Brock]

20.  Furcal was a good signing. I stand corrected, BH. I wasn't thrilled about the Nomar signing last year, he gave us a nice year, so there's that. But then giving him a two year contract when Loney was waiting sort of mitigates that (in my mind). Gonzo is fine. He's been good, and I'm pleased with his performance, but it's not what I'd call a master stroke of a signing.

[ToyCannon]

21.  13
If you want to carry the Depo average VORP a step further just figure out every player brought to the Dodgers by Depo, then calculate the average VORP based on how they are doing right now, no matter where they are. Don't forget to include the 0 vorp for Choi,Edwards, Grabowski and company since none of them are even in the major leagues two years later.

[Sushirabbit]

22.  17,
I think whatever GMs do, it's always a gamble, however informed, mis-informed, or un-informed. And we don't what information they have or use. It was gamble on Saito, just like SChmidt. One worked out, and one has not, but (tenuously) might still have value. Even he who shall remain nameless was OK last night... for the first time in my watching him.

[Eric Stephen]

23.  Maybe tonight's the night Loney passes Marlon Anderson...

Over 2006-2007, Marlon Anderson leads all Dodger batters with a 162 OPS+ (minimum 100 PA). All-time slugger James Loney stands at 160.

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/FT2T

[ToyCannon]

24.  15
Why only partial, Depo gets the good year in 2005 the health impaired year in 2006 and Ned gets the age decline of 2007.

[ToyCannon]

25.  22
Hardley a gamble, he was a non-roster invitee.

[ToyCannon]

26.  23
The best way for Loney to pass Marlon is for Marlon to get more at bats.

[Eric Stephen]

27.  Tomorrow will be interesting. With the Dodgers facing a lefty in Randy Johnson, it's a perfect opportunity to begin the "Rest Pierre Every Few Days" project. That said, Ethier will probably be the odd man out though.

[bhsportsguy]

28.  Actually Brazoban was part of the deal that sent Brown to NY with Jeff Weaver so that should go under Evans.

So Evans is now -.2 VORP.

Which leaves DePo with the guy who was part of the worst trade ever (Penny).

The guy who admitted that his personal life influenced his pitching in 2005. (Lowe)

And, Mr. Warmth (Jeff Kent).

DePo's guys do have the highest average salary but only because Ned can sprinkle in the Ramon Martinezes and Betemits with the Pierres and Schmidts.

[Greg Brock]

29.  27 BH and I talked about that last night. Today is a good opportunity to play Betemit and Abreu, and rest Kent and Nomar against the righties. Tomorrow, against the Unit, Kent and Nomar go back in, the guy that plays CF should sit against Unit, and Kemp can play CF (I think Kemp will get absolutely owned by Randy Johnson, but it should be fun to watch).

[Jon Weisman]

30.  28 - Thanks.

[Eric Stephen]

31.  29 Maybe Kemp can recreate the Big Unit hat tip he gave to McGwire after Big Mac hit a HR that went about 800 feet in the Kingdome.

I think that's how the Kingdome was imploded (IM-plode?)...McGwire just kept hitting balls at it.

[Greg Brock]

32.  31 That McGwire homer is the biggest bomb not named Ishtar that I've ever seen. It was like hitting a golf ball with an aluminum bat.

[JoeyP]

33.  This just confirms that Penny/Lowe/Martin are the entire team.

Its amazing that 1 pitcher can make the difference between being in contention, not being---and Penny is that guy for the Dodgers. All I can say is that he better keep it up in the 2nd half, or the Dodgers will inevitably fall out of contention.

[ToyCannon]

34.  33
Or someone else will step it up. It wasn't long ago that you said our season was done when Schmidt went down the 1st time.

[JoeyP]

35.  If you want to carry the Depo average VORP a step further just figure out every player brought to the Dodgers by Depo, then calculate the average VORP based on how they are doing right now, no matter where they are.

If you're going to do that, we might as well average the VORP of the players that DePo would have brought to the Dodgers, since Edwards, Grabowski were not long-term plans.

Perhaps average the Valentin, Drew Vorps in there.

Take it a step even further. VORP Russell Branyan, Kouz, Heath Bell, Mike Barrett too--guys that were brought in by the Padres probably by DePodesta.

[Hythloday]

36.  33 - So it is possible for Penny to fall off, but not for other pitchers to heat up?

[bigcpa]

37.  As of yesterday Boston is sitting their $9M/year bust (Lugo), and the upgrade is to... Alex Cora. It took an 0-29 string to get him out the lineup.

[JoeyP]

38.  Or someone else will step it up. It wasn't long ago that you said our season was done when Schmidt went down the 1st time.

I still think it is (as far as not winning the division=done), bc the Dodgers arent going to go 28-4 in Brad Penny starts all year.

[bluegold]

39.  33. Weren't they talking about trading away Penny in the pre-season, now that they had Schmidt? You're right, a Penny-less Dodgers team would be deep-doodle at this time.

[Eric Stephen]

40.  Has anything surfaced about Penny being hurt in the second half of 2006? Last year's post ASB performance was putrid (6-7, 6.25 ERA, average 5.3 IP/start, opponents hitting .317/.369/.511) but if Penny is healthy I don't see any reason not to expect a solid second half from him. He might not go 21-2, but I'm not worried about Penny.

[Tangled Up in Blue]

41.  9,13 Ned has also rid the team of some of his own bad acquisitions so it can be argued that his average is inflated as well.

[JoeyP]

42.  33 - So it is possible for Penny to fall off, but not for other pitchers to heat up?

Which ones are going to heat up hotter, than Penny cooling down cooler...?

[ToyCannon]

43.  Speaking of mammoth shots did anyone read the http://thesoulofbaseball.blogspot.com/ stuff on Bo Jackson. It is now the 3rd entry down in the blog. I always regretted not seeing Jackie Robinson but I was lucky enough to watch Bo play both baseball and football and he is the one player in both sports who I stopped doing whatever I was doing to watch when he was involved. Of every injury that has occurred since I've been watching sports the one I regret the most is Bo's career ending one.

[D4P]

44.  The average score of a Dodger game started by Brad Penny in 2007 is:

Dodgers 5.5
Opponents 2.2

The average score of a Dodger game not started by Brad Penny in 2007 is:

Dodgers: 4.1
Opponents: 4.5

[bluegold]

45.  The only pitcher I saw heating up in the past week was Edwin Jackson.

[Humma Kavula]

46.  7 Well, I cared about Joel the Destroyer. He was the first minor leaguer I really rooted for -- never really paid attention before him -- and his slump and subsequent trading was disappointing.

I still care about him, but not as much... only to the point where every now and then I try to check on how he's doing.

I recognize that if things stay the way they are, the amount that I care will wane and wane until I get to the point where I say, "Whatever happened to Joel the Destoryer?"

[bigcpa]

47.  Googling that McGwire HR off Unit I found a good piece on Slate.

The Myth of the 500-Foot Home Run
http://www.slate.com/id/2095/

[ToyCannon]

48.  42
Nobody, but with JP, Furcal, and Nomar not just playing below expectations but below historical averages and with the infusion of Loney and Kemp I expect the offense to make up for when Penny slows down.
Penny has been great but it is not like we've won each of his games by one run.

[bluegold]

49.  44. So the road to the World Series is for Penny to start every game. Or for the Dodgers to average 4.6 runs for a non-Penny game. I don't know which one is harder to accomplish.

[Hythloday]

50.  42 - You don't need 1 pitcher heating up, you can have the rest of the rotation improving. This is not unreasonable as Kuo and Billz are certainly improvements over Hendy and Tomko. An improved offense will also help balance out any cooling down on the defensive side.

[ToyCannon]

52.  46
Take heart, he's been heating up lately. Has an 885 OPS in June.
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/

[Greg Brock]

51.  Brad Penny for MVP?

[Greg Brock]

53.  I can't believe Slate wrote a contrarian article.

Did not see that one coming.

[ToyCannon]

54.  So if your an avowed contrarian and a magazine is devoted to writing contrarian articles, is it contrarian to agree with them or should you disagree with them to maintain your contrarianism?

[Greg Brock]

55.  54
Liking Slate would be buying into the contrarian hype. It's too hip a contrarian site for an iconoclast like me ;-)

[D4P]

56.  And if you're the kind of person who questions authority, do you or do you not obey a bumper sticker telling you to question authority?

[Bob Timmermann]

57.  47
I knew that article would be by John Pastier.

Some people are really protective of the length of home runs. So are people about how far away Willie Mays was when he caught Vic Wertz's drive in the 1954 WS. I've seen statements that Mays was 460' from home when he made the catch, but more conservative estimates say he was no more than 410', although he obviously kept running after the catch.

A Mickey Mantle biographer claimed that in 1951, Mantle, while playing in an exhibition game at USC, hit a home run that went over the fence at Bovard Diamond and then crossed a football practice field behind it. This would have been over 650'.

I checked four different newspaper accounts of the game and not one writer mentioned that Mantle hit a particularly long home run.

[bryanf]

58.  I've been thinking about a chart like this. A trade geneology would be interesting, though it looks like the majority of these were free-agent signings.

[robohobo]

59.  44. Penny is hitting .241 with 3 runs scored and 3 RBI.

[Greg Brock]

60.  The Mantle home run off the facade, still on the way up, is the one that I always hear about. I can't remember which documentary mobbed the home run, but here's a website that talks about it:

http://www.themick.com/10homers.html

[Bob Timmermann]

62.  60
It's a frieze, not a facade.

[Marty]

61.  The Jackson homerun in the All-Star game in Detroit is the one I always remember.

[D4P]

63.  Penny is hitting .241 with 3 runs scored and 3 RBI

Not to mention:

VORP (bat)

Penny: 3.5
Pierre: -0.3
Nomar: -5.7

I guess Penny has helped himself with the bat quite a bit thus far.

[D4P]

64.  It's a frieze, not a facade

Don't get Bob started.

[Bob Timmermann]

65.  64
It's a day for contrarians!

[Greg Brock]

66.  65 No it's not.

[Eric Enders]

67.  I'm sure Robert Adair would be happy to explain why a home run off the frieze that was still going up is physically impossible. Of course, a home run off the facade would be even more physically impossible.

[regfairfield]

68.  Same numbers from 2006:

Ned: 235.7
DePo: 158.2
White: 71.2
Other: 13
Evans: 11

[regfairfield]

69.  Same numbers from 2006:

Ned: 235.7
DePo: 148.2
White: 71.2
Other: 13
Evans: 11

[bryanf]

70.  During the off season a lot was made of signing Nomar because the Dodgers lost Drew. Some might blame Depo for allowing that clause in Drew's contract. Some might blame Ned for feeling Nomar was the right replacement. Some might blame Evans just because they didn't like James Baldwin.

I guess my point is to broaden Jon's statement: "At a minimum, credit for [insert your feelings about the state of the Dodgers here]...should be shared."

[regfairfield]

71.  Same numbers from 2006:

Ned: 235.7
DePo: 148.2
White: 71.2
Other: 13
Evans: 11

[bryanf]

72.  During the off season a lot was made of signing Nomar because the Dodgers lost Drew. Some might blame Depo for allowing that clause in Drew's contract. Some might blame Ned for feeling Nomar was the right replacement. Some might blame Evans just because they didn't like James Baldwin.

I guess my point is to broaden Jon's statement: "At a minimum, credit for [insert your feelings about the state of the Dodgers here]...should be shared."

[Eric Enders]

73.  71 That fits nicely with my already-existing notion that DePodesta was somebody who carefully planned for the long-term, while Colletti likes to go for the short-end payoff.

Of course, I could just be full of it.

[Greg Brock]

74.  Yes, but do curveballs actually curve?

I say no.

[Bob Timmermann]

75.  74
Silly boy, curve balls just Bx and pFx.

[Telemachos]

76.  Hmm, I wonder what the numbers from 2006 might be.

[Jon Weisman]

77.  72 - Yeah, my post really is meant to highlight the different cooks, rather than single out the top chef.

[Sushirabbit]

78.  So what are DT's recommendations for scorebooks?

[SG6]

79.  I'm not quite clear on VORP, but if it doesn't factor in player salary, shouldn't salary be acknowledged somehow? Say, VORP per million dollars spent? Does it really take a talented GM to sign Arod for 10/$250 - or just a big pocketbook?

[Bob Timmermann]

80.  78
You can make one from an Excel spreadsheet, a photocopier, a stapler, and six sticks of gum.

Just make sure you buy one that has a lot of spaces to fill in people in the #9 slot.

[Greg Brock]

81.  78 Oh, man. That's right in Bob's wheelhouse.

[Sushirabbit]

82.  I should add that, I'm thinking about getting one for keeping a record of my son's games T-ball now (who may or may not be starting fall ball) and then also one for mostly the Nashville Sounds.

[D4P]

83.  80
Maybe Bob won't see "The Revenge of the Nerds" because he fears it will hit too close to home...

[silverwidow]

84.  White didn't have anything to do with Kuo. He was signed in 1999 (three years before White became scouting director).

[mountainmover]

85.  ... proof again that figures do lie.

If Edwards, Nakamura and others acquired by DePo were on included, the stats would be different. It's appples to oranges to compare the past Paul to the present Ned. Run the numbers again in two years. Then, you have apples to apples.

[Jon Weisman]

86.  84 - Okay, thanks.

85 - I made the caveats to the chart abundantly clear. It's only about this year. As others have shown - read the comments above yours - the numbers would differ greatly at different times.

So what exactly is the lie?

[Jon Weisman]

87.  So who gets credit for Kuo?

[Bob Timmermann]

88.  87
I believe it goes to Xeifrank.

[Eric Enders]

89.  87 Ed Kreech was the scouting director then, although I think Acey Kohrogi, the Dodgers' Director of Asian Operations, had more to do with signing Kuo.

[jasonungar07]

90.  Anyways, I can't think of many things in life other than the obvious that are better than going from watching Tomko warm up in a tie game to Saito coming in with first place on the line in a matter of minuets.

Beautiful.

I am also just feeling bad for Nomar. 8 runners left on base, being dropped from 3rd to 6th, being moved from first to third to account for a 22 year old, 0-10 over the last two games, swinging at ball 5 twice.

Even Vinny feels bad for him. It's like watching your puppy get old and now he is bouncing into furniture. Someone in the other comments said even his pre shot (pre hitting?) routine is a little lackluster...I noticed that too and just thought it was me.

Now I feel apathy towards him.

[Eric Enders]

91.  89 Turns out I spelled Ed's name wrong. It starts with a C. Although what the heck, he deserves to have it misspelled. After his years of franchise-wrecking drafts for the Dodgers, you'll be happy to know that has been presiding over the Pirates' acclaimed string of recent first-round picks.

[Jon Weisman]

92.  91 - So it's Ced? Or Cd?

[Sushirabbit]

93.  80, thanks, but I'm less interested in re-inventing the wheel than when I was younger. :-) Plus, I've found that I inevitably loose those that aren't bound. I had this same issue with music. It's VERY annoying to be playing something and find you're missing the 5th sheet. And with my son, I was thinking about doing all his games, which means I need something that will last awhile. I've thought about going with a custom note book, but I really like the spiral bound kind.

[Telemachos]

94.  90 Nomar will get out of his slump, though. He may not have any power, but if he's spraying singles around with some regularity, he'd still be useful as a #6 (given that he almost assuredly won't drop further in the lineup, nor leave entirely unless he gets injured).

[D4P]

95.  I just visited a sub shop operated by a Greek couple, located across the street from my hotel in Wilmington, DE. One of the "Breakfas" sandwiches on their menu is "Scrapple egg cheese".

[Jeff Zellman]

96.  If the Dodgers win the World Series then DePodesta should get a ring. I doubt they'll give him one though.

[bryanf]

97.  If the Dodgers win the World Series then DePodesta should get a ring. I doubt they'll give him one though.

Why? There are three players left over from his time as GM. I don't see how he deserves a ring if the Dodgers win the WS.

If you get fired from your job and something you created there makes them a ton of money, you don't get to see any of it. That's what being fired is...

[robohobo]

98.  I noticed that Loney changed the trigger motion on his swing from last year. He used to have a herky-jerky right knee before his swing. He seems to have done away with it and his swing looks much smoother/less effort on the front end. Of course I only see him in the highlights provided by MLB Dodgers.com

Has anyone else noticed this? Has it changed since spring training? If so, is it the minor league hitting instructor that helped or Bill Mueller? (not that I expect a definitive answer, more just thinking out loud)

[Penarol1916]

99.  95. Doesn't North Carolina have "Scrapple Egg & Cheese?" I thought that was pretty common in the south?

[D4P]

100.  99
I've never heard of "Scrapple egg cheese."