The Pierre Paradox

The Juan Pierre debate is already old, aging like Ralph Macchio in that made-for-TV movie about that disease that ages you ahead of your time.

Know what I'm saying?

It's become one of those things. People not only disagree but disagree over and over again.

Pierre is that same intersection where people crossed paths over Hee-Seop Choi and J.D. Drew. It's worlds-colliding stuff. You try to rest your case, and you can't. If you think the Pierre signing was a mistake, you say so, and that's that - until some other writer extolls Pierre's virtues and you ... fight ... it ... but ... you can't help but respond.

And then if you're a Pierre paisan, you might come to this site and read comment after comment bashing Pierre and hold your tongue until ENOUGH! You see value in Pierre instead of an abyss, and you say so.

Essentially, it's something we have to live with. Pierre's every success or failing, at-bat after at-bat, stolen-base attempt after stolen-base attempt, will become evidence for and against - with each side claiming ownership of the big picture.

I offer no counsel except to suggest that everyone resist the deification or damnation of Pierre when they can, since there will be plenty of both whether we like it or not, and that people on both sides try to keep perspective. To oversimplify, that means understanding that however bad you think Pierre is, he does some things of value, and that however good you think Pierre is, listen when people outline his limitations.

I think the Pierre signing was a mistake, but I'll be rooting for him to prove me wrong while I also root for something even better to come to the Dodger lineup. It's not much of a juggle to keep that much of an open mind.

This much I know: Pierre is not worth rending garments over. His name is already becoming as polarizing as Drew and Choi - because people just saw different things in them in ways beyond convincing - and it's just not worth the angst. Drew and Choi taught us that these debates come and, almost thankfully, they go.

Comments

[Daniel Zappala]

1.  Ahh! I finally get around to commenting in the previous thread and there's a new one. Yes, I get caught at this far too often as well. I will not repost it here, since it couldn't possibly have been worth saying twice. But you can read it if you want.

[Robert Fiore]

2.  There's a debate? I thought the consensus was overwhelmingly negative, with the only significant dissent coming from Ned Colletti.

I expect the Dodgers to be paying a couple of million dollars per year to have him playing somewhere else in a couple of years.

[Jacob L]

3.  As Darren Dreifort once taught us, even five years is not forever.

[scareduck]

4.  Limitations in mirror are much closer than they appear.

There is just no excuse for giving anyone like Pierre -- who has twice led the league in outs, and placed second two other times besides -- the sort of contract Colletti has given him.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/Outs_leagues.shtml

This is no small achievement. It is reflective of a terrible offensive approach. Speaking as someone who spent, along with my Cubs fan wife, a good part of last year wasting at bats, I say this to those hoisting rose-colored-glasses: you will see. You will see. And you will want to pierce your eyeballs with your own hands once you do.

[bhsportsguy]

5.  Really, I expected more on my analysis on the Dodgers starting pitching order I posted and my favorite Taxi episodes, who knew the pull Willie Davis has over on DT. :)

I just post to get responses, we all have one goal in mind, okay two, a World Series title and less than 3 innings (on Opening Day and free bobbleheads nights) to get a hot dog at the Stadium.

[scareduck]

6.  4 - that should read "spent ... a good part of last year WATCHING HIM waste at bats ...".

[Juan Pierre]

7.  Oh thank you, Jon.

Thank you.

[Daniel Zappala]

8.  however bad you think Pierre is, he does some things of value

This is one of the cool things about baseball. No matter how bad or unacceptable or under-performing he may be, he will still contribute to winning games. There will be times when we will all cheer him because he does something good for the Dodgers.

I remember sitting in the Oakland Colosseum and willing Mike Davis to hit a two-run homer in the last game of the '88 world series. And he did! This is the same Mike Davis who walked before Gibson's shot, so he had two important moments in one series. These great events occurred despite Mike Davis having an OPS+ of 55 that year.

This is what makes baseball a great game.

[scareduck]

9.  2 - without a doubt.

[bhsportsguy]

10.  On a more pleasant note, Keith Law said today on his ESPN chat that he thinks Russell Martin is a .285/15-20 HR guy with lots of walks and doubles.

On a more ominous note, he said that if the Dodgers lose because Luis Gonzalez got 200 at bats that Matt Kemp should have gotten, Ned Colletti should be ashamed (or words to that effect).

[Jacob L]

11.  4 Pierre's perennial prodigious out-making is, obviously, a fuction of being healthy and batting lead off, among other things. Its a counting stat.

Making outs is a bad thing, no doubt. I just wonder if sometimes we make a bit much of that stat.

[Greg Brock]

12.  So, is this the thread in which we eviscerate Pierre for one, glorious last time? Or is it the thread in which we agree to kill the Pierre-hate? Or both?

And I'm still laughing at Rob's post.

[Steve]

13.  among other things

But the among other things category includes the fact that he can't hit.

[Jacob L]

14.  13 No argument. My point is basically that the universe of potential league leading out makers is basically limited to guys who are regular leadoff hitters who stay healthy.

I would lead the league in outs, save for big league managers not writing my name in the 1 hole every day. Easily. Unless I get hurt.

[Jacob L]

15.  My point other basic point is that I can basically use the word basically several times in one sentence.

Christ, I sound like Rick Monday.

[trainwreck]

16.  We also know he can't rap well either.

[stopthebeachballs]

17.  OT: A few days ago someone mentioned putting together a DT Roto league. Since I'm not willing to sort through the thousands of comments in the past couple of weeks, could someone just email me the details (romans77 at hotmail dot com)?

[Xeifrank]

18.  Same as #2 and #9.
vr, Xei

[Bill Crain]

19.  13
Don't forget he can't walk either.

I wonder what Ned was thinking about when he said Pierre gets on base "an awful lot."

Maybe he's a master of under-appreciated "hit-by-pitch" maneuver.

[Steve]

20.  I wonder what Ned was thinking about when he said Pierre gets on base "an awful lot."

He was thinking about how much people love him, which is always what he's thinking about.

[Sam DC]

21.  Sort of interesting skirmish in the old media v. new media wars.

With a really fine title.

http://tinyurl.com/3e3m3r

[Jacob L]

22.  According to the Dodgers website, Takashi Saito is looking for help selecting "his song." (presumably to play on the p.a. while he warms up - I didn't actually read the entry)

How about "Your Song?"

[bhsportsguy]

23.  Choi=DePo
Juan Pierre=Ned

That equation is much more complicated than that but I think for some, it illustrates the main problems with both GMs.

The difference is that Ned also got to hire a manager who will play his guys (certain relief pitchers notwithstanding).

[Greg Brock]

24.  21 I've been following the Sam Smith/Blogger thing very intently.

And the DC Sports Bog is ridiculously good. One of the best merging of new and old sports media in the country. Credit to the WaPo for being ahead of the curve.

[Bill Crain]

25.  20
Now you're talking. We need to stop rehashing this old-hat Juan Pierre debate and get on to something new and interesting, something I really enjoy:

Colletti v. Depodesta!

[Greg Brock]

26.  Can't we ever talk about Muhammad Ali vs. Anti-lock brakes?

[Steve]

27.  Pierre and Hendrickson v. Repko and Erickson?

Pass. No difference.

[underdog]

28.  Couldn't have said it better myself, Jon, and thank you.

Now, about that Ralph Macchio movie, The Three Wishes of Billy Grier I believe it was called and it creeped the heck out of me as a young teenager. Then there was "Up the Academy."

15 That could be a conversation all its own - meaningless words sports announcers love to use to death. Three more would be: "unbelievable," "athleticism," and my favorite, "all out." I have more that I can't think of at the moment.

[trainwreck]

29.  22
I would probably use March To The Sea by Pelican.

[trainwreck]

30.  Say goodbye to the number 2 ranking Wisconsin.

[dkminnick]

31.  Everybody like great players who up the numbers, and I wish we had a CF who did that, but I will take some solace and appreciate that JP is one of those first-to-arrive, last-to-leave-type guys.

I also read this weekend (can't remember where) that he is a student of the history of the game. Scoff away, but I have to admit a weakness for those two attributes. Hard worker, loves the game. It will make me root a little harder for him.

(BTW, Jon, you got my son hooked on your site! Thanks for the reply to him - he loved it).

[das411]

32.  7 - Amen.

And for all those who are worried about him, isn't Repko just one injury away from starting in the outfield anyways?

[underdog]

33.  Ooh, I just remembered my all time favorite meaningless word way overused by meaningless sports announcers: "flat out." That phrase must die a slow horrible death.

[Greg Brock]

34.  If Saito uses Yakety Sax as his entrance music, I will name my next illegitimate child (male or female) after him.

[Bob Timmermann]

35.  So the closest comp to Juan Pierre according to bbref is Carson Bigbee.

Bigbee.

Bigbee.

Bigbee.

I just like the name.

And Carson played ball for the Ducks!

[FirstMohican]

36.  I don't think Juan Pierre should make the opening day roster. After he hits .300 from his September callup on, nobody can point to his outstanding - ahem - out totals.

[bhsportsguy]

37.  28 I always thought it was strange that no one really mentions Ralph Macchio stellar performance in "My Cousin Vinny" since Joe Pesci is Ralph Macchio's cousin Vinny.

Sure, Pesci was okay, many still believe that Marisa Tomei's Oscar was a mistake and Fred Gwynne's "Two utes" was repeated hilariously for years and years but Ralphs complex portrayal of NY city boy caught in a massive injustice remains unheralded and uncommented on.

Ralph Macchio, more than the Karate Kid, though how many can say that he was replaced in a sequel by a two time Oscar winner.

[Bob Timmermann]

38.  Juan Pierre can't be sent to the minors without his consent.

[Greg Brock]

39.  Ralph Macchio was a great Johnny in The Outsiders.

But he stole the Karate Kid role from my man Suffering Bruin, and for that, he deserves to burn.

[D4P]

40.  From the previous thread:

Dont cry to me if (Pierre's) steal sparks a game 7 rally in a playoff series.. Repko would trip over himself and get a high ankle sprain.

Career SB%:

Pierre = 73.7%
Repko = 78.9%

[Andrew Shimmin]

41.  Bigbee is not the comparable you want, entering your year 29 season. Although, it would give us hope for 2010.

[Jon Weisman]

42.  37-Macchio was good in KK. But to think you could have been talking about Suffering Bruin. So close.

[Bob Timmermann]

43.  BIG --- bee!

BIG --- bee!

It would be a good name to chant, especially for someone who likes to steal bases.

BIG --- bee!

[bhsportsguy]

44.  Bob, I can't imagine Michigan State students rushing the floor after beating Wisconsin but I did not see the end of the game but under your guidelines can a school that has a couple of NCAA titles ever rush the floor after beating a fellow conference team that happens to be No. 1 in one poll?

[Steve]

45.  Actually, with Repko being better than Pierre and Hendrickson being better than Erickson, it's not a no difference as much as a draw.

[Bob Timmermann]

46.  44
I would give court rushing at East Lansing in that situation a big thumbs down.

Michigan State! You're supposed to be good!

[Greg Brock]

47.  how many can say that he was replaced in a sequel by a two time Oscar winner?

Marlon Brando can.

[trainwreck]

48.  I guess DT is going to start rooting for Larry Bigbie to make the team.

[bhsportsguy]

49.  47 But by an actress?

[Bill Crain]

50.  45
Pierre = expensive free agent
Hendrickson = established veteran acquired in trade for prospect(s)

So then wouldn't Depo's Pierre have been Kent or Drew or Lowe?

The only comp I can think of for Hendrickson is Milton Bradley, but he wasn't an established mediocrity. (Sorry, I know "mediocrity" is generous.)

[das411]

51.  That's Opening Day Starter Derek Lowe!

[bhsportsguy]

52.  23 My point wasn't the type of deal (trade, free agent, etc.) but more the player himself and how he comes to represent the GM.

For now, Ned won't be examined here for Schmidt, Wolf and Nomar, it will be for whatever Juan is doing here and Matt Kemp is doing is Vegas and it will be that way until something happens. Whether that's fair or not is not the issue, that's what comes with the gig.

[Steve]

53.  It's not like Pierre is any better getting paid $300,000. It's not like Pierre is objectionable because he's expensive. He's objectionable becuase he's a bad baseball player.

[Sam DC]

54.  Apparently, Greg Brock moonlights for the Syracuse Crunch ticketing office.

http://www.nbcsports.com/nhl/1084890/detail.html

[Marty]

55.  I don't know about Saito's music, but Hendrickson should be using the Benny Hill theme.

[Greg Brock]

56.  54 My plan was a minor league promotion in which every adult wearing diapers gets in for free.

[Bill Crain]

57.  53
Point taken. I guess we all have our Jose's Cruz to bear.

(I really wanted to use Jose Valentin but the chance to say "Cruz-to-bear" was too good to pass up.)

[trainwreck]

58.  Saito should come out to the Final Countdown.

[D4P]

59.  My plan was a minor league promotion in which every adult wearing diapers gets in for free

"Get back into life, get into the game free!"

[Steve]

60.  I really wanted to use Jose Valentin

[Gouges eyes out with a broken shot glass]

[trainwreck]

61.  First baseball fantasy draft for me tonight. The league seems to be full of Cardinal, Cubs, and Red Sox fans.

Yippee.

[trainwreck]

62.  60
I hope that shot glass is for milk shooters.

[Greg Brock]

63.  58 Saito songs I'm on board with:

Yakety Sax
The Final Countdown
Why can't we be friends
Turning Japanese
It's Raining Men
Poisoning the Pigeons in the Park
Careless Whispers

[GoBears]

64.  Huh. I certainly understand Jon's desire to end the Pierre bashing, (and I say that as one of the first to declare this the End of Days) but I agree with 2 that it hasn't been much of an argument at DT. Mostly the choir preaching to each other.

Obviously, the doofuses in other corners of the sports media world (and Dodger front office) who praise Pierre disagree with the likes of (most of) us, but it's not like we're actually talking to each other.

I see the Pierre intersection as the same as the Drew one (approached from the cross-street), but not like the mud of Choiville. For JP and JD, there wasn't (isn't) any argument about the product, just about its value. For Choi, the real argument was over something not in evidence. It was about potential, and even many of his detractors hereabouts with Tracy would just play the guy (especially ahead of Jason Phillips) to remove all doubt once and for all.

[Bill Crain]

65.  60
Don't do it! If you can't watch the players play you'll lose all your gut instincts and risk turning into one of them google-boy stat-head geeks.

[trainwreck]

66.  63
Careless Whispers, greatest karaoke song to watch.

[bhsportsguy]

67.  46 Be ready with your thumbs down.

Per the AP report of the game.

"The sellout crowd at Breslin Center serenaded the Badgers with a chant of "overrated" as the clock wound down. Students stormed the court at the final horn."

[Bob Timmermann]

68.  63
I also nominate:
Summertime
Beethoven's "Ode to Joy"
The soundtrack to "Koyaanisqatsi"
I Feel Pretty
How Do You Solve a Problem Like Maria?
My Favorite Things (John Coltrane version)
Stonecutters Cut It On Stone
Old Man River
Old Rivers
On Top of Old Smokey
Rocky Top
They Call the Wind "Maria"

[GoBears]

69.  64. Oops, that last line should have said "wished Tracy would just play the guy."

Not that that makes it any more profound...

[Bob Timmermann]

70.  67
I metaphorically scoff at those idiots in East Lansing, MI.

I will turn my back on them.

I have to figure out which way is northeast. OK, wait, done.

[bhsportsguy]

71.  For the record, I just don't like the length of the deal. But other than that, I would certainly be on the left side of the argument. Actually I don't know if this is a Red/Blue, Left/Right type of argument.

Maybe more like Captain Kirk or Captain Picard debate.

[GoBears]

72.  68. Isn't that last one Mariah? Acch, what do I know?

I'm thinking "Pomp and Circumstance." Elgar needs a little love, and I just think the myth of the closer needs subtitles, for the irony-challenged.

[Bob Timmermann]

73.  71
Janeway!

[Dodger Jack]

74.  The Juan Pierre debate is growing stale, so I won't inveigh further.

However, I would like to return to the Money Ball philosophy I raised in the previous thread. Someone posted later that he/she wished that someone who actually read Money Ball would comment on the matter. Other posters took a at stab at summarizing the theme of Michael Lewis's 2003 book.

I read Money Ball, though it has been a couple of years. But I do have the book on my shelf. So I revisited it while sitting next to my wife in the family room as she watched American Idol (gag).

The Money Ball philosophy is not just about management capturing undervalued players. It is about "outsiders . . . exposing the illusions created by the insiders on the field." (p. 62) Among these illusions are that hits and stolen bases or fielding have a significant impact on the game. Money Ball philosophers believe that, "A player's ability to get on base -- especially when he got on base in unspectacular ways -- tended to be dramatically underpriced in relation to other abilities." (p. 128) They believe, as do some of our posters, that, "an attempted steal had to succeed 70 percent of the time before it contributed postively to run totals." (p. 129) And they believe that because the "variance between the best and worst fielders on the outcome of a game is a lot smaller than the variance between the best hitters and the worst hitters" (p. 137) that a poor fielder who hits well more than makes up for his defensive deficiencies.

I don't buy into much of it, but here at least is what Money Ball says.

[Bob Timmermann]

75.  Maria! Maria! Maria!
Yes, they call the wind Maria!

http://tinyurl.com/2z74gp

[Bill Crain]

76.  74
You don't have to believe in anything. No leap of faith is required. All you have to do is follow the arithmetic. Facts is facts.

Moneyball the book is entertaining but not at all authoritative. It was Bill James who was first to do the math and, in my opinion, his writing remains the best exposition of the ideas.

[Andrew Shimmin]

77.  74- Nobody thinks that hits don't have a significant effect on the game. Absolutely nobody. Most people acknowledge that fielding has a significant effect on the game, even though nobody has a great system for measuring it, or comparing players' fielding. The stolen base animus is strong here, but not without reason, and it's not absolute.

I think the first part of the line, that you omit, from your third quote shouldn't be omitted: "The math of the matter changed with the situation, but, broadly speaking, an attempted steal had to succeed. . ."

There isn't anything to disagree with, here. It's just math. It's fuzzy math, since the book is not a statistical abstract. But there's not a way to argue against it, that I can think of. Historically, stolen bases do not lead to great increases in scoring, and CS do significantly decrease expected runs scored. So much so that, except with a very high rates of success, stolen base attempts have done more harm than good.

[Xeifrank]

78.  Cubs vs Red Sox in the finals of the Simulation Madness tournament.
Cubs defeated the Mets 4 games to 2.
Red Sox over the Twins 4-3 after being down 3-0
vr, Xei

[Jon Weisman]

79.  I don't know if I've ever disagreed with GoBears, but there was tons of argument about what Drew did. One side would cite some stats, for example, and another side would plainly say they didn't matter. Just like people will with Pierre.

"Drew choked in the clutch."
"Drew OPSed .900 in the clutch."
"Those are just stats."
"Grrrrr."

Pierre, like Drew, represents a clash of viewpoints, and that will affect perceptions no matter what he does.

In any case, the point isn't about how much of a debate there was on DT. The point is the vicious circle we're in: someone in mainstream press compliments Pierre, I or DT commenters point out the flaws of the compliment, someone goes overboard with the criticism, another DT commenter points that out overboardness ... repeat. And I'd just like a way out, but I don't see it.

[Andrew Shimmin]

80.  79- If you think murdering D4P would help, just say that word and it'll be done.

[Ken Arneson]

81.  Well, I could program a way out. Say some magic word, and poof! 5-game suspension. Second offense, pow! 10-game suspension. Etc.

I was actually thinking about doing something like that for all those "first post!"ers, because it's getting tiresome:

if (comment == 1 && text =~ /first/i) {
suspendUser();
}

[ornette]

82.  68.

"My Favorite Things" (Coltrane version)

is reserved for

RUSSELL NATHAN COLTRANE JEANSON MARTIN JR.

[Steve]

83.  But there's not a way to argue against it

Well, there's logic and rhetoric, of which on this argument we are treated to a great deal of the latter and very little of the former.

[das411]

84.  Ken, did that take you several hours to tell your comp to program? ;)

But really Jon, can the secret suspension word be "bullethead"? Am I not the only person on here that finds that mildly offensive?

[D4P]

85.  You can't win, Andrew. If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.

[D4P]

86.  BTW: It just occurred to me that "Star Wars" turns 30 years old this year. Crazy.

[Greg Brock]

87.  If "Bullethead" is offensive, I'm really glad "Jesus Q. Hitler" didn't catch on.

[Jon Weisman]

88.  We'd have to ban interviews with Maury Wills too, then. Don't know that we have that power. And it's nothing personal against Maury.

[Steve]

89.  I dislike Bullethead because it carries in it the seeds of mischief. Bullets=speed=useless stolen bases. I much prefer the more correctly descriptive JtO.

[Icaros]

90.  Are you talking about Jesus Quasimodo Hitler or Jesus Quiznos Hitler?

[kecster]

91.  I'm kinda neutral regarding Pierre in general, but here's what confuses me: Why is it so many people will bash a player like Pierre, but praise a player like David Eckstein? Offensively, both are similar (nearly identical OBP, while Pierre has a higher career AVE and SLG%) and defensively, they both have the "good effort, good range, weak arm" tag. It seems the only real difference is that Pierre steals 4 or 5 times as many bases. The obvious response would be that Eckstein was the heart of the Cardinals' Championship last year. Weren't people saying the same thing about Pierre after 2003? Isn't that why so many teams were clamoring to get him when the Marlins were shopping him? Am I missing something?

[Greg Brock]

92.  Can you imagine how much grief Quasimodo got on the playground?

The kid had it rough enough without that name. Couldn't Frollo have named him "Phil" or something? Sheesh.

[Greg Brock]

93.  91 Pierre and Eckstein in one sentence...

:-0

[Jon Weisman]

94.  91 - Who bashes Pierre but praises Eckstein?

[Greg Brock]

95.  I think Toycannon kind of likes Eckstein, but that might just be a desire to see my head explode. Canuck may like him as well, though I'm not sure if I'm remembering correctly.

[Icaros]

96.  Eckstein and Pierre both sit on high chairs in the Pantheon of Most Maligned by Stat-Minded Baseball Fans. In fact, the group is meeting this week, and it's Darin Erstad's turn to bring the popcorn.

[D4P]

97.  Why is it so many people will bash a player like Pierre, but praise a player like David Eckstein?

What is it that makes a complete stranger dive into an icy river to save a solid gold baby? Maybe we'll never know.

[dzzrtRatt]

98.  94 Bush?

[Greg Brock]

99.  Leave Gavin Rossdale out of this.

[D4P]

100.  Pierre and Eckstein: It's the little things that kill